When the Wagner mercenary group staged a near coup in Moscow in June, it was seen as the greatest challenge to Vladimir Putin’s regime in decades. Though it didn’t come to fruition, it nevertheless exposed some of the fissures in Putin’s ironclad control over the military and the course of the war on Ukraine. Could it be a harbinger of future revolts? How do Russian citizens feel about the continuation of the war? We speak with three scholars of history and political science to find out what this event might mean for Russia’s war machine and for Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
The Wagner rebellion may open the possibility of future revolts, but only if Ukraine’s counteroffensive makes more progress, says Serhii Plokhy. He reminds us of Russia’s past defeats and its pattern of regime change linked to failures on the battlefield.
In spite of its grave losses, Ukrainian morale remains high, says Alexadra Vacroux. But the war is forcing the population to undergo a major demographic shift, which will have a profound impact on the country’s recovery.
Sasha de Vogel gives insight into public opinion in Russia, the consequences for speaking out against the war, and why there is so little civil resistance. She dispels Western myths about the suppression and repression of Russian citizens and believes Putin will keep fighting this war until death.
Finally, the scholars share their opinions on what is needed to end this devastating war.
This episode was produced in collaboration with the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Ukrainian Research Institute, both at Harvard University.
Host:
Erin Goodman, Executive Director of the Weatherhead Center
Guests:
Sasha de Vogel, Postdoctoral Researcher, Authoritarian Politics Lab, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Former Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow, Weatherhead Scholars Program.
Serhii Plokhy, Faculty Associate. Mykhailo S. Hrushevs'kyi Professor of Ukrainian History, Department of History; Director, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University.
Alexandra Vacroux, Executive Director, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University.
Producer/Director:
Michelle Nicholasen, Editor and Content Producer, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.
Related Links:
- “A War With No End in Sight” by Sasha de Vogel (Dissent Magazine, April 2023)
- “Anti-opposition crackdowns and protest: the case of Belarus, 2000–2019” by Sasha de Vogel (Post-Soviet Affairs, Volume 38, 2022)
- “Feminized forced migration: Ukrainian war refugees” by Alexandra Vacroux et al. (Women's Studies International Forum [Women and the 2022 War in Ukraine]:1-10 2023)
- “How to Help Ukraine Stand Its Ground” by Alexandra Vacroux (Boston Globe, February 23, 2023)
- “Are the West’s Sanctions on Russia Working?” by Alexandra Vacroux et al. (Just Money, October 31, 2022)
- “Insight on Syria: What Are Putin's Motives?” by Alexandra Vacroux et al. (Epicenter, April 3, 2018)
- The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History by Serhii Plokhy (W. W. Norton, May 2023)
- The Frontline: Essays on Ukraine’s Past and Present by Serhii Plokhy (Harvard University Press, November 2021)
- “Through the Ashes of the Minsk Agreements” by Lidia Powirska (Epicenter, May 18, 2022)
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Episode Credits:
- Hosted by Erin Goodman, Executive Director of the Weatherhead Center
- Produced, edited, and mixed by Michelle Nicholasen, Editor and Content Producer at the Weatherhead Center
Follow the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs:
