Podcast Summary
Biden's Approval Rating Hits Historic Lows, Challenging Democrats in Midterms: Biden's approval rating is low, Democrats face challenges in midterms due to Biden's weak political coalition and strategic missteps, including promises of normalcy and transformation, inflation, gas prices, and Afghanistan withdrawal.
President Joe Biden's approval rating has reached historic lows, with only 39% of Americans approving of his job performance and 70% believing the country is on the wrong track. These numbers pose significant challenges for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, as they often serve as a referendum on the party in power. According to Alex Burns, co-author of the book "This Will Not Pass," Democrats' predicament can be traced back to fundamental weaknesses in Biden's political coalition and a series of strategic missteps. During the 2020 campaign, Biden attempted to appeal to both the political center and the progressive base by promising to be a candidate of normalcy and a transformative president, but this dual approach created tension. The political drag of inflation, gas prices, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan have further weakened Biden's position. These challenges will require Democrats to craft effective campaigns to mobilize their base and compete in the midterm elections.
Biden's Identity Crisis: Uniter or Transformational Leader?: Biden's inability to make tough choices and please all constituencies led to a massive relief package, but also set the stage for future struggles and political instability.
That President Biden's inability to make tough choices and his tendency to please all constituencies led him to propose a massive $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package in the early days of his presidency. This bold move emboldened him to believe that he could be both a uniter and a transformational leader, but it also set the stage for future struggles with progressives and moderates as he failed to deliver on their respective expectations. The relief package, which included vaccine money, aid to states and cities, and generous relief checks, was a significant accomplishment, but it also highlighted Biden's identity crisis and his reluctance to disappoint any major constituency. This pattern continued throughout his first year in office, leading to disappointment among various groups and a sense of political instability.
Democratic Party's Balancing Act During Biden's First 100 Days: Intense internal party disagreements and linkage of infrastructure bill to progressive agenda complicated Biden's efforts to deliver on his promises.
During the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency, the Democratic Party faced challenges in balancing their agenda between infrastructure investments for bipartisan support and progressive reforms for their base. Biden attempted to negotiate separately on both fronts, but intense dissension and distrust within the party made progress difficult. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi linked the passage of the infrastructure bill with the progressive "Build Back Better" agenda, creating a contentious linkage. Biden initially agreed with Pelosi, shocking those involved in infrastructure negotiations. This moment highlighted the disparate governing ambitions within the Democratic Party and the challenges they faced in delivering on their promises.
Biden's Inconsistent Leadership in Infrastructure Bill Talks: Biden's indecisiveness and inconsistent messaging during infrastructure bill negotiations led to missed opportunities for meaningful legislative victories and damaging approval ratings for the administration.
President Joe Biden's approach to governing, as displayed during the infrastructure bill negotiations, was marked by a lack of clear direction and an apparent inability to assert his authority to bring opposing factions together. Biden's inconsistent messaging and failure to take a firm stance on key issues led to a summer-long standoff between progressive and centrist Democrats, resulting in missed opportunities for meaningful legislative victories and damaging approval ratings for the administration. This lack of decisiveness, rooted in Biden's personal characteristics and leadership traits, may have contributed to the eventual passing of the infrastructure bill but left many in the party feeling dissatisfied.
Biden's lack of decisiveness and absence from promoting accomplishments hurts approval ratings: Biden's passive leadership style and lack of transformative vision have led to declining approval ratings, while Democrats focus on tangible accomplishments in midterm campaigns
President Joe Biden's lack of decisiveness about his presidency's direction and his absence from promoting his significant accomplishments have contributed to his declining approval ratings below 40%. Some attribute this to his long tenure in the Senate, where personal relationships and compromise were key. However, his inability to demonstrate a clear commitment to being a transformative president or a unifying figure has left him seen as passive and conventional. Democrats in competitive midterm elections are focusing on the tangible accomplishments of the infrastructure law and its impact on their constituents as their campaign message.
Democrats assert independence on key issues: Despite low approval ratings, some Democrats focus on progress under Biden, while others attack Republicans, leading to a fragmented message ahead of midterms
As President Biden's approval ratings remain low, Democrats are increasingly asserting their independence from the White House on key issues, such as border control and energy policy. This trend, which is more pronounced when a president is unpopular, is leading to a fragmented Democratic message heading into the midterms. Some Democrats are focusing on the progress made under the Biden administration, while others are attacking the Republicans. The White House, while understanding the motivations of these lawmakers, is expressing frustration with the persistent unpopularity of the president despite his accomplishments. Overall, the Democratic message is a mix of highlighting progress and criticizing the opposition.
Democrats contrast themselves from Republicans in midterms: Despite struggles, Democrats push for Build Back Better agenda and contrast themselves from Republicans, but lack a clear positive message for voters in midterms due to earlier unclear vision and lack of decisiveness.
The Democratic argument against the Republican party in the 2022 midterm elections is that they are not Trump and his allies. This message gains power due to the January 6th committee hearings revealing Trump's efforts to overturn the presidential election and inspire an insurrection at the Capitol. However, Democrats have yet to establish a clear positive message for voters, making it challenging to win midterm elections as the incumbent party of an unpopular president. Counterfactuals suggest that if Biden and the Democrats had taken office with a clear vision and spent political capital earlier, they might be in a stronger position today. Despite these challenges, Democrats continue to pursue elements of the Build Back Better agenda, with renewed hope that it could help them in the midterms. Ultimately, the failure to make tough choices earlier and be more decisive has left Democrats uncertain about their positive message for 2022.
Evidence presented at the hearing showed Trump pressured state officials to submit false electors.: Trump and his team pressured state officials with false 'legal theories' to change elector results, causing distress and threats to election workers.
During the fourth hearing of the congressional committee investigating the January 6th attack on the US Capitol, evidence was presented suggesting that former president Trump directly pressured state officials, including Arizona's House Speaker Rusty Bowers, to submit false pro-Trump electors in states won by President Biden. This scheme, which included calls from Trump and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani, was based on a supposed "legal theory" to remove and replace Biden's electors. Bowers refused, citing his oath to uphold the constitution. Local election workers, like Georgia's Shay Moss, testified about the devastating effects of these false claims, including harassment and threats, which have significantly impacted their lives. This experience has left Moss feeling upended, fearful, and second-guessing her actions. The January 6th attack and its aftermath continue to cast a long shadow, underscoring the far-reaching consequences of lies and efforts to undermine democratic processes.
