Who is poisoning girls in Iran?

Podcast Summary

• Ongoing health concerns for schoolgirls in Iran: Over 1200 cases of suspected poisoning reported, with perpetrators unidentified, and Iran's supreme leader calling for harsh punishment if deliberate. Russia sanctions update coming from Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo.

  There are ongoing concerns about the health and safety of schoolgirls in Iran, with over 1200 reported cases of suspected poisoning since November. The situation is serious, with victims reporting strange smells and symptoms. Iran's supreme leader has condemned the incidents, calling them unforgivable crimes that should be punished by death if deliberate. Authorities have made some arrests, but the perpetrators remain unidentified, with the usual suspects being the US and Israel. Elsewhere, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo will provide an update on Russia sanctions in an upcoming Pod Save the World episode. He will discuss efforts to deny Russia oil and gas revenue, as well as attempts to stop other countries from helping Russia evade sanctions. The interview promises clear and digestible insights into the current situation.

• Poison attacks on schoolgirls in Iran: Who's behind it?: The poison attacks on schoolgirls in Iran have brought back past memories of acid attacks on women, reignited debates about women's rights, and potentially led to more unrest and severe consequences, with various theories about religious groups, government complicity, or rogue factions being responsible.

  The poison attacks on schoolgirls in Iran have sparked intense speculation about the perpetrators and the motivations behind the attacks. Some believe it is a religious group's response to girls' education and participation in protests, while others suggest government complicity or rogue factions. Regardless of who is responsible, the attacks have brought back painful memories of past acid attacks on women and reignited debates about women's rights and the future of Iranian society and politics. The economic instability and increasing protests add to the complexity of the situation, potentially leading to more unrest and even more severe consequences. The international community, including the United States, has called for investigations, but the future remains uncertain and potentially volatile.

• US intelligence doubts foreign involvement in Havana Syndrome cases: Intelligence agencies believe unexplained health issues affecting US gov personnel were likely due to preexisting conditions or environmental causes, not a foreign attack, causing diplomatic damage.

  The US intelligence community has concluded it's "very unlikely" that Russia or any other foreign actor was responsible for the approximately 1,000 cases of unexplained health issues, known as Havana Syndrome, affecting US government personnel and their families. Despite the suffering and diplomatic damage caused, intelligence agencies believe these symptoms were more likely due to preexisting conditions or environmental causes, rather than a foreign attack. The Trump administration used these incidents as a pretext to expel diplomats, roll back diplomatic progress, and threaten Russia, causing significant diplomatic damage. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the cause of Havana Syndrome, it's clear that the consequences of this situation have been far-reaching and complex.

• Discrediting the Havana Syndrome justification for hardline Cuba policy: The Havana Syndrome, used to justify a hardline US policy towards Cuba, has been discredited due to new evidence suggesting it was likely caused by something other than a sonic attack. The number of acute cases was exaggerated, and transparency about the issue is lacking, raising concerns about US credibility.

  The Havana Syndrome issue, which was used as a justification for maintaining a hardline policy towards Cuba, has been discredited due to the revelation that the symptoms were likely caused by something other than a mysterious sonic attack. This not only calls into question the need for the continued rollback of Obama's policy towards Cuba but also raises concerns about the credibility of the United States when it comes to explaining unexplained incidents to the international community. The number of truly acute unexplained cases is far lower than initially reported, and there is evidence to suggest that the Trump administration may have exaggerated the issue for political reasons. The lack of transparency and clear explanation about what happened during the Trump administration leaves many wondering about the true nature of the Havana Syndrome and the motivations behind its publicization.

• DHS's Overt Human Intelligence Collection Program Raises Concerns: The DHS's Overt Human Intelligence Collection Program has faced criticism for its legality, utility, and potential civil liberties infringement, with some suggesting the department's functions be separated or dismantled.

  The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Overt Human Intelligence Collection Program, which allows DHS officers to interview individuals without their lawyers, has raised concerns regarding its legality, utility, and potential infringement on civil liberties. This program, which is part of the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis, has been criticized for its lack of focus on intelligence gathering and its overlap with law enforcement matters. The DHS, which was created after 9/11 and brings together 22 agencies and over 100,000 employees, has been criticized for its inefficiency, redundancy, and legal and ethical issues. Some suggest that the department should be dismantled and its functions separated, such as leaving law enforcement intelligence work to law enforcement agencies and making FEMA a standalone entity. Critics argue that the DHS has securitized various aspects of American life, leading to unnecessary procedures like airport security checks, and that its creation was a response to post-9/11 hysteria rather than a logical response to national security needs.

• DHS's Evolution from a Terrorism Agency to an Immigration Agency: Despite its large budget and workforce, the Department of Homeland Security has faced oversights and challenges in its evolution from a terrorism agency to an immigration agency, including issues with immigration court judges and allegations of election interference by foreign governments.

  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the United States, with over 240,000 employees and a $38 billion budget, has undergone significant shifts in focus and functions since its formation. Initially seen as a terrorism agency, it has since morphed into an immigration agency. The ad hoc creation of DHS resulted in oversights, such as leaving the agency responsible for supplying immigration court judges at the Department of Justice, while the one supplying prosecutors and cases was moved to DHS. More recently, allegations of election interference by the Chinese government in Canada's 2021 federal election campaign have come to light, with reports of disinformation campaigns and cash donations to political parties. The potential impact of these efforts on the election results is unclear, but China's relationship with Canada has been strained since 2018 due to the arrest of Huawei officials. This interference story may make the Liberal Party even more critical of China, making the situation between the two countries even more challenging.

• China and Russia Interfering in Global Politics: China and Russia are interfering in the politics of various countries, including Canada, and this trend is expected to continue. Governments must acknowledge and address this issue to protect their democracies and maintain international peace.

  China and Russia are increasingly interfering in the politics of various countries, including Canada, and this trend is expected to continue. The Chinese government, in particular, has criticized the US and expressed a belief in the need to defend against perceived threats, which could lead to more aggressive actions. This calls for transparency and vigilance to prevent the spread of mass suspicions and potential harm to communities. The ongoing Chinese Party Congress and Xi Jinping's recent statements indicate a growing sense of conflict between China and the US, and these tensions could result in further political meddling. It is crucial for governments to acknowledge and address this issue to protect their democracies and maintain international peace.

• US-China tensions and Canadian immigration crisis: The US-China relationship continues to pose a significant geopolitical challenge, while Canada faces an unprecedented surge in illegal immigration, leading to political tensions and calls for stricter border control.

  The US-China relationship remains a significant geopolitical challenge, with Xi Jinping's leadership and China's growing power continuing to be a focus of US containment efforts. Meanwhile, in Canada, political tensions are rising due to an unprecedented surge in illegal immigration, with nearly 40,000 migrants crossing the border from the US in 2022, leading to a surge in anti-immigrant sentiment and calls for stricter border control. The Biden administration is reportedly considering reinstating family detention as a response to the expected increase in migration after Title 42 expires. This issue is adding to the political pressure on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who plans to raise the issue during Biden's upcoming visit to Canada and seek a renegotiation of an early 2000s treaty to address the issue holistically. The immigration crisis in the US is leading to significant political changes in Canada, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to legal immigration and enforcement.

• Historical disputes between South Korea and Japan: Diplomatic intervention and dialogue needed to manage historical disputes and prevent them from derailing broader strategic partnerships

  The relationship between South Korea and Japan, particularly regarding historical grievances and compensation for forced labor, remains a complex and sensitive issue. Despite efforts to find resolution, tensions persist and have the potential to impact security cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea. The latest development, with South Korea's announcement to compensate victims independently, is a risky concession that could further strain the relationship, especially since victims' advocacy groups are demanding more. This issue highlights the need for diplomatic intervention and dialogue to manage these historical disputes and prevent them from derailing the broader strategic partnership between the involved nations.

• Japan-South Korea tensions and Bakhmut battle: Complex geopolitical issues: Japan-South Korea require dialogue and trust for cooperation, while Bakhmut battle continues with Russia, diplomacy is complicated, and deepfakes pose a disinformation threat.

  The ongoing issues between Japan and South Korea, rooted in history and reparations, require genuine dialogue and trust-building for cooperation to not be negatively impacted. The situation is complex, with Korea seeking more from Japan than what Japan is willing or able to provide. The hope is that this dialogue leads to the establishment of a more durable framework and the potential for genuine reconciliation. Meanwhile, the battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine continues to take a heavy toll on both sides, with up to 30,000 Russian troops reportedly killed or wounded in the last 6 months. The diplomatic front remains complicated, with not all countries aligning with the US and Europe's stance against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov faced skepticism and even laughter during a recent appearance in India, indicating that not everyone is buying Russia's spin. Additionally, there are concerns about the use of deepfakes for disinformation campaigns, with the US Special Forces Operations Command reportedly exploring this technology. The potential for deepfake action on behalf of China and the CIA adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. In Georgia, massive protests are underway, adding to the ongoing global instability. It's a reminder that despite the challenges, dialogue, trust, and understanding are crucial for navigating the complexities of international relations.

• Georgia's ruling party pushes through NGO law, opposition wants closer ties with Europe: Georgia's ruling party passes controversial NGO law, sparking opposition and calls for closer ties with Europe

  In Georgia, a country situated on the fault line between Russian and Western influence, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, is pushing through a controversial law reminiscent of Russian and Hungarian playbooks, designating NGOs as foreign agents. This move is met with opposition from the people who want closer ties with Europe. Meanwhile, in a less serious turn of events, a former Mexican beauty queen and her partner went on a wine-stealing spree, worth over $1.7 million, at a Michelin-starred hotel, leaving behind only a 19th century vintage worth £350,000. The question remains, did they drink the expensive wine or leave it behind? Lastly, the International Women's Summit in the UAE, sponsored by Forbes, raises questions about corporate cynicism, as the UAE does not have equal rights for women and men, with women requiring a guardian's permission to marry and inheriting half the amount their male relatives do.

• UAE's International Summits and Criticisms: Despite hosting numerous international summits, the UAE faces criticisms for using them for reputation enhancement without addressing pressing social issues, such as women's rights and climate change.

  The UAE, as a host of various international summits and conferences, raises questions about the authenticity and intentions behind such events. The discussion highlighted instances where the UAE has been criticized for using these events for reputation enhancement, while not making significant strides in addressing pressing social issues, such as women's rights and equality. The case of Sheikh Mohammed's daughter and the counter-ISIS campaign were cited as examples. The upcoming COP 28 climate summit in the UAE also raised concerns, given the role of the head of their state oil company as their climate envoy. While the UAE has passed some reforms in recent years, there is skepticism regarding their implementation. The discussion ended with a call for more inward-looking conversations if such a conference were to be held in the US. Overall, the conversation emphasized the importance of scrutinizing the intentions and impact of international summits and conferences.

• US Sanctions Hinder Russia's Military Inputs: The US has successfully restricted Russia's access to advanced semiconductors, hindering its military capabilities, but more efforts are needed to reduce Russian revenues, particularly from oil exports.

  The US administration's efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict extend beyond diplomacy, with a significant focus on economic sanctions. One successful aspect of these sanctions has been restricting Russia's access to crucial military inputs like advanced semiconductors. By preventing these sales, the US has hindered Russia's ability to build precision missiles and rebuild its military. However, more work is needed to reduce Russia's revenues, particularly from commodity exports like oil. The US is also working to prevent third-party transactions involving Russian purchases of semiconductors. As the conflict continues, the US aims to maintain and expand these economic pressures on Russia.

• Economic Measures to Weaken Russia's War Effort: G7 nations have implemented price caps on Russian oil and targeted Russian oligarchs' assets to limit Russia's economic resources and weaken its ability to continue the war in Ukraine.

  The international community, led by the G7 nations, has implemented various economic measures to limit Russia's oil revenue and weaken its economy as part of the response to the Ukraine conflict. The price cap on Russian oil, which restricts its use of Western supply chains, has been a significant tool in this regard. This has forced Russia to spend money on building its own alternatives, reducing the funds available for military spending and other priorities. Additionally, efforts to target the assets and finances of Russian oligarchs, who are closely tied to Putin and the Kremlin, have had some success in limiting their ability to support the regime. While this is not a simple issue and there are complexities involved, the overall goal is to reduce Russia's economic resources and thereby weaken its ability to continue the war in Ukraine.

• Russia's elites and allies evade sanctions and taxes: Russia's wealthy elites and allies attempt to bypass international sanctions and taxes, but countries imposing sanctions aim to freeze and use these funds to benefit Ukraine. China's role in supplying Russia with advanced technology and resources is a concern, but Chinese firms and individuals have been cautious to avoid sanctions and market loss.

  Russia's wealthy elites and potential allies, such as China, are actively trying to evade international sanctions and taxes by moving money around the world. The coalition of countries imposing sanctions is working to identify and freeze these funds, with the ultimate goal of using them to benefit the people of Ukraine. The potential role of China in supplying Russia with advanced technology and resources is a concern, but so far, Chinese firms and individuals have been cautious due to the risk of being sanctioned and losing access to larger markets. The collective economies of the countries imposing sanctions represent about half of the global economy, making the potential consequences of violating these sanctions significant. The message to entities considering providing material support to Russia, whether it be China or other countries, is clear: they risk losing access to a much larger market. The G7 and the European Union are committed to holding individuals, companies, and countries accountable for providing material support to Russia.

• Economic pressure on China and India to reconsider Russian energy purchases: The West's price cap on Russian oil is causing economic struggles for countries like India, leading them to negotiate lower prices. Secretary Yellen is using diplomacy and economic incentives to encourage these countries to reduce their energy dependence on Russia and condemn its invasion of Ukraine.

  Despite China and India not being fully aligned with the West in condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the economic impact of the war is causing these countries to reconsider their energy purchases from Russia. The price cap on Russian oil imposed by the West is putting Russia in a bind, as countries like India are looking to negotiate lower prices due to their own economic struggles. Secretary Yellen's diplomatic efforts and economic incentives aim to make it clear to these countries that their economic interests align with a swift end to the war in Ukraine. However, the results have been mixed, with some countries continuing to buy Russian energy while distancing themselves from the conflict. Ultimately, the goal is to demonstrate to these countries that they can reduce their energy costs by not supporting Russia's invasion and encouraging Russia to do the same.

• Preventing Russian illicit financial flows in Africa and beyond: The U.S. is urging countries and businesses to prevent Russian money laundering and illicit financial activities, threatening consequences for non-compliance.

  The U.S. is actively engaging with countries in Africa and beyond to prevent illicit financial flows from Russia. The disinformation landscape is complex, and it's essential for the U.S. to maintain regular diplomatic relations. The message to these countries is to take steps to prevent Russian money laundering and illicit financial activities within their jurisdictions. The U.S. is not only threatening actions against these governments but also warning businesses that they may face consequences if they allow Russian illicit finance to flow through their systems. The Emirates, as a major financial hub, has been specifically called out for allowing a Russian financial institution to set up shop there, which goes against their reputation for serious anti-money laundering efforts. The U.S. is working with the UK and EU to convey this message to these countries and businesses, emphasizing the importance of protecting their systems against Russian illicit finance to maintain their good reputation and avoid potential consequences from U.S., EU, and UK financial institutions.

• Unsung heroes in national security use export controls to limit Russia's resources: Unsung heroes in national security use export controls to limit Russia's access to resources, making sanctions clear, multinational, and reversible to change specific behaviors.

  Unsung heroes in the national security apparatus, such as career staff at OFAC and other departments in the US, UK, and EU, have played crucial roles in constraining Russia through export controls, in addition to sanctions. These individuals work tirelessly and include dedicated professionals like Andrea Gacki. The use of export controls as a tool to limit Russia's access to resources has become increasingly important in recent years. However, there is a risk of overusing economic sanctions, which may lead to fatigue and reluctance from countries and firms to comply. To make sanctions more effective and sustainable, it is essential to be clear about foreign policy objectives, make them multinational, and ensure they are reversible. The goal is to change specific behaviors, not to harm innocent people or cause unnecessary economic hardship.

• Clear and communicated criteria for sanctions: Effective use of sanctions requires clear and communicated criteria for implementation and removal to prevent misuse and unintended consequences in international relations.

  Effective use of sanctions requires clear and communicated criteria for implementation and removal. The decision to impose or maintain sanctions is not made in isolation at the Treasury Department, but is a foreign policy decision made by successive administrations. Sanctions often remain in place long after their initial purpose, causing unintended consequences in countries like Cuba, Myanmar, and Iran. It's crucial for the foreign policy establishment to establish and communicate a criteria for sanctions to prevent their misuse and unintended consequences. This will ensure that sanctions are used as a tool for diplomacy, rather than a perpetual obstacle to international relations.