Podcast Summary
Israeli holding patterns: Israel faces multiple challenges on various fronts, causing holding patterns that delay progress and create uncertainty, but Israel may be winning the war in Gaza and is close to delivering a fatal blow to Hamas
Israel is currently facing multiple challenges on various fronts, both kinetically and non-kinetically, including in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran itself, as well as in the cyber realm and on university campuses. Israelis are in a holding pattern, waiting for responses or developments from Iran, Hezbollah, and the United States, while also dealing with ongoing issues in Gaza. This situation feels vulnerable and uncertain, yet familiar, as Israel has experienced several holding patterns since October 2021, some of which were imposed by the United States. Despite these challenges, Israel may be winning the war in Gaza and is close to delivering a fatal blow to Hamas. However, the holding patterns have also caused setbacks and delays, keeping Israel from achieving its goals.
Israeli military gains against Hamas and Hezbollah: The Israeli military has been making strategic gains against Hamas and Hezbollah through targeted assassinations and destruction of tunnels, but the extent of their progress is debated.
The Israeli military, or IDF, has been making strategic gains against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, thinning out their senior and fighting ranks. This offensive activity includes the assassinations of senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukar in Beirut and Ismail Haniah in Tehran, as well as the destruction of over 50 tunnels in Gaza. The Israeli government's focus on winning in Gaza has come amidst tensions with Iran, which has been attempting to assess whether to move forward with a strike or work by proxy or continue negotiations. The US has also been involved in diplomatic efforts to broker agreements with Hamas, Hezbollah, and possibly Iran. The Israeli military's successes have been possible through specific intelligence and targeted operations, but some experts question the extent of their progress. Despite this, the Israeli government seems determined to continue its offensive actions in Gaza for now.
Hamas' long-term planning: Despite Israel's military successes in weakening Hamas, their leaders' long-term planning and lack of viable training options may pose ongoing threats.
Israel's military operations in Gaza have significantly weakened Hamas' military capabilities, leading to the death or injury of thousands of fighters and the detention of many more. However, the complexity arises from the fact that Hamas leaders have been in their positions for years and have been planning attacks against Israel for decades. Moreover, the Philadelphia corridor, which allowed Hamas fighters to leave Gaza for training, is no longer functional. Israel's focus on Gaza may have been effective in the short term, but it has also left them with fewer resources to deal with other threats on seven other fronts, including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. The Israeli strategy of sealing Gaza has worked, but the long-term implications and potential consequences of this approach remain to be seen.
Israeli strategy in Lebanon conflict: The Israeli government's lack of a clear strategy in the October 2020 conflict with Hezbollah resulted in lost territory and failed to prevent Hezbollah's significant victory. Some argue that a preemptive strike could have been an option, but the fear of a long war and Iranian weapon imports hindered Israel's decision making.
The Israeli government's handling of the October 2020 conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon has been criticized for lacking a clear strategy. The conventional wisdom is that Israel lost territory and failed to stop Hezbollah's significant victory. Some argue that Israel missed an opportunity to launch a preemptive strike against Hezbollah after the October 7th attacks, focusing instead on Gaza. The Israeli government's indecision may be due in part to the fear of a long war and the importing of weapons from Iran. Despite this, some believe that had the US provided Israel with the necessary weaponry, they could have taken out Hezbollah and avoided the current situation. Overall, the lack of a clear strategy in dealing with Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a major concern.
Iran's Nuclear Program and Regional Conflicts: The US and Israel have different approaches to dealing with Iran's nuclear program and regional conflicts, with the US pursuing diplomacy and Israel imposing costs. However, the US lacks confidence in its understanding of Iran's capabilities and intentions, and the lack of consequences for Iran's aggressive actions could embolden it to pursue more dangerous strategies.
Iran has multiple strategies in play regarding its nuclear program and regional conflicts, including pursuing diplomacy, allowing for a soft landing in negotiations, unleashing proxies in a war of attrition, and potentially making a dash for a bomb. The US and Israel have different approaches to dealing with Iran, with the US continuing to pursue diplomacy, and Israel imposing costs on Iran. A recent report from the US Director of National Intelligence raised concerns that the US no longer has confidence in its understanding of Iran's nuclear capabilities and intentions, and that the regime is openly speaking about its nuclear program while targeting American forces and bases in the region without facing significant consequences. The lack of costs imposed on Iran could embolden it to pursue more aggressive strategies, making the situation in the Middle East increasingly volatile.
US strategy towards Israel and Iran: The inconsistent US response to conflicts and criticism of Israel may be emboldening its enemies and weakening its allies, requiring a more credible threat of force and consistent support to deter aggression.
The current strategy of the US and its attempts to constrain Israel in its conflict with Hamas and Iran may be emboldening the regimes involved, rather than deterring them. The Israeli strikes against Iranian targets, such as the radar installation taken out in April, are seen as a message, but the Iranians may not believe Israel has the capability to continue these attacks at will. Meanwhile, the US response to attacks on its forces in the region has been inconsistent, and criticism of Israel from the US and its allies has given the impression of daylight between the US and Israel, potentially weakening Israel's position. To prevent a regional war, the US should instead project a credible threat of force and provide Israel with the necessary support to deter its enemies. The current approach of criticizing friends and letting enemies off the hook is not an effective strategy for achieving desired outcomes. Additionally, the alignment of Iran, Russia, and China in the Middle East makes the US inability to control the region a compounded strategic failure.
Israeli uncertainty: Israeli uncertainty under Netanyahu's leadership is causing concern for regional allies and world powers, potentially emboldening adversaries like Russia and China to push harder on their agendas
The current situation in Israel and its geopolitical implications are causing concern for many, including average Israelis and world powers like Russia and China. The lack of a clear strategy from Israel's leadership, particularly during this time of multiple fronts, is leaving many feeling uncertain and vulnerable. This uncertainty could embolden adversaries like Russia and China to push harder on their agendas, such as in the case of Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively. The absence of a cohesive strategy from Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu, is also leaving regional allies like Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the White House, nervous. It's crucial for both Washington and Jerusalem to communicate a clear sense of direction in the weeks ahead to help alleviate these concerns and preserve the US-led world order.
International security, foreign policy: Stay informed and engaged in current events related to international security and foreign policy, follow experts like John Chanser and FDD for insights, and encourage a strong civil society.
Key takeaway from our conversation with John Chanser is the importance of staying informed and engaged in current events, particularly those related to international security and foreign policy. John shared insights from his work at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, highlighting key issues and trends shaping the global landscape. He emphasized the need for a strong and active civil society, and encouraged listeners to stay informed through resources like The Morning Brief. So, whether you're a policy wonk or just looking to expand your knowledge, make sure to follow John Chanser at Jay Chanser (S-C-H-A-N-Z-E-R) and FDD. Stay tuned for more insightful conversations on Call Me Back.