Economics & Country Risk | An S&P Global Market Intelligence Podcast

National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade and investment. Countries will cooperate where objectives align, and areas of competition will likely increase. How faster-growing economies exercise their rising economic and geopolitical influence will be key.

An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcome of dozens of scheduled elections. In this episode, we look at five of these elections outside the US: India, South Africa, the European Union, the UK, and Mexico. We selected these polls because they touch on the economic fragility we see in the world, and, outside the US, are most likely to impact business. 

Featured experts:

•    Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk
•    Laurence Allan, Head of European Insights and Analysis
•    Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip, Senior Analyst for Latin America
•    Lange Malimela, Head of Country Risk, sub-Saharan Africa

In our first episode of 2024, we talked about our top 10 predictions for the global economy in the coming year. In this episode, we unveil our U.S. regional economic predictions for 2024, a year of uncertainty as Americans prepare for elections in November. 

You’ll hear about our expectations for the unemployment rate, job growth, consumer price index inflation, real wage increases, domestic migration and housing affordability. We’ll also discuss where we expect to see the biggest changes and how US economy 2024 trends could influence voters at the ballot box. Which indicators will our experts be watching as they track these trends in the runup to the election?

Featured experts:

Karl Kuykendall, Associate Director, US Regional Economic Service, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kuykendall-karl.html

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: 
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity.

How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy?

Featured expert:

Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, JOC, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/szakonyi-mark.html

Join us at #TPM24, March 3 - 6, where these issues will be discussed in depth. Learn more: https://ow.ly/ukhj50QB67B

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: 
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In this episode, our experts provide regional insights into construction markets around the globe. Learn more about what's impacting construction spending in North and South America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa. 

This deeper dive into regional themes for 2024 follows our previous episode on the global outlook for contruction spending and illustrates the economic fault lines we see in this disjointed world. 

Featured experts:

Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html

Amandeep Bahra, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/bahra-amandeep.html

Neo Sibiya, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Shing Tyan Lee, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-shing-tyan.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, we share insights from our webinar on the global construction outlook for 2024. We discuss changes in our macroeconomic forecast that inform our outlook for construction spending and provide an overview of regional construction markets. 

Featured expert:

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will cut across the themes of economic fault lines and resource security with a discussion of labor market trends we're tracking in 2024. Learn more about what trends will persist in 2024, and which will change direction. 

Featured experts:

Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence 
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/crowley-emily.html

Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malin-sophie.html

Sam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Download our report on 2024 themes:
https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of supply chain resilience.

Supply chain resilience is vital and costly amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy implementation. Companies will weigh strategies such as inventory expansion, multi sourcing, and reshoring.

Will companies be willing and able to pay for necessary investments in these strategies as corporate cash flows come under pressure? 

Featured expert: 

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Download our report on 2024 themes:
https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering.

National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have major implications for policy direction and priorities.

Featured expert:

Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html

Download our report on 2024 themes:
https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024.

Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year. 

Featured expert:
Ken Wattret, Global economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html

Read our full 2024 themes report: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/1123/2024-disjointed-world.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

Read more about our top 10 economic predictions: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

The global environment has still not settled onto a clear pathway toward a new stability. As we enter 2024 in this disjointed world, we confront risks posed by potential volatility across the economic and political spheres. We also see potential opportunities arising from the new reality of greatly segmented global relationships. 

In this episode, we discuss five overlapping themes as key for 2024: economic fault lines, geopolitical reordering, supply chain resilience, logistics rewired, and resource security. All influence one another, and none will develop in isolation. 

Featured experts:

Natznet Tesfay, head of Insights & Analysis, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/tesfay-natznet.html

Ken Wattret, head of economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html

Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html

Eric Johnson, senior technology editor, Journal of Commerce, S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/johnson-eric.html

Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Financial conditions in the US have tightened significantly of late, with a rapid jump in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, a material rise in the dollar, slowing in bank lending and continued weakness in equities. This argues for a slowing in growth of demand and GDP in coming quarters.

In this episode of the Economics & Country Risk podcast, a member of our US economics team discusses the sharp fluctuations in interest rates over the last month or two.

What’s behind the backup in long-term yields, and what does it imply for Fed policy?

Featured expert:

Michael Konidaris, associate director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/konidaris-michael.html

Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essential resource. The El Niño climate pattern is forecast to significantly impact the world in 2024. Water-related stress, however, will be an issue for many years to come in many parts of the world.

How will governments and businesses respond to water stress? And which industries are most likely to be affected? 

Access the 2024 Big Picture report here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/the-big-picture-industry-outlook

Featured S&P Global Market Intelligence experts:

Veronica Retamales Burford, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk

Will Farmer, Senior Research Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: 
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Featured experts:

Inflation was the economic bogeyman of 2022. Some Central European central banks believe they’ve banished the bogeyman and are cutting or preparing to cut interest rates.

The story in neighboring Russia and Turkey is different, with central banks there making defensive moves to shore up the countries’ currencies.

What is driving inflation trends in these economies? And where are rates there heading?

Featured experts: 

We share our outlook for commercial and residential construction in Europe. We expect nonresidential structure spending to decline across the region. The speed and intensity of the correction in the eurozone housing market will vary by country. 

What is driving our outlook in these markets? What headwinds are these markets facing, and when are they likely to ease? 

Featured experts:

Amandeep Bahra, senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Anja Heimann, senior Europe economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/heimann-anja.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts:
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, we share an excerpt from our recent webinar exploring our latest global construction outlook. Our expert discusses the global economic drivers of construction markets, highlight changes in our forecast, and pinpoint areas of strength and weakness. 

Featured expert:

Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/