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    Elizabeth Kolbert: We have locked in centuries of climate change

    enJanuary 10, 2017

    Podcast Summary

    • Discovering Seamless Money Transactions and Travel Experiences with Wise and ViatorExplore Wise for hassle-free international money transactions and Viator for curated travel experiences, while being mindful of the urgent need to address climate change

      Wise is a financial service that enables seamless money transactions in different currencies, offering real-time exchange rates and no hidden fees. It's perfect for sending money abroad or traveling internationally without dealing with airport exchange desks. Meanwhile, Viator is a platform for booking guided tours and travel experiences, offering over 300,000 options and free cancellation with 24/7 customer support. On a more serious note, during the podcast, the importance of addressing climate change was emphasized. We're currently causing the sixth extinction event in Earth's history, and the consequences are irreversible. Renowned journalist Elizabeth Kolbert provides clear explanations about the science behind climate change and its impact on our planet. It's a call to action for all of us to take steps towards mitigating the damage and ensuring a livable future for future generations. Remember to rate, subscribe, and share the podcast, and check out The Weeds for in-depth discussions on American public policy.

    • The long-term consequences of climate change are already being determined by our current actionsClimate change may not be immediately apparent, but its long-term effects are alarming and will impact future generations

      Learning from this conversation with Elizabeth Kolbert is that the impact of climate change may not always be immediately apparent, but it carries long-term consequences that are already being determined by our current actions. Kolbert, who is known for her reporting on climate change and other environmental issues, explained how she became interested in the topic during the early 2000s when the Bush administration downplayed the importance of climate change. She learned that the scientific consensus on the issue was not in debate, and she felt it was important for people to know. In her recent piece, Kolbert went to Greenland to witness the melting glaciers firsthand. She noted that the climate operates on a time delay, and the effects of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere today won't be fully felt until future generations reach middle age. This disconnect between the present and future climate can make it difficult for people to grasp the urgency of the issue. Despite the gradual nature of the changes, climate scientists are alarmed, and Kolbert continues to write about the topic to help bridge the gap between what we experience now and what's to come.

    • The Earth's climate balance and greenhouse effectThe Earth's climate is determined by the balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat. Greenhouse gases trap heat, disrupting this balance and causing global temperatures to rise.

      The Earth's climate is determined by the balance between the energy it receives from the sun and the energy it radiates back into space. This balance is crucial for maintaining the Earth's temperature. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat near the Earth's surface, disrupting this balance and leading to an increase in global temperatures. This is a well-established scientific fact, and the greenhouse effect can be observed in laboratory experiments. The debate around climate change is not about the existence of this effect, but rather the extent to which human activities are contributing to it. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that has been crucial for regulating the Earth's climate throughout history, but human activities are adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate. Understanding this fundamental concept is essential for addressing the challenges of climate change.

    • Understanding the Effects of Greenhouse Gases on ClimateGreenhouse gases have been causing the Earth to warm since the late 1800s, with the most pronounced effects being seen in areas where ice is melting, like the poles, due to the large amount of energy required to melt ice and the resulting phase shift. Delayed action in the 1960s and 1970s has led to serious consequences.

      The release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, starting in the late 1800s, was predicted to make the planet warmer. However, the full impact was not immediately understood due to complications like the saturation of the atmosphere and the overestimation of emissions dissolving in the oceans. The effects of this warming have been most pronounced in areas where ice is melting, such as the poles, due to the large amount of energy required to melt ice and the resulting phase shift. These areas are experiencing the most acute effects of climate change, serving as a warning of what the future may hold if we continue to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases. This understanding was already recognized in the 1960s and 1970s, but action was delayed, and we are now seeing the serious consequences.

    • Melting Ice Caps Impacting Climate and People's LivesThe melting of polar ice caps is leading to increased heat absorption, affecting Arctic communities and their traditional practices, and requiring practical solutions for adaptation and sustainable growth.

      The melting of polar ice caps is significantly impacting the Earth's climate system. Ice is extremely reflective, and its melting into open water, which is very absorbent, is leading to a dramatic increase in heat absorption. This change has major consequences for people living in the Arctic, who are experiencing significant shifts in their way of life as a result. For example, the disappearance of sea ice is making it impossible for communities that relied on sledding and seal hunting to continue their traditional practices. The climate crisis is having a real and immediate impact on people's lives, and it's important for us all to understand the significance of this shift and take action to mitigate its effects. Additionally, there are practical solutions available to help individuals and businesses adapt to these changes, such as the use of platforms like Shopify for selling goods and services, and apps like Wise for managing money in different currencies. These tools can help us navigate the complexities of a changing world and support sustainable growth.

    • Unprecedented Climate Change and Potential InstabilityClimate change at current rates could lead to instability and disruption, putting livelihoods at risk, and may require geoengineering solutions with their own challenges and risks. Sustainable solutions are crucial.

      While people have adapted to climate changes throughout history, the current rate of climate change is unprecedented and could lead to significant instability and disruption for millions of people. The last 10,000 years have been remarkably stable climate-wise, allowing for the development of civilization. However, we are now pushing the climate into potential instability and a different regime, which could lead to economic and social upheaval. For instance, parts of the world that are currently breadbaskets for entire regions may see their agricultural productivity shift, putting the livelihoods of billions of people at risk. Geoengineering solutions, such as blasting sulfates into space or putting up mirrors to reflect sunlight, may seem easier than changing energy use, but they come with their own challenges and risks. Ultimately, it's crucial to acknowledge the potential consequences of climate change and work towards sustainable solutions. To learn more about how Wyze can help you make a positive impact on the environment, download the app or visit wyze.com.

    • Geoengineering's complexities and potential regional disruptionsGeoengineering's limitations and focusing on renewable energy and reducing emissions is a more sustainable approach.

      Geoengineering the planet to counteract the effects of climate change is a complex issue with potential unintended consequences. One proposed solution, adding sulfates to the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, could lead to regional climate disruptions, such as shutting down the monsoon in parts of Asia, and require constant, increasing inputs to offset CO2 emissions. Furthermore, considering the vast scale and long-term implications of climate change, it's crucial to acknowledge the limitations of human cognitive abilities to think on geologic time scales and the belief in continuous growth and improvement may hinder effective action. Instead, focusing on transitioning to renewable energy sources and reducing emissions is a more sustainable and less risky approach.

    • The fragility of human civilization throughout historyUnderstanding the historical reality of civilization's rise and fall can help us appreciate the fragility of our progress and motivate us to preserve it

      Human civilization has experienced more unpleasant moments than pleasant ones throughout history. We live in an unusual time with advanced technologies and a rapidly growing population, but this moment is also precarious. Our tendency to project the belief that our best days are yet to come overlooks the reality that civilizations have fallen before us. If we consider the history of Earth over a million-year timescale, the rise and fall of human civilization would not seem unusual. The future is not guaranteed, and understanding this can help us appreciate the fragility of our progress. Americans, as a relatively young country, may lack the historical perspective to fully grasp this. In his Pulitzer Prize-winning book, "The 6th Extinction," Elizabeth Kolbert emphasizes that changes can be irreversible and that even seemingly enduring aspects of the world can be fragile in the face of them.

    • Human activities are causing mass extinction at an unprecedented rateHuman actions like deforestation, species translocation, and disease spread are causing around a quarter of all mammal species to be endangered, potentially cutting off evolutionary pathways and impacting future biospheres.

      Human activities are driving extinction rates at a level not seen in 66 million years, potentially denuding the planet on a scale similar to the end Cretaceous extinction. While it's estimated that there are roughly 1.5 million catalogued species on Earth, most of life remains unknown, particularly microbial and invertebrate life. Extinction rates can be measured by looking at well-catalogued groups like mammals, where around 5,000 species are believed to exist. Currently, about a quarter of all mammal species are considered endangered. Extinction should be a rare event, happening more slowly than speciation. However, human actions such as deforestation, species translocation, and disease spread are cutting off evolutionary pathways and severing branches of life, with unknown consequences for future biospheres.

    • Unprecedented rates of extinction threaten iconic speciesWe must recognize the gravity of the extinction crisis and take action to mitigate its causes and preserve biodiversity.

      We are currently experiencing unprecedented rates of extinction, with iconic species like giraffes and elephants at risk. This is a result of various factors, including climate change, habitat loss, and disease. Human beings have the ability to adapt to these changes, but many other species do not. The loss of biodiversity is an irreversible act of violence on the planet, and it's important to recognize the gravity of this situation. While we may focus on political issues like Donald Trump's tweets, the loss of species is a pressing issue with long-term consequences. Healthcare and economics also have irreversible dimensions, but the extinction of species is a unique and significant loss that should not be overlooked. It's crucial that we pay attention to this issue and take action to mitigate the causes of extinction and preserve the diversity of life on Earth.

    • Climate change has irreversible consequencesClimate change denial could lead to 4 degrees Celsius warming, irreversible damage, and devastating consequences

      While some environmental damages can be reversed or minimized, climate change is a cumulative problem with irreversible consequences. Donald Trump's denial of climate change will result in more warming and potentially irreversible damage such as sea level rise. The Paris Climate Accord, if fully implemented, could have mitigated some of this warming, but with the US not participating, we are on track for significant warming of nearly 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) within the next century. This warming will have devastating consequences, including the potential flooding of coastal cities, which cannot be reversed on a human timescale.

    • A fundamental shift in climate with severe consequencesThe current global warming trend is a significant shift in climate with potential for massive population relocation and uninhabitable conditions in certain areas, and we're already locked in centuries of change

      The current global warming trend, with temperatures approaching the 6 degree Fahrenheit mark, is significantly more than a simple increase or decrease in day-to-day weather. It's a fundamental shift in climate that could have severe consequences, such as the need for massive population relocation due to uninhabitable conditions in certain areas. The last ice age, when Manhattan was covered in ice, provides a stark reminder of how drastically different the climate can be. Average global temperatures are not something to be taken lightly, as they determine where we can live and thrive. The climate is not static; it's constantly changing, and we're currently pouring CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to a perpetually changing climate. It's not a matter of just moving to a new location and everything being okay. The next stable equilibrium point is unknown, and we've already locked in centuries of change, such as sea level rise. The Paris Accords aim to limit global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, but given current trends, we're on track for more. This shift in climate is not a linear process, but a phase change to a new, potentially uninhabitable, equilibrium.

    • Judgment of Future GenerationsWe make decisions now that will impact future generations for centuries. Past societies have been judged harshly for their actions. Individuals and companies with critical information about climate change have a role to play. A surprising figure could lead on climate change, but business incentives may conflict.

      We are currently living in a time that future generations might judge harshly due to our handling of climate change and the environment. The speaker emphasizes that we are making decisions now that will impact future generations for centuries to come. He uses historical examples of past societies being judged harshly for their actions and warns that the same could happen to us if we don't take meaningful action to address climate change. The speaker also mentions the role of individuals and companies, like Exxon, who have access to critical information about the issue but may not be taking sufficient action to address it. The speaker raises the possibility of a "Nixon goes to China" moment, where a surprising figure, such as the CEO of a fossil fuel company, takes a leadership role in addressing climate change. However, the speaker also acknowledges that these individuals and companies have business incentives that may conflict with taking bold action on the issue. The speaker references research from Harvard and MIT to support his perspective.

    • ExxonMobil and US Congress' Role in Climate DenialExxonMobil funded climate misinformation until 2014, and the US Congress, particularly Republicans, have been major climate deniers, despite evidence of climate change. This trend is rooted in historical accident, not fact or science.

      ExxonMobil continued to fund climate misinformation as recently as 2014, and the US Congress, specifically Republican leadership, is a major source of climate denial. The Republican Party's stance on climate change denial is not a global phenomenon, and it's unclear why this ideology is deeply rooted in the US conservative politics. The GOP's decision to politicize climate change is not a factual or scientific issue, but a historical accident. This trend was not always the case, as evidenced by John McCain's efforts to address climate change in the early 2000s. The current political climate, with many climate deniers in positions of power, is concerning for those hoping for meaningful action on climate change.

    • Political landscape and climate changeFocus on technological innovations, clean energy investments, and smart public policy to overcome climate change challenges, despite the current political climate.

      The political landscape surrounding climate change and environmental issues has been heavily influenced by economic interests, particularly those tied to the fossil fuel industry. This has led to a polarization of the issue, with acceptance of scientific consensus becoming a litmus test for conservatives. However, the speaker expresses little hope for the incoming administration to address these issues in a responsible way. Instead, they suggest focusing on technological innovations and major investments in clean energy as the key to overcoming the challenges we face. The speaker also highlights the importance of smart public policy in driving progress and reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. Despite the current political climate, the speaker remains optimistic about the potential for technology to outpace our problems and pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable future.

    • Addressing climate change through food choicesReducing beef consumption can help decrease greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, but ethical dilemmas arise in finding a balance between personal choices, ethical considerations, and global impact.

      Addressing climate change requires a multi-faceted approach. While we focus on reducing our carbon emissions from transportation and energy production, we also need to consider the impact of our food choices. Agriculture, particularly meat production, contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The methane produced by livestock, especially cattle, is particularly problematic. However, living a sustainable life is not without ethical dilemmas. For instance, reducing animal suffering might lead us to consume more beef due to its longer production cycle. The challenge lies in finding a balance between personal choices, ethical considerations, and the complexities of a globally interconnected world. Ultimately, every individual's actions contribute to the issue, and it can feel overwhelming to make the "right" choices. Yet, small steps like reducing beef consumption can make a difference.

    • Ethical choices in personal life vs systemic solutionsIndividual actions won't solve complex issues like climate change. We need collective action and policy changes for systemic solutions.

      While individuals can make ethical choices in their personal lives, the complexities of issues like climate change require systemic solutions through public policy and pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes. Al Gore's lifestyle choices, for instance, raise ethical questions, but individual actions alone won't solve these problems. Instead, we need collective action and policy changes to minimize future damage. However, ethical questions remain relevant, even if they don't provide a complete solution. The speaker acknowledges that they have changed their personal habits due to the ethical considerations raised by these issues.

    • Recommended Books to Understand Our Connection to the Natural WorldReading books like 'The Sixth Extinction,' 'Desert Solitaire,' 'Silent Spring,' 'The Forest Unseen,' and 'The End of Nature' can broaden our perspective on environmental issues and inspire us to consider our impact on the natural world.

      Each person contributes to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to their carbon emissions, and it's a painful reality that we all face as part of modern society. However, it's essential to stay informed and inspired by reading books that broaden our perspective on environmental issues and our relationship to the natural world. During their conversation, Elizabeth Kolbert recommended several books that have made a significant impact on her thinking. These include "The Sixth Extinction," "Desert Solitaire" by Edward Abbey, "Silent Spring" by Rachel Carson, "The Forest Unseen," and "The End of Nature" by Bill McKibben. These books offer timely and thought-provoking insights into the natural world and our role in shaping it. "Desert Solitaire" and "Silent Spring" are classics that have stood the test of time, while "The Forest Unseen" and "The End of Nature" provide more recent perspectives. Reading these books can help us better understand our connection to the natural world and the impact of human actions on it. In conclusion, it's crucial to acknowledge our role in environmental issues and seek knowledge and inspiration from books that challenge us to think differently about our relationship to the natural world. The recommendations provided by Elizabeth Kolbert offer an excellent starting point for anyone interested in deepening their understanding of these important topics.

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    “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Rogé Karma and Jeff Geld; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld.

    #403 - Richard Betts - Why Is Climate Science So Disputed?

    #403 - Richard Betts - Why Is Climate Science So Disputed?
    Richard Betts MBE is Head of the Climate Impacts strategic area at the MET Office, the lead author on several reports from the IPCC and a Professor at the University of Exeter. There are few areas of science as contested as the climate. I wanted to speak to someone who has been researching this area for more than 3 decades to discover out why there is so much disagreement over fundamental questions like whether the earth's warming is actually caused by humans? Can we stop it? How accurate are climate models? Should we switch to renewables? What does Richard think of Extinction Rebellion? How much are China to blame? And much more... Sponsors: Join the Modern Wisdom Community to connect with me & other listeners - https://modernwisdom.locals.com/ Get 20% discount on the highest quality CBD Products from Pure Sport at https://bit.ly/cbdwisdom (use code: MW20) Reclaim your fitness and book a Free Consultation Call with ActiveLifeRX at http://bit.ly/rxwisdom Extra Stuff: Follow Richard on Twitter - https://twitter.com/richardabetts  Get my free Reading List of 100 books to read before you die → https://chriswillx.com/books/ To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom - Get in touch. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices