The China-Global South Podcast

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enAugust 15, 2023

Is China Setting the Agenda for Global South Debt Restructuring?

In June, Zambia reached what's been described as a landmark debt restructuring deal that for the first time brought together the country's bilateral creditors including China, traditional Paris Club lenders and bondholders.

While the deal is no doubt unprecedented, it also reveals that China was very effective in successful in getting the parties to agree to many of its demands.

Matt Mingey, a senior analyst at the consultancy Rhodium Group, is among the world's foremost experts on Chinese lending and debt issues. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss whether China is, in fact, setting the agenda for debt restructurings in the Global South.

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enAugust 01, 2023

Bases, Training and Weapon Sales: Latest Trends in China-Africa Military Ties

Three Chinese warships made ports of call in Ghana and Nigeria this month, prompting a new wave of speculation about Beijing's military ambitions in Africa. The PLA Navy visit followed reports that Chinese miners in the Central African Republic were rescued by a group of Russian mercenaries which also triggered questions as to whether the controversial Wagner Group is now working more closely with Chinese entities on the continent.

All of this is set against a backdrop of increasingly close military-to-military ties between the PLA and their counterparts in Africa.

Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C., is among the foremost experts on Chinese military engagement on the continent. He joins Eric & Cobus to discuss his latest research on the increasingly close ties between Chinese and African militaries for training and education which are also closely linked to increased Chinese weapons sales.

SHOW NOTES:

U.S. Institute of Peace: Chinese Professional Military Education for Africa: Key Influence and Strategy by Paul Nantulya: https://bit.ly/44hIts7
Africa Center for Strategic Studies: China’s Policing Models Make Inroads in Africa by Paul Nantulya

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enJuly 11, 2023

A Primer on the Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea

The South China Sea is one of the world's most strategically vital maritime zones where more than $5 trillion of trade passes through each year -- a whopping 60% of the globe's total maritime commerce. It's also the epicenter of an increasingly contentious geopolitical dispute among more than half a dozen countries over territorial boundaries and who ultimately controls this enormous body of water.

Chinese sovereignty claims over the whole of the South China Sea have provoked furious responses from its regional neighbors and sparked a dangerous duel with the U.S. and other major navies over continued freedom of navigation through the area.

Ray Powell, a former U.S. Air Force colonel, tracks the maneuvers of ships and other vessels operating in the South China Sea on a daily basis as the team lead for Stanford University's Project Myoushu. Ray joins Eric & Cobus from Palo Alto to break down the different territorial claims and why this burgeoning maritime conflict is so incredibly important.

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enJune 27, 2023

China's Fanciful Dream to Play Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaker

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas wrapped up a visit to Beijing last week where he heard lofty promises from Chinese officials about their desire to mediate a settlement with Israel. While the visit made for some good headlines, the chances of China jump-starting the stalled peace process are close to zero.

Tuvia Gering, a leading China watcher in Israel and a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Jerusalem, and Jony Essa, CGSP's Arabic Editor, join Eric and Cobus to discuss the key takeaways from the Abbas visit and explain why China is not well-positioned to broker a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians.

SHOW NOTES:

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enJune 21, 2023

If You Lead a Developing Country and Want to Borrow Money From China, Then Listen to This Podcast

The days of China easily handing out billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries around the world are now over. The Chinese can't afford it anymore and many of the borrowing countries just don't have the capacity to take on more debt.

But that doesn't mean the Chinese aren't lending anymore. They are. It's just that the projects they finance today are either small -- below $50 million -- or "beautiful" -- support local communities and align with certain Chinese political objectives.

Edwin Li, a Beijing-based project finance attorney for the international law firm Dentons, detailed these new lending priorities in a recent article and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why it's critical that borrowing countries clearly understand what China does and doesn't fund.

SHOW NOTES:

China ODI Project Finance and Law: How to Define “Xiao Er Mei” (Small or Beautiful) in the Belt and Road Initiative by Edwin Li: https://bit.ly/3MTxde2
Boston University Global Development Policy Center: “Small is Beautiful”: A New Era in China’s Overseas Development Finance? by Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3Hnm8iL

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enJune 07, 2023

Key Lessons From Indonesia's China-Backed Mining & Infrastructure Ventures

Indonesia is a pioneer among developing countries for its efforts in moving up the EV battery metal value chain. Whereas most other countries like the DR Congo and Chile export raw commodities that are processed elsewhere, Indonesia now requires all of the nickel mined in the country to be processed locally.

But just as in the DRC where the Chinese dominate the cobalt mining sector, a similar dynamic is now playing out in Indonesia.

CGSP's Southeast Asia Antonia Timmerman joins Eric & Cobus from Jakarta to talk about China's controversial role in the Indonesian mining business plus how a new Chinese-backed high-speed railway is generating more concern than excitement.

SHOW NOTES:

Rest of World: The dirty road to clean energy: How China’s electric vehicle boom is ravaging the environment by Antonia Timmerman: https://bit.ly/3OGPP3k
The China-Global South Project: Why Many Indonesians Think Jokowi Fumbled Chinese High-Speed Rail Diplomacy, Even As It Nears Completion by Antonia Timmerman: https://bit.ly/45vx5K1

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enMay 25, 2023

The Case for More U.S. Soft Power to Counter China in the Global South

China is one of the very few truly bipartisan issues in Washington today where there is near unanimous consensus that the U.S. must work to counter Beijing's growing influence around the world, especially in developing countries.

The problem is that there is much less agreement on what the U.S. should actually do to respond to the China challenge.

Dan Runde, a senior vice president at the DC-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss his new book that makes the case for why bolstering U.S. soft power is key to persuading Global South countries to favor the United States over China.

SHOW NOTES:

Amazon: The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership through Soft Power by Daniel Runde: https://amzn.to/3OiDPVL
Amazon: The United States vs. China: The Quest for Global Economic Leadership by C. Fred Bergsten: https://amzn.to/3Mv7ols

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enMay 16, 2023

China's Confusing, Contradictory Policy on Coal Power

In September 2021, President Xi Jinping announced at the United Nations that China would immediately halt all financing of coal power projects abroad as part of Beijing's broader ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Since then, the Chinese government has fulfilled that pledge, terminating coal power plant financing deals in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and other countries. But at home, China's policy on coal is very different. In fact, this year alone, the Chinese have approved more than 20gw of new coal power production in just the first three months of the year, more than all of 2021 combined.

Christoph Nedopil Wang, an associate professor at Fudan University and one of the world's leading scholars in Chinese green development finance, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss this striking contradiction in Chinese policy on coal and why China does one thing abroad but another at home.

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enMay 09, 2023

Update on China's Role in the Burgeoning Global South Debt Crisis

There was a lot of excitement earlier this month at the IMF and World Bank's annual gathering in Washington, D.C. about rumors that the impasse between China and multilateral development banks (MDBs) had been resolved. That stalemate between the Chinese and the MDBs, namely the World Bank, has impeded debt restructuring deals in Sri Lanka, Zambia, and now Ghana among other countries.

But now, two weeks later, there's still no official confirmation from either China or the MDBs that they've settled their differences.

Kevin Gallagher, director of the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, attended the Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., and joins Eric & Cobus to give an update on the current state of debt relief for some of the world's poorest countries.

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enApril 25, 2023

U.S.-China Technology Competition in the Global South

The U.S. and China are waging a hard-fought battle today for dominance of global technology standards, particularly in emerging sectors like 5G mobile telecommunications. While China's access to markets in advanced economies is increasingly limited, tech companies like Huawei, ZTE, and Bytedance are rapidly expanding in the Global South.

But the U.S. Congress is adamant to try and limit China's expansion in developing markets by effectively telling countries if you want to work with the U.S., then you can't use Chinese tech.

John Lee is closely following this unfolding competition from Berlin where he's a director at the technology consulting firm East West Futures. John joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what developing countries need to do to avoid becoming collateral damage in the expanding U.S.-China tech duel.

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enApril 18, 2023

The Risks and Rewards of China's New Mideast Diplomacy

When China announced in March that it had brokered a landmark agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties, it took a lot of people by surprise. They just didn't see it coming.

But now, a month later, it appears that the deal is solid. Just last week, the foreign ministers from both countries reconvened in Beijing to finalize the pact and begin the process of reconciliation.

While all of this is very encouraging, William Figueroa, a postdoctoral research associate at the University of Cambridge Centre for Geopolitics and one of the world's foremost Sino-Iran scholars, joins Eric & Cobus to explain why it's still too early to tell if China's new role as the preferred Mideast mediator will succeed.

SHOW NOTES:

William Figueroa on Academia.edu: https://bit.ly/3odawsn
The Diplomat: China and Iran Since the 25-Year Agreement: The Limits of Cooperation by William Figueroa: https://bit.ly/41mfOjN

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enApril 13, 2023

What China's Past Tells Us About the Future of its Foreign Policy in Asia

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim both wrapped up state visits to China last week and their discussions with President Xi Jinping revealed some fascinating linkages between contemporary Chinese foreign policy objectives and Beijing's historical perception of its role as Asia's central power.

Antoine Roth, an international relations scholar at Tohoku University in Japan explores those themes in his new book "A Hierarchical Vision of Order: Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy in Asia." He joins Eric & Cobus from Sendai to discuss what lessons can be drawn from China's diplomatic history in Asia that can inform a better understanding of contemporary trends in Chinese foreign policy in other parts of the world.

SHOW NOTES:

Amazon: A Hierarchical Vision of Order: Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy in Asia by Antoine Roth: https://amzn.to/3m532qN

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enApril 04, 2023

China's Lending Money Again to Countries in the Americas

Chinese lending to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean is gaining momentum. For the second year in a row, China's two largest policy banks have increased lending to countries in the region, albeit in much smaller amounts than what they did a decade ago.

At the same time, there's word that China has spent close to a quarter trillion dollars over the past twenty years to bail out dozens of countries struggling to stay afloat under the weight of such much debt.

Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and Rebecca Ray, two of the world's leading experts in Chinese overseas development finance, joins Eric to discuss how these two seemingly divergent trends actually align with one another and why the Americas is emerging as a key market for Chinese creditors.

SHOW NOTES:

Inter-American Dialogue: At a Crossroads: Chinese Development Finance to Latin America and the Caribbean, 2022 by Margaret Myers and Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3LYKuTK
Boston University Global Development Policy Center: “Small is Beautiful”: A New Era in China’s Overseas Development Finance? by Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3Hnm8iL

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enMarch 30, 2023

Reporting Tips for African Journalists Covering China

Reporting on China is difficult even for the most experienced journalist who's spent years living there and speaks the language. So, it's not surprising that reporters in Africa who've had limited exposure to the country often struggle to cover China-related news.

In this special episode produced in conjunction with the Africa-China Reporting Project (ACRP) at Wits University in Johannesburg, Eric is joined by veteran China Watcher, Kaiser Kuo, founder and host of the popular Sinica podcast, to discuss how African journalists can improve their reporting on China.

The interview with Kaiser was recorded during a live online workshop hosted by ACRP Project Coordinator Bongiwe Tutu that included questions from African journalists who participated in the event.

SHOW NOTES:

The China Project: Listen to the Sinica podcast: https://bit.ly/3lsspTl
South China Morning Post: How Kaiser Kuo became a leading player in China podcasting and kept on rocking: https://bit.ly/3yXkUGU

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enMarch 22, 2023

What Lessons Should the U.S. Take From China's Mideast Diplomatic Breakthrough?

This month's surprise announcement that China brokered the restoration of diplomatic relations between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia prompted widespread excitement in Beijing and considerable consternation among U.S. conservatives. The implication for both is that China's role in the process symbolized the decline of U.S. influence in the region.

Not so says Mohammed Soliman, one of the leading Arab political analysts in Washington, D.C. based at the Middle East Institute and also a manager at McLarty Associates Middle East North Africa Program. Mohammed joins Eric to explain why he thinks the U.S. should not overreact and what lessons policymakers should take from what happened.

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enMarch 16, 2023

What to Make of China's Mideast Diplomatic Breakthrough?

New details are emerging about the landmark diplomatic deal brokered by China for Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations. The initial excitement about the prospects for peace between these two Persian Gulf rivals has given way to a more sober assessment that effectively says the agreement is a good first step but that's about it.

The key test is going to be whether both sides are going to pull back from their proxy fights in places like Yemen. Until that's done, it's still too early to be overly optimistic.

But what does this all say about China's emergence as a key diplomatic power broker? Tuvia Gehring, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and Jacinto Scito, a policy fellow at the London-based Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, are two of the world's foremost scholars on China-Mideast relations and join Eric & Cobus to discuss their reactions to the deal and what it means for China and the wider Middle East.

SHOW NOTES:

The Atlantic Council: Full throttle in neutral: China’s new security architecture for the Middle East by Tuvia Gering: https://bit.ly/3mUNmGQ

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enMarch 15, 2023

Latin America Was Once an Afterthought for China... Not Anymore

In just the past twenty years, China's trade with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean surged 26-fold to almost half-a-trillion dollars. The region is also now a major destination for Chinese foreign investment and becoming a critically important new front in China's geopolitical confrontation with the United States.

While there's no dispute that China is now a major player in the region, knowledge about Chinese engagement in the Americas nonetheless remains surprisingly low, particularly among key stakeholders in Latin America.

A new book, China and Latin America: Development, Agency and Geopolitics by two scholars at the London School of Economics (LSE) aims to change that. Álvaro Méndez, director of LSE's Global South Unit and International Relations Professor Chris Alden join Eric & Cobus to discuss why the Americas is now central to China's global strategy.

SHOW NOTES:

Amazon: China and Latin America: Development, Agency and Geopolitics by Álvaro Méndez and Chris Alden: https://bit.ly/3ZsO502

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enMarch 07, 2023

Wang Huiyao on 'China's Misunderstood Foreign Policy'

Senior-level Chinese stakeholders often contend that one of the main reasons for today's heightened geopolitical tensions between China and the West is due to "misunderstandings" of its foreign policy objectives by outsiders.

Chinese distrust is also fueled by a longstanding feeling of victimization by the West and a sense that they've lost the "narrative battle" in international media.

Wang Huiyao, president and founder of the Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, wants to change that. In a recent column published in the South China Morning Post newspaper, Wang called on Chinese scholars, analysts, and others to "embrace the global internet if it wants to reclaim its narrative."

Wang joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why he thinks China has such a difficult time in communicating its agenda with the rest of the world.

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enFebruary 21, 2023

China, Latin America, and the Rise of a New Non-Aligned Movement

During the first Cold War, a large group of developing countries sought to distance themselves from the ideological battle between the United States and the Soviet Union to create a Non-Aligned Movement.

Today, three decades later, at the dawn of yet another Great Power competition, this time between the U.S. and China, Global South countries are once again saying they don't want any part of it.

Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China and now a research professor at Boston University joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new book he co-edited about how this new movement is taking root in the Americas, Asia, and Africa.

Show Notes:

Amazon: Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option: https://amzn.to/3lJrQ7q
The Conversation: When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries by Adekeye Adebajo: https://bit.ly/3YC3PO7

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