Podcast Summary
Larger-than-expected Labour recovery in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: Labour's unexpected 30-point lead in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election could result in a significant gain of 40-50 seats in Scotland, potentially reversing the political trend of the past decade
The by-election result in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Scotland, showed a larger-than-expected swing to Labour, indicating a significant recovery for the party in the region. The Labour Party received 58-59% of the votes, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) received only 27%, resulting in a 30-point lead for Labour. This outcome, if replicated throughout Scotland, could lead to Labour gaining nearly 40-50 seats, potentially reversing the political trend of the past decade. The by-election was significant due to the higher-than-expected swing towards Labour, which went beyond the polls' predictions and the general trend of Scottish politics.
Shift in voter behavior from SMP to Labour: Traditional SMP supporters are switching to Labour due to dissatisfaction and desire to get Tories out of power, potentially indicating a larger shift in political landscape
The by-election results in Motherwell and Rotherham signify a significant shift in voter behavior, with many traditional SMP (Scottish National Party) supporters expressing their intent to switch to Labour. This trend is not solely due to voter apathy towards the SMP but also because Labour is gaining new support. In Scotland, there has been a noticeable reversal of previous voting patterns, with unionist voters moving en masse to Labour. This change is a combination of dissatisfaction with recent scandals affecting the SMP and a desire to get the Tories out of power. Despite some skepticism from voters that their switch will make a difference, the results show a clear and emphatic positive outcome for Labour. The challenge for the SMP now is to rally their base in time for the Westminster election, as failure to do so could result in substantial losses. However, it remains to be seen whether the anti-Tory vote will coalesce around Labour in a general election. My conversations with voters in Rotherham last week echoed these findings, with many lifelong SMP supporters expressing their intention to vote Labour. This shift could be indicative of a larger, more profound change in the political landscape.
Scottish politics sees potential shift with Labour's by-election win: Disgruntled Scottish voters turned to Labour, signalling a desire for change from constitutional matters to public services, cost of living, and economic growth.
The Scottish by-election results mark a potential shift in Scottish politics, as the era of almost uncontested SNP dominance may be coming to an end. The low turnout election saw a significant number of voters, particularly those disgruntled with the SNP's handling of public services and the ongoing constitutional debates, turning to Labour as a means to get the Tories out at Westminster. This victory could signal a desire among Scots for a change in focus from constitutional matters to issues like public services, cost of living, and economic growth. The outcome may also reflect the uncertainty surrounding the SNP's stance on independence and the ongoing investigations against the party. Overall, the results suggest that the tectonic plates are starting to move in Scottish politics, with Labour emerging as a potential safety valve for those within the union who wish to see a change.
Shy Labor Effect in Scotland: Historically non-Labor voters in Scotland may hide their support due to party's poor image, while SNP can attract independence supporters and others
The current political climate in Scotland and potentially in other rural areas could see a "shy labor effect," where voters who have historically not identified with or voted for the Scottish Labor Party due to its low favorability may feel hesitant to publicly declare their support, even if they're leaning towards it. This is due to the party's poor brand image and the availability of alternative options, such as the Scottish National Party (SNP) or the Conservative Party. The Labor Party is currently the most popular political party in the UK, but it's split between those who like and dislike it. The upcoming by-election in Scotland will be an interesting test case for this phenomenon. Another key point is that there is a core group of voters in Scotland for whom independence is a priority issue, and the SNP can win over others who are in favor of independence but have other priorities at the moment.
SNP's Scottish independence not main election issue: SNP needs to focus on building Scottish support for independence and creating a settled will of the people, rather than relying on election results to mandate a referendum.
The constitutional question of Scottish independence may not be the primary motivating issue for voters in the upcoming general election. Despite the SNP's desire to use the next election as a de facto referendum on independence, the party is facing a credibility gap due to the uncertainty of their negotiation strategy and potential loss of seats and votes. The SNP, aware of their declining stage, needs to figure out a new play and cannot rely on the same approach of winning one seat more than Labour as a mandate for independence. Instead, SNP candidates and activists should focus on building support for independence and creating a settled will of the Scottish people, making it difficult for Westminster to block a referendum.
SNP's Economic Message Amid Cost of Living Crisis vs. Labor's Focus: SNP struggles to define clear economic message amidst focus on Scottish independence, while Labor effectively connects with voters on cost of living, economy, and public services.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has faced challenges in defining a clear economic message during the ongoing cost of living crisis, while Labor has effectively focused on these issues. The SNP's primary focus remains on Scottish independence, making it difficult for their candidates and activists to communicate a clear message on the economy. In contrast, Labor has been successful in connecting with voters by focusing on cost of living, the economy, and public services. Moreover, Hamzah Yusuf, the SNP leader, has had a challenging tenure, particularly following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and the need to reevaluate policies that weren't working effectively. These circumstances, coupled with the missed opportunity to set a clear stamp on government administration during his program for government, have made it a challenging time for Yusuf to lead the party. Despite these challenges, there is a sense that he is a nice guy with good intentions, but he has yet to effectively connect with the electorate. The upcoming 2026 Holyrood election is expected to see the NHS and the economy as the two major issues, making it crucial for the SNP to address these concerns effectively.
Unexpected momentum for Scottish Labour in Scottish elections: Scottish Labour unexpectedly gained significant seats in the Scottish elections, potentially indicating a shift in power and setting the stage for future elections in 2026
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is facing significant challenges and last night's election results indicate a potential shift in power towards Scottish Labour. The scale of Labour's gains was unexpected, with some predicting as few as 20-24 seats, but last night's swing suggests a potential gain of 40-45 seats. This unexpected momentum could bring the Holyrood 2026 election into play for Labour, and Anas Sarwar, who aims to be the first minister, is likely considering this as a potential launchpad into the future. The SNP's grip on power may be loosening, and it's unclear if this will lead to a more competitive political landscape or a radical shift towards one party. Another point to watch is the relationship between Scottish Labour and UK Labour, as policy divisions between the two parties may become more pronounced as Sarwar positions himself for the role of first minister. Scottish Labour will want the Labour government at Westminster to deliver for Scotland, but Sarwar may also seek to assert Scottish Labour's independence from the UK party. Overall, the unexpected election results mark a significant shift in Scottish politics and will be an interesting development to watch over the next few years.
Surprising Scottish by-election results for Labour: Unexpected Labour win in Scottish by-elections may lead to varying outcomes in 2026 Scottish elections, depending on national Labour performance and campaign strategy.
The recent by-election results in Scotland for the British Labour Party have surprised many, with a larger-than-expected swing towards Labour. The implications of this for the upcoming 2026 Scottish elections are uncertain, as it depends on the performance of the Labour Party at the national level. Scottish Labour has made a visual break from the rest of the UK Labour Party by changing their logo and may campaign differently. If Westminster Labour performs poorly, Scottish Labour may try to capitalize on the situation and position themselves as a party that can get things done in contrast. However, if Westminster Labour does reasonably well, Scottish Labour may campaign on a platform of working with them to get a functional government. The scale of Labour's win in the recent by-elections was unexpected, and while some predict a significant gain in Scottish seats, others believe that the Single Member Plurality (SMP) system and the distribution of resources will limit the party's success. Ultimately, the outcome of the 2026 Scottish elections will depend on various factors, including the national political climate and the effectiveness of Scottish Labour's campaign strategy.
Uncertainty in Scottish Election Results: The Scottish National Party (SNP) and Conservative Party face significant opposition in the upcoming UK general election, with potential gains and losses for both parties in Scotland. The outcome remains unpredictable.
The upcoming UK general election results in Scotland are uncertain, with both the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Conservative Party expected to experience gains and losses. The SNP could potentially regain seats in areas like Edinburgh and East Lothian due to anti-Conservative sentiment. However, the Conservative Party might still hold onto seats in the Scottish borders due to strong anti-SNP feelings. Ultimately, the outcome remains unpredictable as both parties face significant levels of opposition. Listeners are encouraged to submit questions for future podcasts at newstatesman.com/forward/youaskus. The New Statesman podcast will return next week with updates from the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. The episode was produced by Katherine Hughes and sponsored by UnitedHealthcare Insurance Plans and 1800flowers.com.
