Podcast Summary
Japan's economy: Recent economic indicators suggest a potential turnaround for Japan's economy, but skepticism remains as it still lags behind the top three global economies
Japan's economic landscape presents contrasting views. While some see Japan as having turned a corner with rising inflation and a revitalized economy, others remain skeptical. Despite recent improvements, Japan still lags behind the world's top three economies. A new study reveals that only a small percentage of therapies tested on animals make it to human use, raising questions about the significance and ethics of animal testing. Elsewhere, TikTok is the latest platform for etiquette classes, offering lessons on manners and social graces. In Japan, decades of low inflation have taken a toll on the economy, which is now in fourth place globally. However, recent economic indicators suggest that Japan may be experiencing a turnaround, with rising inflation and a surging stock market. Whether this marks a genuine revival or just a temporary improvement remains to be seen.
Japan's Economic Outlook: Despite recent signs of inflation and wage growth, Japan's economic future remains uncertain due to demographic challenges and a weakening currency, as structural issues persist.
Japan's economic outlook remains a subject of debate among optimists and pessimists. The optimists argue that recent signs of inflation, rising wages, and a booming stock market indicate a shift from stagnation. However, the pessimists counter that despite inflation, growth remains elusive, and the country faces demographic challenges and a weakening currency. DemonicDuck spent a week in Nihombashi, Tokyo, to gain a better understanding of the situation. While some saw promising economic trends, others emphasized persistent structural issues. Ultimately, the future of Japan's economy remains uncertain, with both sides presenting valid arguments.
Japan's economic history and current situation: Japan's economic history marked by commerce hubs and supply chain shocks, leading to current inflation and rising prices, with wages not keeping pace
Japan's economic history and its current economic situation are deeply interconnected. Historically, Tokyo, specifically the Nihombashi area, was a hub of commerce during the Edo era. However, the arrival of American black ships in the late 1800s brought about significant supply chain shocks, leading to rising import prices and shifting consumer behaviors. Fast forward to today, and we're seeing similar trends with prices for goods and services rising at faster rates than any time since the 1990s. This dynamic is not limited to specific industries or areas but is widespread across Japan. Companies are raising prices, and consumers are accepting them. This new reality has significant implications, including the Bank of Japan raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years to combat inflation. Despite this, wages have yet to keep pace, leaving many consumers struggling to cope with rising costs. The historical context provides valuable insight into Japan's current economic challenges and the complex factors driving them.
Japanese consumers' response to wage growth: Japanese consumers, accustomed to deflation and low inflation, may face challenges adjusting to positive wage growth and its impact on consumer spending
While the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy has led to optimism among investors and record-breaking stock indexes, Japanese consumers are feeling the pinch due to inflation outpacing wage growth. This dynamic, fueled by years of deflation and low inflation, raises questions about how the shift to positive wage growth will play out in practice and impact consumer spending. Despite the economic theory suggesting increased consumer confidence and spending, the psychological aspect of this change in a conditioned society is an important and hard-to-measure factor.
Japan's economic challenges: Japan's economy faces labor shortages due to shrinking working age population and ethical debates over animal testing for scientific research
Japan's economic situation remains complex and uncertain, with both positive signs of progress and challenging demographic realities. The country's working age population is projected to shrink significantly over the coming decades, leading to labor shortages and potential impacts on growth. Meanwhile, the use of animals in scientific research, such as at Huntingdon Life Sciences, remains a contentious issue. While many view animal testing as necessary for developing life-saving treatments, animal rights activists argue against the practice. However, it's important to note that only a small proportion of therapies tested on animals ultimately make it to human use. These complex issues underscore the need for ongoing debate and careful consideration of the ethical, social, and scientific implications of economic and scientific progress.
Animal testing and drug development: Despite half of animal-tested therapies being promising for human trials, only 1 in 20 eventually reach the market due to differences between animals and humans, commercial interest, and challenges in testing drugs on women.
Only about 5% of therapies tested on animals eventually make it to market in the United States. This statistic comes from an analysis of 122 research reviews, which found that only half of the therapies tested on animals were promising enough for human trials, and only one in 20 made it to market. The reasons for this low success rate include the fact that lab animals are not humans, so not all results translate well, as well as non-clinical factors like commercial interest. It's important to note that even if every drug that worked in animals also worked in humans, only 25% would still make it to market. Additionally, there are challenges in testing how drugs will work on women, as animal models often don't have the same hormonal cycles as humans.
Animal studies predictive power: Highly reproducible animal studies have an 86% success rate in predicting similar outcomes in humans, but less rigorous studies may not accurately represent human responses. Incorporating human diversity in animal models can improve predictions.
While animal studies can provide valuable insights, their predictive power for human outcomes depends on the study's rigor and its ability to represent human diversity. Dr. Nyken's research revealed that highly reproducible animal studies had an 86% success rate in predicting similar outcomes in humans. However, not all animal studies are conducted with the same rigor, and those that are less rigorous may not accurately predict human responses. Additionally, animal models that more closely resemble human diversity, such as wild mice studies, have shown to be more accurate. Although removing animals from testing altogether is a possibility, it comes with its own challenges and ethical considerations. Animal-free testing already exists, but it may not be a complete solution as it also has limitations. Overall, improving the design and rigor of animal studies, as well as incorporating human diversity, can lead to more accurate predictions and better outcomes for human trials.
Technology and Tradition: Technology is transforming industries by offering alternatives to animal testing and reviving the importance of etiquette through organs on a chip and AI models, and Emily Post-inspired influencers, respectively.
Technology is revolutionizing various industries, from science to etiquette, with advancements like organs on a chip and AI simulations reducing the need for animals in scientific research and Emily Post-inspired influencers reviving the importance of etiquette in modern society. Organs on a chip and AI models offer promising alternatives to animal testing, enabling scientists to check the viability of therapies and predict human responses more efficiently. Meanwhile, the etiquette influencers teach young people essential social skills, providing practical advice on manners and helping individuals set boundaries. Both these trends reflect the ongoing evolution of our culture and the ways technology and tradition intersect to shape our world.
Digital Manners: In the digital age, good manners and soft skills are crucial for effective communication and building relationships, while AI could both encourage and discourage polite behavior.
In the modern world, with the rise of digital communication and the pandemic leading to less face-to-face interaction, etiquette and manners have taken on renewed importance. Over half of American companies are hiring experts to help their employees improve their professional personas, and even traditional institutions like Debrettes, the guide to British manners, have updated their guidelines to include modern trends. However, despite this increased focus on manners, many people believe that society as a whole is less civil than it was a decade ago. The pandemic and social media are often blamed for this perceived decline in respect and politeness. Yet, the need for good social skills has become even more crucial in the digital age, where there are endless guides to proper etiquette for everything from email to selfies to flying. As artificial intelligence becomes more prevalent, manners and soft skills may become even more valuable, while AI could also make people ruder by encouraging barked orders at smart speakers.
Politeness to AI: Rude requests to AI models can lead to inappropriate responses or missing details due to their reliance on human data and social etiquette. Be polite for optimal results.
Being polite to AI models can lead to better performance. A study revealed that rude requests can cause chatbots to fabricate information or omit crucial details. This behavior may stem from AI's reliance on vast human data, making it responsive to social etiquette. In the digital realm, manners matter just as much as they do in the physical world. So, remember to be polite to AI models for optimal results. Additionally, I would like to kindly remind you about the array of excellent content available if you subscribe to The Economist Podcast Plus. Currently, you can enjoy a free month's trial and access all our weekly podcasts. I'm confident you'll appreciate this recommendation. That's all for today's episode of The Intelligence. We value your feedback, so please share your thoughts with us at podcasts@economist.com. We'll be back tomorrow with more insightful content.