pig prices

The National Pork Board collaborates with third-party experts to analyze both micro and macro-economic implications related to the challenging business landscape that American pig farmers confront. Accordingly, NPB’s producer-led board of directors allocates Pork Checkoff funds judiciously, focusing on short- and long-term demand creation strategies to enhance the value of pork and overcome barriers to consumption. 

Joining Feedstuffs in Focus host Sarah Muirhead to discuss the hog industry's current economic challenges and demand growth for pork are Dr. Steve Meyer, economist with Partners for Production Agriculture, and Bill Even, CEO of the National Pork Board.

The National Pork Board firmly believes that all stakeholders in the pork industry, and ultimately consumers, will benefit from a better overall understanding of the economics of pork production. That said, it is always advisable to seek independent advice from a professinal before making any economic decision.

Pork Checkoff funds are being used to make this podcast possible, with the primary purpose of facilitating the understanding of publicly available economic information.  Stay connected with Pork Checkoff by signing up for the checkoff’s weekly email at porkcheckoff.org/email

Any economic analysis, projections or opinions presented are solely those of Dr Meyer and do not represent the views or opinions of nor are they endorsed by the National Pork Board. All producers should seek independent advice from a professional before making any economic decisions.  

These days there is an election being held every day on the trading floor, says senior market analyst David Bauer of Provimi. In this week’s episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Bauer uses the recent post office situation as the perfect example of what he means by this. Many have been sowing the seeds that the U.S. postal service slowdowns were actual actions taken that have created dire problems. Others have said it was constructed election year propaganda aimed at selling a message in hopes of gaining emotional support for an agenda. 

It is the same thing going on each day in our ag futures markets, says Bauer. In the grains industry, depending on whether you're a livestock feeder or a grain farmer and depending on the radio station or TV show that you listen to, the messages being sent by media outlets can easily play on the emotions of the audience. Knowing this, media looks to create the message that plays on that emotion. This is nothing new. But in times like these, Bauer cautions that such messages can easily get in the way of reality. The point to be made, he says is to is understand where information is coming from in these times of making risk management decisions. Realize that an election can be considered risk management. 

When making production sales decisions and input purchase decisions, make sure you step back from the emotion, look at the entire picture and not get caught up in the contrived emotion of weather scares and crop conditions. Take the emotion out of it. It is late August and crops biologically die at this time of year. Has weather impacted crop condition, crop progress and yields? Absolutely. Are massive sales to China good? Absolutely. But remember it is China and we've been through these emotional runs before and they don't always end well, notes Bauer. 

Situations like COVID, the hurricanes and others disaster in the past couple of weeks are doubling down the political pressures of bailouts and finger pointing. Bauer says he has heard it said that geopolitical risks can be more damaging than wars and embargoes. So, when making risk management decisions always step back and understand why you're making the decision in the first place and always ask yourself if your decision is based on emotion or is it in the best interest of your business? Are you being reactive or are you working to be proactive? Or put another way, are you being margin focused or market focused? 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The U.S. slaughter industry is centuries old and has taken decades to get where it is today. Still, claims against the industry over the past year have some questioning whether it should be dismantled.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, provides his perspective on the slaughter sector and why he believe during the time of crisis, like the industry has been in, is not when such ideas should be put in motion. 

So maybe it's not time to destroy the house they built just yet, but rather figure out how it can be more efficient and effective, says Bauer. 

As an industry he noted, we've come to rely just as heavily, perhaps even more so on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly pork exports. Bauer raise the discussion point of who has controlled that in the past year. Yep, China. 

That said, China's rate of importing commodities is slowing as the global COVID resurgence has led China to impose greater limitations on import testing. So what’s the market look like and what’s ahead, Bauer walks us through his thinking. In doing so, he notes that the U.S. cannot rely on exports alone to get it out of the current supply issue. Disrupting plants won't work either. Nobody wants to hear it, but the solution would be to reduce production, says Bauer.

And what's the word on forward profitability? Well, strong pork export trends through July translated into strength in cash hogs, pork products and futures contracts, providing measurable improvement in margin. But again, to be clear, Bauer points out that those price improvements merely helped to reduce losses, not put producers in the black, 

The most positive note, he said, is that weights have now fallen to 208 to 210 lb. per carcass. What does that all mean? Take a listen. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

We start this week with a message of unity and urging to stay strong, America. We will get through these challenging times, says Feedstuffs Precision Pork host and Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer.

In the news this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly export report. Bauer walks us through that and what it all means. 

Also addressed are daily slaughter rates, which have reached as much as 92% of capacity, resulting in a couple of weeks of 2.59 million and 2.62 5 million head kills. Bauer explains that packer run rates are no longer the headline story. Yes, they are still key, but the focus now turns to processing and food service capacity. “It's now their turn to drive supply chain recovery, and the resulting demand will drive price recovery,” says Bauer.

Slaughter may be back at 92% of daily capacity but it has been at a cost to product values. The supply chain is like a multidimensional puzzle and run rates are but one dimension of that puzzle, says Bauer.

On the topic of profitability, the forward curve is holding value and on Thursday even made some technical moves higher. It still is dependent on when we can reduce the backlog of market animals created by disrupted supply chain per USDA, says Bauer.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com