The China-Global South Podcast

The escalating tensions between China, the Philippines, and the United States in the South China Sea highlight how Southeast Asia is now the most dangerous frontline in the burgeoning Great Power competition between Beijing and Washington.

But as this week's ASEAN summit in Australia highlights, there is no consensus in the region over how the Southeast Asian bloc's 11 member states are responding to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

This week, Eric spoke with Prashanth Parameswaran, a highly regarded analyst on Southeast Asian affairs and founder of the widely-read ASEAN Wonk newsletter, for some perspective on how different countries across the region are positioning themselves in this new era.

Show Notes:

• Subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk newsletter on Substack: https://www.aseanwonk.com
• Subscribe to the Sinica Podcast newsletter on Substack: https://sinica.substack.com

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A lot of EV consumers bought new battery-powered cars in the hope it would be better for the environment than a vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine that runs on fossil fuels. By some measures, that's no doubt true.

But many of these early adopters are also unaware their supposedly "green" cars aren't quite as carbon neutral as promised and that there are serious labor and human rights problems related to the metals used to manufacture the batteries that power those EVs.

Krista Shennum, a climate and human rights researcher at Climate Rights International, joins Cobus & Antonia to discuss the situation in Indonesia where Chinese mining companies dominate the all-important nickel sector that's rife with labor and environmental abuses.

SHOW NOTES:

• Climate Rights International: Nickel Unearthed -- The Human and Climate Costs of Indonesia's Nickel Industry: https://cri.org/reports/nickel-unearthed/

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Editor's Note: we're sharing this bonus episode of the China in Africa Podcast given that the topic is so relevant for our audience interested in China-Global South issues.

Academics and think tank analysts, predominantly in the U.S. and Europe, spend a lot of time debating whether it's appropriate to use the nomenclature "Global South" to describe developing countries in Africa, Asia, and the Americas, among other regions.

In those regions, it's actually less of an issue where framings like "South-South" are commonplace. The use of the word "South" doesn't seem to be as sensitive an issue as it is for those observers in the "Global North."

This week, Jorge Heine, a research professor at Boston University and former Chilean ambassador to South Africa, India and China, joins Eric & Cobus to give a passionate defense of the "Global South" and why he feels it's more important than ever now to embrace the concept.

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They're still counting the votes in Indonesia after last week's election but it's all but certain that Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto will become the country's next president. While some of the world's major powers, like the U.S. and India, are holding back their official congratulations, the Chinese weren't so reserved.

Ambassador Lu Kang went to Prabowo's private residence on Sunday and was photographed playing with the likely president's cat, Bobby -- a clear signal Beijing is keen to build a close relationship with the new administration in Jakarta.

CGSP's Southeast Asia Editor Antonia Timmerman joins Eric to discuss the geopolitics now swirling over the archipelago and what's ahead for China-Indonesia ties in the Prabowo era.

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For much of the past year, there's been a lot of talk about China's new leaner, more focused Belt and Road Initiative that goes by the mantra "Smart and Beautiful." The problem is very few people actually know what it looks like in practice.

But that's starting to change, particularly in regions like Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) where two seemingly contradictory investment trends are taking place: overall Chinese FDI in the region is down but in key areas, so-called "new infrastructure," Chinese investments in LAC countries have been going up.

Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington co-authored a new report on China's evolving investment priorities in the Americas and joins Eric to discuss why Chinese FDI today looks very different than it even just a few years ago.

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There was a lot of speculation in the U.S. last year that an upgrade of diplomatic ties with Vietnam would prompt Hanoi to be more aligned with Washington in its rivalry with China. While Vietnam did embark on a flurry of diplomatic upgrades with China's rivals in Japan, South Korea and the United States, among others, China nonetheless remains the Southeast Asian country's primary foreign policy priority.

And that's never going to change regardless of what the U.S. and others offer Hanoi, according to Khang Vu, a doctoral candidate in Vietnamese foreign policy at Boston College.

Khang joins Eric to explain why a combination of geography and history require the Vietnamese to always put China at the center of their international strategy.

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Together, the United States and China import $40 billion worth of timber products each year, quite a bit of which is harvested illegally from West Africa's rapidly shrinking forests. But cracking down on this illicit trade is extremely difficult given that many of the region's governments are actively complicit.

The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), an NGO based in the U.S. and UK, recently traced how Chinese merchants trafficked rosewood timber from the forests Equatorial Guinea back to China and eventually all the way to store shelves at Home Depot in the United States.

Last year, EIA published their findings in a damning investigative report. Ma Haibing, an Asia policy specialist at EIA, was part of the team that worked on that report. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss the key findings and what he recommends can be done to crack down on this destructive trade.

SHOW NOTES:

• EIA: The Dictator’s Door -- From Crimes in Equatorial Guinea's Forests to Home Depot's Customers: https://bit.ly/3O4McDg
• The Hill: To halt global deforestation, start with the Home Depot by Raphael Edou: https://bit.ly/3HrCmYc

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This year's COP28 gathering is wrapping up in Dubai and it turned out to be the most controversial climate conference in years where China was at the center of many of the most contentious discussions on how to mitigate the impact of global warming.

China's positions at the conference were difficult to decipher. Chinese negotiators positioned themselves as a still developing country that's suffering the consequences of climate change while at the same time aligning many of their critical votes at COP28 with the fossil fuel-producing countries.

Anika Patel, a China analyst at the online news site Carbon Brief, covered the Chinese delegation at COP28 in Dubai and joins Eric & Cobus to share of her insights into China's approach to climate politics at the conference.

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There's mounting concern in the U.S. and Europe that their global reputations, particularly in developing countries, will be among the latest casualties of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

In the Global South, anger is rising against the West over what is perceived to be a double standard by the West's unconditional support of Israel even as it bombs civilian neighborhoods in Gaza while at the same time lecturing other countries, namely Russia, for violating the rules of war when it does the same.

CGSP Southeast Asia Editor Antonia Timmerman joins Eric & Cobus from Jakarta to discuss how all of this plays into China's larger campaign to challenge the Western-led rules-based international order.

SHOW NOTES:

Read Antonia's latest column on Explaining Indonesia’s Different Responses To Palestine, Xinjiang, and Myanmar’s Rohingya: https://tinyurl.com/3da3jea6

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Prior to the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas in southern Israel, China had positioned itself as a new power broker in the Middle East. Chinese officials were brimming with confidence after they finalized a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year, hinting they could do the same in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But in the wake of a full-scale war that's now underway, those same Chinese officials are much more circumspect.

In this week's episode, CGSP Middle East Editor Jony Essa and Eric speak with three of the world's leading China-Mideast scholars to discuss China's response to the war between Israel and Hamas.

First, Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for International Diplomacy at the Interdisciplinary Center in Israel, and Jonathan Fulton, associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, discuss how the war has impacted China's foreign policy towards Israel and Persian Gulf countries.

Then, Bill Figueroa, one of the world's foremost experts on China-Iran relations at the University of Groningen, joins the conversation to talk about whether Beijing can leverage its influence with Iran to sway Hamas.

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Amid a slowing economy at home, more Chinese companies are now looking to invest abroad in search of higher returns. While there's been a lot of hope in recent years that some of that money would find its way to Africa and other less-developed regions, that's not happening.

Instead, Chinese companies are investing in countries closer to home in Asia, according to Chim Lee, a China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Chim joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to discuss the latest trends in Chinese overseas FDI and why Chinese companies are focusing more attention on "de-risking" their investments.

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Two years ago, China introduced a series of new so-called "green guidelines" that it hoped would promote more sustainable development abroad. But in Africa, according to a new research report, it appears those higher environmental, social, and governance (ESG) have been difficult to meet.

Researchers from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, the Fudan University Green Finance and Development Center, the South African Institute of International Affairs, and LSE IDEAS teamed up to examine ESG standards at five Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

Two of the scholars on that team, Cecilia Han Springer and Christoph Nedopil, join Cobus (who also contributed to the research) to discuss their findings and explain why Chinese companies continue to struggle to meet minimum ESG standards in Africa.

SHOW NOTES:

Read the full report: Elevating ESG: Empirical Lessons on Environmental, Social and Governance Implementation of Chinese Projects in Africa: https://bit.ly/46ZHL4d

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Chilean President Gabriel Boric oversaw the signing of a $233 million lithium deal with Chinese mining giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the latest investment that solidifies China's dominance of the fiercely contested EV battery metal supply chain.

In just the past few months alone, Chinese firms have moved quickly to lock up similar mining and processing deals in Morocco, Nigeria, Bolivia, and Zimbabwe, among other countries.

Henry Sanderson, executive editor at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, joins Eric & Geraud to discuss these latest deals and what the implications are for G7 countries that are looking to build alternate non-Chinese supply chains for critical resources.

SHOW NOTES:

Amazon: Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green by Henry Sanderson: https://a.co/d/7kDJxds

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China's economy emerged from the pandemic much weaker than before. Unemployment is up, exports are down and a burgeoning property crisis is having a devastating impact on local government finances.

These changes in the economy are happening very fast, so quickly that's it difficult for experts to keep pace with what's happening, much less among those who don't closely follow Chinese economic trends -- particularly in developing countries.

Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is one of the world's foremost scholars on the Chinese economy. He joins Eric this week to discuss how the dramatic changes that are now taking place in China will impact countries throughout the Global South.

SHOW NOTES:

Amazon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace: https://amzn.to/46Iiqel

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There's growing anxiety in the United States over China's expanding presence in the Latin America-Caribbean (LAC) region. Last week, a Congressional subcommittee held another breathless hearing that warned of the dangers of "Communism on our shores."

That concern in Washington is based, in part, on surging Chinese trade with LAC countries, more investment, and a growing ideological alignment with Beijing's worldview among many of the region's largest countries.

LAC countries are also key destinations for Chinese-backed infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.

But contrary to the simplistic narratives in Washington about Chinese engagement in Latin America, Bruno Binetti, a China Foresight Associate at LSE Ideas and a non-resident fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, says the region's ties with Beijing are undergoing profound change. Bruno joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to explain how.

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The Chinese economy is in trouble. Exports, manufacturing output, and investment are all down. Unemployment, particularly among young people is up. Provincial debt is now at a record $8 trillion while a burgeoning property crisis has eliminated a once reliable source of revenue for local governments.

The financial difficulties that China is now experiencing have direct implications on dozens, if not hundreds of developing countries around the world that have come to rely on Chinese demand to bolster their own economies.

Lizzi Li, an economist and reporter at the Chinese language television network Wall Street TV, joins Eric & Cobus from New York to discuss what's behind the economic slowdown in China and why it's critical that policymakers and other stakeholders in the Global South learn quickly how to adapt to the new economic realities that are taking shape.

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There was a glimmer of hope last month that China and India would pull back from their increasingly contentious standoff when military commanders concluded talks along their disputed border on a somewhat optimistic note. The hope was that these talks would pave the way for leaders from both countries to meet while they were together at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did meet briefly in South Africa but it did nothing to stall the downward spiral in relations between the two Asian powers.

Ananth Krishnan, an associate editor at The Hindu newspaper in New Delhi and one of the foremost experts on Sino-Indian relations, joins Eric & Cobus to explain why ties have soured so badly and what to expect going forward.

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China's Belt and Road Initiative marked its 10th anniversary this month, prompting a lot of discussion about what's next for Beijing's controversial development agenda. While BRI spending in Africa and the Americas has plummeted in recent years that is not the case closer to home in Southeast Asia.

Cambodia, in particular, stands apart from other countries in terms of its growing dependence on Chinese economic engagement -- both from government-backed BRI projects and private investors who have transformed major cities like Sihanoukville (not always for the better).

Wang Yuan, an assistant professor at Duke Kunshan University, and Linda Calabrese, a research fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, published a paper last month that examined China's hugely important economic presence in Cambodia and join Eric & Cobus to discuss what lessons other developing countries can learn from Phnom Penh's experience.

SHOW NOTES:

• World Development: Chinese capital, regulatory strength and the BRI: A tale of ‘fractured development’ in Cambodia: https://bit.ly/3PlXqTU

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The failure of G20 countries last month to agree on a plan to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 highlights a key problem in the ongoing debate over how to respond to climate change: the institutions that are designed to help solve this problem are failing.

It's not clear what China's role was in that debate at the G20 but elsewhere Beijing's actions on combatting climate change are somewhat contradictory. While China is by far the world's leader in renewable energy and green transportation, it's also the world's largest polluter, thanks in part to its reliance on coal power.

This week, Byron Tsang, a London-based senior policy advisor at the independent climate change think tank E3G and Madhura Joshi, a senior research associate for E3G in Mumbai, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the current state of global climate diplomacy.

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• Byford Tsang: https://www.linkedin.com/in/byfordtsang
• Madhura Zoshi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/madhura-joshi-b1b9a622

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China's critics contend the Belt and Road Initiative is dead or dying due to a mix of gross mismanagement and hubris. The data, however, reveals a very different story. While lending has definitely decreased considerably from its peak in 2016, the BRI is very much alive -- it just looks very different today than it did even a few years ago.

Instead of expensive large-scale infrastructure projects in Africa, the Americas, and Asia, Chinese lenders are now focusing more on smaller initiatives related to technology, renewable energy, and connectivity. In fact, Chinese creditors lent more money to finance green energy initiatives in the first half of the year than in any other 6-month period since the BRI launched a decade ago.

Christoph Nedopil, founding director of the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University has been closely tracking the evolution of the BRI and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what the latest data on BRI lending reveals about its future.

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