Podcast Summary
Challenges in detecting slower-moving threats to national security: Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling discusses the importance of prioritizing threats and the challenges in detecting slower-moving, less conventional threats, such as the recent Chinese balloon incident, which may have gone unnoticed due to NORAD's focus on high-threat activity.
Importance of prioritizing threats to national security and the challenges in detecting slower-moving, less conventional threats. Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, a military analyst for CNN and former commanding general of the US Army Europe and the 7th Army, joined the podcast to discuss various topics, including the recent discovery of a large Chinese balloon in US airspace. Hertling explained that the balloon, which had a radar signature but was slow moving, may have gone unnoticed due to NORAD's focus on high-threat activity, such as nuclear weapons and bombers. He also shared his concerns about the dangers of authoritarianism and the importance of upholding democratic values. While the State of the Union address may receive significant media attention, Hertling's insights offer a valuable perspective on the complexities of national security and the need for continued vigilance.
Chinese Surveillance Balloon Tests U.S. Defenses: The Chinese balloon incident revealed the importance of monitoring enemy actions and staying adaptive to potential threats, while highlighting the need for improved intelligence collection from air defense capabilities.
The recent incident with the Chinese surveillance balloon entering U.S. airspace was an attempt by China to test the defensive mechanisms of the United States. The Chinese may have been gathering electronic intelligence during this probe, but they were also observing U.S. responses, including government and military actions, public reactions, and political divisions. From a military perspective, this can be seen as a reconnaissance tactic, where the enemy observes the enemy's territory and intentions without engaging in direct conflict. The U.S. was able to track and monitor the balloon, and even employ countermeasures, but the incident highlights the need for improved intelligence collection from the country's air defense capabilities. Overall, the incident serves as a reminder of the importance of staying vigilant and adaptive in the face of potential threats.
Learning from the US-China Balloon Incident: The US-China balloon incident highlights the importance of gathering valuable intelligence and maintaining diplomatic relations, rather than engaging in unnecessary displays of force or political grandstanding.
The Chinese government can learn about the US processes and decision-making from the incident involving the surveillance balloon. Shooting it down prematurely could have escalated the situation into a greater international incident, potentially causing more harm than good. The performance theater exhibited by some politicians and former officials, posing with weapons and making hasty decisions, was unprofessional and immature. While the incident raised important issues regarding national defense and US-China relations, the theatrics surrounding it were a distraction and detracted from the seriousness of the matter. The focus should be on gathering valuable intelligence and maintaining diplomatic relations, rather than engaging in unnecessary displays of force or political grandstanding.
Chinese Balloon Incident: An Embarrassment for China and a Reminder of Careful Consideration: The Chinese balloon incident highlighted the importance of careful consideration and the potential consequences of hasty actions, while also allowing for valuable intelligence gathering and the implementation of diplomatic protocols.
The incident with the Chinese balloon over U.S. airspace was an embarrassment for China, despite their reported intentions for a charm offensive. The U.S. government's response, while not perfect, allowed for valuable intelligence gathering and the implementation of the Open Skies protocol. The Chinese government's clumsy intelligence collection attempt was a departure from the prudence typically required in government decision making. The situation serves as a reminder of the importance of careful consideration and the potential consequences of hasty actions. Additionally, the speaker touched on the growing threat of authoritarianism and the importance of upholding the oath of an old soldier, which includes protecting democratic values and institutions.
Defending the American Constitution and Values: The American military and government's commitment to defend the Constitution and its values sets them apart and connects them to significant speeches and ideals, but authoritarianism poses a threat to this democratic system.
The unique aspect of the American military and government lies in the oath they take to defend the Constitution and the values it embodies. This commitment sets them apart from other militaries and governments that swear allegiance to a monarch or a specific land. This oath also connects them to significant speeches and ideals that have shaped American society. However, the rise of authoritarianism, both internally and externally, poses a significant threat to this democratic system. Authoritarians, whether they are foreign powers or domestic extremists, seek to undermine the intent of the Constitution and the values it represents. As someone who has worked with various militaries and governments, the speaker expresses a deep concern for the potential consequences of authoritarianism and the importance of continuing to strive for a more perfect union where everyone's voice is heard.
Military Faces Internal Threat from Divisive Beliefs: The military grapples with individuals holding divisive beliefs, complicating its role in upholding the constitution and maintaining the civilian-military relationship. Historical context offers insights.
The military is currently grappling with an internal threat, as there are individuals within its ranks who hold divisive and potentially authoritarian beliefs. This issue is concerning due to the military's role in upholding the constitution and maintaining the civilian-military relationship. The military's attempts to address this challenge are complicated by the fact that it draws its recruits from society, which may harbor divisiveness and extremist ideologies. The military leadership faced unprecedented tests to their oath of office during the 2020 and 2021 political climate, as they were pressured to take actions that could have violated their constitutional duties. Historical parallels, such as the Civil War era, offer insights into the complexities of this issue.
Military leaders facing tough decisions between obeying illegal orders and upholding their oath: Military leaders must balance their loyalty to civilian authority with their duty to uphold the law and Constitution, even if it means going against traditional military hierarchy and potentially facing consequences.
Military leaders, even those at the highest ranks, may face difficult decisions where they must choose between following potentially illegal orders and upholding their oath of office. This was evident in the cases of Walt Pyatt and Charlie Flynn, who were criticized for not deploying National Guard troops during the January 6th Capitol riots due to concerns about the legality of such actions. Milley, as the chairman of the joint chiefs, also had to navigate such a situation when he took orders from Vice President Pence instead of the president. While these actions may be seen as going against the traditional military hierarchy, they illustrate the importance of upholding the law and the Constitution, even in the face of political pressure. The line between loyalty to civilian authority and loyalty to the law can be blurry, but military leaders must be prepared to make tough calls and potentially face consequences for doing so.
Military Prevents Illegal Orders, Prepares for Ethical Dilemmas: The military, under General Milley's leadership, has mechanisms to prevent illegal orders and prepares leaders for ethical dilemmas.
The military, specifically General Mark Milley, has checks and balances in place to prevent the execution of illegal orders. This was evident during the January 6th Capitol insurrection when Milley refused to follow an alleged illegal order from former President Trump. Furthermore, the military is preparing its leaders for ethical dilemmas and studying historical events for guidance. Regarding Ukraine, the situation remains tense with intensifying Russian assaults, particularly around Bakhmut. While Ukraine has been effective in defending against these attacks, the Russians' numerical advantage could lead to advances, making the late winter and early spring a challenging time for the Ukrainian forces.
A 'slugfest' between Ukraine and Russia in Donbas: Both Ukraine and Russia are making gains in the Donbas conflict, with Ukraine predicted to gain the upper hand in spring and summer.
The ongoing conflict in the Donbas region between Ukraine and Russia is a "slugfest" with both sides trying to gain ground before the Russians can fully mobilize their poorly trained and led soldiers. The Russians aim to hold and advance territory, while Ukraine waits for the arrival of tactical weapons to enhance their combined arms capability. The race is on to see which side can make the most progress before the tanks and armor arrive. The Russians have historically sought to freeze conflicts and hold territory, such as in Transnistria and South Ossetia, and they are likely to continue this strategy in Ukraine. However, Ukraine is also expanding its offensive capabilities, and it is predicted that the conflict will continue as a slugfest in the late winter, with the Ukrainian forces gaining the upper hand in the spring and summer. Another concern is the potential for a Russian attack from Belarus toward Kyiv and the northern part of Ukraine, which could cause the Ukrainians to divert resources and attention. Both sides are fatigued on the front lines.
Ukraine's Defense Amidst Russian Threats and Civilian Casualties: Ukraine faces ongoing threats from Russia, requiring strong territorial defense and civilian protection. Russia's lack of success in mobilizing new soldiers doesn't diminish their potential threat. Continued Western support is crucial for Ukraine's democracy.
The situation in Ukraine remains volatile and uncertain, with the potential for Russian attacks from both the north and the south serving as distractions and draining resources from Ukrainian defenses. While a large-scale invasion may not be imminent, the threat of one requires Ukraine to maintain a strong territorial defense. Additionally, the ongoing missile and rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities continue to cause civilian casualties. Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, a former commanding general of the US Army Europe and the 7th Army, expressed concern over Russia's lack of success in mobilizing and training their new soldiers, but warned that they would still pose a significant threat in any potential conflict. The continued support from the West and the United States for Ukraine's fight for democracy is also a significant factor in the ongoing conflict. Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains complex and multifaceted, with potential threats coming from various directions and the need for continued vigilance and support from the international community.
