Podcast Summary
Global Conflicts: Connected or Random?: Despite seemingly random global conflicts, there could be causal connections. For instance, US bombing of Houthis in Yemen allowed Azerbaijan to launch a new offensive against Armenia due to distraction caused by the war in Ukraine.
We are currently living through an extraordinary period of global violence and conflict, with a higher number of deaths from global conflicts than any generation before it. This is due to multiple ongoing wars and conflicts between countries and non-state groups, such as terrorists and cartels. While it might seem random, there could be a causal chain connecting these conflicts, as seen in the case of the US and Western coalition bombing the Houthis in Yemen, which allowed Azerbaijan to launch a new offensive against Armenia. These events were influenced by the distraction caused by the war in Ukraine, where Russia shifted its military attention, drawing attention away from other conflicts. Overall, it's crucial to recognize the significance of this moment in history and the far-reaching consequences of these conflicts. Additionally, the podcast episode features sponsor messages from Canva and Indeed. Canva offers a simple solution for creating stunning presentations using AI-generated templates and media library, while Indeed simplifies the hiring process by connecting employers with qualified candidates through scheduling, screening, and messaging. To learn more about the current state of global conflicts and their potential connections, tune in to the latest episode of Stick the Landing on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Experiencing a 'world at war': The interconnectedness of global conflicts highlights the need to understand political motivations and goals beyond tactical battles
The ongoing conflicts in various parts of the world, including Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Israel, and Yemen, are more interconnected than they seem. Political scientist Paul Post argues that we are experiencing a "world at war" with multiple conflicts reaching an 80-year high. The connection between the wars in Ukraine and Israel lies in their heavy reliance on US material assistance and their perception of being in existential fights following military incursions. However, both countries could be facing strategic defeat, meaning the political aims of the wars may not be achievable despite tactical victories or defeats. This perspective emphasizes the importance of understanding the political motivations and goals behind wars, rather than just focusing on tactical battles.
The fear of strategic defeat can prolong conflicts: Despite tactical victories, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Ethiopia highlight the need for a more comprehensive approach to conflict resolution beyond military action due to the potential for longer, more destructive conflicts.
While military victories and gains in territory are important, the fear of strategic defeat can lead to longer and more destructive conflicts. This was discussed in relation to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, where despite tactical victories, the overall objectives of achieving peace and stability have not been met. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's comments on Israel's potential strategic defeat highlight the concern that military action alone may not be enough to address the underlying issues fueling these conflicts. Furthermore, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program data shows that global conflict deaths, state-based violence, and the total number of conflicts are at their highest levels since the end of World War II. These trends underscore the need for a more comprehensive approach to conflict resolution that goes beyond military action. One lesser-known conflict that deserves more attention is the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, which has resulted in widespread violence, displacement, and humanitarian crisis. Addressing the root causes of this conflict, such as political instability and ethnic tensions, will be crucial to achieving a lasting peace.
The Congo Problem: Africa's Long-Lasting Conflict: The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has caused the deaths of millions and has the potential to destabilize Africa, is a significant issue that requires attention to prevent further devastation. Some scholars argue that the decline of Pax Americana has contributed to the high level of violence in the region.
The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has been a frozen conflict and a hot conflict multiple times over the past few decades, is a significant issue that continues to cause devastation and has the potential to destabilize Africa. Referred to as "Africa's World War" in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the conflict reached a point where up to 5 million people were killed. More recently, it has flared up again and has become a proxy war between the Democratic Republic of Congo's government and neighboring Rwanda. This conflict, which has gone on for decades, is reminiscent of the challenges posed by other long-lasting conflicts around the world. It is crucial to address this issue, known as the "Congo problem," to prevent further devastation and instability in Africa. Additionally, some military scholars argue that the high level of violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo can be attributed to the decline of Pax Americana, the period of relative peace following the end of the Cold War when the US was the world's dominant power and could act as a global peacekeeper.
The decline of Pax Americana and shift to multipolar world causing global crises: The decline of US dominance and focus on great power competition with China and Russia is leading to a decrease in global stability and an increase in crises
The decline of Pax Americana and the shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar one has contributed to the increase in global crises. This shift is due to both the US having less ability to address every conflict due to its focus on great power competition with China and Russia, and the distraction caused by this competition. The decline of Pax Americana can be seen as a combination of policy choices and inevitability. While some argue that the US has made choices that led to this decline, others believe it was an inevitability due to the uneven growth of economies and the eventual return of multipolarity. Regardless of the cause, the current great power competition is leading to a decrease in global stability and an increase in crises.
Russia's historical role in global conflicts: Russia's influence on global conflicts dates back centuries, from Central Asia's 'great game' to the Cold War and beyond, with recent actions like Ukraine's invasion causing ongoing instability and diverting resources from other crises
The geopolitical instability we're experiencing today could be linked to Russia's role in global affairs. This theory, as presented, suggests that Russia has been a major player in international conflicts for centuries, from the 19th century's "great game" in Central Asia to the Cold War and beyond. More recently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and other actions have absorbed global attention and resources, leaving other crises unaddressed and potentially escalating. This theory doesn't claim to explain everything but highlights the significant impact Russia has had on international security throughout history.
Russia, China, and Iran form a 'dark triad' in Eastern Europe: Russia's conflict with Ukraine leads it to rely on China and Iran for military support, creating a complex geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, emphasizing the importance of understanding interconnectedness and motivations of these countries.
The complex geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, specifically the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, is interconnected with the relationships and actions of Russia, China, and Iran. Russia's behavior towards Ukraine has led to increased reliance on China and Iran for military support, creating a "dark triad" of sorts. China, as Russia's largest supplier of equipment for its war machine, plays a crucial role in this dynamic. Iran, providing Russia with drones, is another significant player. These countries, historically seen as outside the western-led order, have been seeking alternatives to it due to their dissatisfaction with the US-dominated system. The sanctions against Russia have pushed it towards these countries, and the fear of similar sanctions has led China to deepen its relationship with Russia. This situation emphasizes the importance of understanding the interconnectedness of these countries and their motivations in the international system.
Technology fuels non-state actor chaos: Technology enables non-state actors to create chaos with fewer resources, but the reasons behind their actions and government ineffectiveness are complex
The rise of non-state actor chaos in the world could be significantly linked to the widespread use of technology. The ease of access to technology has made it simpler for insurgent groups to coordinate, recruit, and amass resources, enabling them to create chaos with relatively fewer resources. This is an area of interest for scholars of international relations and politics, who study how technology changes the nature of conflict. However, it's essential to note that technology alone doesn't explain the entire picture. The reasons why these groups want to create chaos and why governments are unable to effectively address the issue remain unanswered. Additionally, governments also have access to technology, but often lack the resources or external assistance to effectively combat these non-state actors. Factors such as great power conflicts and the US being distracted could also be contributing to the inability of governments to address these conflicts effectively.
Technology and weak governments fuel violent non-state groups: Technology simplifies group formation for violent non-states, while weak governments' reliance on external support undermines their legitimacy, creating an environment for these groups to thrive
The weakness of institutions and governments in certain regions plays a significant role in the formation and operations of violent non-state groups. The ease of communication and organization brought about by technology can exacerbate this issue, as it makes it simpler for these groups to challenge the authority of weak states. The international system's efforts to prevent conflicts from fully playing out and establish peace have led to governments that are more dependent on external support, resulting in populations that may not fully recognize their legitimacy. This creates an environment where violent non-state groups are more likely to form and challenge the state's control. Information technology, such as smartphones, does not cause conflict but empowers group formation, making it easier for these groups to carry out their activities. This phenomenon is similar to how geographical factors, like mountainous terrain, have been shown to contribute to internal conflicts by enabling the hiding and organization of rebel groups.
The role of randomness in global conflicts: Climate change, technology, and weak states contribute to global instability, but randomness also plays a role in unpredictable collisions of variables.
The complex global chaos we observe today can be linked to various interconnected factors. While theories like the role of Russia and the dark triad or quad of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, the interplay between strong technology and weak states, and climate change all contribute to the instability, it's essential to remember that randomness also plays a role. The world is an intricate web of variables colliding in unpredictable ways. Climate change, for instance, can lead to food insecurity and famine, exacerbating conflicts over resources and borders. Countries like Yemen, South Sudan, and Ethiopia are prime examples of this link. However, it's important to acknowledge that not every conflict can be fully explained by a small number of variables. The theory of randomness serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of global events and the limitations of our ability to fully understand and explain every military conflict in a world of billions of people.
The sudden escalation of multiple conflicts in 2023 cannot be fully explained by randomness or unfortunate events: Structural factors such as unit polarity, climate change, technology, and state and institutional weakness contributed to the cascade of conflicts in 2023, highlighting the complexity of global conflicts and the need for a nuanced understanding of their causes.
While individual conflicts around the world may be explainable, the cascade of conflicts that occurred in 2023 cannot be fully attributed to randomness or a series of unfortunate events. The speaker acknowledges that conflicts have been ongoing in various regions and some of them were previously frozen, but the sudden escalation of multiple conflicts at the same time suggests deeper structural factors. These factors include unit polarity, climate change, technology, and state and institutional weakness. While it's important to consider the role of randomness in world events, it's also crucial to look for systematic explanations and underlying causes. The speaker emphasizes that this is not an exhaustive list, and there may be other factors at play as well. Overall, the conversation underscores the complexity of global conflicts and the need for a nuanced understanding of their causes.
Understanding the Root Causes of Global Conflicts: Geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, and technological advancements contribute to ongoing and future conflicts. Listeners can gain insights into these complex issues through the Plain English podcast.
The world in 2023 and beyond is likely to continue experiencing various conflicts due to complex interplay of factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, and technological advancements. Paul Post discussed these topics in depth on Plain English podcast, providing a framework for listeners to understand the root causes of ongoing and future conflicts. Although it's impossible to cover every aspect, the conversation offered valuable insights into the interconnected nature of global issues. Listeners are encouraged to give feedback and suggestions for future episodes, and to check out the new episode brought to you by 20th Century Studios' "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes," in theaters May 10th.
