Economics, politics and Marmite – 2016 – an unusual year in focus

Podcast Summary

• UK's historic EU referendum in 2016: The UK's decision to leave the EU caused economic volatility and political uncertainty, but there's optimism for a better future

  Learning from this episode of "This is Money" podcast is that 2016 was a year full of unexpected events, most notably the UK's decision to leave the European Union. This historic vote marked a turning point for the country and resulted in significant economic volatility. The outcome of the referendum led to a leadership battle, with Theresa May ultimately becoming prime minister. The aftermath also saw global acts of terror, further adding to the uncertainty and instability. Despite the challenges, there is a sense of optimism that the UK can thrive on its own and that the new leadership will help build a better future for the country.

• Political surprises, economic recoveries, and underdog sports victories marked 2016: Donald Trump's election win, Syria crisis, oil price resurgence, Leicester City's Premier League victory, Queen's 90th birthday, Britain's Olympic success, and forgotten populations' plight were significant events in 2016

  The world experienced significant events in politics, economy, and sports during the year 2016. Politically, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election was a surprise, while the humanitarian crisis in Syria continued. Economically, oil prices saw a resurgence after a long period of collapse due to a production cut deal among oil-producing nations. Illegally in the UK, these countries colluded to push prices higher. In sports, Leicester City's win in the Barclays Premier League was an unprecedented underdog victory, much like a 5000 to 1 horse in a race. The Queen's 90th birthday and Britain's success at the Olympics were notable positive events. Despite these victories, there were disappointments, such as the collapse of BHS and the impact on thousands of pensions. The forgotten men and women of various countries, including the US and the UK, were a common theme, with promises to make things right and restore greatness.

• Significant events overlooked in 2016 news: Bernie Sanders' concession and UK's 10-year gilt yield hit significant events overlooked in 2016 news, raising questions about populist politics and potential end of ultra-low interest rates respectively.

  That both Simon and Georgie identified significant events of 2016 that received less attention in the news but had a significant impact. For Simon, it was Bernie Sanders' concession to Hillary Clinton in the US presidential race, which raised questions about whether Sanders' populist message and anti-establishment stance could have led to a different outcome. For Georgie, it was the UK government's 10-year gilt yield hitting an all-time low in August, indicating the potential end of the era of ultra-low interest rates and the possibility of fiscal stimulus to drive economic growth. Overall, the conversation highlighted the importance of looking beyond headline news to understand the deeper trends and implications of the year's events.

• Sportsmanship and unity in 2016: Max Whitlock's double gold and Alastair Brownlee's selfless act reminded us of the power of unity and love amidst Brexit's uncertainty. Stay calm and informed as we navigate the challenges ahead.

  The spirit of sportsmanship and camaraderie shone brightly in 2016, as demonstrated by Max Whitlock's double gold medal win at the Olympics and Alastair Brownlee's selfless act at the triathlon. Despite the challenging times, these moments reminded us of the power of unity and love. Brexit, another significant event of the year, sparked intense emotions and uncertainty. Although the decision to leave the European Union came as a surprise to many, it's crucial for us to remain calm and united as a country. While there were various reasons why people voted to leave, the EU's perceived impact on immigration was not the sole driving factor. Instead, some felt that the European project had become a source of frustration for many. In the financial world, the aftermath of Brexit caused turbulence, but it's essential to keep a level head and stay informed as the situation unfolds. As we move forward, it's vital to remember that we are still Great Britain and United Kingdom, and together, we will face the challenges ahead.

• Impact of Brexit on the UK economy and financial markets: Brexit's initial economic impact showed no signs of recession, inflation spikes or crashing house prices, but the exchange rate and economic fundamentals were affected. Uncertainty remains high as negotiations to leave the EU have not started, and the full implications are still unknown. The pound's value may further fall, leading to inflation.

  The outcome of the EU referendum in the UK, which saw a vote to leave the EU, has had significant implications for the economy and financial markets. Despite initial predictions of doom and gloom, the apocalyptic scenarios of recession, rampant inflation, and crushing house prices have not materialized, but the exchange rate and economic fundamentals have been affected. The dust has not yet settled, as the UK has not initiated negotiations to leave the EU, and uncertainty remains high. The decision was a monumental one, and its impact will continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months. The recent behavior of the foreign exchange market suggests that a further fall in the value of the pound is likely, which could lead to increased inflation. However, it's important to note that the situation is complex, and the full implications of Brexit are still unknown.

• Navigating the complexities of Brexit: The Brexit process has highlighted the complexities and challenges of major political changes, and the importance of thoughtful, informed dialogue in shaping the future.

  The conversation around Brexit and its implementation has been marked by uncertainty, unexpected twists, and a lack of clear progress. Despite the vote to leave the EU, the dust has yet to fully settle, with significant challenges and negotiations still ahead. The campaigns leading up to the vote were marked by headline-grabbing scaremongering and a lack of productive discourse, leaving many feeling shocked and uncertain about the decision. The process has exposed deep divisions within the British political landscape, with both Leave and Remain supporters expressing frustration and concern. While some may have made their decision well in advance, others were caught off guard by the suddenness of the referendum and its aftermath. Ultimately, the Brexit process has highlighted the complexities and challenges of navigating major political changes, and the importance of thoughtful, informed dialogue in shaping the future.

• People's frustration and feeling ignored led Brexit vote: Brexit vote was driven by nuanced concerns, not ignorance or poverty, and the use of fear tactics may have backfired

  The Brexit vote was not driven by ignorance or poverty, but rather by people's frustration with the political direction of the world and a feeling of being ignored by those in power. The argument for leaving the EU was nuanced, with valid concerns about the EU's political organization and financial crisis, as well as the benefits of being part of the world's greatest free trading block. The parallel with the Trump election lies in the fact that many people felt ignored and angry, but the arguments for Brexit had more merit than Trump's case. A mistake on the Remain side was the use of project fear tactics, which may have only served to galvanize those who were already inclined to vote to leave. Moving forward, it's important to acknowledge the complexity of the issue and focus on finding a way to balance the benefits and challenges of EU membership.

• Seeing opportunities in EU regulations: Businesses can expand by complying with EU regulations, targeting specific countries based on their standards, and Brexit's impact on currency can make exports more competitive.

  Instead of focusing on the negative aspects of regulations and trade barriers imposed by the European Union (EU), businesses and individuals should recognize the opportunities they present. The EU's red tape, such as lawnmower noise laws, can be seen as a challenge to navigate but also as a chance to expand one's business by complying with the standard across multiple countries. For instance, a lawnmower business can target specific countries with their product based on their noise regulations, increasing their market reach. Brexit, on the other hand, has led to a significant fall in the value of the British pound against major currencies, making exports more competitive but also increasing the cost of imports and potentially hurting the economy outside of London. The FTSE 100, however, has fared well since the Brexit vote due to the strength of its multinational companies. Overall, it's essential to look beyond the red buttons and focus on the positive aspects of regulations and trade to seize opportunities for growth.

• Impact of Unexpected VAT Rate Announcement on Consumers and Economy: The unexpected VAT rate increase led to hidden price hikes in various sectors, benefiting investors with international earnings, while the Bank of England's handling of interest rates is a topic of debate.

  The unexpected announcement of a higher VAT rate by the UK government may have had a more significant impact on consumer spending if communicated clearly. Instead, consumers were left dealing with shrinking product sizes and increased prices in various sectors, such as grocery shopping and travel, which went relatively unnoticed. Economically, the pound's depreciation against the euro and the dollar led to a rise in the FTSE, benefiting investors with international earnings. However, the Bank of England's handling of interest rates and its divergence from the Fed has been a topic of debate, especially given the general criticism of central banks. Despite these economic shifts, it remains to be seen how consumers will react in the coming months.

• Impact of Low Interest Rates on Savers: Savers have been negatively affected by low interest rates, with the best savings rate barely keeping up with inflation. Mortgage holders have benefited, but experts predict a gradual increase in rates in the next year.

  The decision to keep interest rates low after the financial crisis was necessary to save homes and businesses, but it came at the cost of severely impacting savers. The low interest rate environment has been a challenge for savers, with the best rate for easy access currently at 1% which doesn't even beat inflation. The only way rates may start going up is if there is a wave of challenger banks competing with each other, but this is often short-lived. The biggest winners have been those with mortgages, with stonkingly good deals available this year. However, experts predict that rates may start ticking up gradually in the next year. The Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates after Brexit was controversial, but it has since been argued that it made things better, despite the confusion surrounding the right and wrong reasons for the decision. Overall, the low interest rate environment has led to increased questioning of central bankers and the impact on different groups in the economy.

• Interest rates to stay low for savers: Interest rates in the UK are predicted to rise in 2017 but stay low for an extended period, while savers look for alternatives due to low returns and face risks of scams

  Interest rates on instant access savings are not expected to reach 2% in the near future. Savers are looking for alternatives due to low returns, but there's a risk of falling into scams. The Fed in the US has raised interest rates due to inflationary pressures from Trump's policies and a stronger dollar, which could potentially affect the UK if the gap between US and UK interest rates becomes too large. The panelists predict that interest rates in the UK will rise in 2017, but they will likely stay low for an extended period. The economic and geopolitical landscape, including Brexit and terrorism, adds uncertainty to the situation.

• Election of Trump reflects global mood of anger and dissatisfaction: Trump's election as a populist leader inspires potential instability and uncertainty in the world, amidst geopolitical tensions and global challenges

  The election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, despite being a surprise to many, can be seen as a reflection of the global mood of anger and dissatisfaction. This mood, which was also evident in the Brexit vote, has led to the election of populist leaders who promise to challenge the status quo. While Trump could potentially be a good president, the way he was elected, through populist rhetoric and divisive policies, could inspire similar leaders in other countries, potentially leading to more instability and conflict on the global stage. The geopolitical situation, including tensions with Russia and China, terrorism, and global oil prices, already looks dire and could become even more challenging in the coming year. Overall, the election of Trump marks a shift towards more instability and uncertainty in the world.

• Financial stressors include mortgages, student debt, job security, and geopolitical risks: Many individuals face financial stress from various sources including mortgages, student debt, job insecurity, and geopolitical risks, making retirement planning and meeting expenses a significant challenge

  Financial worries, particularly regarding mortgages, student debt, and job security, continue to be a major concern for many individuals. Additionally, geopolitical issues like Russia and Brexit add uncertainty and potential financial risks. Despite some positive developments, such as lower mortgage payments and successful loan applications, the fear of mounting debt and the need to pay off expenses looms large. For some, retirement planning and university expenses for children add to the financial stress. Overall, the financial landscape for individuals remains uncertain and challenging.