prediction markets

Prolonged range bound markets are a hallmark of bearmarkets and they usually end up chopping inexperienced or over leveraged traders. Customised structured products offer a solution for market participants that want to limit their downside, but also the upside, by introducing knock-outs at certain levels or triggers. Such custom options, usually with lower probabilistic chances of occurring, naturally come at a discount. This allows traders to hedge their risk, while also betting on certain outcomes or market scenarios.

We were joined by Zhiming Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, to discuss crypto derivatives and how TradFi expertise applies to customising structured products for crypto markets.

Topics covered in this episode:

• Zhiming’s background in investment banking
• FX derivative products
• Exotic options
• Crypto structured products
• Custom solutions for crypto miners
• Hedging Uniswap V3 impermanent loss
• Options based on prediction markets
• Managing counterparty risk
• Protocolising structured products
• Differences between TradFi and DeFi

Episode links:

• Zhiming Yang on LinkedIn
• Orbit Markets on Twitter
• Orbit Markets website

Sponsors:

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This episode is hosted by Meher Roy. Show notes and listening options: epicenter.tv/535

Today’s guest is Chris Maree, a senior engineer at UMA protocol. Chris got into crypto several years ago and is a wealth of knowledge on solidity development, DeFi, & cryptoeconomics. In this episode, we go deep on engineering at UMA, and got to ask Chris a ton of questions about smart contract design patterns. We discuss the cryptoeconomics of UMA’s optimistic oracle, the low level design of UMA’s Across bridge, gas optimization, security, and Chris’ long term vision for the space.

If you’re an engineer interested in smart contract development & DeFi, we think you’re going to love this one.

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
3:10 How Chris got involved in crypto

6:50 UMA’s optimistic oracle

11:39 Examples of long tail data usage in web3

13:45 Walking through technical examples of how the optimistic oracle works

23:00 The use of ‘ancillary data' to turn the optimistic oracle into a ‘Turing complete’ oracle

27:31 Behind the scenes on the Optimistic Oracle design

31:53 What is Across: bridging as a lending problem vs bridging as a swapping problem

34:00 The Across Hub & Spoke Model For Liquidity

38:00 Can you pass call data across chains with Across?

39:30 The use of ‘bundles’ in Across

49:20 Favorite UMA design patterns

52:03 UMA engineering design practices 

58:04 Chris’ approach to security and engaging auditors

1:00:06 Trends Chris is excited about (Cross chain MEV, NFT derivatives)

1:02:50 Chris’ long term vision for the future of crypto

Links: https://docs.umaproject.org/
Chris on Github: https://github.com/chrismaree

What if I told you there was going to be a new leader in prediction markets solutions.  Here’s a hot new project for you that incorporates prediction markets, a liquidity engine, and gaming. I have Phillip and Ivan here to tell you about Nezha, a project that takes traditional prediction market mechanics and optimizes them. This could be a game-changer in DeFi and gaming.

Dive right in, and let’s explore this liquidity engine for next-generation prediction markets.

Find out more here: https://www.nezha.fi/

Full Show Notes at: https://newtocrypto.io/episode/introducing-nezha-liquidity-engine-for-next-generation-prediction-markets/

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Learn all about what exactly DeFi or Decentralized Finance is, how it relates in crypto, and the top applications its used for. Find out which are the top blockchains in DeFi. Join your host Crypto Travels Michael as he shares what exactly is DeFi.

The New to Crypto Podcast is designed to guide you through the crypto landscape with pinpoint accuracy. New episodes are added daily. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast and listen to all of the episodes to help you in your cryptocurrency journey.

I’d love to hear from you! Email me at show@newtocrypto.io and let’s chat.

LEAVE A REVIEW + help someone who wants to explode their business growth by sharing this episode or click here to listen to our previous episodes.

Disclaimer: New To Crypto is a podcast for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by the hosts and guests should not be considered as financial advice. Views expressed by guests and the host do not reflect the views of the show. Listeners should perform their own research. 

Corey and Dee are back together again to talk about the media, hardware wallets, human behavior, sleazy financial markets, and how Dee wants to do Documentary.
Links: The Bitcoin Podcast Network

• Website

• Twitter

• HIO #86 Vitalik Buterin

• Slack-Join

• Donate!

• Discuss

Logos Press Engine includes Logos Podcast and Hashing It Out. Hashing it Out dives into the mechanisms and hardware of the technology that aid in making sovereign communities. 

Corey and Dee are back together again to talk about the media, hardware wallets, human behavior, sleazy financial markets, and how Dee wants to do Documentary.
Links: The Bitcoin Podcast Network

• Website

• Twitter

• HIO #86 Vitalik Buterin

• Slack-Join

• Donate!

• Discuss

Logos Press Engine includes Logos Podcast and Hashing It Out. Hashing it Out dives into the mechanisms and hardware of the technology that aid in making sovereign communities. 

Can you predict the future? Or at least gauge the probability of political or economic events in the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful amateurs. Tetlock finds that teams of amateurs trained in gathering information and thinking about it systematically outperformed experts in assigning probabilities of various events in a competition organized by IARPA, research agency under the Director of National Intelligence. In this conversation, Tetlock discusses the meaning, reliability, and usefulness of trying to assign probabilities to one-time events.

Dan Klein, of George Mason University, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts on truth in economics, bias, and groupthink in academic life. Along the way they discuss the Food and Drug Administration (and the drug approval process), the culture of academic life and the roles of empirical evidence and prediction markets in adjudicating academic disagreement. The conversation closes with a discussion of Econ Journal Watch--the watchdog journal Klein founded and edits--and an invitation to listeners to join a discussion of The Theory of Moral Sentiments by Adam Smith.

Robin Hanson, of George Mason University, argues that health care is different, but not in the usual ways people claim. He describes a set of paradoxical empirical findings in the study of health care and tries to explain these paradoxes in a unified way. One of his arguments is that the human brain evolved in ways that make it hard for us to be rational about health care. He also discusses using prediction markets as a way of designing health care policy.

Cass Sunstein of the University of Chicago talks about the ideas in his latest book, Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge. What are the best ways to get the information needed to make wise decisions when that information is spread out among an organization's members or a society's citizens? He argues that prediction markets can help both politicians and business leaders make better decisions and discusses the surprising ways they're already being used today. Deliberation, the standard way we often gather information at various kinds of meetings, has some unpleasant biases that hamper its usefulness relative to surveys and incentive-based alternatives.