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    • Express love with thoughtful gifts from Blue Nile, Mint Mobile's affordable unlimited data plans, and assessing COVID-19 risk with online tools.Blue Nile offers beautiful pearls and gemstones for Mother's Day gifts, Mint Mobile provides affordable unlimited data plans, and online tools help evaluate COVID-19 risk for gatherings.

      This Mother's Day, consider expressing your love and appreciation with a thoughtful gift from Blue Nile. Blue Nile offers a wide selection of exquisite pearls and mesmerizing gemstones, with fast shipping options and discounts up to 50% off. Elsewhere, Mint Mobile is defying industry trends by lowering its prices instead of raising them, making it an affordable option for unlimited data plans. In the news, understanding the practical significance of COVID-19 case numbers can be challenging. A simple online tool can help assess the risk of attending a gathering based on local case numbers. And finally, this week on More or Less, we debunked a disputed tweet from former President Trump and discussed the significance of COVID-19 case numbers in the context of potential gatherings.

    • Estimating COVID-19 risk at gatheringsUsing location and gathering size, a tool estimates COVID-19 risk, emphasizing the importance of considering potential risks as gatherings grow larger.

      Professor Joshua Weitz and his team at Georgia Tech have developed a tool that allows individuals to input their location and the size of their gathering to estimate the likelihood of someone at the event having COVID-19. Weitz created this tool due to concerns about the potential for super spreading events when gatherings become large enough. The risk may seem low for an individual, but when compounded, the odds of having an infected person in the group increase. For example, in Oxfordshire, England, the current risk level for a gathering of 10 people is 10%, while in Newcastle, that risk level jumps to 50% for a gathering of 25 people. These high percentages highlight the importance of considering the potential risks associated with gatherings, especially as the size increases. It's important to remember that the situation varies by region, and individuals should stay informed about the current risk levels in their area.

    • Risks of COVID-19 infection in gatherings vary greatly depending on locationIn small gatherings, the risk of COVID-19 infection is relatively low but increases significantly in larger groups. Location plays a role in determining the risk, with areas of high infection rates posing a greater danger.

      Even in small gatherings, there's a significant risk of encountering someone with COVID-19, especially in areas with high infection rates. For instance, in Oxfordshire, England, the risk is estimated to be around 0.9%, but in Newcastle, it's almost double at 1.8%. However, the risk increases substantially when considering larger groups. For example, in North and South Dakota, the risk of having at least one COVID-19 case in a gathering of 25 people is above 80%. These statistics can be hard to grasp intuitively, which is why researchers have tried to connect local case reports to the risk of infection at events. However, it's important to note that these models have assumptions and caveats. For instance, they assume that each individual's risk is independent and homogeneous, which may not always be the case. Additionally, individual risk factors, such as age, health conditions, and behavior, can significantly impact the likelihood of contracting COVID-19. Therefore, while these statistics can provide valuable context, they should not be the sole determinant of whether or not to attend a gathering. Instead, individuals should consider the specific circumstances of the event and take appropriate precautions to minimize their risk.

    • COVID-19 transmission risk depends on social gathering size and compositionThe risk of COVID-19 transmission is higher in gatherings of families or groups with potentially correlated risk levels. Under-reporting of cases, especially in the US and possibly England, may inflate the actual number of infections.

      The risk of COVID-19 transmission varies greatly depending on the size and composition of social gatherings. When families or groups with potentially correlated risk levels come together, there's a higher chance of either no infections or multiple infections. Additionally, the actual number of COVID-19 cases is likely much higher than reported due to under-testing, especially in the US and possibly England. Regarding the US election, the claim of voter fraud in Detroit, as made by President Trump, is not entirely disputed. While the number of registered voters in Detroit is less than the population, the turnout rate was not unusually high. However, the validity of individual votes and potential issues with mail-in ballots are still under investigation.

    • Fact: Detroit voters favored Hillary Clinton in 2016Detroit voters favored Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential election, with Clinton receiving nearly 95% of the votes. Trump's lower percentage in Detroit may explain his interest in the city in political discussions.

      During the 2016 US Presidential election, Donald Trump received less than 5% of the votes in Detroit, Michigan, which is significantly lower than the national average. This low percentage may explain why Trump has targeted Detroit in various political discussions. It's important to note that this claim is not disputed but rather a factual observation. Additionally, if you're interested in the ongoing race for a safe and effective vaccine, consider listening to a new podcast on the BBC, titled "How to Vaccinate the World." Lastly, UnitedHealthcare Insurance Plans offer flexible and budget-friendly coverage options for medical, dental, and vision needs, providing flexibility for individuals with various life situations.

    Recent Episodes from More or Less: Behind the Stats

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    Election endings, tennis and meeting men in finance

    Are Labour right about employment? Are the Conservatives right about cutting NHS managers? Are the Lib Dems right about share buyback? Are Reform UK right about their tax plans?

    How do they make the exit poll so accurate?

    What are the odds of meeting a very tall man in finance (with a trust fund)?

    What does it mean that Roger Federer only won 54% of the points he played?

    Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead Latham and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

    How a tick box doubled the US maternal mortality rates.

    How a tick box doubled the US maternal mortality rates.

    he US has been portrayed as in the grip of a maternal mortality crisis. In contrast to most other developed nations, the rate of maternal deaths in the US has been going up since the early 2000s.

    But why? With the help of Saloni Dattani, a researcher at Our World in Data, Tim Harford explores how a gradual change in the way the data was gathered lies at the heart of the problem.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Emma Harth Editor: Richard Vadon

    Election claims and erection claims

    Election claims and erection claims

    Are Labour right about the Liz Truss effect on mortgages? Are the Conservatives right about pensioners? Are Plaid Cymru right about spending? Are the Lib Dems right about care funding? Is Count Binface right about croissants?

    Why are MRP polls coming up with such different numbers?

    Do erections require a litre of blood?

    Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Simon Tulett, Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead Latham and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

    Do ‘pig butchering’ cyber scams make as much as half Cambodia’s GDP?

    Do ‘pig butchering’ cyber scams make as much as half Cambodia’s GDP?

    So-called “pig butchering” scams take billions of dollars from people around the globe. But do the cyber scams run from compounds in Cambodia really take an amount of money equivalent to half that country’s GDP? We investigate how the scale of these criminal operations has been calculated.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon

    Worse mortgages, better readers, and potholes on the moon

    Worse mortgages, better readers, and potholes on the moon

    Will Conservative policies raise mortgages by £4800, as Labour claim? Are primary school kids in England the best readers in the (western) world, as the Conservatives claim? Are there more potholes in the UK than craters on the moon?

    Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Simon Tullet Beth Ashmead-Latham and Debbie Richford Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

    Shakespeare’s maths

    Shakespeare’s maths

    AWilliam Shakespeare might well rank as the most influential writer in the English language. But it seems he also had a knack for numbers.

    Rob Eastaway, author of Much Ado about Numbers, tells Tim Harford about the simple maths that brings Shakespeare’s work to life.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Readings: Stella Harford and Jordan Dunbar Producer: Beth Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

    Leaflets, taxes, oil workers and classrooms

    Leaflets, taxes, oil workers and classrooms

    What’s going on with the dodgy bar charts that political parties put on constituency campaign leaflets?

    What’s the truth about tax promises?

    Are 100,000 oil workers going to lose their jobs in Scotland?

    Will class sizes increase in state schools if private schools increase their fees?

    Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead-Latham, Debbie Richford Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

    Why medical error is not the third leading cause of death in the US

    Why medical error is not the third leading cause of death in the US

    The claim that medical error is the third leading cause of death in the US has been zooming around the internet for years.

    This would mean that only heart disease and cancer killed more people than the very people trying to treat these diseases.

    But there are good reasons to be suspicious about the claim.

    Professor Mary Dixon-Woods, director of The Healthcare Improvement Studies Institute, or THIS Institute, at Cambridge University, explains what’s going on.

    Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

    Debate, Reform, tax evasion and ants

    Debate, Reform, tax evasion and ants

    Were there any suspicious claims in the election debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer?

    Do the claims in Reform UK’s policy documents on excess deaths and climate change make sense?

    Can the Conservatives and Labour raise £6bn a year by cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion?

    And do all the humans on earth weigh more than all of the ants?

    Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

    Data for India

    Data for India

    India’s election has been running since 19 April. With results imminent on 4th June, More or Less talks with Chennai based data communicator Rukmini S. She founded Data for India, a new website designed to make socioeconomic data on India easier to find and understand. She talks us through the changing trends to help give a better picture of the type of country the winning party will govern.

    Producers: Bethan Ashmead and Nathan Gower Sound Engineer: Nigel Appleton Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

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    Ukraine hails 'historic step' as EU takes Kyiv closer to membership & understanding a war time budget

    Ukraine hails 'historic step' as EU takes Kyiv closer to membership & understanding a war time budget

    Day 621.

    Today, we bring you the latest updates from Ukraine, discuss the news that Ukraine has been formally recommended for EU membership and we deep-dive into Ukraine’s war time budget. 


    Contributors:

    David Knowles (Host). @djknowles22 on Twitter.

    Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.

    Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.

    Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe Twitter.

    With thanks to Yurii Gaidai, Senior Economist at the Centre for Economic Strategy.


    Read more: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/fourteen-facts-about-us-aid-support-cost-ukraine-luke-coffey


    Find out more: 

    Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

    Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk

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    #169 Build your brain using food, with Dr Uma Naidoo

    #169 Build your brain using food, with Dr Uma Naidoo

    On the show today, I catch up with Dr Uma, a Harvard-trained psychiatrist, Professional Chef and Nutrition Specialist. 


    Uma has been on the pod before where we talked about nutrition, OCD and anxiety and on today’s episode we talk through practical tips on:


    • hydration for mental health and some practical tips to drink more
    • How her views evolved since writing her book “The Food Mood connection”
    • The 80/20 rule and the importance of balance and flexibility
    • What’s in her cupboard & fridge and some budget-friendly ways to eat well
    • Spices that support brain health
    • What’s next for the field of nutritional psychiatry, including psychobiotics


    🎬 Watch the podcast on YouTube here

    📱 Download The Doctor’s Kitchen app for free


    You can download The Doctor’s Kitchen app for free to get access to all of our recipes, with specific suggestions tailored to your health needs and new recipes added every month. We’ve had some amazing feedback so far and we have new features being added all the time - check it out with a 14 day free trial too.


    Do check out this week’s “Eat, Listen, Read” newsletter, that you can subscribe to on our website - where I send you a recipe to cook as well as some mindfully curated media to help you have a healthier, happier week.


    🥗 Join the newsletter and 7 day meal plan

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    We would love to get your feedback on the subject matter of these episodes - please do let me know on our social media pages (Instagram, Facebook & Twitter) what you think,and give us a 5* rating on your podcast player if you enjoyed today’s episode.


    Links:


    Check out our previous conversation about food, OCD and anxiety: https://thedoctorskitchen.com/podcasts/83-the-brain-series-part-1-of-3-food-ocd-and-anxiety-with-dr-uma-naidoo




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