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    TSB flotation, Scottish independence and fracking

    enMay 28, 2014

    Podcast Summary

    • Creative pricing strategies by Mint Mobile and Sleep NumberCompanies like Mint Mobile and Sleep Number are using innovative pricing methods to offer affordable prices to consumers amidst inflation, with Mint Mobile using a reverse auction and Sleep Number individualizing sleep comfort with smart beds.

      Companies are finding creative ways to offer affordable prices to consumers amidst inflation. Mint Mobile, for instance, used a reverse auction to lower its wireless plan prices to just $15 a month. Similarly, Sleep Number is individualizing sleep comfort with its smart beds. In the business world, Lloyds is floating TSB on the stock market, and investors are eager to see if it will be a profitable investment. Despite some recent listing flops, Henderson's Matthew Beasley believes banks can be interesting investments when they are undergoing restructuring and are undervalued. Meanwhile, the future of TSB shares, Scottish independence, and fracking were discussed on The Money Show podcast.

    • TSB's Lower Market Shares Offer Opportunity for GrowthTSB's smaller market shares and lower income per branch position it for growth, but concerns around mortgage market timing and infrastructure investment loom

      TSB, the 7th largest retail bank in the UK with 631 branches, presents an investment opportunity due to its inefficiencies and potential for growth. Despite having a similar number of branches as larger competitors, TSB's market shares for current accounts and mortgages are significantly lower. This translates to lower income per branch, making it ripe for improvement. The management team aims to sell more products through the existing infrastructure, leading to increased profits. However, concerns arise around the timing of the IPO in the mortgage market, where the existing book, inherited from Lloyds, is sensitive to interest rate rises, but new mortgage business may be less profitable due to extended mortgage approvals and rising house prices. TSB has also been cautious with dividends, not paying any until at least 2017 when they will start paying more for infrastructure services from Lloyds, incentivizing them to build their own distribution infrastructure.

    • TSB's Dividend Freeze and Scottish Referendum DiscussionTSB won't pay dividends for 3-4 years, shares expected to trade around book value with returns barely above cost of capital. Scottish referendum outcome uncertain, financial services industry could pose challenges in creating a separate financial system.

      TSB, the UK-based retail bank, will not be paying dividends to investors for at least the next 3 to 4 years due to the need to build up excess capital. This is a significant difference from other banks like Lloyds, which have the prospect of paying dividends sooner. Additionally, TSB's shares are expected to trade around book value, but the returns they will make are only just above their cost of capital for the next few years. This suggests that the shares will not be particularly attractively valued. Another topic discussed was the upcoming Scottish independence referendum, where Scotland's financial services industry, a significant contributor to the Scottish economy, would pose a challenge in creating a separate financial system. The outcome of the referendum is uncertain, and the economic forecasts and promises made by both sides will play a crucial role in influencing voters.

    • Potential falls in sterling and increased uncertainty for Scottish financial servicesA yes vote for Scottish independence could lead to increased volatility in sterling, uncertainty for Scottish financial services, and potential major constitutional transformations.

      A yes vote for Scottish independence could lead to increased volatility and potential falls in the value of sterling, as well as increased transactional costs and potential capital flows for Scottish companies and investment trusts. The markets are not prepared for this outcome and are currently expecting a no vote to prevail. UBS Wealth Management, which serves relatively well-off individuals, is seeing large precautionary concerns from clients, but the consensus view is that the no vote will prevail. If a yes vote does occur, it would usher in a period of extended uncertainty and could potentially lead to major constitutional transformations, including formal currency arrangements or unions. The impact on Scottish financial services companies and energy firms, as well as investment trusts, would depend on the extent of these transformations and the resulting transactional costs and currency risks.

    • Scottish independence referendum and its potential impact on investorsInvestors worry about Scottish independence referendum's effect on asset values, portfolio diversification, currency risk, and banking arrangements. Shifts in fiscal dependency may lead to changes in business taxation and incentives. US shale gas and oil industry's self-sufficiency contrasts UK's ongoing reliance on imports and local opposition to fracking.

      The potential Scottish independence referendum has investors concerned about asset values and portfolio diversification, particularly regarding currency risk and banking arrangements. If Scotland votes to secede, fiscal dependency is expected to shift, potentially leading to changes in business taxation and incentives. Meanwhile, the shale gas and oil industry in the US has significantly impacted the economy by making the country virtually self-sufficient, but the controversial process of extracting these resources through fracking faces local opposition in the UK.

    • Small oil reserves in the UK's Weald area won't significantly change energy balanceThe UK's small oil reserves in the Weald area won't have a major impact on the country's energy balance, despite government push for fracking and community payments due to opposition and environmental risks.

      Despite the potential for significant oil reserves in the Weald area of the UK, the extractable amount is relatively small and will not drastically change the country's energy balance. The government is pushing for fracking with tax incentives and community payments, but popular opposition remains strong. The environmental risks, such as groundwater contamination and methane emissions, are under scrutiny, and while some argue that proper construction and precautions minimize risks, others remain skeptical. At this stage, there is not yet an established industry for individuals to invest in the UK.

    • The UK's shale gas industry is still in its infancy and significant returns are not imminentThe UK's shale gas industry is not on the brink of becoming a major profit source for investors due to the long wait for drilling and discovery

      The UK shale gas industry, led by companies like Quadrilla Resources, is still in its early stages and investing in it is quite speculative due to the long wait for drilling and discovery. While European oil giants like Total and Centrica have shown interest, significant returns are not expected soon. Therefore, the UK is not on the brink of becoming a "country for old men" in terms of shale gas profits. If you're interested in learning more about this topic or sharing your thoughts, connect with FT Money through Twitter (@FTMoney), their website (ft.com/money), or email (money@ft.com). For other topics and additional downloads, visit ft.com/podcasts. Lastly, remember that extra care is always necessary, especially when it comes to health care. UnitedHealthcare's Health ProtectorGuard fixed indemnity insurance plans, underwritten by Golden Rule Insurance Company, can help you manage out-of-pocket costs. For more information, visit uhone.com. And when it comes to celebrating life's special occasions, 1800flowers.com goes the extra mile to deliver smiles. Learn more at 1800flowers.com/acast.

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    Episode #0034 - Why your food package is getting smaller!

    Episode #0034 - Why your food package is getting smaller!

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    Have you noticed that some items - like cereals etc or the number of bags of chips in a multipack is getting smaller or fewer?

    What would you say if your pint of milk (or beer!) gets slightly smaller every year - but the price tag stays the same?

    This is called shrinkflation

     

    Have you ever thought about pack sizes getting smaller? Have you thought when you're eating your favourite cereal or drinking your favourite cans of Coke got these packs are getting smaller than they used to be? Maybe it's just me or is it happening, our packs getting smaller?

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    This is a concept called shrinkflation, it's a term that people use just to describe products pack sizes getting smaller. I suppose a good example of that would be cereal. Cereal boxes have got smaller and often when they've got smaller they've changed the bundle or the mix of products. For instance, kids products now offer a range of smaller pack sizes for one almost like portion control but seven of them in a packet. But all of them are much smaller than they used to be so there's a mixed thing happening here as well as shrinking product size.

    I think different value drivers have smaller packages and I think we're going to cover that in a future episode. But really in this episode, we want to drill into is the right choice for a manufacturer of consumer goods, food and drink is what we're talking about. Is it the right thing to think that customers would prefer static prices? A dollar today is a dollar tomorrow, or would they just more happily pay the 10% increase? A lot of companies fear putting through price increases, the fear that there will be a drop off in demand and the price elasticity will mean that demand will fall. Is that true? Or, are they tricking the customers? or are they tricking themselves?

    Well, I think the assumption here is that customers are very price sensitive and if they were to learn on a price increase that they wouldn't buy the product. Therefore, manufacturers are making pack sizes smaller to prevent that from happening. Is that true? Has it been tested? No, because what manufacturers tend to do is avoid that sort of awkward conversation with consumers and, in turn, they reduce the pack size. What does that reducing the pack size mean? They're trying to increase margins on the cost side by reducing their costs as opposed to thinking about pricing and demand for their product and having a frank conversation with consumers saying, if you want this product this is the price and we'll have to increase the price if you want more or less. These are the reasons why that sort of conversation hasn't happened so people are now focusing on maximising margins by reducing costs.

    I personally think the companies are kidding themselves a bit with this. The example I always give is if people are used to buying things in certain amounts or sizes, like a pint of milk, or a pint of beer. If I give you the example of a man who went to a bar or a lady of course who went to a bar and bought a pint of beer and if year by year that pint of beer was getting smaller and smaller but the cost is staying the same, at a certain point in time they would think it's getting ridiculous. I think that applies to most situations. I also think that when pack sizes decrease in size customers aren't going to or if you decrease the packet of a box of cornflakes by 10%, you're not going to an average buy an extra box every 10 boxes, you are in theory you’re just going to buy less of it. What the companies are doing to some extent is, they are just decreasing the volume and putting a cap on the sales and the monetary value of the sales also.

    I suppose another assumption here is that a lot of consumers maybe don't know that the pack sizes are getting smaller, it's not a massive concern of theirs, they sort of overlook it from day to day, and through that sort of psychological humans sort of just getting used to things day-on-day. You don't notice manufacturers could cut costs by reducing the pack size because nobody's making a complaint about it. However, I suppose like everything, there are different segments in the market and some customers do notice. The question is, would they be willing to pay more even for a smaller pack size versus a bigger pack size?  And the answer is, manufacturers don't know, they haven't asked that question because they keep sidetracking.

    This shrinkflation was the word Joanna use, my personal view is that this stems from a real dedication to the cost-plus mentality. Fundamentally, you're not thinking about what the customer wants, you're purely thinking about cost and margin and accounting and those sort of aspects. Why is the customer buying that pack size? Why is the customer buying that pint of beer or that box of cornflakes? The cost comes in but it's the value that they get from it. So, are you shrinking the box size based on the value to the customer? or are you simply shrinking it from a cost-plus accounting approach? I can understand with family sizes and household units, it might make more sense to have seven disposable units in your box of cornflakes that you open morning today if you're one person, but shrinking it by 10%, tricking the customer. Fundamentally,  think that's you’re only tricking yourself.

    I think there's one company that recently came out Mandalas, about the reasons for shrinkflation and they associated the smaller pack size with the new trends for health, we're making this smaller because people need to learn how to manage their diet. They need to know what calorie counts are in each of these boxes, we need to get that chocolate bar under 100 calories for instance, like portion control. But other than that, I haven't heard of another manufacturer using that sort of customer value driver for health as a reason for shrinking the box sizes, that's a sort of a new announcement really in FMCG. It's probably something we're going to hear a lot more, it's for our benefit. It could be like a tokenistic phrase but, is that the reason? I think it's still about reducing costs to maximise margins as opposed to demand.

    I think in that instance that the example given of the calorie counting etc. I almost think that's a value add, and I think a lot of people will pay more for that. It's almost like having a personal trainer, looking over your shoulder and saying no-no to that extra piece of rice or that extra chips. So to some extent, I would say you should have increased prices in that scenario, but I think that's a topic we intend to cover in a future episode.

    I suppose this last example I'd like to give is that there are some packs that have been reduced in size and I'm thinking even household goods like washing powder, they're getting smaller in size too. Over years they get smaller and then after a while you get a value pack with 20% more introduced but actually, that value pack is the same size as the original size when that product was first launched. But the price hasn't changed, you're not getting 20% more, you're probably the price is sort of you're paying more than you would have done before. So, even though they're shrinking products when they reintroduce value packs it was sort of that the normal size pack that you would have had three years ago.

    Yeah, so, let's all go to Costco and stock up. I've been doing that over the last few months in my bunker, but I don't recommend it to everyone because we don't want panic buying. So that's it for me today.

    #050 »Die Inflation schlagen« mit Dr. Hermann Simon

    #050 »Die Inflation schlagen« mit Dr. Hermann Simon
    »Geld ist verderbliches Gut geworden – und man darf auf keinen Fall der Geldillusion unterliegen!« Was das für die Unternehmen jetzt bedeutet ist die große Preisfrage für Dr. Hermann Simon. Im wahrsten Sinne. Er gehört zu den führenden Denkern, Beratern und Autoren für pricing, Vertrieb, Marketing, Management und mehr. Und hat in dieser Folge Antworten. Was ist ganz konkret zu tun, um sein Business sicher durch Zeiten der Inflation zu bringen? Gewinne schmälern? Preiserhöhungen weitergeben? Hermann Simon bricht das komplexe Thema auf konkrete Tipps runter. Außerdem gehen wir gedanklich nach Rom, unter die Dusche und zum Pizzabäcker nebenan. Und bekommen so persönliche Einblicke in das Leben des Experten, die bis an den Ort seiner Geburt zurückgehen. Dr. Hermann Simon hat bereits über 40 Bücher geschrieben, übersetzt in mehr als 30 Sprachen. Er lehrte weltweit an den führenden Universitäten wie Harvard und Stanford, hat die Top-Management-Etagen beraten. Und ist selbst Unternehmer als Chairman des Consultingunternehmens Simon, Kucher & Partners, der führenden deutschen Unternehmensberatung für Vertrieb und Marketing sowie Weltmarktführer in der Preisberatung. Sein neues Buch »Die Inflation schlagen. Agil, konkret, effektiv.« ist 2022 im Campus Verlag erschienen. /// Link zum Buch https://www.campus.de/buecher-campus-verlag/business/management-unternehmensfuehrung/die_inflation_schlagen-17384.html /// Link zum Autor https://www.campus.de/autoren/autoren-a-z/hermann_simon-443.html /// Link zu erwähnten Studien, Beratungen, aktuelle Entwicklungen https://www.simon-kucher.com/en?page=2

    We’re Raising Wages for Everybody

    We’re Raising Wages for Everybody
    This week, Paul Downs, Jay Goltz, and Dana White talk about confronting inflation, raising their prices, what businesses owe their employees, and the venture-backed competitor who’s opening a store in Jay’s backyard. Among the questions we discuss are: Would you take back a rebound employee? Are unemployment payments the main reason owners are struggling to fill jobs? Is there anything wrong with taking business from another business? How many companies are truly disruptive? And do owners take all of the risk? Or are there risks for employees, too?