March 2022 Stats + 3 Factors Shaping The real estate Landscape

Should I buy first or sell first?

I get asked this very often.

Before making any changes to your REP, the very first thing you do is to talk to your 3 TRUSTED advisers:

• Realtor - can guide you in terms of pricing, buyer/seller sentiment, market conditions, real estate fundamentals.
• Mortgage Broker AND your bank contact/Financial Adviser if they are the same person. If you have an existing mortgage with CIBC or RBC, then speak with them first as they do not deal with external mortgage brokers. 
• Your lawyer - guiding you from a legal perspective especially if there are more people in your immediate family and/or partners involved.

That being said, let’s get’s started

Welcome to a new episode of The Real estate Podcast with me Nico James-Bock, a Broker with Royal LePage Signature Realty in the GTA.

I am going to put this as succinctly as possible. When you are making changes to your REP (Real Estate Portfolio), after you’ve spoke with your advisers, the way I see it you have 3️⃣ main options:

1. If you HAVE to sell in order to complete a purchase, SELL FIRST, HAVE SHORT-TERM ACCOMMODATION AS A PLAN B, and line up a couple of. storage options, set a 45-75 day closing window, BUY SECOND, closing date set for AFTER your sale closes (can be a week up to 30 days.

Reasons you Have to Sell:

• Job/Family relocation
• Separation/Divorce
• Court Order
• Upsizing / Downsizing
• Mortgage - Power of Sale - The bank takes over
• Health Problems

2. If you WANT to sell to free up capital or to cash in on multiple investments, SELL FIRST, if needed, have short-term accommodation as a plan B, take your time to search if you want to buy, BUY SECOND.=

• Upsizing / Downsizing  - More or Less Space
• Changing housing type (Condo <-> Castle - Freehold)
• Changes to your REP (Real Estate Portfolio)

3. If you DON'T HAVE to sell in order to complete a purchase, BUY FIRST, close on your purchase, SELL SECOND, if and when you want to, and set your desired closing.

Plan of action:

• Seerch available listings
• Make an offer
• Close on the purchase
• When ready, list your home for sale

That’s it for this episode. Leave me a comment or let me know your take on the buy first sell first question.

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In this episode of The Real Estate Podcast with me, Nico James-Bock, a Broker at Royal LePage Signature Realty in downtown Toronto, we delve into the intricacies of 6 Canadian real estate taxes, focusing on the major taxes involved in a typical residential transaction. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, a tenant looking to jump into home ownership , or a seasoned investor, understanding these taxes is crucial for making informed decisions in the Canadian real estate market, in general, and more specifically, in the GTA.

This is not a comprehensive list nor is it tax advice. For tax matters, always seek professional advice from an accountant/tax specialist/lawyer.

Here are the 6 Taxes

1. Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)
2. Land Transfer Tax (LTT) + 
    Non Resident Speculation Tax (NRST)
3. Property Tax and Assessments
4. Capital Gains Tax + Income Tax
5. Foreign Buyer Taxes
6. Vacant Home Tax +
    Underused Housing Tax

Host: As we wrap up, it's important to remember that taxes are an integral part of the real estate landscape in Canada. By understanding the major taxes involved in a residential transaction, you can make informed decisions and navigate the process with confidence.

Host: That concludes today's episode of "Navigating Canadian Real Estate Taxes." Thank you for tuning in. Be sure to subscribe for future episodes, and if you have any questions or topics you'd like us to cover, feel free to reach out. 

Ciao ciao

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Your 5 Takeaways from the December 2023 Market Stats
Happy New Year! Welcome to the first episode of the New Year. In this episode of the Real Estate Podcast, i'm presenting you with your 5 Takeaways from the recent Dec 2023 Market Stats 

1. (GTA) home sales came in at less than 70,000 due to affordability concerns brought about by higher mortgage rates
2. Relief looks to be on the horizon with borrowing costs expected to trend lower by mid- 2024 (between April 10th - July 24th announcements). We have already witnessed a 30% decline in the 5-year Canada bond yield rate since its peak in early October. This has brought 5-year fixed mortgages down to almost 5% and has already encouraged some Buyers to re engage in the market. 
3. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's Macro Market Stats show that buyers who were active in the market benefitted from more choice throughout 2023, which allowed many of them to negotiate lower selling prices, alleviating some of the impact of higher borrowing costs.
4. The average selling price for all home types in 2023 was $1,126,604, Months of inventory across most regions is hovering around 3. MOI - Absorption Rate (obtained by dividing the total number of active listings by the total number of sold listings) can assist sellers to determine the optimal price for a property. The absorption rate is useful information for buyers as well because it indicates the extent to which a seller may be willing to lower their asking price or make other concessions. 
5. We have just welcomed more people to Canada on a per capita basis than we have since 1957. From July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023 (2022/2023) Canada’s population grew by 1,158,705 people (2.9%) to an estimated 40,097,761 on July 1, 2023. This represents a significant increase from the previous year (1.8% in 2021/2022) and the highest growth rate for any 12-month period since 1957 (3.3%) when Canada welcomed many refugees from the Hungarian revolution and when the post-war baby boom was at its high.Simply put. we do not have enough housing. Lack of inventory and increasing demand as rates stabilize and come down will put upward pressure on pricing. The window of opportunity for buyers in particular is closing.

That’s it for today’s episode. The Macro Stats have been posted to Instagram and to my facebook & LinkedIn business channels. 

Ciao ciao

Just one more thing, When would you like to go over the MICRO stats of your neighbourhood?

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As we end 2023, I’d like to talk to you today about what I like to call the Health First Triangle. Not the Bermuda Triangle which has a whole sort of negative connotations behind it.

A regular triangle has 3 equal sides. Equal in length means equal importance

Side 1: Physical Health

Rest during the day and at night when you are asleep. 

-Try and keep the same hours going to bed at roughly the same time and getting up at roughly the same time. 

- It’s said average adult requires between 7 - 9 hours of sleep a night.

-Add a nap or 2 during the day 10min to help you recoup your energy

Physical Activity

-Staying active means consciously making decisions that will help you

Walk 

Weight-bearing exercises, simply lifting groceries or a full bottle or package of flour if you don’t have free weights

Squats

Stretching

Yoga - which will also help with all 3 sides of the triangle

Proper Nutrition & Hydration - eat and drink in moderation

Side 2: Mental or Emotional Health

-Spending time, quality time with family and friends

Being present in conversations

-Meditation and Reflection (Yoga) - Spend time alone with your thoughts

-Active Reading

-Putting our cellphones away when we are interacting with people. Talk - listen 

We have 2 ears and 1 mouth. Listen more!

Side 3 - Financial Health

-Create a budget

-Maintain savings

-Manage debt: There’s good debt and bad debt

Good debt is a mortgage, you pay it down gradually so you can fully own your real estate

Bad debt is credit cards and short term loans

Seek advice from qualified financial express and mortgage professionals. Ask questions!!

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Dominion Lending Centres
Shaun Hildebrand - President of Urbanation (during the recording I said "vice-president")
Benjamin Tal - Managing Director & Executive Chief Economist at CIBC 

Have a great end to the year 2023 and an even better start to 2024!

Ciao ciao

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The Perfect Storm setup:
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) showed signs of a buyer's market emerging during September as the economic data and latest communications from the Bank of Canada suggested that interest rates will need to remain elevated for longer than expected. This put upward pressure on bond yields and fixed-term mortgage rates, reducing ownership affordability and causing more homeowners to list their properties for sale.

How to prepare:
You cannot control how the market performs. No one can.
What can we control? 

- [ ] We can fight to keep our property if we’re  in danger of losing it. 
- [ ] We can find a way to reduce expenses and increase income. 
- [ ] Talk to your mortgagee and/or a mortgage broker
- [ ] We can do the next right thing to move forward with your goals and dreams.
- [ ] surround yourself with the people, the professionals and givers who fill your bucket every single day.
- [ ] Build your portfolio now 

No one has a crystal ball, but today is the time to take advantage of incentives. 

Pre-construction: 

So little deposit that you have to put down and the leverage at the end is big.

What you want to do is select a project with the lowest deposit structure, and you want to make sure that the closing date is as far as possible. The money is going to grow so much, you will probably double the deposit by closing.

Pre-construction: I have to put 5% down. Let’s say 10% in the first year. The purchase price doesn’t change over time but the end value does. Each year your money appreciates. The end value will be worth 5-6%/year more. 10% in the first year is 50,000.  This might be worth 2-3 times more than what I put down. That’s the play.

If you want ease, there are rental guarantees out there. It is a speculative investment (forward facing) - you are betting the future is worth more than today. 

Rental guarantee program - you know that you are getting a cheque every month. After 1 -2 years you can take it over.  So you can make more money.  You also have the option of selling the asset.

VS

Resale home today you have to put down a minimum of $120,000 today based on a $500, 000 purchase price.  You have to rent it out immediately to recoup your outlay and in the first year you will probably lose money or break even.

Here are the project mentioned in this podcast:

Note: In Hamilton, you are NOT being charged development charges. That already a savings of $15-$30,000 on closing. 

Arcadia District (Etobicoke)

The 9Hundred Signature Residences (Etobicoke)

Kipling Station Condos (Etobicoke) Kipling Mobility Hub 

Corktown (Hamilton) Go Transit 

Design District (Hamilton) Go Transit 

Q Tower (Toronto) Union Station / Billy Bishop Airport 

Forêt (Toronto - Forest Hill) - only multi plan community in Forest Hill at Bathurst & St Clair- right beside St ClairWest Subway station 

Pickering City Centre (Pickering) Go Transit 

Lot 16 (Common Elements condo) Go townhouse community in St Catherines Go Train / Highway 

Mila 2 (freehold) Scarborough (near University of Toronto Scarborough) 

3 Questions 

1. Do you have a mortgage coming due in the next 12 months?
2. What do you want from the jest 5 years in terms of where you live?
3. Can you or someone you know benefit right now from opportunities that exist in the marketplace?

That’s it for todays episode 

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People the sky is not falling. Times are tougher, yes. But this "sky is falling" narrative makes for good headlines but rarely tells the whole story.

Welcome to another episode of the Real Estate Podcast with me, Nico James-Bock, a Broker and CondoWiz™ at Royal LePage Signature Realty in Toronto.

Looking forward I believe there are a few things we need to remember. We are lucky to live in a place that is one of the most sought after in the world. Over 1 million people came to our country last year and we anticipate another record this year. Everyone needs a home. While there is temporary uncertainty due to today’s rate environment, we know the need for housing has not changed. 

In the months and years to come there will be great opportunity in our real estate market as we benefit from being the fastest growing G7 country in the world. Everyone needs a home and that will result in values rising over time. Let’s be sure we see today’s market for what it is, a market of opportunity. 

The next BOC interest rate announcements:

Wed October 25th

Wed December 6th

Here are you key takeaways:

1. The higher interest rate environment will be here for a while. 2/3 of people own their own home. That is going to continue.  People will find a way onto home ownership.
2. The demand for housing is just going to continue. There is no way we are going to build the homes we need. What does that mean. Prices are going to continue to rise. We’ll be back to double digit home appreciation. Desirable properties that show well and are priced well are seeing bidding wars.  Almost 75% of neighbourhoods however, are in underbidding territory.
3. People are mobile. Particularly young buyers are going to be bouncing around. A network of trusted partners and advisors nationwide. 
4. Opportunities exist for savvy buyers and sellers who are prepared and guided by agents with local expertise and experience. The time to capitalize on these opportunities is now!

That’s it for today’s episode. I hope you are able to take from it those bits of factual information that are relevant to your situation.

I want to mention this podcast is featured in Feedspot Top 25 </

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The GTA resale housing market activity was muted during August due to a seasonal lull in sales during the second half of the summer and as buyers awaited the Bank of Canada’s last interest rate decision on Sept 06th, a rate hold, following its July increase to a 22-year high of 5.0%. This is your recap of the August stats followed by my thoughts and analysis of what is going on in today's residential real estate market. 

If you are planning on entering the real estate market soon or are currently a homeowner, it’s important to follow along with the Bank of Canada’s rate announcements. These rate changes will have a direct impact on the housing market and housing affordability. You’ll be able to manage your expectations of the housing market better and make better decisions when it comes to your home ownership journey and budget.

The next announcements are Oct 25th and Dec 6th. Buyers should be in the market today taking advantage of the current rate hold and looking for those opportunities that exist. Take advantage of First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

September numbers won't be in until the first week in October but I'm seeing a similar pattern play out; softer prices and lower sales volume than seasonal normal. The fall market is the 2nd busiest market.

Affordability will remain a hot topic and controversial issue heading into the fall market. 

On Sept 21st Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled new legislation to implement the promised removal of GST from new rental developments, and to revamp Canada's competition laws, framing the bill as a package that will result in more affordable housing and groceries, eventually.

Key takeaway:

The longer interest rates remain high, the more upward pressure there will be on listings as homeowners face difficulties managing their finances. So far, banks have been very accommodative with borrowers by allowing them to extend out amortizations. However, as more mortgages come up for renewal, more supply and motivated sellers can be expected to arrive on the market. While prices will be supported by demand fundamentals remaining strong due to record high population growth and supply being in a structural deficit, some further downward pressure on prices is possible in the near-term.

That's it for this episode of the Real Estate Podcast with me, Nico James-Bock, a broker with Royal LePage Signature Realty in Downtown Toronto. You can always review the charts posted to my various channels, call me when you feel the need, and/or fire off a quick text or email. 

Ciao Ciao

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Welcome to another episode of the Real Estate Podcast with me, Nico James-Bock. In this episode I recap the recent event that led up to the BoC's rate hold announcement on Sep 06th, including the TRREB August 2023 Market Stats and trends shaping our market. 

Here is my Market Recap for the week ended Sep 09th:  Nico's Quick Facts:

• Affordability in Toronto remains a very controversial issue, exacerbated by misguided government policies + the influx of people pouring into the GTA. 
• Co-ownership has emerged as a way to get into and stay in the market. By co-owning a property (with someone other than their spouse or significant other), homebuyers can not only divide the expense of homeownership among more people, but potentially access larger homes in more desirable locations that they may not have been able to afford on their own.
• The average selling price of all home types was at $1,082,496, remaining around last August's level, up 0.3%.
• Rents continue to go up Average condominium apartment rents continued to well outpace the rate of inflation in the second quarter of 2023. Despite seeing an increase in the number of units listed for rent, competition between renters remained very strong. This competition underpinned higher average rents. The average one-bedroom condo apartment rent was $2,532 in Q2 2023 – up 11.6 per cent compared to Q2 2022. Similarly, the average two-bedroom rent was up by 9.2 per cent over the same period to $3,264. The rent increase guideline in Ontario for 2023 is at that maximum of 2.5 per cent for rent-controlled units. Rent control only applies to units first occupied by anyone, not just the current renter, before Nov. 15, 2018.
• Inventory Levels remain low, not enough to satisfy existing demand, let alone the many hundreds of thousands of newcomers during into the city each year
• Tracking real estate trends is done weekly to be able to provide you with current data. And it has to be done on a micro (neighbourhood) level. The numbers are tremendously helpful. 
• Mortgage rate changes by the Bank of Canada will heavily influence the market, possibly creating opportunities. The Sep 06 rate hold announcement was pivotal and is already having an impact on the market, changing it, moulding it. there was little pressure for the BoC to keep raising rates. My expectation is that this period of "weak economic growth" is set to continue over the rest of this year and into early 2024. Same thing happened: March 8 and April 12th rate holds. Prices trended upwards, buyers were bolstered by the decision and returned to the market. Bank will raise rates if it thinks its necessary to get the inflation rate down to its target 2%
   
   Next: October 25th Interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report
   Dec 6th Final interest rate announcement of 2023

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I was recently asked, what I thought of Artificial Intelligence and if I thought it would one day replace the real estate professional.

My answer? AI definitely has a place in real estate

Realtors often us AI to generate or help bolster content

The recent controversy over AI in the film industry got me thinking...Would I enjoy the movie experience as much if the main players or even the peripheral players were generated by AI? The answer is NO.

In this episode of the The Real Estate Podcast with me, Nico James Bock, I reveal my 5 reasons why AI won't replace the Realtor:

1. If you replace the real estate agent with AI, you are removing a fundamental component of the real estate transaction and the person that brings in other professionals to complete that transaction. Therefore you'll have to replace all of the other players - lawyer, home inspector, appraiser, - with AI. Why not just replace the buyer and seller, or tenant with AI? If you replace 1 player with AI, you'll have to replace all of the main players. Would you allow AI to handle an upcoming operation or would you prefer your doctor to perform the operation? Would you have AI handle a separation agreement with property and kids involved? Which leads me to reason #2
2.  Human Touch and Emotional Intelligence:** Real estate transactions often involve emotions and personal preferences that require a human touch. Your  real estate agent can provide empathy, understanding, and tailored advice that AI might struggle to replicate. **Personalized Guidance:** Every transaction, every property, every person involved in a real estate transaction is unique. Realtors provide personalized guidance, emotional intelligence, experience, real intelligence acquired through training, to ensure the transaction is handled with care and expertise. 
3.  Complex Negotiations:** Negotiating deals, especially in real estate, can be highly intricate and context-dependent. Human agents bring years of experience, intuition, and adaptability to the table, allowing them to navigate complex negotiations effectively.
4.  Local Knowledge and Relationships:** Real estate agents have deep local knowledge and established relationships within their communities. This network provides them with insights about evolving neighbourhoods, market trends, and off-market opportunities that AI may not be able to access accurately.
5.  Condition of a property:** AI won't know what condition your property is in nor will it know if you've done any upgrades or made any major changes. The value of a property is based on 7 factors. AI can't analyze and interpret those factors to arrive at a market value.

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In this episode of The Real Estate Podcast, I provide you with 5 take-aways from the recently released July 2023 TRREB Market Stats.

5 Take-aways:

1. Real Estate is a long-term investment. Hang on!
2. Housing Inventory Fluctuates but we are in a severe need of more housing stock
3. Slight decrease in Buyer Activity 
4. Misalignment in Public Policy as it relates to housing
5. Double Digit Rent Growth in the 2nd Quarter

•We have no control over interest rates. 

•As these higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

•The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

•I mentioned in last month’s overview the fact that we can’t and shouldn’t ignore the impact new immigrants coming into Canada. With Canada’s population growing at a record pace, the medium-term outlook for the GTA housing market remains for the most part, positive. In the short-term, some further caution on the part of buyers can be expected as rates edge up or hover around current levels, although as we move into the 2nd half of 2023 and towards the first quarter of 2024, increased demand for housing coupled with low supply levels should limit any further softening in prices, and in fact we should see a return to an accelerated rate of price appreciation. 

Ciao ciao

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