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Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  I will be producing a series of podcasts that help explain to potential investors why distressed debt, specifically, distressed real estate or (REO) and mortgage loans (NPL) may be a good investment to include in your investment portfolio.  There are many issues brewing that could trigger increased REO and NPL opportunities besides the obvious Covid related problems being discussed in the news daily.  Today I will focus on one issue that could cause problems for decades to come.

Currently, most of us are focused on the immediate impact of the Covid crisis, the shut down, unemployment, interest rates and government stimulus.  All these issues have caused the immediate scenario that we are operating in today, but what is the long-term impact?  And does this long-term impact create a long-term opportunity for NPL and REO buyers?

As most of the news talks about enforcing mandatory lockdowns and handing out money to citizens, there has been a problem that has been rapidly expanding in the background.  In fact, this problem might create a crisis that will not just be felt in the next week, the next month, or even the next year, but it might be felt for several decades to come. 

For distressed debt buyers, it could be the calm before the storm.  Some deals are floating about with investors pricing them as a sort of reconnaissance exercise to determine the bid/ask levels.

The first wave to hit was leveraged lenders, but most expect a sharp increase in deal flow by the 3rd or 4th quarter once participants on both the buy and sell side have more transparency on how the Covid-19 issue will play out.

Joining the podcast to discuss the approaching NPL opportunity is David LeBlanc, Managing Director at DebtX.  David covers banks, investment banks, opportunity funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors active in the secondary market. David previously ran DebtX's trading desk for 10 years, including during the great financial crisis. He has traded over $30B in distressed and performing commercial and residential real estate and corporate debt in the secondary market. 

In just a matter of days, origination of alternative loans, known as “non-QM lending,” came to an abrupt halt.  Non-QM investors worry about risk in an economy shaken by COVID-19 and have stopped buying new loans.

Non-QM lenders now have loans sitting in their pipeline with no buyers.  This creates a problem for lenders as most are not set up to own loans and are required to move the loans off their warehouse lines.

Joining the podcast to discuss buying and selling in the alternative loan market is Stephen Bone, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Banes Capital Group.  Stephen’s desk trades non-governmental guaranteed residential and commercial whole loans.

More than 10 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March due to Covid-19 and some analysts predict the unemployment rate could climb to 25%.  Florida was hit hard in the 2008 crash and many in the state fear the Covid-19 shut down could result in more foreclosures and bankruptcies seen in past recessions.

Joining the podcast to discuss what to do now to prepare your portfolio for increased defaults in Florida is Harris Howard, managing partner of the Howard Law Group.  Harris focuses his practice on the representation of servicers and investors in real estate litigation. 

The bond purchasing program initiated by the fed along with the impact of COVID-19 has created extreme volatility in the 10-year treasury which influences long-term mortgage rates.  Just this month, the 10-year ranged from 45 basis points to 1.2%.

As a result of the erratic bond movement, there has been a wave of margin calls by broker-dealers who sold hedges to mortgage bankers quickly eroding the bankers working capital.

Joining the podcast to discuss the mortgage market is Brent Nyitray, Director of Capital Markets at Ark Mortgage.  Brent is also the author of the Daily Tear Sheet’s, “Morning Report”, a daily update on financial markets and the economy.

Servicers are required to advance principal and interest on securitized mortgage loans to investors even if the borrower stops making payments.

Earlier this week, to the dismay of many in the servicing industry, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it has no plans to create a federally backed liquidity facility to assist struggling servicers.  In fact, The Agency will simply transfer servicing in the event a servicer lacks enough cash on hand, most likely causing another round of servicing consolidation or perhaps forcing some servicers out of business.

Joining the podcast to discuss servicing in todays COVID-19 environment is Gagan Sharma, President and CEO of BSI Financial Services.  Gagan acquired BSI Financial from a bank in 2006 and has grown BSI to one of the top nationwide special servicing platforms