The China-Global South Podcast

U.S. officials are speaking out about the urgency to diversify supply chains for critical resources that are now largely dependent on China, particularly rare earths, cobalt, and lithium that are all essential ingredients in manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.

It's a hot topic this week at Africa's largest mining conference that's taking place in Cape Town. Although senior U.S. diplomats speaking at the conference haven't actually said the word "China," the "C" word is nonetheless clearly on their minds.

CGSP Francophone Editor Christian-Geraud Neema, a leading expert in Congolese mining issues, joins Eric to discuss U.S.-China resource competition in Africa and whether Washington's plan to narrow China's lead will actually work.

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There was a time when Chinese lending to developing countries rivaled the World Bank. Those days are now long gone as Chinese overseas development lending has been on a steady downward trajectory.

New data from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center (GDPC) reports that in 2020-2021, China granted just 28 loan commitments worth just $10.5 billion -- a small fraction of what was lent in the early 2010s.

Rebecca Ray, a senior researcher at GDPC, and Tarela Moses, a data analyst at the center's Global China Initiative join Eric from Boston to discuss the latest trends in Chinese development finance and specifically why Beijing has become much more risk-averse.

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China's two-way trade with countries in the Americas increased 8% last year to $486 billion, nearly twice the volume of what China does in Africa. South America is now a vital source of food, energy, and strategic minerals for China, while markets like Brazil are attracting record amounts of Chinese investment.

Meantime, China's growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean region is also making the U.S. increasingly uncomfortable given that many people in Washington, D.C. still believe that the Western hemisphere remains America's traditional sphere of influence.

But despite China's enormous economic engagement in the region and the geopolitical concerns in the U.S., Pepe Zhang, a senior fellow at The Atlantic Council and one of DC's top China-Americas watchers, contends that China's surging influence is still not getting the attention that it deserves. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to explain why.

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Chinese trade with Africa is widely expected to break yet another record in 2022, while Chinese lending to countries across the continent fell again. Meantime, African leaders this year also forcefully pushed back against both the U.S. and China to avoid becoming collateral damage in their escalating great power struggle.

It was an eventful year indeed for Africa-China relations. Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development and a prominent African international affairs analyst, joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to reflect on the year's key milestones.

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The Chinese debt trap narrative was started based on the purported surrender of the Port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. When Colombo fell behind in its payments to the China Exim Bank for the loan, the story goes, Beijing seized the port as collateral.

Now, six years later, a pair of Sri Lankan researchers, Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala gained access to the original China Exim Bank loan documents for the port and confirmed that the Chinese predatory lending narrative, as it's been told, just isn't true.

The pair join Eric & Cobus to discuss their new report that debunks many of the myths surrounding Chinese lending to Sri Lanka, specifically related to the controversial port.

SHOW NOTES:

• The China-Africa Research Initiative: Evolution of Chinese Lending to Sri Lanka Since the mid-2000s: Separating Myth from Reality by Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala: https://bit.ly/3PF1cHr
• The Diplomat: Demystifying China's role in Sri Lanka's debt restructuring by Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala: https://bit.ly/3v4r3iH

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So much of the international news coverage of Xi Jinping's three-day visit last week to Saudi Arabia was framed in the context of the broader U.S.-China rivalry. The Saudis and other Arab states, according to the prevailing narrative, were pivoting away from their decades-long relationship with the U.S. to embrace China.

But suggesting that some kind of grand geopolitical realignment is taking place in the Middle East is just wrong says Jonathan Fulton, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and one of the world's foremost scholars on China-Mideast relations. 

Jonathan joins Eric & Cobus from Abu Dhabi to explain why journalists should have instead focused more attention on the strategic interests of individual Arab countries.

Show Notes:

• The Routledge Handbook on China–Middle East Relations by Jonathan Fulton: https://bit.ly/3URm5QU
• The China-MENA Podcast: https://bit.ly/3Fm3NBv

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40 countries around the world currently do not have U.S. ambassadors. The corner offices have been empty for months, even years at U.S. embassies in major regional powers like India and Saudia Arabia. Even Italy, a G7 country, doesn't have a U.S. ambassador in place.

The hold-up in getting ambassadors confirmed by the Senate is the consequence of Washington's dysfunctional politics that's adversely impacting the U.S. and its effort to compete with China for influence around the world, particularly in developing countries.

Politico's Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent Nahal Toosi traveled to Panama earlier this year to report on how U.S. diplomacy is struggling to keep up with China's engagement in the region. She joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss her special report on the issue.

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China has built the world's largest and most intrusive surveillance system to monitor the behavior of its people. Millions of cameras, vast databases, and sophisticated online filters work together to form a seemingly omnipresent matrix that overwatches every aspect of daily life.

While China may have pioneered the use of many of these new technologies, today, they are by no means alone. In fact, Chinese companies are now bringing their technology and surveillance expertise to countries around the world -- particularly in the Global South.

Wall Street Journal reporters Liza Lin and Josh Chin, authors of the new book Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the appeal of China's surveillance technology and how much of Beijing's model can be replicated in other developing countries.

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Chinese President returned home from a week of intense diplomacy in Indonesia and Thailand where he attended a pair of summits and held more than a dozen bilaterals with other international leaders.

Both the G20 Summit in Bali and the subsequent APEC leaders summit in Bangkok served as the first time the President was back on the international stage with some of his Western rivals since the beginning of the pandemic.

Collin Koh, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, joins Eric & Cobus to share his views on President Xi's performance and to review what was accomplished at the various summits that took place in Southeast Asia over the past couple of weeks.

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Both the United States and China have restructured their respective foreign policy establishments in recent years to be better poised to confront each other.

In the just concluded 20th Party Congress in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly telegraphed a more aggressive stance towards his U.S. rivals. The U.S. articulated much the same in its latest National Security Strategy released in October that clearly named China as its "most consequential geopolitical challenge.”

Jake Werner, a research fellow in the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how this rivalry is playing out in the developing world where a battle for ideas is now underway.

SHOW NOTES:

• Sinification: Chinese experts react to the U.S.’s National Security Strategy by Thomas des Garets Geddes: https://bit.ly/3VWRt23
• Politico: ‘Frustrated and powerless’: In fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America’s biggest weakness by Nahal Toosi: https://politi.co/3TTlIVW

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It has been a difficult year for China in Pakistan. A burgeoning economic crisis in the South Asian country threatens to undermine the multibillion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor development initiative while anti-Chinese terrorism has surged in recent months.

But amid these serious challenges, there's no indication that ties between Beijing and Islamabad have strained. Ammar Malik, a senior research scientist at AidData, closely follows Sino-Pakistani relations and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why this relationship is so durable.

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It wasn't that long ago that many people thought the longtime rivalry between India and China had begun to subside. In fact, Xi Jinping traveled to India in 2019, his second visit as president, for a profile, seemingly amicable summit with Narendra Modi. But a lot can change in three years.

Today, ties between the two Asian giants are bad and getting worse. Both countries are locked in a bitter stand-off along their disputed border high above in the Himalayas and are engaged in seemingly daily disputes over trade, technology, and geopolitical issues.

And experts like The Hindu newspaper's China correspondent Ananth Krishnan contend there's no indication the situation is going to improve anytime soon. Ananth joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to explain why ties between these two countries have soured so much.

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The Chinese-financed Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya is one of the flagship projects of the Belt and Road Initiative. But the SGR like other Chinese-sponsored railway projects elsewhere in the Global South also serves as a prime example of the risks to developing countries in taking on so much debt.

Keren Zhu, a global China post-doctoral researcher at Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, together with two other scholars recently completed a first-of-its-kind study that explores the winners and losers in the Kenyan SGR project.

She joins Eric & Cobus to share the findings of their research and what it says about the future of the BRI.

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Israel and China are reportedly in the final stages of negotiating a free trade agreement that both sides say will be done before the end of the year. This may come as a surprise to some given how relations between the two countries have been a bit rocky this past year over issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, and pressure from the U.S.

But Israeli officials have made it clear to the U.S. that while they understand why Beijing makes them nervous, the Jewish State simply does not share those same concerns.

Alexander Pevzner, an adjunct lecturer at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Reichman University near Tel Aviv, joins Eric & Cobus to provide an update on the current state of Sino-Israeli ties and why the U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned when it comes to China.

CORRECTION: In this episode, Eric stated there are now direct flights between Saudi Arabia and Israel which is not correct. Instead, the two countries agreed that Saudi Arabia would open its airspace to flights to/from Israel.

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October marks the 9th anniversary of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and after all these years, nearly a decade later, many people around the world are still trying to figure out what exactly the BRI is. What is certain, though, is that China has pulled back considerably on BRI-related financing in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and the Americas.

But in Asia, it's a different story. Chinese lenders are still plowing billions of dollars to build badly-needed infrastructure and that prompted the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to try and help stakeholders on all sides with a new BRI digital tool kit.

Blake Berger, ASPI associate director, was on the team that built the new toolkit and joins Eric and Cobus to explain what it is and how it's intended to be used.

SHOW NOTES:

• Asia Society Policy Institute: Navigating the Belt and Road Initiative Toolkit: https://bit.ly/3BvHuqW

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Every week, The China-Global South Podcast will explore timely issues surrounding China's engagement in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and other developing regions. Hosted by China-Global South Editor in Chief Eric Olander in Vietnam and Managing Editor Cobus van Staden in South Africa, this new program will highlight insights and ideas from leading experts in the Global South.

To help kick off the show, Eric & Cobus are joined by Kaiser Kuo, host of the venerable Sinica Podcast, to discuss what motivated the team to launch this new program and what they're hoping it will achieve.

THIS WEEK'S RECOMMENDATIONS:

ERIC:

• Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development: @gyude_moore
• Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined: @hmryder
• Ovigue Eguegu, Policy Analyst at Development Reimagined: @ovigweeguegu
• Christian-Geraud Neema, Francophone Editor at the China-Global South Project: @christiangeraud

COBUS:

• Amazon: The Specter of Global China: Politics, Labor, and Foreign Investment in Africa by Ching Kwan Lee: https://amzn.to/3RMTKu8

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent South Pacific tour put the region in play as the latest venue for Great Power political rivalries. But even though the ten Pacific Island Countries (PIC) are among the smallest in the world, they came together as a block and dealt Wang a very rare diplomatic defeat when they rebuffed his wide-ranging security and development proposal.

Tim Bryar, founder and editor of the blog Oceania Hypothesis, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why China is now so keen on expanding its influence in the South Pacific and how he thinks the legacy powers in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia will respond.

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