Introducing: Business of Bees

There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that eventually bursts and sparks disaster. But there are other negative effects from private credit that might already be happening. In a new paper called "The Credit Markets Go Dark," co-authors Harvard Law School professor Jared Ellias and Duke University School of Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay argue that the $1.5 trillion market for private credit is already having a big impact on the economy — and not in a good way. They say that the rise of private credit marks a seismic change for corporate governance and dynamism.

Read More:
Odd Lots Newsletter: The Black Hole of Private Credit
Private Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk That Wall Street Is Fleeing

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Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The goal now, from his perspective, is to prevent further deterioration of the US labor market. His speech didn't delve much into theory or nuance. In this episode, we speak with Peterson Institute President, Adam Posen, who found the speech unsatisfying. He argues that the state of the labor market, while cooling, didn't merit a "rifle shot" approach, such as the one Powell delivered. He explains his concerns and how he sees the risks materializing from here.

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Remember August 5th? That was the day that markets around the world plunged in historic fashion and everyone became an overnight expert on the yen carry trade. But what really is the yen carry trade? How big is it? Who is making the trade? And what is its connection to markets all around the world? On this episode, recorded at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements. He walks us through the mechanics of the trade, what went on in early August, and the lessons we've already learned from it.

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When the Treasury market broke in March 2020, the Federal Reserve intervened in extraordinary fashion. It purchased more than $1 trillion worth of Treasury securities in that month alone. Superficially, this looked a lot like the Quantitative Easing that we came to know during the GFC. But it's purpose was different. This wasn't about depressing the yield curve or providing a form of strong forward guidance. Instead, it was the Fed taking on a role of the "market maker of last resort," so to speak. And yet, despite the different goals, the two different operations look the same and are carried out by the same officials (the members of the FOMC). This creates confusion, cost, and can create a situation where it looks like the Fed is working against itself. On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded in Jackson Hole at the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium, we speak with University of Chicago Booth professor, Anil Kashyap. He presented a paper at the conference proposing a separate tool within the Fed that can handle balance sheet operations for financial stability. We discussed his proposal along with broader questions about the transmission of monetary policy.

Related link: Monetary Policy Implications of Market Marker of Last Resort Operations

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At Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the rate cut cycle is likely to start in September. But of course that just opens more questions. Will it be a 25bps cut? Will it be 50? Could it be two 50s in a row? When does it stop? On today's episode, we speak with Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research. He walks us through his interpretation of Powell's speech and what to look for as the rate cut cycle begins.

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This year’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming marked a big change for US monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell telegraphing the first rate cuts in potentially two years. But what’s it actually like to be a policymaker at one of the most famous economics conferences in the world? And what do central bankers do when they all get together to talk policy? In this episode, we catch up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who describes what it’s like to be at Jackson Hole, what’s discussed and how the annual agenda put together by the Kansas City Fed comes together. We also talk about Powell’s speech and how Barkin is viewing the labor market right now.

Powell’s Pivot Leaves Traders Debating Size, Path of Rate Cuts

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Every year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s a chance for central bankers and other policymakers to talk about issues facing the global economy, debate academic literature, and provide further guidance on the future path of monetary policy. This week’s symposium marked a step change for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell announcing that the “time has come” for rate cuts after years of hikes. So what makes him confident that inflation’s been tamed? And what are the key pressure points to watch out for in the US economy now? On this episode, recorded in Jackson Hole shortly after Powell delivered his speech, we speak with Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene and Mike McKee — both veteran Jackson Hole attendees — about what we just learned.

Read more:
Powell Says ‘Time Has Come’ for Fed to Cut Interest Rates
Full Text of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

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Synthetic risk transfers, in which banks purchase insurance-like protection on some of their loans, is a growing market on Wall Street, with billions worth of deals made in the US last year. But of course, anything with the words "synthetic" and "risk transfer" is probably going to remind people of the 2008 financial crisis, when securitizations of loans blew up and infected the banking system. So what exactly are these new trades? Why do banks want to do them and what are investors getting in return for taking on this risk? In this episode, we speak with Michael Shemi, North America structured credit leader at Guy Carpenter, about what these deals are, how they're structured, and what they say about bank capital and the wider financial system.

Mentioned in this episode:
One of the Hottest Trades on Wall Street, An Etymological Study
JPMorgan’s Risk Swap Ends Up at a Familiar Place: Rival Banks
‘Blind’ Bets on Bank Risk Transfers Have Never Been So Popular

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Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

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The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market.

Read More:
My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken
What’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession?

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Everyone loves to point the finger at the cause of Colony Collapse Disorder; here's what we actually know.

Jerry Hayes is an internationally recognized honey bee expert and columnist for the American Bee Journal.  In this interview, Hayes discusses the causes of Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD), the first time he saw Africanized Honey Bees during the autopsy of a 900 lbs. horse, and the fascinating behavior of honey bees.

Hayes has been featured on the cover of Wired Magazine, featured in books about bees and at one point worked for Monsanto to try to stop the deadly bee parasite: the Varroa Mite.

Everyone who has been in business for a while looks back at when they first started out and thinks "man, if only I knew X, Y or Z when I got started!" It's true, it took me 4 years before I figured out the right and wrong way to grow my real estate business. During those 4 years, I struggled ALOT and had some severe financial problems due to a lack of income. I would have given almost anything to have had someone sit me down and say, "here's the first few things you need to do now that you have your real estate license." 

Luckily, our guest this week is here to do just that! Rick Gonzalez, host of the brand spankin' new Modern Agent Podcast, joins us to talk about the most important "first steps" that a brand new agent or Loan officer should do to start off on the right foot, and have success quickly. Even if you're not a brand new agent, you'll learn real estate business tips that will help you. Especially an agent or loan officer who is rebuilding or re-inventing themselves. 

Be sure to check out Rick's new real estate podcast, the Modern Agent Podcast, at http://www.modernagentpodcast.com

Get access to our database of Facebook Ads for Agents and Lenders that have been proven to generate leads:
https://www.massiveagentsociety.com

Why I Switched to eXp Realty:
https://massiveagentpodcast.com/exp

Discounts and Links to our Favorite Products & Services:
https://massiveagentpodcast.com/resources/

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***********************
RESOURCES :

Referral Network: Claim your market *exclusively* in the new Massive Agent Referral Network - CLICK HERE

Massive Agent Society: my Coaching program for real estate agents that I wish existed when I was starting out as a Realtor. Join the Society HERE

Witly: the fully automated Facebook Ad management system for real estate agents. Get a 14 day free trial HERE

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Buzzsprout: Host your podcast with the same platform we use & get a $20 Amazon Gift Card

BamX: get 10% off with the discount code MASSIVE. You still get everything on nowbam.com and all BAM podcasts (like this one) for free. So, check it out, and use MASSIVE to get your discount on an annual subscription.

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We welcome you to the Photofocus Roundtable podcast, where each month, our panel discusses some current trends and topics on the minds of our panel. This month, we end the year by saying goodbye to the old with, "Grace, Gratitude and Good Riddance." We share what we do when asked to photograph something out of your specialty. Then we end by bringing in the new with some ideas about starting the new year in the photo business.

Thank you Photomatix for sponsoring; click the link to download and try for free.

Art that isn't Photography Shownotes:

• Wayne's Sci-Fi film from the 70s
• Spotify Album by Wayne
• The Youtuber of which Ron's Household is a fan. This one and Haiku the Husky are favorites.

About your hosts

Wayne Chasan is an American living in Spain for decades and creating stunning commercial work, check out his print shop site here.

Richard Raul Guarneros is a product of 30 + years in the offset printing industry, 25 as a print shop owner where quality control was vital to the final product. Check out his work and his workshops on this website.

Ron Pepper is a Bay Area photographer specializing in 360° panoramic images for businesses, destinations, homes, schools and more. He’s a LinkedIn Learning author, mentor and trainer. You can follow him on his website or Instagram.

Rob Moroto is a commercial photographer based in Vancouver Island. From homes to people to businesses, Rob loves showing a different perspective through his lens. He sees depth in every person and every object, no matter how plain they may seem. You can follow him on his website or at CalgaryPhotos.ca.

Want an expired call script that gets results? This is the same script I personally use and my team uses to list and sell thousands of expired listings! 

GET MY FREE SCRIPT BOOK? Access our private FB Group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/584389598727184/about/

MY BIO:
Currently Own and Lead the #1 Real Estate Team in Denver
Sold over $950,000,000 in Residential Real Estate
Made over 50,000 Client Relationships through outbound lead generation
2,500+ Listing Appointments
Currently ranked in the top 1% of all Keller Williams Teams Internationally
One of the Top 1000 agents in the nation by REAL Trends & The Wall Street Journal
United States Army Infantry Veteran
Vice President of Third Way Center Charity Board of Directors

Where else you can find me:
FACEBOOK: https://bit.ly/OfficialBBCFacebookPage
INSTAGRAM: https://bit.ly/BrendanBarticCoaching_Official_Instagram
PODCAST: https://bit.ly/REALTalkBrendanBartic 
LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brendanjbartic/

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