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    #614 - Nicholas Eberstadt - Why Do Millions of Men Not Want to Work?

    enApril 13, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Millions of Men Unemployed and Disconnected from the WorkforceMillions of men between 25-54 face joblessness, affecting mental health, women as breadwinners, and societal implications. Reasons include mental health, substance abuse, and societal disconnect.

      There are over 7 million men between the ages of 25 and 54, who are neither working nor looking for work in the United States. This group, often overlooked in employment statistics, is made up of various demographics, including high school dropouts, college graduates, and individuals of different ethnicities. Marital status also plays a role, with unmarried men being more likely to be part of this group. The reasons for their joblessness are complex and include mental health issues, substance abuse, and a disconnect from society. This mass joblessness has significant repercussions, including the impact on mental health, the role of women as breadwinners, and the overall societal implications. Understanding this issue is crucial for addressing the challenges faced by these men and for creating policies that support their reintegration into the workforce.

    • 7 million men in US not actively looking for work7 million men in US not working, trend since 60s, unmarried, foreign-born, single-parent households, reasons complex, labor force participation rate declining, married African Americans less likely, education, family structure, societal expectations, economic factors, personal circumstances, hidden catastrophe, consequences for individuals, families, society

      There is a significant cohort of 7 million men in the US who are not actively looking for work. This trend, which has been gradual since the mid-1960s, is particularly pronounced among unmarried men, foreign-born men, and those from single-parent households. The reasons for this phenomenon are complex and multifaceted, including societal expectations, economic factors, and personal circumstances. The labor force participation rate for this group has been declining consistently since the end of the Second World War, with men retreating from the workforce at a rate of around 0.1% per month. The Census Bureau's data also reveals that married African American men are less likely to be in the labor force than unmarried white American men. However, marriage seems to erase some of the ethnic disadvantage. Other factors, such as education level and family structure, also play a role. The causes of this trend are not fully understood, but it is clear that it is a hidden catastrophe with far-reaching consequences for individuals, families, and society as a whole.

    • Factors beyond economic and structural changes impact labor shortagePersonal circumstances, retirement, and a current peacetime labor shortage contribute to the complex labor market dynamic

      The rise of the "ruler shape" labor market dynamic cannot be fully explained by economic and structural technological changes or the shift in demand for less skilled labor. Other factors such as personal circumstances, like marriage status and age, play a significant role. Additionally, there is a current peacetime labor shortage with millions of unfilled jobs, indicating that the issue is not solely due to a lack of work. The retirement of older workers, particularly those over 55, has also contributed to the labor shortage. The complexities of this issue go beyond simple received wisdom and require a more nuanced understanding.

    • Men on Government Benefits: An Alternative Income SourceMany men in the US not working or in education live off family support and disability benefits, allowing them to forgo employment and spend over 2000 hours a year on screens, with some reporting daily pain medication use

      A significant portion of the 7 million men not working or in education in the US are living with family or receiving disability benefits, which together help them cover their living expenses. These benefits, derived from various government programs, have become an alternative income source for many. While these benefits are not substantial on their own, they allow recipients to forgo employment. These men report spending a significant amount of time watching screens, amounting to around 2000 hours a year, which could be considered a full-time job. Unfortunately, a large number of these men also reported taking pain medication daily. It's important to note that these findings are based on self-reported data and should be taken with caution. However, they do suggest a concerning trend.

    • 16 million unemployed men in US spend $2k/yr on screen time, half take pain meds, many are ex-felons16 million unemployed men in US face barriers to employment due to criminal records, lack of data makes it unclear how much discrimination plays a role, potential solutions like 'ban the box' policy have uncertain effectiveness

      There are approximately 16 million men in the United States who are not working and spend around $2,000 per year on screen time. Among this group, about half take daily pain medication and a significant number are former felons. Estimates suggest that one in seven adult men in the US has a criminal record, making it a major contributing factor to their unemployment. However, due to the lack of comprehensive data, it's unclear how much of their unemployment is due to discrimination against their criminal records. Without this information, efforts to address the issue may be misguided. The discussion also touched upon the limitations of current data and the importance of gathering more information to create evidence-based programs. Employers' practices regarding hiring ex-felons, such as the "ban the box" policy, were also mentioned as potential solutions but the effectiveness of these solutions remains uncertain due to the lack of data.

    • The overlooked issue of 7 million men's employment and societal integrationExploring interventions like support groups, training programs, and addressing psychological health needs can help 7 million men reconnect with society and regain their human potential despite their criminal records and psychological challenges.

      We are facing a significant issue related to the employment and societal integration of approximately 7 million prime-working-age men in the United States, who are not currently contributing to the workforce due to various reasons, including criminal records and psychological challenges. This group, often overlooked by academia and media, experiences misery despite having a standard of living that would have been considered wealthy in the past. The lack of resources or material wealth does not explain their situation; rather, it's the disconnection from society and work that leads to a miserable existence. The historical role of men as providers being flipped into a position of dependence can have profound psychological consequences. It's crucial to address this issue by exploring potential interventions, such as support groups, training programs, and addressing psychological health needs. By understanding and addressing the root causes, we can help these men reconnect with society and regain their human potential.

    • UBI's Long-Term Effects on Individuals and SocietyUBI raises concerns of dependency, lack of purpose, and misuse of time, potentially creating a habit of not working and negatively impacting the labor market.

      The pandemic-induced experiment with Universal Basic Income (UBI) raised concerns about its potential long-term effects on individuals and society. UBI, which provides a regular income to all citizens regardless of employment status, was seen as a solution to economic instability during the pandemic. However, critics argue that it could lead to dependency, lack of purpose, and misuse of time. With more people receiving benefits than those unemployed, there's a risk of creating a habit of not working, which could have negative consequences for both individuals and the labor market. The discussion also touched upon the importance of understanding the distinction between poverty and misery, and the role of values in addressing social issues. Ultimately, the experiment served as a reminder of the need for a balanced approach to social policy that considers both material and non-material needs.

    • Young Men Retreating from Relationships and FriendshipsResearch shows a decrease in young men seeking relationships, potentially due to societal shifts and technology, with implications for future generations.

      We're living in a time where societal norms and expectations are shifting dramatically, particularly for young men. The speaker discusses how employment statistics are still influenced by the Great Depression, but he's more concerned with the broader dynamic of men retreating from relationships and friendships. He points to research showing that a smaller percentage of young men are looking for relationships compared to just a few years ago. The speaker suggests that this could be due to a weakening of the desire for family and children being hard-wired into our DNA, but rather something that is developed through use and observation. He also mentions the influence of technology and the possibility that it may be contributing to this trend. Overall, it seems that we're witnessing a significant shift in societal norms and expectations, particularly for young men, and it's important to understand the underlying causes and implications of this change.

    • Men's disconnection from workforce and societyTo reverse men's disconnection from the workforce and society, a shift in values, mindset, and empathy is needed, along with finding ways to help them reconnect with their communities and overcome distractions.

      The current societal trend of men exiting the workforce and experiencing a lack of meaning and purpose in their lives is a significant concern, not just economically, but also socially and culturally. This trend, which has been ongoing for over 50 years, is unlikely to be reversed by structural changes alone. Instead, a shift in values, mindset, and empathy towards those affected is necessary. The widespread use of highly distracting devices and the resulting atomization of society pose challenges to re-engaging individuals with their communities and finding meaning outside of themselves. The potential for a societal "revolution" or awakening may be necessary to help open people's minds and reconnect them with humanity and a sense of purpose. Additionally, the high rates of male sexlessness and lack of outlets for frustration suggest that men are being sedated by screens, porn, and other forms of media, making it more difficult for them to engage with the world around them. Ultimately, finding ways to help men reconnect with their communities, find meaning and purpose, and overcome their distractions will be essential for addressing this societal trend.

    • Men Without Work: A Significant Economic and Moral CostThe absence of predominantly white, American men from the workforce results in slower growth, larger income gaps, increased welfare dependence, and potential public debt, as well as social consequences like fragile families and decreased trust in institutions.

      There is a significant group of predominantly white, American men who are outside of the workforce, and this situation poses a substantial economic and moral cost to society. This trend is unlikely to be addressed through organized efforts or campaigns from Washington, but rather may spread spontaneously as people recognize the benefits of employment and productivity. The economic consequences include slower growth, larger income and wealth gaps, increased welfare dependence, and potentially more public debt. Furthermore, the social impact can lead to fragile families and decreased trust in social institutions. To stay updated on this issue, one can search for Nicholas Eberstadt and his work, including his book "Men Without Work." The magnitude of this issue is both economically and morally concerning, and it is crucial for more people to engage in discussions about it.

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    Instagram - @timdoerksen
    Tommy
    Instagram - @tommy_show1.0

    EP 146: Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities with Calum Chace

    EP 146: Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities with Calum Chace

    “Optimism, like pessimism, is a bias, and to be avoided. But summoning the determination to rise to a challenge and succeed is a virtue.” - Calum Chace

    Today’s guest argues that in the course of this century, the exponential growth in the capability of AI is likely to bring about two "singularities" - points at which conditions are so extreme that the normal rules break down.

    The first is the economic singularity, when machine skill reaches a level that renders many of us unemployable and requires an overhaul of our current economic and social systems.

    The second is the technological singularity, when machine intelligence reaches and then surpasses the cognitive abilities of an adult human, relegating us to the second smartest species on the planet.

    These singularities will present huge challenges, but this he argues that we can meet these challenges and overcome them. If we do, the rewards could be almost unimaginable.

    Artificial intelligence can turn out to be the best thing ever to happen to humanity, making our future wonderful almost beyond imagination. But only if we address head-on the challenges that it will raise.

    We welcome expert on artificial intelligence, and its likely future impact on society and bestselling author of many books including the focus of today’s show “Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities”, Calum Chace, welcome to the show

    We discuss:

    • The Terminology
    • Technological Singularity
    • Economic Singularity
    • Exponential Change
    • Artificial General Intelligence
    • The AI race
    • Technological Joblessness
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Impact on Society
    • What is being done
    • The Gods and the Useless
    • Transhumanism
    • Augmented Humanity
    • Centaurs
    • Privacy Concerns

    More about Calum here;

    http://www.pandoras-brain.com/

    and the book here:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0815368534/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i6

    Bryan Talebi, founder and CEO of Ahura AI, shares how AI is being used to up-skill and re-skill workers being displaced by automation

    Bryan Talebi, founder and CEO of Ahura AI, shares how AI is being used to up-skill and re-skill workers being displaced by automation

    Bryan Talebi learned the value of education after fleeing Iran and living in a Turkish refugee camp. He worked for NASA at age 16 and, after helping lead many successful startups, started Ahura to disrupt the education system "which hasn't changed in 150 years". Bryan realized the millions of workers being displaced by automation need a way to more rapidly prepare for careers in the labor market of the future.

    Listen and learn...

    1. What skills are required to succeed in the new labor market
    2. What impact a single robot can have on an entire factory of skilled laborers
    3. How biometric data can be used to optimize the learning process
    4. What employers are doing to up-skill rather than replace current employees
    5. Why "AQ" is replacing IQ and EQ as the way to find 10x talent

    Contact Bryan and Ahura AI for more information:

    • www.ahuraai.com
    • bryan@ahuraai.com
    • @bryantalebi3D

    The Economist Who Believes AI Will Be Great for the Middle Class

    The Economist Who Believes AI Will Be Great for the Middle Class

    AI is an incredibly exciting space, provoking both great wonder and fear. One of the big worries obviously is: What will happen to everyone's job? Will it make more people's livelihoods obsolete, causing even greater inequality than we have now? On this episode, we speak with an economist who argues that this concern is not just misplaced, but exactly wrong. MIT's David Autor, famous for his work on the China shock, contends that the last 40 years of advances in computer technology have been a major driver of inequality, but AI should be seen as an entirely different paradigm. He argues that human work, aided by AI, will remove the premium captured by extremely high-paid, experienced professionals (like doctors or top lawyers) as their capabilities become more diffuse. He also discusses what policy choices the government should be making to improve the odds that AI will prove societally beneficial.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.