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    Michael Mayer – Pseudonymous Social Capital and Bottomless Coffee - [Invest Like the Best, EP.124]

    enMarch 12, 2019

    Podcast Summary

    • Emphasizing content over personal identity onlineBuilding a successful online presence doesn't require a public identity. Focus on the ideas and information being shared to build social capital and transfer it effectively.

      Michael Mayer, the founder of Bottomless and an active user of pseudonymous social media accounts, believes that online identity and personal information are irrelevant to the value of the content being shared. He emphasizes the importance of having a high signal-to-noise ratio and keeping the focus on the ideas and information being presented. Mayer's experience shows that building a successful online presence doesn't require a public identity, and that social capital can be effectively transferred and used when necessary. Mayer's background includes a rapid progression over the last five years, and he is now the founder of Bottomless, a company that solves the problem of managing coffee supplies by using a connected scale to automatically order new beans when needed. Mayer's unique approach to social media and entrepreneurship highlights the importance of focusing on the content and ideas being shared, rather than personal identity.

    • Transforming through habits and influencesForming good habits and removing negative influences are key to personal growth and success. Explore new interests, but also exploit existing strengths to build a solid foundation for productivity.

      Forming good habits and removing negative influences played a crucial role in transforming someone who had dropped out of an unranked university and was working in a restaurant into a productive individual with a successful company and a strong online presence. The speaker emphasized the importance of removing unhealthy habits and people from one's life to create a solid foundation for productivity. They also highlighted the fascination with technology and building the future as the driving force behind their interests in business and startups. While the speaker didn't mention any specific catalyst for change, they noted that once habits started to compound, it became easier to add new, positive habits on top. The concept of exploring and exploiting was touched upon, with the suggestion that finding the right balance between the two is essential for personal growth.

    • Discovering valuable resources leads to opportunitiesExploring free, documented resources online can lead to significant discoveries and the courage to start a business, but choosing the right strategy and technology is crucial.

      Exploration and leveraging available resources, whether it's coding or business strategies, can lead to significant discoveries and opportunities. The speaker's experience of building a simple project to display independent movie theater showtimes was a turning point, as they discovered the vast amount of free, fully documented resources available online. This epiphany fueled their curiosity and eventually led them to leave their job to start a business. Similarly, the wealth of information available on business strategy can provide anyone with valuable insights. However, it's essential to remember that while the knowledge is accessible, execution and judgment are crucial. Not every strategy or technology is suitable for every business, and it's important to choose wisely. The keys to success are out there, waiting for those who are curious and willing to explore.

    • Focusing on originality and unique interests for effective social capital creationAn authentic pursuit of unique interests and a diverse information diet increases the chances of creating effective social capital.

      While it's important to explore new technologies and trends, being a contrarian isn't always the best strategy. By the time you hear a contrarian idea, it may no longer be contrarian and less likely to work. Instead, focusing on originality and an authentic pursuit of unique interests can lead to effective social capital creation. An original information diet is crucial for generating unique ideas. Consuming the same information as everyone else makes it difficult to stand out. While there are no set rules for creating original social capital, an authentic pursuit of unique interests and a diverse information diet can increase the chances of success. Education, whether traditional or unconventional, can play a role in this process. However, even a Harvard degree can only take you so far, and creating social capital in a unique way makes you irreplaceable.

    • Focus on high-quality informationCurate your feeds, read what interests you, and focus on weekly, monthly, or quarterly information for valuable content creation

      The quality of information we consume plays a crucial role in our ability to create valuable content and build social capital. The speaker emphasized the importance of cutting out bad information and focusing on sources that provide solid insights. He mentioned that most people spend too much time consuming junk news articles and that it's better to curate your social media feeds and read what genuinely interests you. The speaker also shared his opinion on not reading daily news, stating that it's out of date and largely irrelevant. Instead, he recommended focusing on weekly, monthly, or quarterly information to stay informed. Overall, the discussion highlighted the importance of being intentional about the information we consume and transforming it into valuable content.

    • The shift from traditional education to self-paced learningSelf-education and personalized learning are more efficient and effective in today's world, allowing individuals to learn at their own pace and control their education.

      Self-education and personalized learning are becoming increasingly important and efficient in today's world. The traditional education system, while effective in the past, is no longer the most effective way to learn, especially with the availability of self-paced resources. The speaker's experience with teaching himself code and the possibility of one-on-one learning at one's own pace are examples of this shift. The business discussed in the conversation, which uses a smart subscription to optimize coffee deliveries based on usage, is an interesting application of this trend. This business, which started with coffee but has the potential to expand to other areas, represents the idea of making previously unquantifiable data legible to computers. This legibility can lead to significant changes in various industries, as seen with the rise of location-based services after smartphones became common. Overall, the speaker encourages individuals to take control of their learning and embrace the potential of personalized, self-paced education.

    • Making consumption patterns and stock levels legible to a network for subscription servicesSubscription services can increase efficiency by addressing the information problem of when to ship products, but human consumption habits are unpredictable and require flexible solutions.

      Making consumption patterns and stock levels legible to a network can significantly increase the efficiency and feasibility of subscription services for various products, even those with inconsistent consumption rates. However, humans are unpredictable in their consumption habits, and the assumption that people consume products at a constant rate is often incorrect. This is why traditional retail models focus on whether customers want a product or not, but the real challenge is determining when to ship the product. By addressing this information problem, it's possible to expand the market for subscription services beyond just a few categories. Instacart is an example of a service that tackles a similar problem by making grocery delivery convenient and quick, reducing the need for customers to frequently visit physical stores. The differences between these two models lie in their approach to addressing the challenges of retail, and there may be white spaces where a combination of the two could offer even more value to consumers.

    • Learning and iterating in the early stages of a businessTaking calculated risks, learning from mistakes, and continuously improving are crucial in the entrepreneurial journey. Initial decisions may be based on limited knowledge, but being open to learning and adapting can lead to significant improvements.

      The early stages of building a business involve making decisions based on limited knowledge and resources, and being open to learning and iterating as you go. This was evident in the story of the creation of a coffee subscription service, where the founder initially chose a scalable technology despite not having a hardware engineering background. He also prioritized battery power for the device's longevency, and learned through trial and error that customers didn't care about the device's appearance. The process involved turning their apartment into a mini manufacturing facility and building as many scales as needed each week. Through this experience, they were able to improve the product significantly, from working 70% of the time to 95% reliability, and make it easier to assemble. This demonstrates the importance of taking calculated risks, learning from mistakes, and continuously improving in the entrepreneurial journey.

    • Learning from customer preferences and supplier relationshipsSuccessful businesses require iterative processes, not one-time events. Owning the customer relationship and maintaining supplier partnerships can lead to innovative disintermediation marketplaces, benefiting both parties.

      The iterative process is crucial for building a successful business, rather than relying on a one-time event like a Kickstarter campaign. The founders of this coffee subscription service learned this through their experience, as they discovered that people don't want to pay for reordering hardware and prefer to have their coffee delivered seamlessly. They also found that roasters are willing to participate in their model because it helps them maintain the freshness of their product and reduces customer churn. While the founders aim to keep their device simple, they do recognize some supplier power due to customers' brand preferences. Owning the customer relationship is a significant leverage point for the business, allowing them to control the default options and ship whatever they choose. This model showcases a disintermediation marketplace that benefits both the roasters and the consumers, making it an innovative approach in the modern tech business landscape.

    • Leveraging the direct customer relationship for business advantagesAmazon's success demonstrates the power of owning the customer relationship, allowing control over decision-making and money flow. Brands outside Amazon can also benefit from this stickiness and control, leading to potential cost savings.

      Owning the direct customer relationship gives a company significant leverage and advantages over competitors. Amazon's success is a prime example of this, as they've built a vast network of customers and have control over the decision-making process and money flow. Brands that don't sell on Amazon but have a strong customer relationship can still own that relationship, as customers may be willing to go outside their normal workflow to get those products. This stickiness and control over the customer experience can lead to accumulating advantages, such as lower shipping costs and the ability to bundle shipments, potentially making the business cheaper than competitors. However, challenges and objections to this business model include the need for significant scale and the potential difficulty of replicating Amazon's customer base and relationships.

    • Scaling hardware production and customer retention challengesBuilding a hardware company comes with operational hurdles and emotional ups and downs, but the potential market size of $500B for frequently purchased items motivates the founder to overcome these challenges. Customer validation and satisfaction are crucial for success.

      Building a hardware company like Bottomless, which aims to provide continuous supply of frequently purchased items, comes with significant operational challenges and emotional rollercoaster experiences for the founder. The founder has faced difficulties in scaling the hardware production, dealing with customer retention, and validating the business model. However, the potential market size of $500 billion for repeatedly purchased items in the US is audacious but not impossible. The most significant emotional moment for the founder was the validation from customers who expressed their satisfaction with the service and were willing to pay a substantial amount to continue using it. Despite the skepticism and challenges, the founder remains optimistic about the future of Bottomless.

    • Investor validation is crucial for entrepreneursConvincing investors to believe in your vision is a significant validation of your business idea. Having a supportive co-founder can provide constant input and strategic decisions during early stages. Y Combinator's intense interview process provides valuable feedback and validation.

      Investor validation is a crucial step in the entrepreneurial journey. Convincing smart investors to believe in your vision and invest their money is a significant validation of your business idea. This was exemplified by the speaker's experience with Y Combinator, where the interview process was intense and brief, but provided valuable feedback. The speaker also highlighted the advantage of having a co-founder, especially a spouse, who can provide constant support and strategic input during the early stages of a startup when important decisions need to be made. The speaker acknowledged that their wife was the real founder of Bottomless and her input and support were instrumental in the company's success. The Y Combinator interview process was unique, with interviews conducted face-to-face, despite being only 10 minutes long, and feedback provided on the same day. The speaker shared an amusing anecdote about how they received the acceptance call and downplayed its significance, but acknowledged the importance of the validation they received.

    • The power of a focused and action-oriented partnerA determined and focused partner can lead to personal and professional success. In business, making something affordable to attract a large audience and then gradually increasing price and quality can expand revenue and cater to different market segments.

      Having a focused and action-oriented partner can significantly contribute to personal and professional success. The speaker's wife, who was born and raised in Lima, Peru, and moved to the US alone at a young age, is an excellent example of this. Her determination and focus have led her to build a successful career, starting from entry-level jobs and progressing to a senior consultant position at Workday. The couple, who are married, have founded a company called Bottomless, which has seen remarkable growth by acquiring coffee customers that break even and then expanding revenue by offering other products at minimal acquisition cost. The strategy involves waiting until customer acquisition costs for coffee become unprofitable before introducing new products. This insight can be applied to various industries, where making something more affordable to mass audiences can increase demand, and then gradually increasing the price and quality to cater to a different market segment. The "commercial loop" or "price cycle" concept can be observed in the beer industry, where mass-produced beers are made affordable to attract a large customer base, and then artisanal beers are introduced at a higher price point to cater to a niche market. This cycle continues, creating opportunities for growth and expansion.

    • Industry cycles in beer and marijuana industriesThe beer industry shows how industries cycle between consolidation and fragmentation, and the marijuana industry is following a similar pattern. Spaced repetition, a learning technique, could create a more meaningful social media experience by reminding users of important content at optimal intervals.

      Industries go through cycles of consolidation and fragmentation, driven by economies of scale and consumer demand. This was seen in the beer industry, where big companies dominated but eventually gave way to craft brewers, only to be consolidated again. A similar pattern is happening in the marijuana industry. Another intriguing idea discussed was the potential for a spaced repetition social network. The current model of social media, with its emphasis on ephemeral content, can lead to information overload. Spaced repetition, a learning technique that involves reviewing information at increasing intervals, could be used to create a more meaningful social network experience. By reminding users of important content at optimal intervals, this could help users better curate their information and make social media a more valuable tool for learning and memory retention. The speaker also mentioned an app called "Spaced" that implements this concept. Overall, the discussion highlighted the importance of understanding industry cycles and the potential for innovative solutions to improve our use of technology.

    • Incentivizing intellectual engagement on social mediaSocial networks that reward users for engaging with intellectual concepts could lead to unique content and successful businesses.

      There's potential in creating a social network that incentivizes users to engage with and remember intellectual concepts by allowing them to save and repeat content, similar to a spaced repetition system. This could lead to a different type of content being shared on social media platforms and could potentially be scaled through an API for developers to build on. Additionally, recognizing and magnifying interesting use cases of tools and platforms, rather than trying to iterate towards an epiphany, can lead to successful businesses. Ultimately, reformulating problems as information problems and utilizing technology to tackle them can lead to improvements in various aspects of life.

    • Sharing contrarian ideas on social media can attract a larger followingContrarian ideas that resonate with the audience can help grow a social media presence. Being interesting and provoking thought, even if wrong, is more important than absolute truth. Focus on lifting everyone up, not equal outcomes to avoid negative consequences.

      While building a presence on Twitter and other social media platforms, finding and sharing ideas that seem contrarian but are actually widely accepted can help attract a larger following. These tweets feel fresh and unique to the audience, even if the ideas are not truly original. Conversely, tweets that are genuinely contrarian but don't resonate with the audience may not gain much traction. Additionally, being interesting and provoking thought, even if it means being wrong, is more important than striving for absolute truth. It's essential to have followers who are engaged with your content and are not afraid to lose a few along the way. Lastly, the speaker shared a controversial opinion that while the concept of equality is essential, the pursuit of equal outcomes can lead to unintended negative consequences. Instead, efforts should focus on lifting everyone up to a slightly higher median, avoiding constant cost inflation.

    • Focusing on others' success is kinder than trying to pull them downInstead of striving to pull others below us, focus on their success and well-being for positive outcomes

      Constantly trying to pull the bottom above the median in income distribution or any other area is an impossible task. Economically, it's not sustainable and can lead to negative consequences. Instead, focusing on wanting others to thrive and succeed, regardless of the impact on oneself, is a fundamentally kind act. This sentiment is widely applicable and can lead to positive outcomes for individuals and society as a whole. Additionally, meeting people who genuinely care about our success and want us to do well can be a game-changer in our lives. These selfless acts may not be common, but they are invaluable and something to be grateful for.

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    My guest today is Howie Liu. Howie is the co-founder and CEO of Airtable, a no-code app platform that allows teams to build on top of their shared data and create productive workflows. The business began in 2013 and now has use cases built out for over 300,000 organizations. As Airtable begins to integrate AI and the latest LLMs into its product, Howie has maintained a focus on an intuitive building experience, allowing anyone to build out their workflow within minutes or hours. We discuss the future of the platform in the era of AI, his perspective on horizontal versus vertical software solutions, and his crucial moments as a leader in building a critical component to the advancement of productivity. Please enjoy this discussion with Howie Liu.  Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, where we're changing the game in investment research. Step away from outdated, inefficient methods and into the future with our platform, proudly hosting over 100,000 transcripts – with over 25,000 transcripts added just this year alone. Our platform grows eight times faster and adds twice as much monthly content as our competitors, putting us at the forefront of the industry. Plus, with 75% of private market transcripts available exclusively on Tegus, we offer insights you simply can't find elsewhere. See the difference a vast, quality-driven transcript library makes. Unlock your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:06:49) Exploring Horizontal vs. Vertical Software in the AI Era (00:11:00) The Future of Customized Applications (00:15:28) Perspectives on AI's Future and Enterprise Adoption (00:18:13) The Evolution of LLMs and Their Impact on Software Development (00:23:33) Harnessing AI for Business Transformation and Innovation (00:27:28) Reflecting on Airtable's Founding and Evolution (00:33:23) Airtable's Approach to Customer Engagement and Innovation (00:39:59) The Impact of AI on Platform Versatility and Market Penetration (00:46:00) Achieving Product-Market Fit and Initial Monetization (00:50:23) Scaling Up and Securing the First Unicorn Round (00:51:52) Rapid Growth and Organizational Scaling Challenges (00:55:00) Reflecting on Tough Decisions in the Business (01:02:55) The Role of Capital Allocation in Expanding Airtable (01:06:55) The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Ever Done For Howie

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    Mark Groden - The Future of Flying - [Invest Like the Best, EP.374]
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    My guest today is Nico Wittenborn. Nico is the founder of Adjacent, a venture firm that looks for what he describes as the “adjacent possible” for their next investment. Nico has zoned in on the consumer subscription market as his ideal candidate, making early investments in Calm App, Photoroom, and Oura Ring. Nico does virtually all steps of the investing process on his own as he believes this allows him to be as close to finding the truth as possible. We discuss sharpening your intuition, evaluating the subscription business model, and exploring the adjacent possible. Please enjoy this conversation with Nico Wittenborn.  Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:30) Intuition in Investment Decisions (00:05:08) The Philosophy of Adjacency in Venture Capital (00:12:51) Exploring Consumer Subscription Models (00:18:16) Common Mistakes In Subscription Pricing (00:22:41) Errors in Product Roll-Out Strategy (00:28:50) The Sucess of BirdBuddy (00:33:45) What It Means To Be a Great Product (00:38:21) Solo Investing vs. Being Part of a Big Firm (00:43:12) Building On Your Own Experience As a Founder (00:44:49) The Rise of Individual Investors and Their Impact (00:50:52) The Strategic Advantage of Staying Small in Venture Capital (00:52:02) Deep Dive into Founder Questions and Consumer Subscription Insights (00:54:09) Leveraging AI and Technological Advances for Growth (00:59:13) Exploring Future Investments and Market Opportunities (01:05:13) Areas to Explore On The Value Curve For Consumer Subscription  (01:12:32) Advice For Those Interest In Nico’s Path  (01:20:10) The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Ever Done for Nico

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