Podcast Summary
Decadence in Rich Societies: Decadence, marked by stagnation and lack of innovation, is a normal phenomenon for rich societies. It can manifest in various ways, but recognizing it can help us fight back against it.
Successful societies often enter periods of decadence marked by stagnation, drift, repetition, and boredom, even if it may not appear that way on the surface. Decadence is not limited to historical examples like the Roman Empire or the Ottoman Empire, but is a normal phenomenon for any rich society. Once a society reaches a high level of wealth and civilizational development, it may stop focusing on the future and instead focus on maintaining what it has, leading to a lack of innovation and risk-taking. This can manifest in various ways, such as fewer business startups, repetitive clothing styles, and calcified political institutions. Decadence is not an inevitable fate, but it is a common historical pattern. Understanding this phenomenon can help us recognize and potentially fight back against it in our own society.
Decadence and Economic Stagnation in Western Societies: Western societies have experienced economic stagnation for decades, marked by slow growth and large peacetime deficits, which may be a result of decadence and a lack of motivation for change.
Successful societies, including America and the Western world, can become decadent as they age and lose the motivations for change. This decadence can manifest in various ways, including economic stagnation. Economists argue that despite appearances of technological innovation and progress, the world has experienced economic stagnation for the past 40 to 50 years. This is evident in the deceleration of growth, with rare instances of 4% or 5% growth and more common rates of 1.5% to 2%. Additionally, fiscal policy has changed dramatically, with Western governments, including the US, running immense peacetime deficits to support low growth rates. These deficits contrast with earlier eras when such spending was not necessary to achieve higher growth rates. The pandemic may be a significant jolt to this trajectory, but it remains to be seen whether it will lead to meaningful change.
The pace of growth has slowed and essentials have become more expensive: Despite technological advancements and economic growth, many people feel economically stagnant due to rising costs of essentials and uneven distribution of growth
While there have been advancements in technology and economic growth, the pace of growth has slowed down and the cost of certain essentials like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly. This means that while people may have access to more consumer goods and services than before, they may not be experiencing the same level of economic mobility and improvement in living standards as their parents and grandparents did. The argument is not that growth has stopped entirely, but rather that it has become less evenly distributed and focused more on certain sectors, leaving many people feeling economically stagnant. The comparison of Al Bundy's house from the 1950s to today illustrates this point, as the cost of housing has risen dramatically while wages have not kept pace. Additionally, the argument is made that innovation has not been as transformative as it once was, with most advancements occurring in areas like digital technology and communications, rather than in industries that directly impact people's living standards.
Despite technological advancements, societal transformation has been slow and mono-dimensional: While technology has made impressive strides, societal transformation beyond tech sector remains limited
Despite the significant technological advancements in the last few decades, particularly in the tech sector, society as a whole has not seen the revolutionary changes that were once expected. This is evident in areas such as energy production, transportation, and healthcare, where progress has been slow and mono-dimensional. The innovations we have seen, while impressive, have not moved the needle significantly in the grand scheme of things. The challenge lies in taking the progress made in technology and transforming other sectors, with examples of failed attempts including Theranos and WeWork. Additionally, the innovations of the past 40 years, while game changing, are not as transformative as those of the past, such as electricity and indoor plumbing. This is a period where there is still a lot of impressive research going on, but the results have yet to match the hype. As Mark Stein put it, if a man from the late 19th century were to visit us in the 21st, he might be underwhelmed by the lack of significant societal transformation beyond technology.
Living in the Shadow of the Past: The Repetition of Fashion, Technology, and Pop Culture: Despite advancements in technology and time, fashion, music, and art continue to be influenced by the past, with styles and trends repeating from the 1990s and earlier.
There has been a noticeable repetition in fashion, technology, and pop culture over the last few decades. The speaker notes that there hasn't been a significant fashion turnover since the 1990s, and the same styles from 20 years ago are still popular among young people. Additionally, the speaker observes that changes in technology have also slowed down, and there hasn't been a major musical or artistic innovation since the rise of rap and hip hop in the late 1980s. The speaker suggests that we are still living inside baby boomer pop culture, with much of our current pop culture being inspired by the period between World War II and the 1970s. The speaker also notes that there has been a trend towards repetition in other areas of culture, such as films and art. Overall, the speaker sees this repetition as a sign of a certain kind of stuckness and lack of creativity, although they also acknowledge that there are benefits to reworking and playing with the classics.
Institutions in Decadence and Stagnation: Political institutions are less trustworthy and dysfunctional due to an outdated constitutional structure, welfare state, and partisan polarization, making reform difficult. Consolidation and monopoly power hinder innovation in sectors like tech and education.
Decadence and stagnation can be found in various areas, including the economy, culture, and institutions. Regarding institutions, political institutions have become less trustworthy and dysfunctional due to a combination of an outdated constitutional structure, a welfare state, and partisan polarization. This has resulted in a system where policy is mostly made under emergency conditions and reform is nearly impossible. Additionally, in sectors like Silicon Valley and higher education, consolidation and monopoly power have taken hold, making it difficult for new entities to disrupt established systems. The Star Wars franchise, as an example from culture, illustrates this concept as well, with the original movies being creative pastiches and the prequels and subsequent Disney productions playing it safe and rehashing old beats.
Fewer new businesses and less mobility leading to complex realities: The decline in new businesses and mobility is impacting community building and engagement, potentially leading to social and economic decay
Despite the common perception of our era as one of endless entrepreneurship and mobility, the reality is more complex. Economically, there are fewer new businesses opening and old ones closing than in the past, making it harder for entrepreneurs to thrive. Socially, people are less likely to move in search of work or new opportunities, leading to stagnation in some communities. This trend is influenced by various structural factors, including government policies and the increasing prevalence of dual-income families. The result is a decrease in community building and engagement, which can lead to social and economic decay in some areas. Ultimately, while there are benefits to staying put and putting down roots, the lack of mobility and entrepreneurship can have negative consequences for individuals and society as a whole.
Decline in Community Building and Family Size in Modern Societies: Two-income economy and societal pressures are contributing to less time and space for community building and smaller family sizes. Economic factors and cultural shifts are causing decreasing fertility rates.
The pandemic and economic trends are contributing to a decline in community building and family size in modern societies. The neighborhoods of the past where children played freely were possible due to parents being at home. However, in a two-income economy, there's less time and space for community building. Additionally, fertility rates are decreasing globally, including in the US, due to economic factors and cultural shifts. Despite people expressing a desire for larger families, the costs of basic necessities and societal pressures against taking risks are deterring individuals from having more children. The pandemic has further impacted these trends, with fewer people dating, getting married, and having sex. It remains to be seen if there will be a post-pandemic rebound in these areas.
Fighting decadence through personal actions and systemic change: Focus on personal actions and community initiatives to bring about change, rather than waiting for widespread devastation. Individuals can start businesses, families, or even garden during a crisis, while political figures can work towards systemic change.
While it's understandable to desire excitement and change during times of economic anxiety and decadence, most apocalypses come with greater hardships than the current state. Instead, we should aim for a renaissance without the dark age, focusing on personal and community actions to bring about change. The war against decadence begins at home or in one's community, and individuals can strike a blow against it through starting a business, starting a family, or even gardening during a pandemic. However, for those in politics, there's still hope for systemic change through talented political figures who can effectively rebuild or refound a system. Ultimately, the key is to recognize that change starts with individual actions and that even in times of crisis, there's an opportunity to transform society without the need for widespread devastation.
Challenges of Decadence: Pushing Back Against Soft Distractions: To counteract decadence, individuals must prioritize their values and consciously resist distractions, supporting local businesses and engaging with thought-provoking content.
Decadence, or the gradual decline of moral and cultural values, presents a significant challenge for individuals and society as a whole. According to Ross Douthat, author of "The Decadence Society," decadence is not about persecution or external forces preventing us from living our values. Instead, it's about the soft, easy distractions that make it simple to neglect our responsibilities and commitments. This can manifest in various aspects of life, including religion, family, and entrepreneurship. To counteract decadence, individuals must actively push back and make a conscious effort to prioritize their values, even when it's easier to give in to distractions. Support local businesses, read Douthat's column in the New York Times, or buy his book, "The Decadence Society," to learn more about this concept. Remember, as Douthat puts it, "push harder" against the softness of decadence.
