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    Ukraine repulses attacks in the Donbas and the changing face of Russia's cyber war

    enMarch 29, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Flexibility and affordability in health insurance and mobile phone plansUnitedHealthcare Insurance Plans offer flexible and budget-friendly medical, dental, and vision coverage, while Min Mobile lowers prices for unlimited data plans to $15 a month.

      Flexibility and affordability are key themes in both health insurance and mobile phone plans. UnitedHealthcare Insurance Plans, underwritten by Golden Rule Insurance Company, offer flexible and budget-friendly medical, dental, and vision coverage. Meanwhile, Min Mobile is defying industry trends by lowering its prices, making unlimited data plans more affordable at $15 a month. In the news, Ukraine continues to face intense fighting, with updates from Melitopol where Ukrainian forces have reportedly hit a railway depot. The latest US assessment puts Russian losses at over 220,000 soldiers killed or injured. Despite these challenges, Ukraine's leaders are seeking a military strategy to gain a decisive advantage and end the war.

    • Ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine with intense fighting and cyber warfareRussian forces push back on key supply routes but maintain control with artillery cover. Ukrainian forces face encirclement in Avdifka. Russian hackers target civilian infrastructure in full-scale cyber warfare, aligning with military aggression.

      The conflict in Eastern Ukraine continues to unfold with intense fighting around the cities of Bakmut and Avdifka. The Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, has been pushed back from key supply routes, specifically the 0506 highway, allowing Ukrainian forces to maintain access to essential resources. However, Russia still maintains control of the area with artillery cover. In Avdifka, Russian troops are employing similar tactics, attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian cyber defense agency, Triple SCIP, has reported a full-scale cyber war against Ukraine, with Russian hackers targeting civilian infrastructure to paralyze the country's resistance. The goals of the hackers align with Russia's military aggression, and the targets shift based on the military situation. Overall, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine remains complex, with ongoing fighting on the ground and a persistent cyber warfare threat.

    • Russian cyber attacks targeting Western cybersecurity companies in UkraineRussian cyber attacks against Ukrainian authorities and cyber defenders have expanded to target Western countries' cybersecurity firms in Ukraine, potentially leading to attacks on their servers and services analyzing malware in the West.

      The Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine have escalated to targeting not only Ukrainian authorities and information security specialists, but also Ukrainian cyber defenders and Western cybersecurity companies providing support to Ukraine. This marks a new phase in the cyber war, with potential consequences for Western organizations assisting Ukraine. The Russians are reportedly targeting these companies at their deployments in Ukraine, which could lead to attacks on the servers and services analyzing malicious software in the West. This brings up philosophical questions about the potential spillover of these attacks onto broader Western allies of Ukraine. While this development may not come as a surprise to those closely following the situation, it underscores the seriousness and potential escalation of the cyber war between Russia and Ukraine, and by extension, Western allies.

    • Expanding Cyber Conflict: Russia Targets Poland, Baltics, and NordicsRussia's cyberattacks on Ukraine are expanding to target Western allies, including Poland, Baltics, and Nordics, likely to divert resources and disrupt military support.

      The cyber conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Western world, is expanding. The Ukrainians have reported broader targeting of the West, and cybersecurity company Thales confirms that Russian cyberattacks are now targeting Poland, the Baltic, and Nordic countries. This is significant as these countries have been providing increasing support to Ukraine in various ways, including military supplies and cyber expertise. The motive behind this spread of cyberattacks could be to target those countries' military support and divert their resources. While there is debate about whether this is directly ordered by the Kremlin, the trend indicates a wider escalation of cyber conflict. Regarding the second question, there have not been any major successful attacks by Russian agents on Ukrainian cyber defenses since the middle of last year. Instead, the Russians have been focusing on low-level targets. Overall, the cyber war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the West, is becoming more complex and far-reaching.

    • Cyber attacks on small businesses in UkraineRussians shift tactics to disrupt small businesses in Ukraine, impacting economy and normal operations, requiring vigilance and robust cybersecurity measures

      The ongoing cyber war in Ukraine involves less glamorous, low-level attacks against small civil society and businesses, rather than the high-profile set piece attacks that were initially expected. These attacks, which include wiping files, disrupting communication, and locking out email accounts, are designed to degrade Ukraine's ability to operate as a functioning state and resist. While these attacks may not receive the same level of attention in Western news as larger, more high-profile attacks, they have a significant impact on the lifeblood of the Ukrainian economy - small and medium-sized businesses. The Russians are shifting their tactics from big, strategic targets to smaller, more disruptive ones, making it difficult for Ukraine to maintain normal operations. This pattern of activity is reminiscent of historical bombing campaigns in World War II, where both sides targeted infrastructure in built-up areas to degrade the enemy's will to resist. In the cyber world, these attacks are more difficult to detect and penetrate, making it essential for organizations to stay vigilant and have robust cybersecurity measures in place.

    • Russian Silent Attacks on Ukraine's Digital InfrastructureRussian intelligence services and criminal gangs infiltrate Ukraine's digital infrastructure for espionage and degradation, posing a significant threat to civilian and military targets.

      The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine extends beyond the physical battlefield into the digital realm. While there have been visible attacks such as ransomware assaults, the more dangerous and less publicized threats involve silent infiltrations for espionage purposes. These attacks, carried out by groups like InvisiML, allow the perpetrators to gather valuable information, learn communication patterns, and identify vulnerabilities. The Ukrainian report mentions the Russian intelligence service as being behind these operations. The fog of war complicates attribution, as it's unclear whether criminal gangs co-opted by the Russians are acting independently or following orders. The Russians are believed to be intensifying their efforts to degrade Ukraine's infrastructure and capabilities. These silent attacks pose a significant threat to both civilian and military targets, and their impact can be far-reaching and long-lasting.

    • Russian intelligence targets Ukrainian individuals and military networks with advanced hacking techniquesRussian intelligence uses webcams, microphones, geolocation, and encryption hacks to target Ukrainians and potentially military networks. Ukrainian and Western hackers also target Russian systems, but legality and prominence are debated. High-profile attacks on Russian broadcasters illustrate the impact of cyberattacks in the conflict.

      The Russian foreign intelligence service, InvisiML or SVR, is using advanced military hacking techniques to target Ukrainian individuals and potentially military networks. This includes hacking into webcams, microphones, and geolocating victims, as well as compromising encrypted communications. There have also been reports of Ukrainian and Western hackers targeting Russian systems, but the legality and prominence of such activities are debated. The recent high-profile attacks on Russian broadcasters, urging citizens to prepare for evacuation, demonstrate the potential impact of cyberattacks in the ongoing conflict.

    • Ukraine: Military Conflicts and Diplomatic ManeuversRussian control attempts in Ukraine face strong resistance, diplomacy continues, military activity near nuclear plant raises concerns, situation remains volatile

      The geopolitical situation in Ukraine remains complex and tense, with ongoing military conflicts and diplomatic maneuvers. Russian efforts to control key areas, such as Bakhmut, are met with strong resistance from Ukrainian forces, who view any Russian victory as a potential propaganda tool for Putin. The diplomatic front is equally intriguing, with Zelensky inviting Xi Jinping to Ukraine and emphasizing the importance of US support for Ukraine's military efforts. The IAEA's visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant adds another layer of complexity, as military activity around the plant continues to raise concerns. Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains volatile and requires close monitoring.

    • Tensions around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Increased Military Aid for UkraineGermany to significantly increase military aid for Ukraine, EU deals with Russia on energy and nuclear cooperation, and the EU grapples with circumvention of Russian sanctions through illicit trade routes.

      The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine remains tense and uncertain, with the risk of a nuclear catastrophe due to ongoing attacks. Germany is set to increase its military aid spending for Ukraine significantly, with €12,000,000,000 more due to be approved. Hungary, a close Russian ally in the EU, is holding energy talks with Russia about gas and oil shipments and nuclear cooperation, despite international sanctions. The EU is grappling with the issue of circumvention of Russian sanctions, with an increase in trade between Europe and countries like Kazakhstan, where goods are believed to be disappearing and being sent to Russia instead. The EU is working to crack down on this issue, potentially imposing sanctions on countries or individuals found to be helping Russia obtain dual use technologies through these illicit trade routes. However, some Western governments believe that sanctions have reached their limit and are exploring other options to pressure Russia.

    • Russia's Cyber Attacks and Human Rights Violations in UkraineRussian hackers target smaller businesses and make progress in military hacking, while thousands of Ukrainian children are illegally deported or transferred to Russia. The international community is pressuring Russia to account for these actions and return the children. The future of Ukraine remains uncertain, with ongoing attention and action required.

      The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia involves not only military actions but also cyber warfare and human rights violations. Russian hackers are targeting smaller businesses and making progress in military hacking, while thousands of Ukrainian children have been illegally deported or transferred to Russia. The international community, particularly Western governments, are looking for ways to pressure Russia to account for these actions and return the children. Another pressing question is what the West's plans are for Ukraine's future, as the war and the attention it receives continue to evolve. Despite the uncertainty, it is clear that the situation remains fluid and requires ongoing attention and action.

    • Western perspective on Ukraine conflict may shiftRecognition of Russian presence in Donbas before 2022 invasion could lead to negotiations and potential return to pre-invasion lines, but West's support for Ukraine and stance on conflict remains uncertain

      That the Western perspective on the Ukraine conflict may shift, as some acknowledge that a significant portion of the Donbas region was occupied by Russian forces or separatists prior to the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. This realization might lead to negotiations and potentially a return to the pre-February 24 lines. However, it remains uncertain whether the West will fully support Ukraine in this direction, as some may view it as a step back from their previous stance. Additionally, there is debate on what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and what the West's role in it should be. The West's commitment to Ukraine and its position on the conflict are still evolving and uncertain.

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    Bonus Episodes :


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    Articles Referenced: 


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    What Russia really wants from its summer offensive (Joe Barnes & Roland Oliphant in The Telegraph)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/16/russia-new-offensive-kharkiv-border-donbas-kyiv-ukraine/ 


    Rishi Sunak understands the danger the UK faces (David Cameron in The Telegraph)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/rishi-sunak-understands-the-dangers-the-uk-faces/

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    Articles Referenced:


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    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Scarborough Fair (29th June): 

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    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

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    https://www.chalkefestival.com/


    Scarborough Fair (29th June): 

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/


    Article Referenced:


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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/22/wests-errors-in-ukraine-been-catastrophic-i-wont-apologise/


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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/authors/world-war-three-too-late-history-violence/ 



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    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Ukraine: The Latest
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    Day 850.

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    Contributors:

    David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles on X

    Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

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    https://www.penguin.co.uk/authors/303637/oleksandr-mykhed


    Upcoming events:

    Chalke Valley History Festival: 

    https://www.chalkefestival.com/


    Scarborough Fair 29th 

    https://scarboroughfair.uk/performances/ukraine-the-latest-live/


    Article Referenced:


    Exclusive Olena Zelenska interview (The Telegraph)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/20/olena-zelenska-ukraine-hope-burnout-family/


    Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY2UD11kbmE



    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk



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    Day 580.

    Today, we discuss how the IOC has banned Russian athletes from the Asian Games, and look at the latest threats to undersea cables.

    Plus, we hear from Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia Deputy Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War, about the significance of 'milbloggers' during this conflict.

    Contributors:

    Dominic Nicholls (Host, Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.

    Gareth Corfield (Senior Tech Reporter). @GazTheJourno on Twitter.

    Kateryna Stepanenko (Russia Deputy Team Lead, ISW). @KatStepanenko on Twitter.


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