Podcast Summary
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' Iowa Caucus Struggle: Ron DeSantis' entire presidential campaign hinges on performing well in Iowa caucuses. Despite intense focus, he finds himself in a close race for second place with Nikki Haley, which could determine his campaign's future.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has staked his entire presidential campaign on performing well in the Iowa caucuses, which are just a few days away. With Donald Trump holding a significant lead in the polls, DeSantis has focused all of his efforts on Iowa, visiting every county, securing the backing of local Republican leaders, and engaging in hand-to-hand campaigning. However, despite his intense focus, DeSantis finds himself in a close race with Nikki Haley for second place, leaving him in a tough spot just before the caucuses. The outcome in Iowa could determine whether DeSantis can resurrect his candidacy and make a two-person race with Trump, or if he will be forced to quit the race.
DeSantis targets Iowa as key battleground in GOP primary: DeSantis campaign focuses on Iowa, targeting soft Trump supporters and former supporters for grassroots campaigning to potentially set the tone for the primary season.
The DeSantis campaign is focusing on Iowa as a key battleground in the Republican primary based on the "Iowa model" of long-shot victories. They believe there are many soft Trump supporters who could be persuaded to vote for DeSantis, making this group the campaign's primary target. DeSantis' team is putting maximum effort into grassroots campaigning in Iowa, meeting voters face-to-face, and attempting to win over former Trump supporters like Lance Lowbridge, a farmer in Eastern Iowa. The success of this strategy hinges on the assumption that a significant number of Trump supporters are indeed persuadable. The DeSantis campaign's success in Iowa could set the tone for the rest of the primary season.
DeSantis's farming background and political awakening: DeSantis's farming experience led him to support Trump, but negative impacts on his business from tariffs made him disillusioned
DeSantis's experience as a farmer and his involvement with the Iowa Corn Growers Association led him to become politically engaged. He initially supported Trump due to his promises on trade, but the resulting tariffs and trade war negatively impacted his farming business, leading to increased costs and decreased sales. Despite receiving a bailout, DeSantis grew disillusioned with Trump's policies and their consequences on his livelihood. This experience highlights the potential challenges and unintended consequences of political decisions on everyday people and industries.
Voters like Lance may consider alternatives due to lack of appealing options: Some voters, like Lance, have supported Trump due to a lack of appealing alternatives, but personalized engagement with candidates like Ron DeSantis could change their minds.
Despite some voters' reservations about a candidate like Donald Trump, they may still support him due to a lack of appealing alternatives. Lance, a farmer and influential figure in his community, voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 because he saw him as the lesser of two evils. However, with the 2024 primary season approaching, Lance is now considering his options and looking for a Republican alternative with the whole package. During a meeting with Ron DeSantis, Lance was impressed by DeSantis' openness to learning about the agriculture industry and his genuine interest in farmers' concerns. This personalized engagement left a lasting impression on Lance and could potentially sway his decision in the upcoming primary.
Personal connections matter in elections: A genuine interaction between a voter and a candidate can change their perception and make them an advocate
Personal connections can significantly influence a voter's decision in an election. The story of Lance, a farmer from Iowa, illustrates this idea. Lance had a negative perception of Ron DeSantis based on media portrayals, but his opinion changed after a genuine phone call from DeSantis following Lance's motorcycle accident. This unexpected interaction left a lasting impression on Lance and shifted his support towards DeSantis. This incident showcases the importance of candidates making personal connections with voters, even if it's not possible to reach every voter directly. Moreover, when a supporter experiences a meaningful connection with a candidate, they are more likely to become advocates and help spread the word to others. Therefore, DeSantis' high touch strategy in Iowa, as demonstrated by this anecdote, can be a successful approach, although it may be challenging to replicate on a larger scale.
The power of personal connections in political campaigns: Volunteers like Lance, who use their personal experiences and connections to persuade voters, can be effective campaigners despite challenging conversations.
The power of personal connections and conversations cannot be underestimated in political campaigns. A volunteer named Lance has been making calls on behalf of the Ron DeSantis campaign, trying to convince undecided voters to switch from Trump. He's had success with some, but others have proven to be difficult. In one particularly challenging case, Lance's friend Nate, who shares many similarities with him but strongly supports Trump, has been resistant to DeSantis. Despite their differences, they found common ground in their dislike of Biden and their appreciation for Trump's authenticity. Through these conversations, Lance has become an effective campaigner, using his personal experiences and connections to persuade voters. The campaign has come to rely on him as a closer, and he's had hundreds of these conversations. The process isn't always easy, but the impact of these personal interactions can be significant in swaying voters' decisions.
Friends with opposing views on Trump's policies: Despite shared initial hope, friends experienced differing financial impacts from Trump's policies, leading to contrasting political views and potential voting choices in the 2024 primary
Two friends, Lance and Nate, held differing views towards former President Trump's policies, specifically his trade policies, despite initially sharing hope for his presidency. While Lance's larger farm operation took a significant financial hit during the "medicine era" of Trump's policies, Nate's smaller operation was less affected. Their contrasting experiences led to Lance's disillusionment with Trump, while Nate remained steadfast in his support. In the upcoming 2024 Republican primary, Nate is considering voting for Trump again, while Lance is leaning towards DeSantis. The friends' contrasting experiences and perspectives highlight the complexities and nuances within political beliefs and the influence of personal circumstances.
The Republican Party's internal debate over Trump's divisive nature: While some Republicans worry about Trump's divisiveness hurting the party, others remain loyal, highlighting the party's internal struggle over electoral strategy versus loyalty to the current president.
Trump's divisive nature and the intense hatred towards him from both Democrats and some Republicans raises concerns about his ability to win the general election and effectively govern if re-elected. Lance, a strategic thinker, believes that Trump's polarizing presence may lead to losses for the Republican Party and advocates for a more pragmatic candidate like DeSantis. Nate, on the other hand, remains a Trump supporter despite the potential challenges. The debate highlights the head versus heart argument within the Republican Party, with Lance prioritizing electoral strategy and Nate prioritizing loyalty to Trump.
Friends support preferred candidate despite disagreements: Friends Nathan and Lance maintain their friendship despite differing political opinions, with Nathan supporting Trump and Lance backing Biden, acknowledging the importance of personal convictions and strategic considerations in political decisions.
Despite having differing opinions on the strategic value of certain candidates and the importance of personal convictions versus strategic considerations, two friends, Nathan and Lance, remain committed to supporting their preferred candidate in the general election, even if it's Donald Trump, and acknowledge that their friendship remains unaffected by their political disagreements. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Iowa caucus results hinges on the question of whether Trump supporters who have not caucused before will show up to support him. If Trump does win the Iowa caucuses, Lance, who had expressed some disappointment, would still support him rather than Biden in the general election. The conversation highlights the complexity of political decisions and the importance of maintaining friendships despite political differences.
Republican Party underestimates number of voters for DeSantis and other candidates due to Trump's lead: The Republican Party, specifically Ron DeSantis, may have underestimated the number of Republican voters available to them in the 2024 presidential race due to Donald Trump's significant lead among GOP voters, potentially contributing to a lopsided race.
That the Republican Party, specifically Ron DeSantis, may have underestimated the number of Republican voters available to them in the 2024 presidential race. Polls indicate that Donald Trump maintains a significant lead among GOP voters, leaving fewer voters for other candidates like DeSantis. This miscalculation has contributed to the lopsided state of the race leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Furthermore, international news includes the US and its allies conducting military strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, following weeks of attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The expansion of the war in the Middle East raises concerns about the potential for further conflict in the region. At the United Nations, South African officials argued that Israel's military actions against Palestinians in Gaza constitute an intent to commit genocide, a claim Israel denies. The International Court of Justice will hear the case, but decisions are binding but not enforceable, and a final ruling could take years. This episode was reported and produced by Rob Zippko and Carlos Prieto, with help from Luke Fanderpluke. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Paige Coward, with fact checking by Susan Lee. Original music was provided by Mary and Lozato, Dan Powell, Will Reed, and engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landfork of Wonderland. That's it for today's Daily. I'm Michael Mulvorrow, signing off from Iowa.
