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    Predicting Landslides: After Disaster, Alaska Town Turns To Science

    en-usOctober 03, 2022

    Podcast Summary

    • The power of storytelling in inspiring and making us thinkLearning from past crises and the importance of community support during times of uncertainty.

      The power of storytelling comes from inspiring and making us think, as demonstrated by the BBC and the events in Sitka, Alaska. The town, known for its abundant rain, was forever changed when a landslide caused by heavy rain took the lives of three people and left the community in a state of precarity. The incident served as a reminder of the unpredictability of nature and the importance of community support during times of crisis. The Sitka Sound Science Center, led by Lisa Busch, sought answers to prevent future disasters, emphasizing the significance of learning from such experiences.

    • Creating a Landslide Early Warning System in Sitka, AlaskaCommunity and scientists collaborated to create a landslide early warning system using a simple traffic light system, which took 7 years and $2.1 million. Determining which hillsides are at risk is crucial to prevent future disasters.

      After the devastating landslide in Sitka, Alaska, the community came together with scientists to create a landslide early warning system. This system, which just launched last month, uses a simple traffic light system to alert residents of the current and forecasted risk of landslides. Developing this system took seven years and a $2.1 million grant from the National Science Foundation. The need for such a system was evident, as parents were still asking the school district if it was safe to send their children to school even a year after the tragedy. Geologist Jason Schmidt explained that determining which hillsides are at risk of sliding is crucial, and he took Emily and Erin to the origin point of an old landslide to illustrate this concept. This collaboration between scientists and the community demonstrates how expertise and local knowledge can come together to prevent future disasters.

    • Unstable Sitka geology prone to landslides due to young land and heavy rainfallResearch in Sitka, Alaska reveals young, loose land structure increases landslide risk, and heavy rainfall is a significant trigger

      The unstable geology of Sitka, Alaska, combined with heavy rainfall, can lead to dangerous landslides. The area's young land, which includes layers of forest, volcanic ash, glacial till, and bedrock, is not as compacted as older land. This loose structure, revealed by the ability to rub tephra between fingers and have glacial till break off with minimal effort, makes the land prone to sliding. Old landslide scars in the area suggest that new landslides are likely to form in their footprints. The Forest Service had been keeping track of landslides in the area for the past 50 years, and this historical data was instrumental in understanding the risk. Researchers Annette Patton and Josh Roaring aimed to determine the rainfall amount and duration that could trigger a landslide. By combining the landslide inventory with Sitka's rain records, they hoped to uncover the timescale of heavy rainfall that poses the greatest risk.

    • Predicting and preventing landslides with data and community collaborationScientific discovery of rainfall pattern leading to destructive landslides, creation of early warning system using algorithm, community involvement in project, increasing importance with extreme rainfall due to climate change

      Data analysis and community collaboration can help predict and prevent catastrophic landslides caused by heavy rainfall. Annette, a scientist, discovered a pattern in the last decade's most destructive landslides, which all experienced significant rainfall within a 3-hour interval. This discovery led to the creation of Sitka's early warning system, which uses an algorithm to calculate the probability of landslides based on rainfall data and soil conditions. The community was involved in the project, contributing traditional knowledge and identifying key individuals to spread the word about the warning system. As climate change brings about more extreme rainfall, this innovative approach to geohazard science and human preparedness is becoming increasingly important. Other communities are also taking notice of Sitka's project.

    • Using Science to Prepare for Natural Hazards in Rural AlaskaScience project Kootpe aims to create a regional warning system for natural hazards in rural Alaska, recognizing their inevitability and focusing on mitigation. Community member Lisa Bush highlights the importance of adapting to live with these hazards and the resilience of communities in the face of challenges.

      Science is being used to help communities in rural and tribal areas of Southeast Alaska better prepare for and respond to natural hazards like flooding, avalanches, and landslides. The NSF-funded project, called Kootpe, aims to create a regional warning system for these hazards, recognizing that they cannot be stopped but can be mitigated. Lisa Bush, a community member in Sitka, emphasizes the importance of adapting to live with these natural hazards and the heartening efforts of the community to do so. This project is an excellent example of how science can be used to keep people safe and is a testament to the resilience of communities in the face of challenges. Emily Kuang reported on this story for NPR, and it was produced by Chloe Weiner, edited and fact checked by Gabriel Spitzer, and engineered by Ko Takasugi Chernevin. Special thanks to KCAW Sitka and various individuals in the community for their contributions to the story. This episode was also supported by Easycater, a company that simplifies corporate catering needs, and The Bid, a podcast by BlackRock where Larry Fink discusses challenges facing investors.

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