overconfidence

What is overconfidence? We tend to know it when we see it, but the concept is increasingly hard to nail down the more you think about it. In this Stuff to Blow Your Mind two-parter, Robert and Joe explore the mythic roots of hubris, the psychology of overconfidence and its role in society and business. (Originally published 2/27/2020)

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What is overconfidence? We tend to know it when we see it, but the concept is increasingly hard to nail down the more you think about it. In this Stuff to Blow Your Mind two-parter, Robert and Joe explore the mythic roots of hubris, the psychology of overconfidence and its role in society and business. (Originally published 2/25/2020)

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is overconfidence? We tend to know it when we see it, but the concept is increasingly hard to nail down the more you think about it. In this Stuff to Blow Your Mind two-parter, Robert and Joe explore the mythic roots of hubris, the psychology of overconfidence and its role in society and business.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Every day, people are bombarded with predictions of what will happen in the future. In recent months, talk of 'inflection points' in the markets has heated up, and the possibility of the U.S. economic expansion, now the longest in history, coming to an end is being actively discussed. But how do we know if such predictions are good ones? And how can we learn to be better forecasters ourselves? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Philip Tetlock, the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology and Management at the University of Pennsylvania, and the author of numerous books and papers on the topic of predictions. 

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When it comes to investing, your brain can be your best friend or your worst enemy. My guest today explains how, and what you can do to ensure your brain is a staunch ally in your quest for financial security. His name is Daniel Crosby, he’s a psychologist, behavioral finance expert, and the author of The Behavioral Investor. We begin our conversation discussing the surprising ways sociology and physiology influence our financial decisions. We then delve into the psychological factors that cause us to make bad investing decisions, including ego, conservatism, attention, and emotion. Daniel then walks us through ways you can mitigate those factors in your financial choices. We end our discussion outlining what an investing framework looks like based on principles of behavioral science.

While the principles discussed in this show relate to making sound choices in the area of financial investing, they're really relevant to making good decisions of every kind.

Get the show notes at aom.is/behavioralinvestor.

Pundits and prognosticators make predictions all the time: about everything from elections, to sports, to global affairs. This week on Hidden Brain, we explore why they're often wrong, and how we can all do it better.

As we sail through this world of technological marvel and complex systems, it’s easy to assume we know the watery depths that yawn beneath our hull. As it turns out, however, it’s all an illusion of explanatory depth. We think we understand day-to-day gadgets, but are at a loss to explain their functionality. We think we understand policy and politics, but are better at explaining why we hold our beliefs than how particular policies might solve life’s hideous problems. In this two-part episode of Stuff to Blow Your Mind, Robert and Joe dip into the waters of cognitive illusion.

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