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    • Tensions Escalate on Multiple Fronts: Tech Cold War and Middle East ConflictThe US-China tech conflict intensifies with Huawei ban, Israeli military operation worsens Middle East crisis, and TikTok faces potential US ban, highlighting geopolitical risks for businesses and communities.

      Geopolitical tensions are escalating on multiple fronts. The US government's decision to ban Intel and Qualcomm from supplying semiconductors to Chinese tech giant Huawei over national security concerns adds to the growing tech Cold War between the US and China. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel's military operation in Rafa, Gaza, is causing panic and worsening the humanitarian crisis, as at least 100,000 people have been displaced, and aid agencies warn of insufficient supplies and shelter. Furthermore, TikTok's lawsuit against the US government over the potential ban of the platform adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. These events underscore the complex and interconnected nature of global issues and the potential for significant impacts on businesses and communities.

    • Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas face challengesDespite progress, trust issues hinder Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, while Reddit reports strong earnings with increased losses, and global trade growth is expected but faces challenges

      The ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are facing significant challenges despite recent progress. Hamas had approved a draft proposal for a hostage deal leading to a temporary ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages, but Israel found it unacceptable and launched a ground offensive in Rafah. The lack of trust between the two parties makes reaching a deal a massive challenge. In other news, Reddit reported impressive first-quarter earnings with revenue growth of 48% and upbeat revenue estimates for the current quarter, despite a significant increase in net losses due to IPO expenses. Lastly, global trade is expected to almost double in growth this year compared to 2023, but potential challenges remain.

    • Global trade growth to improve, driven by stronger economy and Chinese signs of improvementGlobal trade growth is projected to reach 3.3% by 2025 due to a stronger economy and Chinese improvement, but trade barriers and geopolitical blocs pose threats. The trade-to-GDP ratio remains steady at 57%.

      Global trade growth is expected to improve, with the OECD forecasting a 3.3% increase by 2025. This growth is driven by a stronger global economy, particularly the US, and signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. However, there are potential threats to this trend, including the rise of trade barriers and the formation of geopolitically aligned trade blocs. Despite these concerns, the ratio of world trade to global GDP is forecast to remain around 57%, indicating that global trade activity is not significantly decreasing. The recent discourse about the end of globalization may be shifting towards a concept of realignment, where trade relationships are adjusting to new geopolitical realities.

    • Global economic realignment instead of deglobalizationThe economy is shifting, but not cratering or reducing trade significantly. Global realignment is a more nuanced concept than deglobalization.

      The current global economic situation is more about realignment between trading blocks rather than deglobalization. The economy is experiencing shifts, but a dramatic cratering or reduction in trade is not imminent. This realignment is a more nuanced concept than deglobalization, which implies a more drastic change in the trade landscape. For more insights on this topic and other business news, visit ft.com and listen to the Capital Ideas podcast for in-depth conversations with investment professionals. Remember, Coriant can help you navigate your financial goals with customized wealth management solutions. Connect with a wealth adviser at coriant.com.

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    Good morning. I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. First, let's bring you the latest developments on the war in the Middle East. Israel has widened its ground offensive in Gaza, pressing ahead with what it has called the second phase of its war against a moss We get the latest now from Bloomberg to Oliver Crook in Tel Aviv over the weekend. We had sort of that step up in terms of ground activity within Gaza in the fourth week of this conflict, and now a new chapter in it, it seems like, and that's really how he was described by the Prime Minister. Remember, there had been sort of puncture poles and sort of slight incursions in the lead up to this, but this was really the biggest step up in terms of ground troops and tanks going into Gaza, but still falls short critically of the full scale invasion that many people had envisioned and how this battle was going to go. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook in Tel Aviv reports Israel has struck more than six hundred militant targets in Gaza in recent days. Well, Amy, the military escalation comes as Israel's Prime minister criticism over his unwillingness to accept any responsibility for the October seventh attack. Benjamin Netanyahu caused controversy with a social media post where he pointed the finger at intelligence chiefs for the security lapse. He later deleted the post and apologized. Net Yahoo, speaking through an interpreter, addressed the nation our hero troops. They have one supreme main goal to completely defeat the murderous enemy and to guarantee our existence in this country. We've always said never again, Never again is now. And those comments come as Netanyahu spoke by phone with President Biden to discuss developments in Gaza. A Russian airport and a majority Muslim region has been temporarily shut down after a mob forced its way onto the tarmac where, according to reports, a plane from Israel had landed. It took hours to restore order. The Russian air Transport Agency says the airport will reopen tomorrow, after initially saying the regional hub may be closed for a week. Well amy back here in the US, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he expects the Republican led chamber to pass an Israel aid bill this week and he spoke to Fox News. We passed the resolution, as you noted, in strong support of our strong ally and great friend Israel. We had to do that. And then I flew last night to Las Vegas and spoke to the Republican Jewish Coalition, as you noted, to send a further signal that this isn't a priority for our country and we cannot allow the brutality and the just unspeakable evil that is happening against Israel right now to continue. We're going to stand with our friends, and Speaker Johnson added that he believes an Israel only bill will also receive bipartisan support in the Senate. And let's get you up to date on a couple of high profile court cases. First, Donald Trump lost his latest attempt to delay the partial gag order on him in his January sixth trial. Bloomberg's ed Baxter with that story. The partial gag order bars him from publicly criticizing prosecutors potential witnesses in court. Staff US District Judge Tanya Chutkin's ruling will immediately go into effect unless a higher court intervenes. Trump attorneys are expected to ask a federal appeals court to immediately step in the order was paused as a judge allowed further arguments. Prosecutors argue for a tighter gag, as they say a post regarding former chief of staff Mark Meadows, who flipped last week, would have violated the order if it were in effect ed. Baxter Bloomberg Radio all right ed thanks another trial news. FTX co founder Sam Bankman Freed returns to the stand today. He'll likely face a bruising cross examination from prosecutors after his Friday testimony, where he admitted to mistakes but said he didn't commit fraud. The case against Bankman Freed centers on allegedly fraudulent transfers of billions in FTX customer funds to an affiliated hedge fund, Alimeter Research, in which he held at ninety percent interest. Turning to the market's futures are higher as we begin a new trading week, S and P five hundred to enter da technic correction on Friday, with the benchmark closing ten percent below a recent peak. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says investors hoping for a boost to stocks by the end of the year will be disappointed. Wilson says profit expectations are too high for the fourth quarter and next year. Melami. The direction of the equity market may be determined in part by some key events on the economic calendar. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. House prices and consumer confidence lead the way tomorrow before a big Wednesday ADP, employment, jolt's, job openings, and ism manufacturing. Thursday we get productivity and jobless claims, and Friday brings everyone's favorite indicator, the October jobs report. Normally that might be the big event of the week, but two Wednesday events will overshadow it. The Fed always gets huge attention even though nobody on Wall Street thinks they'll do anything this week, and Treasury's refunding announcement how much they'll borrow of what bonds this quarter. Debts are so high it could be a major market moving event. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio. I thank you, Mike. In Europe, shares of HSBC are down a quarter of a percent profit MYSSED estimates, but the bank did announce a fresh buyback program. We spoke with CEO Noel Quinn very pleased with the three billion dollar buyback that we've announced today. Up to three billion dollars. That takes it to seven billion for the full year. And I'm also pleased that we've announced another ten cents dividends. AHSBC chief executive Noel Quinn suggested there may be more buybacks to come. Well, Lamey, there's more labor problems at one of the big automakers. Workers at Stalantis's Canadian plants went on strike after failing to reach a new contract by a Sunday night deadline. UNI four, which represents Canadian autoworkers. As the strike involves more than eighty two hundred members, it gives the automaker a new labor headache just days after it's settled a long walkout with the United Auto Workers in the US, and again, futures are on the rise. This morning, straight ahead, we have more global headlines, plus a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Thank you, Karen. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Bark. Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Amy. More protests were held over the weekend across New York City, over the Middle East, crisis. Yesterday in Queens, a rally was held by the Bangladeshi community in Ozone Park. On Saturday, demonstrators in Manhattan march with Palestinian flags. Hundreds gathered for Brooklyn United for Israel rally demanding the release of hostages held by Hamas. A huge rally was also held inside Grand Central Terminal organized by the group Jewish Voice for Peace. Demonstrations were also held in Newark. An autopsy has been performed on Matthew Perry, but it could be weeks before we know what caused the star's untimely depth. Terry was found over the weekend in his hot tub at his Los Angeles home in New York City. Fans have been showing up in the rain to pay the respects at the sight of the famous Friend's apartment building in the West Village at the corner of Bedford in Grove Streets. Ely Besaides tears were coming. Ivy we were thinking about he was very funny. Matthew Perry was fifty four. A Long Island man was arrested after police say he allegedly pointed a gun at a six year old boy after the child mistakenly went to the wrong house. Michael Wynn was a rained yesterday in charge with menacing and endangering the welfare of a child. Authorities saying that the mother was driving her three kids and her nephew to a house in Manhasset when they apparently dropped off a Halloween goodie bag at the wrong address. Police say Win allegedly opened the door and pointed a gun at the boy's head. Attention is now being turned to missed warning signs in last week's massacre in Lewiston, Maine, that killed eighteen people. Police saying the suspected gunman, Robert Card, was found dead from an apparent self inflicted gunshot wound. Cohen, a former DHS official, sold ABC Card fits the profile of a mass shooter. This is an individual who is troubled that he was exhibiting behaviors that were noticed by family members, people he worked with, people in the military, yet he was still able to get a gun, and he was still able to fall through the cracks in the system and commit a mass shooting. Meanwhile, more than a thousand people gathered for a Sunday evening vigil to remember those killed and wounded in Lewiston. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Amy. All right, Thank you, Michael, and we do bring you news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. But now get the latest news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by Tri State Audi. For that, we're bringing John stash Hour. Thanks Amy. The Jets Giant game was expected to be low scoring. Both teams have a stout defense ended an anemic offense, but no one could have expected twenty four punts a collective four for thirty four on third down of the Giants to have negative nine passing yards. Despite that, the Giants towards the end were said to have a win probability of ninety nine percent. They led by three going for a field goal. Zach Wilson of the Jets had had only one good offensive play all day, but everything changed in the last twenty eight seconds of regulation. The thirty five yarder by the normally reliable Graham Ganot was missed. Wilson suddenly had consecutive twenty nine yard completions. Greg zerline field goal sent the game to overtime, where the Giants and Dorry Jackson was called for a thirty yard pass interference and the Jets kicked again. Stoop clean please continue the kickass up and the tech hooks to the left, but it's gone inside the left pry for Zerlin and the Jets spit it in overtime, and honestly, I'm not sure how it was. Headshake Adespo, New York the calleg Jets one thirteen ten. They've won three to a rother Giants are two and six and may have to play next week with the rookie QB Tommy DeVito. Daniel Jones's replacement, Tyrod Taylor, left in the first half with injured ribs. Big upset in Denver, Broncos beat the Chiefs first time in seventeen meetings, twenty four to nine, forty nine ers or five and oh. They've lost their last three beaten by Cincinnati. John Stashiewer, Bloomberg Sports ten. All right, thank you, John. The Bloomberg Sports Report was brought to you by Audi. Don't let someone else drive off in the Audi model you've always wanted. Visit your local Tri state AUDI dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today, or visit audioffers dot com for more information. Just add on Bloomberg Daybreak the very latest from Tel Aviv when we talk with Bloomberg's Ross Matheson, and we'll hear from a senior advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Nott in Yahoo. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak. Futures are higher from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syria's Exam the Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I MA anymore. As Israel has widened its ground offensive, end guards are pressing ahead with what it is calling the second phase of its war against Hamas we are joined now by Bloomberg's Roz Mathieson and Ras. Israel calls this the second phase. But what does that involve well what we know, it just doesn't involve an expanded operation on the ground inside Gars and more troops, more tanks going in where they continue their aerial bombardmer But what's interesting in this is that it's not the full throated ground war that we perhaps are expecting a week or two ago. We know Israel had masked hundreds of thousands of soldiers near the border with Gars, are an awful lot of equipment in the area, and so far they haven't sent in that kind of number of troops, and they're doing more target operations on the ground. That said, it is an escalation from what we had a few days ago, and the warning from the Israeli officials and the military is that this could take many many weeks, if not months in terms of their operation on the ground. Meanwhile, and all of that, we're seeing even greater evidence that the humanitarian situation for those inside Gaza is deteriorating further. Now, this is not the full scale invasion, as you just explained, and it is more measured, more targeted. So is Israel maybe backing off of the idea of that full scale invasion. Well, it certainly is a more significant operation on the ground than it was. As I said a couple of days ago, they said they struck more than six hundred targets in Gaza in recent days. That includes weapons depots and missile sites and so on. It's talked about saying that it's taken out quite a number of Hamas fighters. It's also conducting raids in the West Bank and clashing with militant fairs. So it's not a small scale military operation, but it's not the level that perhaps we expected. They are still maintaining that their ultimate goal is to decimate Hamas, to make sure that an attack that happened on October seven can never happen again. And let's look at the risk of this expanding. The Biden administration preparing for the possibility of the war expanding across the Middle East. What are some of the signals that we have seen that this is actually starting to bleed over Well, so far, we are seeing around, for example, make those threats it could open up multiple fronts in the region. We're still seeing some attacks coming from outfits proxy outfits for around in places like Syria, we're seeing Hesbela still engage in firefights with Israeli forces from the North, but we haven't seen a real step up in that activity. We're not seeing hes Bala utilize the full force of its machinery. It's got some very highly sophisticated missiles, for example. So we're seeing a lot of threats at the moment that it could still bleed into a broader conflict, and that remains a high concern for all, but so far we're not seeing real evidence that that's starting to happen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu, as you know, has been facing criticism and a lot of pressure over his unwillingness to accept any responsibility for that attack back in October. Is there a risk that Israel may find itself more isolated as it goes further, Well, we are seeing that idea of a unity government in Israel already potentially start to fray. As you mentioned the Prime Minister Benjamin net Now, he tweeted in the middle of the night saying that the security forces were responsible for the lapses that allowed the October seven attack. He then had to retract that tweet and apologize against a wall of criticism inside Israel. So perhaps questions about ongoing political unity inside Israel, but outside Israel. Also, you are seeing those very significant expressions of concern coming from Europe, the US and elsewhere and also Arab nations in the region about the state of life inside Gaza for people who were there, and concerns about the humanitarian situation. So you are still seeing that way to support from the US and Europe for Israel in the aftermath of the attack, But as time goes on, that is being eroded somewhat about concerns about the level of the catastrophe inside Gaza. All right, Bloomberg's ros mathieson with the latest in Israel. Thank you so much for that, And as that war enters its second phase, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin nat Yahoo apologizing, as Rod's just explained, for that social media post in which he failed to accept responsibility for the terrorist attack on October seventh. Now earlier today, our Caroline Hacker spoke with Mark Regev, senior advisor to net Yahoo about that social media post and other aspects of the war. They talked about long term goals for security and peace, humanitarian aid for Gaza, US support. Let's go to part of that discussion. We haven't released any information yet, but what I heard last night was so far we've been doing well, and that's important for us obviously, But our goal is of course to take on Camas, to destroy its military machine and to remove it from power there on the Gaza Strip. We refuse in Israel to return to a situation where we've got this terrorist enclad on our southern border that at will will attack us, at will, will send rockets into Israel to target our cities, at will will send its killers into our country to massacre our people. We won't stand for that anymore. We will take on Kamas, we will destroy its capabilities to hurt us. What efforts are being made to negotiate the release of hostages now as the ground offensive has widened in the last couple of days, do you expect any more hostages to be released by hamas well? First of all, I don't expect Tamas to suddenly change. They're not going to become humanitarians. Yes, they are a brutal terrorist organization, and we saw vividly the sort of violence that capable of, the brutal violence that they're capable of when they attacked Israel on October seventh. So we have no illusions about Kamas we think we'll get our hostages out by ratcheting up the pressure on Hamas, the military pressure, the diplomatic pressure on its allies. We think that's the best way to get our people home. And of course, as our operation continues, and as our operation expands, the efforts to get the hostages released will continue. You are close to Benjamin Latanier, who is his advisor, of course, and you're in the room at many of the important moments and meetings. Benjamin Netanya, who over the weekend issued this very rare apology for a tweet in which he blamed Israel's security forces and intelligence of failing to anticipate the Hamas attack on the seventh of October. How much pressure is Netanyahu under now to resign. I'm not aware of any pressure for him to resign. I would say this, Yes, it's clear that we're failures on the Israeli side. They took us by surprise on October seventh. We didn't have an intelligence warning. That's clear. When they crossed our border. They butchered our people, and Israelis want to know how this happened. Now. Obviously the Prime Minister is at the top, and he has overall responsibility. But it's clear that when this is over, we're going to have to look at all the lessons learned and have a thorough investigation of what happened, where everyone in all positions of authority will be held accountable. Iran's foreign minister has been speaking to Bloomberg. He spoke to us on Friday. He said that if the United States continues what it has been doing so far, in other words, support for Israel, then quote new fronts would be opened up against the United States. How much of a concern are comments like that to you. I think it's exactly opposite, the fact that the United States has sent its two aircraft carrier groups to the Middle East, the fact that the United States has worn the Iranians. Don't use Gaza as an excuse to try to start something new. I think that's going to keep the peace. Our policy is victory in the south, and we will win victory over Kamas and the gas strip and to deter any possible offensive from Grizibella or Iran in the north. And as it's been reported, Israel has been fighting back, hitting targets when we've been attacked by Islaar and even from Syria. Last night, but we don't want a larger escalation in the north, but we are ready. The US, though, has said that Israel and its military should be taking every possible means available to them to distinguish between Harmas, should the US cause terrorists who are legitimate military targets, in their words, distinguish between Hamas and civilians who are not are not targets. Is Israel doing that. Israel has also promised significantly more humanitarian aid. What is the realistic time frame for when that happens. So we accept that we want to attack and destroy Hamas, and we want to make every maximum every effort possible to keep civilians out of the crossfire between the idea of these rather defense forces than the Kammas terrorists, and that's why we've been calling upon urging Gars and civilians to leave combat zone, specifically in the north where we know there is going to be heavy fighting. We want to get them out of Harmer's way. At the same time, it must be said that Ramas is doing everything possible to tell people not to leave, that they have to be martyrs for Ramas's crazy extremist cause, and they've actually put up roadblocks to physically prevent people from leaving areas of combat from going south. What do you say to the UN call and many other countries who are calling for a cea spar that actually, more bloodshed is not the way to bring about peace after so many other wars. What do you say to them, Well, if they can tell me another way to dismantle Cammas's military machine, I'm very glad to hear it, But at the moment, there is no other way. And those who call for a cease file in the current situation. It might sound good, and I understand why people might think, oh, that's a wonderful idea, let's stop shooting, But that basically just returns us to October seventh or sixth in the morning, where Israel has this terroced enclave on our southern border run by Kamas, which is like Isis on steroids. We saw the violence they were capable of that, We saw the brutality. We saw the rapes and the murders and burning people alive, and the massacres. We refuse. People have to understand Israel refuses to return to that situation. What is the post war plan for Gaza exactly? So we don't want to have, you know, to stay there forever, but we will. We will stay there as long as we need to destroy Kamas's military machine, and that is the goal of this operation. And so it would mean Israeli forces in Gaza for an indefinite period of time. I wouldn't put it that way, but as long as our military operations are necessary to destroy Kamas's military machine. Once again, we have no intention of staying there. We have no desire to rule the Gaza strip in any sort of That was Mark Redjeff, Senior advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin det Yahoo, speaking with our Caroline Heffger. Listen back to that entire conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. Download that program wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeart Radio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

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    Matt Klein on How Germany Wound up So Dependent on Russian Gas

    Matt Klein on How Germany Wound up So Dependent on Russian Gas

    Harsh sanctions have been imposed against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the country's energy exports have largely been spared. One significant reason for this is Germany's high dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas. So how did Germany wind up in this situation? And why didn't it take steps years ago to start weaning itself off of this dependency? We discuss this with Matt Klein, the founder and publisher of The Overshoot as well as the author of the book Trade Wars Are Class Wars. He explains how misplaced German priorities led to years of underinvestment, and a poorly thought out energy strategy, which is now forcing Germany to pivot at a very difficult time.

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