Podcast Summary
Generational archetypes follow a 80-year cycle: Historian Neil Howe and William Strauss identified distinct generational archetypes, including the greatest generation, baby boomers, and millennials, each contributing to significant cultural shifts, and predict a new generational archetype will emerge soon.
History follows a cyclical pattern of generational archetypes that repeat every 80 years, according to historian Neil Howe and his co-author William Strauss. These generational archetypes, including the greatest generation, baby boomers, and millennials, each have distinct characteristics and contribute to significant cultural shifts. The Strauss-How theory predicts that we are currently in a crisis phase, where a new generational archetype will emerge to shape the geopolitical and economic landscape in the next decade. The authors did not initially intend to focus on cycles but discovered patterns of generations following each other throughout history, linking to broader historical crises. Their work has become influential in understanding generational dynamics and cultural shifts.
A history of America's future: Understanding generational turning points and awakenings: Exploring history through the lens of generational turning points and awakenings offers a more nuanced understanding of the past and its impact on different generations, shaping America's future.
History can be viewed as a series of generational turning points and awakenings that shape the cultural and societal landscape of America. This approach, as presented by the speakers, differs from traditional historical narratives as it focuses on following the same groups of people throughout their lives, rather than focusing on what everyone was doing in each year. This method allows for a more nuanced understanding of historical events and their impact on different generations. The speakers call this method a "history of America's future" as it provides insights into the coming of age and leadership of different generations, and how they shape history in their unique ways. This perspective on history emphasizes the importance of understanding the collective experiences and narratives of different generations to gain a deeper appreciation for the complexities of American history.
Predicting the Future Inaccurately with Linear Projections: Instead of making linear projections based on current trends and age brackets, look at historical trends and generational shifts for a more accurate understanding of the future.
Making linear projections based on current trends and age brackets is an inaccurate way to predict the future. The discussion highlights the example of millennials, where predictions made based on their early upbringing and culture in the 1990s did not align with the reality of their behavior and values as they grew older. Instead, it's important to look at historical trends and generational shifts for a more accurate understanding of what's to come. The speakers also mentioned that there have been similar shifts in the past, such as around the year 1900, which led to the emergence of generations with distinct characteristics.
Generational Turnings: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis: Millennials are predicted to be more special, closer to parents, achievement-oriented, and community-focused due to their position in the generational cycle.
The sociological patterns observed in the past, specifically the transition from a dark, angsty generation to a social, conformist one, allowed researchers Bill Strauss and Neil Howe to predict the traits and behaviors of the millennial generation. They coined this concept as the "saculum," a long human lifetime, and divided it into four turnings: a high, an awakening, an unraveling, and a crisis. The high turning is a time of social order and conformity, while the awakening is a period of individualism and idealism. The unraveling is marked by increasing anxiety and instability, and the crisis is a time of dramatic change and upheaval. By examining the generational archetypes and their corresponding turnings, Strauss and Howe predicted that millennials would be more special, closer to their parents, achievement-oriented, and community-focused, leading to the rise of social media and a new sense of transparency and sharing. While there is concern about the potential loss of individualism and grit in the millennial generation, it is essential to consider the unique strengths and characteristics they bring to the table, which older generations may not have had.
The Four Seasons of the Saculum: Crisis, High, Awakening, and Regeneration: Society experiences cycles of collective progress and individual awakening, leading to crises, highs, awakenings, and regenerations. The millennial generation is currently contributing to the regeneration of social values.
Throughout history, societies experience cycles of collective progress and individual awakening, which are referred to as the four seasons of the saculum. After a crisis comes a period of high, where institutions are strong and society feels a sense of collective progress. Following this, there is an awakening period where people seek authenticity and individuality, leading to social tumult. The third turning is a time of individual triumph and institutional weakness. However, society cannot continuously discredit social life and champion individualism, and eventually, there is a regeneration of social values. The millennial generation is currently contributing to this regeneration of social values.
Cycles of Renewal and Change: History moves in cycles of renewal and change, marked by idealism, cynicism, crisis, and new beginnings.
History moves in cycles of renewal and change, with each cycle bringing about distinct societal moods and generational shifts. The first turning is an awakening, marked by idealism and a desire for social order. The second turning is a unraveling, characterized by cynicism and individualism. The third turning is a crisis, where people feel lost and desire order again, leading to the destruction and replacement of institutions. The fourth turning is a new beginning, where a new social order emerges. This process has repeated throughout history, and we can see it in the rise and fall of various cultural movements and societal structures. For example, the 1920s saw the rise of jazz and the Harlem Renaissance, which gave way to big band music and swing in the 1930s. Similarly, the edge and desperation of early hip hop has largely been replaced in today's scene. Understanding these cycles can help us make sense of the world around us and the role we play in shaping it.
Understanding societal shifts through the Fourth Turning theory: The Fourth Turning theory explains how societies go through cycles of crisis and awakening, with each cycle lasting around 80-100 years. We're currently in the midst of another crisis and awakening, marked by the shift from seeing individualism as a threat to embracing it at the highest levels.
The cultural and societal shifts we've experienced over the past century can be understood through the lens of the Fourth Turning theory. This theory describes how societies go through cycles of crisis and awakening, with each cycle lasting approximately 80-100 years. We've gone through the unraveling of the 1920s and 30s, the collective response during World War II, the individualistic era of the 50s to early 80s, and now we're in the midst of another crisis and awakening. A key difference now is that individualism is no longer seen as a threat to the larger culture, but rather embraced at the highest levels. This shift was marked by the legitimization of rock music and Reagan's famous remark that "government is the problem." We're still in the unraveling phase, but the rapid political realignments we're seeing today, such as the election of Barack Obama and the current realignment of political parties, could be as significant as those during the Great Depression.
Generations and their roles in society: Generations, shaped by historical context, follow distinct patterns and react differently to major events based on age-related social roles.
Generations, defined as groups of people born during roughly the same period of life, play distinct roles in society and react differently to major events based on their age-related social roles. Generations are shaped by historical context, and their patterns often follow a sequential order. For instance, a profit archetype generation, such as the baby boomers, is born after a great crisis and tends to follow a similar trajectory. The discussion also highlighted how Pearl Harbor Sunday marked a significant turning point, with different age groups reacting differently based on their social roles. The generations affected included the silent generation, the GI generation, and the lost generation, each playing distinct roles during and after the war.
Generations and their relationship with history: Each generation is shaped by the historical context in which they grow up and, in turn, they shape history as they age. Generations that come of age during crises tend to be risk-averse and conformist, while those during awakening eras become moralistic leaders.
Generations follow distinct patterns in their relationship with history. Each generation is shaped by the historical context in which they grow up, and in turn, they shape history as they age. For instance, generations that come of age during an awakening era tend to become moralistic leaders in midlife and guide the country through crises as elder leaders. Conversely, generations that grow up during times of crisis are often risk-averse and conformist, seeking stability and security. The silent generation, for example, was heavily protected as children and came of age after a crisis, leading to a strong emphasis on conformity and a desire for security. These patterns repeat throughout history, with each generation contributing unique characteristics to the culture. It's important to note that these archetypes don't always manifest fully, but rather represent a cycle of causation where history shapes generations, and generations shape history.
Generations Shape Technology and Culture: Understanding how generations shape technology and culture can help us make accurate predictions about future generations and their impact on society.
While historical periods and technological advancements shape generations, it's essential to remember that the reverse is also true. Generations shape technology and culture to serve their unique needs and purposes. For instance, the profit generation archetype, which emerged during various awakenings throughout history, manifested differently in different time periods. However, the underlying human drivers, such as the quest for inner authenticity and liberation from authority, remained constant. Similarly, millennials shaped social media and technology to suit their needs, rather than the other way around. Understanding this dynamic can help us make accurate predictions about future generations and the role they will play in shaping our world.
Gender role differences widen during fourth turnings, narrow in awakenings: During awakenings, gender role differences narrow, while in fourth turnings, they widen. For example, Boomers reacted against exaggerated masculinity, leading to feminist movements, while millennials grow up with 'super mom' figures and gender role shifts.
According to generational theory, during fourth turnings, gender role differences tend to widen, while in awakenings, they narrow. For instance, the Boomer generation, growing up during an awakening, reacted negatively to the exaggerated masculinity of the previous generation, leading to significant changes in gender roles and the rise of second-wave feminism. Today, millennials are growing up in an environment shaped by the "super mom" figure, with women outnumbering men in education and earning potential. These shifts reflect the ongoing evolution of gender roles throughout different generational cycles.
The desired role of men in society is shifting again: Millennial women prefer assertive men, signaling a potential return to the hero archetype for men, which could last for several more decades.
The role of men in society, as desired by young women, is shifting once again. During the 1970s, young women sought sensitive, kinder men who were not overly focused on achievement. However, according to recent surveys, millennial women are now looking for men who are more assertive and ready to take charge. This shift suggests that we may be entering a new era where men will once again be expected to embody the hero archetype. This trend could last for several more decades, as fourth turnings typically last around 20 years. Despite the current calm in financial markets, it's important to remember that these turning points often come with significant crises and volatility. So, while we may not be halfway through the current fourth turning yet, we should be prepared for the intensity to increase in the years ahead.
Millennials will surprise us with their heroic actions during the crisis: Historical parallels suggest millennials will prove to be resilient and influential during the current crisis
Each generation moves through distinct phases of life, and the current crisis will bring out unique heroic qualities in the millennial generation, just as the GI generation did during their time. Initially, millennials were seen as soft and protected, but they will surprise us with their resilience and determination. This perspective is based on historical parallels, such as the shift during the 1930s when the GI generation was initially underestimated but ultimately proved to be powerful and influential. So, while it may be challenging to envision how millennials will rise to the occasion during this crisis, history shows that they will surprise us with their heroic actions.
Millennials Revolutionizing Public Infrastructure with Technology: Millennials are using technology to bypass and render obsolete outdated institutions, leading to more effective community empowerment and a better world, despite challenges from economic instability and global tensions.
We are currently living in a time of significant change, particularly in the outer world, as the millennial generation begins to revolutionize outdated public infrastructure using technology. This change is long overdue, as our public infrastructure has remained largely unchanged since the post-World War II era. Economic crisis and war are the primary catalysts for institutional change throughout history, and the current economic instability is expected to lead to significant political upheaval and conflict on a global scale. The millennial generation's use of technology to bypass and render obsolete outdated institutions will lead to more effective community empowerment and a better world. However, this change will not come without challenges, as economic instability and global tensions continue to rise.
A new era of instability and potential transformations: Historically, significant political and economic transformations occur during crisis generations, but outcomes can be positive or negative
We are entering a new era of instability and the rising tensions, combined with an economic downturn, could lead to the creation of new institutions to address the crises. This pattern, known as a Fourth Turning, has historically resulted in significant political and economic transformations. However, these transformations do not always turn out positively. For instance, the aftermath of World War II saw the creation of institutions like the United Nations, IMF, and World Bank, but societies that were defeated in the war, such as Germany, also experienced significant unrest and rebellion. It's important to remember that while the enduring impact of a crisis generation can be powerful, it can also lead to destruction and political upheaval.
Patterns of American history: The Fourth Turning: American history follows a recurring pattern of social cycles, including periods of high public mobilization and learning from the past. The destructiveness of the Civil War illustrates the potential for devastating conflict during these cycles.
American history, marked by both victories and devastating conflicts, follows a recurring pattern of social cycles. This pattern, known as the Fourth Turning, includes periods of high public mobilization and learning from the past. The speaker emphasizes the destructiveness of the Civil War, which saw unprecedented casualties, and suggests that if a weapon of mass destruction had existed during that time, it would have been used. He also acknowledges the uncertainty of exact timing for these cycles and the potential for external factors to disrupt them. To learn more about this theory and the speaker's work, readers can check out his column in Forbes or explore his online resources.
Updating Generational Theory for the Present Day: Neil Howe is updating his seminal works on generational theory to address current questions about the start of the Fourth Turning, the aging of generations, and more.
Neil Howe, the author of "Generations" and "The Fourth Turning," is working on an updated version of these generational theory books, which will bring the information up to the present day. These books, published in 1991 and 1997 respectively, are fundamental to understanding the different generations and their place in history. Keep an eye out for the new version within the next year, as Howe plans to address current questions about the start of the Fourth Turning, the aging of generations, and more. To learn more about Neil Howe and his work, check out his website, lifecourse.com, and read his books, available on Amazon.com and in bookstores. For more resources on this topic, visit aom.is/howe. Stay tuned for the Art of Manliness Podcast for more insightful discussions.
