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    Russia’s Newest Target: The Global Food Supply

    enJuly 25, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Russia-Ukraine Conflict Threatens Global Food SupplyThe ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a naval blockade and trapped grain, poses a significant risk to the global food supply and causes food prices to soar, impacting millions of people.

      The collapse of a deal between Russia and Ukraine last week has put the global food supply at risk, as these two countries provide a significant portion of the world's wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, and other essential agricultural products. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent naval blockade of Ukrainian ports have resulted in approximately 25 million tons of grain being trapped in the country, causing food prices to soar and millions of people around the world to be affected. Turkey, which controls the only way in and out of the Black Sea where these ships would need to pass, has been trying to act as a mediator to find a solution to this complex global issue. The agreement for food shipments to restart was reached in April 2022, but its implementation has been complicated due to the ongoing conflict and international sanctions. This situation highlights the importance of peaceful resolutions to conflicts and the interconnectedness of the global food supply system.

    • UN, Turkey broker deal to resume Ukrainian grain exportsThe UN-Turkey brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative aims to resume Ukrainian grain exports by securing better terms for Russian fertilizer and ensuring safe passage for cargo ships, impacting Odessa's economic, military, and symbolic significance in the global grain market and food supply.

      The Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed in Istanbul, is a UN and Turkish-brokered deal aimed at resuming grain exports from Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. The agreement involves the UN helping Russia secure better terms to export its fertilizer in exchange for safe passage for cargo ships through the Black Sea, allowing them to transport Ukrainian grain to global markets. Despite the parties not signing the deal together, Ukrainian and Russian officials will work together at an inspection center in Istanbul to ensure the ships' safety and prevent smuggling. The deal's success is crucial, particularly in Odessa, Ukraine's largest port city, which holds significant economic, military, and symbolic importance. The sight of cranes, train lines, warehouses, and fuel depots in Odessa underscores the port's importance in the global grain market and the potential impact of this deal on the global food supply.

    • First Grain Ship Sails from Odessa Port Amid Global Food CrisisUkraine's Odessa port played a crucial role in averting a global food crisis by exporting thousands of tons of grain, but the deal expired and Russia's refusal to renew it caused economic hardship for Ukraine and the global food market.

      Odessa, a vibrant and economically significant city in Ukraine, was relatively spared from destruction during the early stages of the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the naval blockade led to the shutdown of its port, causing significant economic hardship. The world watched with bated breath as the first ship loaded with grain set sail from Odessa's port on August 1, 2022, marking a potential turning point in the global food crisis. Over the next several months, thousands of tons of grain were transported from the Black Sea to the global market, averting a meltdown. However, the deal expired on July 17, 2023, and Russia, under pressure from President Putin, refused to renew it unless certain sanctions were lifted. The loss of this deal was a significant blow to Ukraine's economy and the global food market.

    • Russia's Grain Export Deal with Ukraine: Escalation of Violence in OdessaRussia's dissatisfaction with eased sanctions and economic leverage over Ukrainian agricultural exports led to an escalation of violence in Odessa, causing devastation and raising global concerns.

      The breakdown of the grain export deal between Russia and Ukraine last week has led to an escalation of violence in Odessa, with the city experiencing intense bombardment. Russia's stated reason for this action is dissatisfaction with the easing of sanctions, but it's also seen as economic blackmail as Russia holds the essential Ukrainian export of agricultural goods hostage. Russia's weakened state and the impact on the global food market are also factors. The international community views Russia's actions as blackmail, and there's currently no indication of a negotiated settlement. In less than a week, we've seen a dramatic shift from relative peace to all-out bombardment, causing devastation and raising global concerns.

    • Tensions in the Black Sea Threaten Ukrainian Grain ExportsThe Black Sea situation endangers Ukrainian grain exports, potentially causing a global food crisis. Russia and Ukraine view ships as hostile, creating a dangerous environment. A proposed Turkish corridor faces challenges, and private companies are reluctant to navigate the area.

      The situation in the Black Sea regarding Ukraine's grain exports is increasingly tense and volatile. Both Russia and Ukraine have declared any ships trying to travel to or from their ports as potentially hostile, creating a dangerous environment for civilian vessels. The Ukrainians have proposed a risky plan for ships to sail through a corridor guarded by Turkey, but this plan faces numerous challenges, including the possibility of Russian mines and the reluctance of private shipping companies and insurers to navigate the area. The longer the situation persists, the greater the risk of a global food crisis due to the blocked Ukrainian grain exports. Russia's recent drone attack on a Danube River port further underscores the urgency of the situation. Turkey's involvement is crucial for any viable solution, but it would be a significant shift for Ankara to side explicitly with Ukraine. The future remains uncertain, but the potential consequences of inaction are significant.

    • Israeli Government Limits Supreme Court Power Amid ControversyThe Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, passed a contentious law limiting the supreme court's power, sparking protests, business closures, and potential military resignations.

      The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, pushed through a controversial plan to limit the power of the supreme court, despite opposition from tens of thousands of Israelis, the Biden administration, and various organizations. This plan, which was adopted in a dramatic parliamentary vote, would shield Netanyahu's government from traditional judicial oversight and prevent the court from overturning many decisions made by the government. The controversy has sparked significant protests, with major businesses shutting down, Israel's largest labor union threatening a national strike, and over 10,000 military reservists considering resigning. Netanyahu acknowledged the protesters in a televised speech and offered to postpone further changes to the court system. This battle over the judiciary is one of the biggest showdowns in modern Israeli history, pitting secular Israelis against religious nationalists. The situation remains volatile.

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    Referenced in the show:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/russia-troop-deaths.html

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    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/russia-ukraine-invasion-francis-fukuyama-b2035413.html

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1504601558184517637

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    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/there-are-more-than-11-million-open-jobs-in-america-right-now.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates

    https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1503989745939980292

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-06-16/the-latest-kremlin-official-says-summit-will-not-be-easy

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