pandemics

As world leaders and the WHO meet in Davos to discuss “Disease X” - a future pandemic that could cause 20 times more fatalities than Covid-19 – debate around the crucial chicken and egg question is being postponed. Namely, which came first, the risky gain of function experiments or the disease?

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) spent 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability.

Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, The Bed of Procrustes, and Skin in the Game), covering broad facets of uncertainty. His work has been published into 49 languages.

In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 70 technical and scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, genetics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, medicine, philosophy, ethics, economics, and international affairs around the notion of risk and probability (grouped in the Technical Incerto).

Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (retired). His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile").

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Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott) is an investigative reporter for The Wall Street Journal, currently based in Washington DC, working on climate and energy policy. His new book is Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis, a profile of the rise of “black-swan traders,” such as Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel, as well as a survey of the many perils the world faces today—and how we might fix them.

Scott has covered everything from Berkshire Hathaway to stock exchanges to high-speed traders to the financial regulators. His first book, The Quants, describes the rise of mathematical finance and delves into its role in the 2008 financial blowup. Dark Pools, his second book, tells how computer traders took control of the U.S. stock market, starting from the birth of computer trading in the 1980s to the explosion of high-frequency trading in the late 2000s.

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[09:44] How Scott and Nassim first connected.

[12:02] Why Nassim would rather be remembered as a scholar than a trader.

[14:01] You can’t forge a new friendship without breaking a few eggs.

[16:22] Silent risk, tail events, and one-trick ponies.

[25:56] What prompted Scott to write Chaos Kings?

[33:41] Pseudo-efficiency, pseudo-optimization, and pseudo-sorries.

[36:49] The joy of writing a preemptive resignation letter.

[37:39] Developing resilience against criticism.

[40:33] Recurring patterns in successful investors.

[44:15] Nassim: contrarian, or simply independent?

[46:44] Jiving with skeptical turkeys.

[51:53] Living in the polycrisis.

[53:54] The precautionary principle.

[1:00:07] Fat tails, thin tails, and the COVID vaccine.

[1:11:03] GMO risks and Monsanto intimidation tactics.

[1:14:45] Implementing the precautionary principle at a large scale.

[1:16:49] Uncertainty and the climate crisis.

[1:19:45] Convexity in the face of financial crisis.

[1:27:12] Are investors overpowered in an interconnected world?

[1:31:36] Utilizing the precaution principle in the real world (for better and worse).

[1:36:53] The flow-on effect of having skin in the game.

[1:39:37] The ponzification of startups and an overdue reckoning.

[1:42:51] What convexity at the center of all things conveys.

[1:49:27] Where to find Scott and Nassim.

[1:50:44] What Nassim is working on now.

[1:53:37] New insights from ancient words.

[1:57:26] Parting thoughts.

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In this 165th in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we discuss the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.

This week we discuss mis-, dis-, and mal- information, and terrorism, in light of testimony before Congress regarding the Twitter files and government interference in the exchange of information. We learn how the government would like us to quash narratives that it finds displeasing or inconvenient. We discuss the nature of respiratory disease and pandemics, and consider how much of the destruction that happened in the last three years might have been iatrogenic: caused by medical treatment (rather than by the virus). We consider what happened in 2018-2019, during the Spanish Flu, and the evidence that much of the damage then might have been iatrogenic—specifically from exceedingly high doses of aspirin. And we share the words of theologian Paul Tillich, who broadcast warnings and passion into Nazi Germany, his homeland, to reach the people and encourage resistance.

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Theme Music: Thank you to Martin Molin of Wintergatan for providing us the rights to use their excellent music.

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Mentioned in this episode:

Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government Hearing on the Twitter Files (3-9-23): https://www.youtube.com/live/i-Ip_MHYmkY?feature=share

Anyone, at anytime, can spread malinformation (clip from DarkHorse Livestream #115, first aired 2-13-22): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTOWCZEkNiI

Rumor Control Page Startup Guide: https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/rumor-control-startup-guide_508.pdf

The Greatest Lie Told During Covid, by gato malo, in bad cattitude, 3-8-23: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-greatest-lie-told-during-covid

Starko 2009. Salicylates and pandemic influenza mortality, 1918–1919 pharmacology, pathology, and historic evidence. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 49(9): 1405-1410. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441?fbclid=IwAR0m4SSuPqedlg8

The Supreme Court prepares to overturn Roe v. Wade, Senator Amy Klobuchar talks about the threat to abortion rights, and Bill Gates discusses his book "How to Prevent the Next Pandemic."

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Lifted restrictions! Discarded masks! Vaxxing & relaxing! Parties. Variant confusion. FOMO while also dreading events. Worry about strangers. Grief for a cancelled year. WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE? We’ve got you covered. As infection rates go down and restrictions lift in the U.S., you may feel: relieved, overjoyed, nude without a mask, guilty about surviving, conflicted about gatherings, or mourning a loss. We gathered a small army of experts to chat about historical quarantines and recovery periods, vaccine rates, economic projections, the mental state of healthcare workers and the grief that can follow an historical event. Geoff Manaugh and Nicola Twilley (of Gastropod) join to chat about researching their stellar new book “Until Proven Safe,” Jessica Malaty-Rivera updates us on vaccine rates and variants, Dr. Mike Natter checks in from New York and thanatologist Cole Imperi gives step-by-step instructions for taking care of your brain during transitions and “shadowlosses.” I hope this episode serves you well; I just really needed to make it.

Pre-order Geoff Manaugh and Nicola Twilley’s book Until Proven Safe: The History and Future of Quarantine; more info at untilprovensafe.com

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Donations were made to: #IndiaAgainstCoronaVirus, 500 Women Scientists, and The School of American Thanatology

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Michael Lewis’s new book, “The Premonition,” is about one of the most important questions of this moment: Why, despite having the most money, the brightest minds and the some of the most robust public health infrastructure in the world, did the United States fail so miserably at handling the Covid-19 pandemic? And what could we have done differently?

The villain of Lewis’s story is not Donald Trump; it’s the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The argument laced through the book is that the C.D.C. was too passive, too unwilling to act on uncertain information, too afraid of making mistakes, too interested in its public image. What we needed was earlier shutdowns, frank public messaging, a more decentralized testing regime, a public health bureaucracy more willing to stand up to the president.

Lewis is asking the right question, and I agree with much of his critique. But I’m skeptical of whether the kind of pandemic response he lionizes in the book was ever possible for America. Put another way: How much of a constraint is the public on public health?

Lewis and I discuss the trade-offs in pandemic prevention, why bureaucracies have such a difficult time managing catastrophic risk, the messy politics of pandemics, the lessons of the masking debate, and ultimately, what the United States needs to learn from this crisis to prepare for the next one. I’m not sure Lewis and I came to agreement, but I’m still thinking about the conversation weeks later.

Mentioned in this episode: 

“Public policy and health in the Trump era,” The Lancet 

Recommendations: 

"Klara and the Sun" by Kazuo Ishiguro

"Young Men and Fire" by Norman McLean 

"Furious Hours" by Casey Cep

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of "The Ezra Klein Show" at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein.

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld, audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin.

In this nearly 4-hour SPECIAL EPISODE, Rob Reid delivers a 100-minute monologue (broken up into 4 segments, and interleaved with discussions with Sam) about the looming danger of a man-made pandemic, caused by an artificially-modified pathogen. The risk of this occurring is far higher and nearer-term than almost anyone realizes. 

Rob explains the science and motivations that could produce such a catastrophe and explores the steps that society must start taking today to prevent it. These measures are concrete, affordable, and scientifically fascinating—and almost all of them are applicable to future, natural pandemics as well. So if we take most of them, the odds of a future Covid-like outbreak would plummet—a priceless collateral benefit. 

If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe.

Sam Harris speaks with Nicholas Christakis about the Covid-19 pandemic. They discuss the breakdown of trust in institutions and experts, the corruption of science by politics, the ineptitude of the Trump administration in handling the pandemic, whether the gravity of Covid-19 has been exaggerated, preparing for future pandemics, whether Covid deaths are being over-reported, bad incentives in the medical system, tracking "excess death" statistics, the prospect that the novel coronavirus will evolve to become more benign, the efficacy of current treatments, safety concerns about a rushed vaccine, the importance of public health communication, when life might return to normal, the economic impact of the pandemic, long term social changes, the future of universities, Nicholas's personal habits during the pandemic, the importance of rapid testing, and other topics.

If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe.

Trevor compares America's handling of the Spanish flu and COVID-19, Desi Lydic checks in on her uncle Rudy, and Esther Perel discusses her podcast "Where Should We Begin."

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Folks, it’s a megasode. Not one, but 4 ologists. “Coronavirus” is on everyone’s lips -- and some people’s hands -- but what is it? Where did it come from? How does it spread? How dangerous is it? What should we do? Who’s most at risk? Was it biowarfare? Do bats spread it? Should you wear a mask? Can we still smooch our dogs on the face? Do we need to doomsday prep? What’s it like to live in a leper colony? Alie sits down with Dr. Shannon Bennett: a microbiologist, a molecular epidemiologist, a virologist and the Chair of Science at the California Academy Science. She is deeply informed and warm and charming and patient. All these questions will be answered and your panic will be swapped out for informed, empowered action and compassion. You will also wash your hands a lot. Whether or not you bathe in whiskey is up to you.

Follow: Dr. Shannon Bennett at twitter.com/microbeexplorer and Instagram.com/microbeexplorer

Listen to Chiropterology (BATS) with Dr. Merlin Tuttle

Listen to Disasterology (EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT) with Dr. Samantha Montano

Listen to Disinfectiology (BLEACH) with Dr. Evan Rumberger

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This episode covers the following -- since our previous deep-dive on the novel coronavirus outbreak -- including:

1. practical implications for the U.S. healthcare system given how it works today, and where we might go in the future — with a16z general partner Julie Yoo, given our vantage point in tech; and
2. how the rt-PCR test works — with a16z bio partner Judy Savitskaya;

…in conversation with Sonal Chokshi.

Sources for updates at top:

• CDC's latest briefing February 26, 2020, transcript
• WHO situation report #27  February 25, 2020 [we covered #6 and #25 on previous episodes]

Sources for last week's episode:

• latest numbers: cases in the U.S. (CDC, as of February 17, 2020); global cases (WHO situation report #25, February 14, 2020); spike in diagnosing cases as reported in China (SCMP, Scott Gottlieb)
• situation & policy statements/reports: CDC summary (as of February 14, 2020); “Annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies”, WHO (Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, 2019)
• on definitions (of pandemics, endemics), other terms, and various naming conventions: “Understanding pandemics: What they mean, what they don’t mean, and what comes next with the coronavirus”, Helen Branswell, StatNews (February 12, 2020); on disease occurrence and levels (CDC); “misinfodemic“; best practices on naming new human infectious diseases (WHO); qPCR (Keith Robison)

image: CDC test kit for COVID-19/ Wikimedia Commons