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    About this Episode

    A number of commentators and analysts have labelled 2023 as an “extraordinary” year in real estate.

    One called 2023 “the year that surprised everyone”.

    Who are these people? They’re the economists (like the ones who work for the big banks and for organisations like CoreLogic and AMP Capital) who got it wrong with their forecasts on what property prices would do this year.

    And rather than admit their mistake – and indeed their ongoing incompetence in this area – they have tried to write it off as an aberration, an outlier, a year that nobody expected.

    And in that regard the economists are wrong, yet again.

    Many of the specialist real estate analysts – like the team at Hotspotting – DID foresee the year that occurred in 2023 and correctly predicted that we would see moderate to strong price growth in most, but not all, markets across Australia.

    The year that unfolded was pretty much exactly what Hotspotting forecast at the start of 2023.

    Our broadcasts and writings in late 2022 and early 2023 predicted a year of price growth, but not a boom year. 

    One example was the annual real estate featured published by Money Magazine in February each year, written by Hotspotting managing director Terry Ryder.

    Here’s what I wrote in that feature at the start of 2023:

    No one is forecasting rises like we saw in 2021, when the national average was an increase above 25%. Rather, most analysts are suggesting moderate growth. That’s certainly how we see it at Hotspotting.

    The failed forecasters working for the big banks, CoreLogic and elsewhere got it wrong and told us prices would fall at least 15% - because they fundamentally do not understand residential real estate.

    They believe interest rates are the over-riding factor.

    Here’s what the economists at CoreLogic wrote recently: “It’s pretty extraordinary to see values get to a new record high despite further uplifts in the rate-hiking cycle.”

    The reality is that there was nothing surprising or extraordinary about the results of 2023. 

    Real estate showed its usual resilience because there were bigger factors in play than interest rates, notably an oversupply of demand and an undersupply of properties for sale and for rent.

    It’s not rocket science. You could teach this to primary school children – but I seriously doubt you could ever teach it to an economist.




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    Negative Gearing Misinformation

    Negative Gearing Misinformation

    One of the reasons we seldom find solutions to serious problems in Australia is that we never seem able to have a calm, honest and rational debate about any of the issues.

    This is particularly true in the housing market, where housing affordability has been an ISSUE OF ENDLESS DEBATE for decades, without any improvement in the situation.

    The rental shortage crisis has been building for years, and there is daily media coverage of the problems, but no one among the political leadership anywhere in Australia has presented any solutions.

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    The standard of debate quickly descends to the gutter, as politicians concentrate on point scoring, indulging pet philosophies and finding scapegoats.

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    Another myth is that everyone who owns an investment property gets tax deductions through negative gearing. That also is very untrue – and I’m an example. I’ve been buying properties since the 1980s and I have never claimed negative gearing tax benefits.

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    Other misinformation about negative gearing relate to how much it costs the Federal Budget – always exaggerated quite dishonestly by the Greens and others – and the claim that ALL property investors claim negative gearing benefits.

    Perhaps the biggest lie is that negative gearing is responsible for rising prices and poor affordability.

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    The reality is that MOST buyers in the market, overwhelmingly, are HOME BUYERS - and that they comprise the MAJOR force for competition for dwellings and therefore for upward pressure on house prices.

    My estimate is that, currently, less than 15% of buyers in the market are negatively-geared property investors – and it’s difficult to argue that they somehow overpower the other 85% and cause prices to rise.

    There are more first-home buyers in the market than there are negatively-geared investors.

    But those investors are often blamed for the high prices paid by first-time buyers – but, in reality, expensive housing is caused by the politicians who are adept at blaming others.

    Can you buy under $750,000?

    Can you buy under $750,000?

    It’s really disheartening sometimes to see how bad the media coverage of real estate is in Australia.

    The media’s standard treatment of the affordability issue is a prime example. Mainstream media delights in running the story line that first-home buyers are priced out of the market and that’s not even worth trying to find a home.

    That story has run pretty much every day, somewhere in the national media, for not just years but for decades.

    One particularly ridiculous treatment of this cliché came with a headline that asked whether it was “really possible” to find “a home in an Australian capital city for under $750,000” and a story that suggested that it was almost IMPOSSIBLE to achieve.

    This article, like so many on the subject, was shallow, pointless and just plain wrong.

    Here’s the reality. The median dwelling price in Perth, according to PropTrack, is currently $640,000 – which means half of all sales are for less than $640,000.

    So, can you find a home for under $750,000 in Perth? Obviously, even in the hot Perth market, there are myriad possibilities.

    In Adelaide, the median price is slightly over $700,000 – which, again, means half of all homes are selling for less than that figure. No problem finding a home under $750,000 in the South Australian capital.

    Darwin? The median price is $480,000.

    Hobart? The median there is $670,000.

    Even in larger and more expensive cities like Melbourne and Brisbane, the medians are around $790,000 – so also lots of options below $750,000 there as well.

    Nationally, according to PropTrack, the median dwelling price is $760,000 – and, to labour the point, that means half of all sales for prices lower than $760,000.

    So why would a media outlet that wants to be taken seriously suggest it’s almost impossible to find.

    Clearly, this article and its headline, like so many, are inaccurate and blatantly dishonest.

    The objective here, of course, is NOT to help people. Media’s objective is NEVER to be helpful.

    The goal is to alarm, to dismay, to startle.

    Shame on the journalist who wrote it and on the media outlets that published it.

    Another of the things media always does, in its efforts to perpetuate the fallacy about affordability, is to completely ignore ATTACHED dwellings as part of the solution.

    For young Australians, and many other buyer cohorts as well, units and townhouses are valid options in the search for well-located homes at affordable prices.

    Earlier in this commentary, I gave the median dwelling prices for most of the capital cities of Australia and showed that there were lots of options under $750,000.

    The exception, of course, is Australia’s most expensive city, Sydney. 

    But for buyers happy to consider units and townhouses as potential solutions, even Sydney provides lots of options.

    According to PropTrack, the median unit price for Sydney is currently $790,000. Half of all sales have been below this figure, so clearly buyers can find options below that benchmark of $750,000 set by that shallow media publication.

    The median unit price across the capital cities of Australia a little under $650,000.

    In regional Australia, it’s $555,000.

    Why does mainstream media never consider units when discussing housing affordability?

    Because it doesn’t suit their preferred narrative, which is to tell people that there are no affordable options anywhere and they should be outraged.

    As I said, media’s objective is NOT to be helpful. Their goal is to create clickbait and they’re willing to be dishonest and inaccurate in achieving that.

    Hotspotting
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    In this episode, Steve shares his extensive knowledge of the differences between residential and commercial property investments, debunking common myths that may have been holding you back. He also discusses the rising trend of commercial property investments and how you can tap into this lucrative market.

    Steve's unique journey from being a chartered engineer to a leading figure in property investment and education makes him the perfect guest for our podcast. With well over 1000 properties secured for his clients and a diverse portfolio across Australia, Steve's expertise is second to none.

    But the best part is, Steve has generously offered our Hotspotting viewers a free copy of his book on commercial property investment. This is a valuable resource for both new and seasoned investors looking to maximize their returns and diversify their portfolios. Don't miss out on this insightful conversation with one of the industry's best.

    Tune in to our latest episode of Hotspotting Podcast and learn how you can benefit from commercial property investments with Steve Palise of Palise Property.

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    Dishonest Politicians

    Dishonest Politicians

    The man in the image behind me is Australia’s most dishonest politician.

     

    I know this is a big statement, because Australian politics abounds with dishonesty, deception and bastardry.

     

    We have a Federal Government which has routinely broken its election promises, including the ones about tax cuts and about taxation of superannuation, and they’ve been in power less than two years.

     

    We have politicians on all sides of the political divide who habitually tell lies in Parliament and in front of the media, as the current Federal Government did on the issue of implementing the promised tax cuts.

     

    They were still lying about that the week before they finally admitted they wouldn’t be implementing the tax cuts as promised at the election and repeatedly since then.

     

    They say we get the politicians we deserve and in Australia we certainly do, because we don’t punish the politicians who lie to us.

     

    But Adam Bandt, the Federal Leader of the Greens, is at another level of dishonesty.

     

    He constantly and consistently misrepresents the housing industry and the people who participate in it, in the interests of achieving media profile and presenting himself as the saviour of those who rent.

     

    He is, in fact, the opposite of their saviour. He’s their nemesis. If his policies on the rental market were implemented, it would turn the current rental shortage crisis into a catastrophe, with vacancies even lower than the current average of just 1%, which is already an historically low figure.

     

    But Bandt appears to believe his stance is a vote winner and he’s happy to lie to achieve his goals.

     

    Every time he speaks on this issue, he seeks to characterise the average investor as someone who owns 6 or 8 properties and wants more.

     

    The official data from the ATO shows that less than 1% own more than five properties. 90% of those who own investment properties own 1 or 2, of which 72% own just one. 

     

    And they’re mostly people on average incomes, trying to improve their financial situation. They are not, as the Greens leader claims, the wealthy elite of the nation with massive property portfolios, ripping off the taxation system.

     

    Bandt also frequently blames investors for high property prices and poor affordability, without presenting any evidence to back up his sweeping statements – and ignoring the reality that investors comprise less than 30% of buyers and that most of the people out there competing for dwellings – and therefore pushing up property prices - are home buyers, including first-home buyers.

     

    There has been a number of independent research studies recently on the major drivers of high property prices – and I emphasise that these are genuine research studies, not sweeping statements by attention-seeking minor politicians or people with a vested interest in the argument.

     

    Reports by the NSW Productivity Commission and by think tank The Centre for Independent Studies have both independently concluded that the biggest reason prices and rents have risen is planning restrictions by politicians and bureaucrats, particularly those that prevent greater density of development in existing suburbs.

     

    These reports argue that rising prices have not been caused by negative gearing or other investor influences, but by planning restrictions which have prevented a good supply of affordable new dwellings.

     

    But the Greens happily ignore these inconvenient truths.

     

    And if Bandt has his way, investors will be hounded out of existence, because property investment will be no longer viable if his policies were implemented.

     

    And the issue that political parasites like Adam Bandt never address is this: if you squash property investors the way he and his cohorts want to, where are the rental properties coming from?

     

    New data from Australia’s best research analyst, Simon Pressley of Propertyology, confirms there are 3.5 million rental homes in Australia - and 3.2 million of them are provided by private investors.

     

    That’s 91.4% of rental homes supplied by everyday mum-and-dad investors. Only 300,000 rental homes are provided by government.

     

    If you drum investors out of existence, as this idiot wants to do, there needs to be a plan for how you replace those three million homes provided by the investors that the Greens want to squash.

     

    Presumably they expect state governments to step up and provide all the rental dwellings that the nation needs.

     

    And the cost of providing 3.2 million rental homes – conservatively – is $1,300 billion. 

     

    Can anyone suggest a state or territory government in this country which has a few hundred billion dollars to spare to replace what is currently provided by mum-and-dad investors.

     

    Mr Bandt – what’s your policy for achieving this?

     

    It’s a rhetorical question – I know you don’t have one.

    All you have is a burning and rather unsettling hatred for anyone who owns an investment property.

     

    Leap Day Special

    Leap Day Special

    There are two standout factors for investors to be aware of when seeking capital growth in the current market.

     

    One is that two of the smaller capital cities are the national leaders on price growth and the other is that apartment locations are among the best performers in the nation.

     

    The Perth boom has been well-publicised and many investors are keen to be part of the growth that has been occurring in the WA capital.

     

    In our latest report, we have broadened the scope to include some key regional WA locations which also provide good prospects for growth, as well as affordability and strong rental yields.

     

    The market that has been challenging Perth for the title of national growth leader is Adelaide, which actually out-performed Perth on the increase in median house prices in 2023, according to some of the major research sources.

     

    Adelaide continues to provide broad appeal for investors, as it remains one of the nation’s most affordable city markets, with ongoing strong prospects for price increases as this market is underpinned by Australia’s No.1 economy, according to the State of States report published by CommSec.

     

    Adelaide also has the lowest vacancy rate in capital city Australia, alongside Perth, with significant growth in residential rentals as a consequence.

     

    Our new edition of Top 5 Adelaide Hotspots highlights the areas in the SA capital that we believe have the credentials for ongoing increases in property values.

     

    The big emerging new trend in Australian real estate is the rise and rise of well-located apartments as a target for more and more buyers across the nation.

     

    Many of the key cohorts of buyers – including downsizers, first-time buyers, lifestyle buyers and investors seeking affordability and higher rental yields – are choosing to buy attached dwellings.

     

    And we are seeing a rising number of instances where units are out-performing houses on capital growth. 

     

    In locations right across Australia, there are numerous suburbs where the growth in the median price has been higher for units than for houses, both in the past 12 months and in the longer term.

     

    Apartments are considerably cheaper than houses on land and usually offer significantly higher rental yields, so they are increasingly worthy of consideration by investors.

     

    To help our customers tap into these key growth markets across Australia, we have created a special bundle of three reports – the Perth, Adelaide and national apartments reports – which can be accessed in one purchase at an attractively low price.

     

    Buying this Leap Day Bundle can give you key information about the nation’s leading growth markets and save you over $200, compared to buying each of the reports separately.

    Hotspotting
    enFebruary 19, 2024

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