Podcast Summary
Sudan's democratic journey derailed by military coup: Military leaders' power struggle results in instability and Internet access challenges, delaying Sudan's democratic progress. International community urges negotiation for democratic process restart.
Sudan's journey towards democracy took a turn for the worse when two military leaders, Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Hamdan Dagalu, staged a coup in 2021, ending the hopes of the Sudanese people for a democratic government. This power struggle between the head of the army and the head of a paramilitary force, both former rivals under the ousted dictator Omar al Bashir, has resulted in a stalemate and constant instability in the country. The Internet is often inaccessible, making communication and information gathering challenging. The international community has been urging both sides to return to the negotiating table and restart the democratic process. The complex situation in Sudan is reminiscent of a spy thriller, and for those who enjoy such stories, FX's The Veil, an international spy thriller featuring Elisabeth Moss, might be worth checking out. Simplifying complex situations can lead to greater focus and control, much like how Mercury simplifies financial workflows for businesses.
Power Struggle Over Rapid Support Forces in Sudan: Military leaders al-Burhan and Hemeti are locked in a power struggle over control of the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in urban warfare in Khartoum and putting civilians in danger.
The ongoing conflict between Sudan's military leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), centers around who will have control over the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in partnerships with civilian powers. The army wants the RSF to come under its command, while the RSF aspires to be a standalone force. This rivalry led to urban warfare in Khartoum, with the RSF embedding themselves in civilian neighborhoods, resulting in catastrophic street-by-street fighting that puts civilians in grave danger. The situation is terrifying for residents, with no real protection from the gunfire and aerial bombardment. It's essential to note that both military leaders are fighting it out for control over the country, and it's currently unclear which side holds the upper hand militarily.
Power struggle between Sudanese military and RSF led by Hemedti: The complex and protracted power struggle in Sudan between the military and RSF, led by Hemedti, is fueled by the RSF's size, training, and equipment, human rights violations, and foreign support from Russia and its proxy Wagner.
The ongoing power struggle in Sudan between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Hemedti, is complex and protracted due to the RSF's significant size, training, and equipment, which make them a formidable force. The RSF, while acting as a de facto infantry for the Sudanese army, has been implicated in human rights violations and is not bound by the same laws of engagement as the Sudanese army. Russia, through its proxy militia Wagner, has played a malevolent role in Sudan's democracy, exploiting Sudan's resources to fund Russia's war in Ukraine. Hemedi's relationship with Russia and Wagner has allowed Putin and Russian officialdom to keep their hands clean while spreading influence across Africa. The involvement of other countries, such as Russia and potentially others, in Sudan remains a concern as the power struggle continues.
International powers supporting preferred strongmen in Sudan's conflict: The international community, including the US, failed to act swiftly enough to prevent Sudan's crisis, contributing to the complex conflict and high death tolls.
The ongoing conflict in Sudan is a complex web of regional and global power plays, with international powers supporting their preferred strongmen, ultimately leading to the counter coup against the Sudanese people's will. The responsibility for this situation falls on both the military for partnering with Hemedti and the international community, including the United States, for not acting swiftly enough to prevent the crisis. The editor at The Economist suggests that Sudan is part of a larger trend of new wars characterized by complexity, foreign involvement, and high death tolls. The international community, including the United States, who are currently evacuating their diplomatic personnel, are the same powers that failed to act when warned of the potential for bloodshed on Sudan's streets. The US, in particular, was contacted by civilians expressing concerns about the conflict and the risk of violence, but did not respond with sufficient pressure. This lack of action has left Sudan in a precarious position, and the international community must now act to support the country in a meaningful way.
Foreign involvement in civil wars making conflicts more complex: Foreign meddling, impunity, criminality, climate change, and religious extremism fuel the increasing number and complexity of civil conflicts around the world, making them harder to resolve.
The number and duration of civil conflicts around the world are increasing and becoming more complex, driven by factors such as foreign meddling, a culture of impunity and criminality, climate change, and religious extremism. According to Robert Guest, deputy editor at The Economist, the involvement of foreign forces in civil wars has risen significantly since the end of the Cold War, making conflicts more complex and harder to resolve. The erosion of global norms and the financial incentives for individuals to engage in conflict, particularly in corrupt countries, further fuel these conflicts. Additionally, factors like climate change and religious extremism add to the complexity and duration of conflicts. For example, in Sudan, the ongoing conflict can be seen as a continuation of a long-standing issue, with various belligerent groups and external forces involved, making it difficult to achieve a peaceful resolution.
Deteriorating global peace and increasing conflicts: Climate change worsens resource scarcity, leading to conflicts and displacement. Major powers fail to intervene, making conflicts harder to resolve.
The adherence to global norms and the maintenance of peace have deteriorated in recent years, leading to an increase in conflicts and displacement. The siege of Monrovia in Liberia and current conflicts in countries like Darfur, Congo, and Mali are evidence of this trend. Climate change exacerbates these issues by causing resource scarcity and displacement, leading to tensions and violence. The lack of intervention from major powers and the weakening of peacekeeping missions have made it difficult to stop these conflicts, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine being a notable exception. The current global climate is marked by instability, with conflicts over resources and ethnic tensions becoming more frequent and more violent.
Struggling with Religious Extremism in Africa and Middle East: Effective strategies to address religious extremism include finding respected mediators, starting unofficial talks, and including women and civil society groups in peace processes, but implementation is challenging due to the intransigence of extremist groups and their prioritization of power and wealth over the country's well-being, as seen in Sudan.
Religious extremism has contributed significantly to the instability and conflicts in parts of Africa and the Middle East since the Arab Spring. Extremist groups, such as those affiliated with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, have been competing to establish new kingdoms and overthrow governments, leading to coups and ungovernable countries. To address these devastating cyclical conflicts, effective strategies include finding respected mediators, starting unofficial talks before belligerents are ready, and including more women and civil society groups in peace processes. However, implementation of these strategies is challenging, as those who include women and civil society groups may be less brutal and intransigent. Sudan, currently in a state of confusion, is an example of a country struggling with these issues, as its leaders prioritize their own power and wealth over the country's well-being.
