Once again, oil is being wielded as a weapon, not only to boost revenue for producers, but also to achieve geopolitical goals. Where does it go from here? Can we see an end to this particular cycle of production cuts and rising prices? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to address these questions.
When we began the year, there was a general consensus that a recession was near. So far, the economy appears to have avoided a downturn. Over the past few months, several Confluence Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly reports have covered various aspects regarding why that is, and this week Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to recap these reports and discuss any changes that have emerged since they were written. But first, Bill answers the question, "Why is recession forecasting so difficult?"
This week's episode examines the apparent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a member of Putin's inner circle and head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary operation. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the rumors surrounding Prigozhin's demise, including the likely culprits and their potential motives, and the broader ramifications of this situation.
In recent quarters, investors have focused heavily on issues such as consumer price inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Now, however, rising fiscal deficits and congressional bickering over the federal debt have brought the attention back to fiscal policy. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss the government's recent fiscal trends and what that means for the economy and investing going forward.
Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sits down with Phil Adler to discuss Great Power competition and the economics of national defense. In the absence of Great Power competition, defense spending is usually concentrated on defense companies. However, under conditions of Great Power competition, a “whole-of-economy” approach to national defense tends to evolve. Civilian companies become more involved in the defense effort, and societies need to make the “guns and butter” tradeoffs. Patrick and Phil discuss how the current iteration of national defense spending will likely be different than what was seen during the Cold War.
A U.S. recession due to higher interest rates no longer seems imminent as the rate of inflation has been falling and the unemployment rate is near a 60-year low. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss one of the main reasons we have avoided a recession so far – the tight labor market – and whether we can expect labor conditions to remain tight in the months ahead.
Fixation on headline economic numbers can lead to inaccurate conclusions. A recent example is the performance of major stock indexes, which it turns out has been greatly influenced lately by a very small number of stocks. Overreliance on headline numbers can also be costly for investors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to dig deeper into one of our favorite headline numbers: the unemployment rate. What is it really telling us?
In Confluence's Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook, they recognize China's youth unemployment and China's debt problem as two major issues for investors to keep tabs on in the months ahead. But there's one significant negative trend in China which may be an underlying cause of many other problems the country faces and could be beyond its ability to solve. In this episode, Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the causes and impact of China's collapsing population.
Are higher interest rates bearish for risk assets? This may seem to be an easy question, but perhaps the answer is not so simple. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to broaden our perspective.
Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash sit down with Phil Adler to discuss the firm’s mid-year geopolitical update. This edition’s theme is “Welcome to the Polycrisis.” Confluence’s macro team lays out the large number of geopolitical concerns that could affect markets for the rest of 2023. This podcast accompanies the in-depth Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report also published on July 10, 2023.
Economic data lately can seem unusually confusing. Even though inflation has raised the cost of living significantly compared to two years ago, the economy continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low even as some big companies announce job cuts. And while economic indicators point to a slowdown in the months ahead, the stock market doesn't seem to believe it. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to talk about one data point that appears to be showing very strong numbers: private nonresidential construction.
We may be getting a glimpse of what artificial intelligence (AI) can do and the tasks it can perform...but we may be slower to understand exactly HOW it does it. Becoming familiar, at least on a basic level, of the HOW might help us understand AI's potential and limitations and might even guide us toward proper investment decisions.
The S&P 500 has performed very well in 2023, but market internals paint a less healthy picture. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us to discuss the stock market's uneven performance so far this year and what this may portend.
For many years now, the need for oil has been a primary driver of foreign policy, not just for the U.S. but for nations around the world. For the U.S., a dominant dollar has been a key tool in the past to assure an adequate supply of oil, but today the energy landscape is changing. To accompany the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on June 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss how the U.S. dollar policy seems to be changing as well and possible investment implications.
Underinvesting can have serious long-term consequences, and in the U.S., government underinvestment in one key area is a worrisome trend. Investors might be surprised by just how much government spending contributes to overall GDP. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the latest numbers.
A new national security law in China is fresh evidence that the global investment environment is changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how investors can expect this to play out, and potential winners and losers.
New home sales have been trending higher lately, even with mortgage rates rising rapidly in recent months. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why and discuss whether it's worthwhile to mine this trend for investment opportunities.
For almost eight decades now, investors have faced a risk that the world's great powers could come into conflict and unleash devastating nuclear war. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses China's new efforts to build up its nuclear arsenal and why this will likely produce not only risks but also opportunities.
The yield curve is inverted, and recession is in the forecast. Recent history suggests investment managers facing these circumstances nearly always recommend longer-term bonds within the fixed income space, but Confluence Investment Management says this time is different. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why.
A recent agreement brokered by China represents a warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady says this event is noteworthy on several levels. For one thing, it alters the international diplomacy gameboard, and investors may want to keep a close eye on how oil prices react.
Stay up to date
For any inquiries, please email us at hello@podcastworld.io
