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    Motley Fool Money: 02.21.2014

    enFebruary 21, 2014

    Podcast Summary

    • Effective communication skills and Facebook's acquisition of WhatsAppFacebook's acquisition of WhatsApp for $19 billion highlights the importance of effective communication skills and social media in business.

      Effective communication skills are essential in business and life, and the Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast can help you hone these skills. Meanwhile, in the world of business, Facebook's acquisition of WhatsApp for $19 billion is a significant move reflecting the growing importance of social media and Facebook's strategy to capture a larger share of the time people spend online. Despite the massive price tag, some argue it's a smart investment for Facebook, given the app's large user base and the increasing trend of internet users spending more time on social media.

    • Investing in Social Media: Beyond ProfitsFacebook's market value is reasonable considering its potential user base, but the industry is shifting towards user metrics. Companies like Groupon face tough competition in goods sales, while Tesla Motors sees success with better-than-expected results and impressive gross margins.

      The market value of Facebook, with its potential to add over 19 billion new users, may seem daunting at $170 billion, but at $42 per user, it's not an unreasonable investment when considering the long-term trend of social media growth. However, the industry is shifting towards focusing on user metrics beyond traditional profit-driven ones, which could impact the stock market. Meanwhile, companies like Groupon, which reported a loss and weak guidance, face tough competition in moving into goods sales against industry giants like Amazon and eBay. Tesla Motors, on the other hand, is seeing success with better-than-expected 4th quarter results and a 55% increase in vehicle deliveries, boasting impressive gross margins of 28%. While diversifying revenue streams is important, entering competitive markets against industry leaders can be a challenging road ahead.

    • Tesla's Success Outpacing Analysts' ExpectationsTesla's expanding into lower-priced markets may cause temporary gross margin decrease, but their current luxury line will maintain high margins for next few years. Panera's tech investments could lead to long-term growth despite short-term lower guidance.

      Tesla's continued success may outpace analysts' expectations, leading to higher production numbers and potentially increasing gross margins, despite concerns about expanding into lower-priced markets. Meanwhile, Panera Bread's lower guidance for the current quarter due to bad weather and investments in technology might be causing some concern, but the long-term potential of these improvements could outweigh the short-term impact. Apple's past experience of analysts constantly playing catch-up with the company's growth may be repeating itself with Tesla. While Tesla's gross margins might decrease when they introduce lower-priced models, they should remain high in the next few years due to their current line of luxury vehicles. Panera Bread's decision to invest in technology and improve the customer experience could lead to long-term growth, despite the short-term impact of lower guidance.

    • Companies in the housing industry bounce backTile Shop Holdings and Lumber Liquidators experienced stock increases after reporting strong earnings and addressing concerns, highlighting their growth potential despite controversies.

      Despite some setbacks and controversies, companies in the housing industry like Tile Shop Holdings and Lumber Liquidators continue to perform well and show growth potential. The stock prices for these companies had been affected by negative reports, but recent earnings reports and positive business news have led to relief rallies and stock bounces. For example, Tile Shop Holdings saw a 12% increase in shares after reporting better-than-expected sales and addressing concerns about sourcing practices. Similarly, Lumber Liquidators reported impressive 48% quarterly profit growth and strong sales numbers, despite ongoing investigations related to sourcing. Overall, these companies' strong business fundamentals and growth prospects are helping to outweigh any negative headlines.

    • Under Armour manages PR crisis with US speed skating teamUnder Armour renews partnership with US speed skating team for 8 more years, demonstrating relationship management and team confidence in brand's equipment. Prices of crucial commodity rising, boding well for Under Armour. SINA reports earnings, taps China market opportunity. Panera focuses on tech, expansion potential.

      Under Armour effectively managed a PR crisis with the US speed skating team's underperformance at the Olympics. The team decided to continue their partnership with Under Armour, renewing their deal for another 8 years. This move not only demonstrates Under Armour's ability to maintain relationships but also highlights the team's confidence in the brand's equipment. Additionally, the rising prices of zinc, a commodity crucial to Under Armour's products, bodes well for the company. Meanwhile, SINA, the "Twitter of China," is another stock to watch as it reports earnings and continues to tap into China's massive market opportunity for microblogging services. Panera Bread, a long-time favorite investment for some, also showed promise this quarter with its focus on restaurant operations technology and potential for store expansion.

    • Tesla's Disruption and Surprising GrowthInvestors see Tesla as a great business with a visionary leader, disregarding short-term challenges and focusing on long-term growth potential.

      Tesla Motors, a company that has faced opposition from traditional automotive competitors and even state legislatures, continues to surprise and deliver impressive growth, with shares hitting an all-time high and the stock up over 400% in the last 12 months. For investors like David Gardner, the focus is not just on the latest earnings report or even the next one, but on being a part owner of a great business with a visionary leader. The presence of enemies, in this case, can be seen as a potential buy signal, indicating that Tesla is disrupting the status quo and serving customers in new and innovative ways.

    • Impact of visionary leaders on stock marketVisionary leaders and disruptive companies can significantly impact the stock market, even if there are changes in leadership or industry challenges. Keeping a long-term perspective and focusing on companies with strong visions and leaders can lead to substantial returns.

      Visionary leaders and disruptive companies, like Elon Musk and Tesla, can significantly impact the stock market. These leaders often have a significant stake in their companies and continue to shape their vision even if they step down from their day-to-day roles. Companies like Netflix, Amazon, and Zillow have disrupted industries and faced skepticism, but have ultimately proven their value. As investors, it's essential to keep an eye on these visionaries and their companies, even if there are changes in leadership or industry challenges. The stock market can be unpredictable, but keeping a long-term perspective and focusing on companies with strong visions and leaders can lead to substantial returns.

    • Focus on future potential, not short-term dropsSuccessful long-term investing involves diversification, looking beyond short-term market fluctuations for buying opportunities, and focusing on companies with promising futures.

      While short-term market fluctuations can be intriguing, successful long-term investing focuses on the future potential of companies rather than recent events. The speaker, who manages two stock recommendation services, emphasizes the importance of a diversified portfolio and looking beyond short-term drops for buying opportunities. He also mentions that there's no guarantee that a stock will perform better after a 10% drop than after a 10% rise. Instead, he suggests considering companies with promising futures, such as Yelp and Michael Kors, which have been recommended in his premium services.

    • Focus on market winners and be patient with long-term growth opportunitiesSuccessful investors like David Gardner prioritize investing in market winners and have patience for long-term growth, even if a stock isn't currently profitable. Twitter, with its massive user base and potential for growth, is an example of a worthwhile long-term investment opportunity.

      Successful investors like David Gardner often focus on finding and investing in market winners, rather than selling when a stock reaches a high point. Gardner emphasizes that winners tend to keep winning and that the stock market looks forward, not backward. He also highlighted Twitter as a potential long-term investment opportunity despite its current lack of profitability, citing its massive global user base, relevance, and potential for growth. The market, Gardner explained, can be patient with companies that are building out their footprint and have significant optionality. Twitter, with its role as a platform for news, celebrity engagement, and advertising, is worth over $31 billion and offers a big opportunity for growth.

    • Embrace unique talents and contributions, even if they emerge later in lifeFind your comparative advantage and add value to the world, even if it's not what you initially planned or expected

      People, including ourselves, can pivot in life and discover our unique value and calling later in life. Elon Musk, for instance, had a clear vision of electric cars since his youth, but many of us may not have such clarity from the start. The interviewer shared his own experience of a colleague, David Gardner, who initially aspired to write the great American novel but later found his comparative advantage in investing and educating others about it. This concept of comparative advantage is rooted in economics, where individuals or entities find what they can offer that adds the most value to the world. While the world may have plenty of great novelists, it still lacks individuals who can effectively navigate the stock market. Gardner humorously quips that he might not be a great stock picker, but he hopes he does it better than writing sentences. This reminder to embrace our unique talents and contributions, even if they emerge later in life, is a valuable lesson for us all.

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    Create Your Investing Profile & Share It on Savvy Trader w/ Hamid Shojaee BRT S03 EP58 (157) 11-20-2022

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    What We Learned This Week

    • Savvy Trader allows you to share your portfolio
    • Investing Track Record - see how people actually invest & their results
    • Why Software is Such a Good Business Model, Build 1x, sell multiple X
    • VCs want to see Traction in Startups
    • Cost of Customer Acquisition (CAC) & Long term Value of a Custer (LTV) are critical in scaling a startup long term, how much does it cost to get a customer, and how long do you keep them 

     

     

     

    Guests: Hamid Shojaee AZ Tech Beat

    https://aztechbeat.com/

    https://azdisruptors.com/

    https://www.azcowork.com/         

    Hamid talks all thing AZ tech, Startups and what the world of an Angel Investor really looks like. His 2 decades + of experience is laid out, from starting and running software companies, plus exited the industry to now an Angel Investor mentoring the next generation of Startups.

    Hamid (Founder of Axosoft and Pure Chat) has always had a passion in helping Arizona's up-and-coming tech talent. Since 2010, Hamid has been involved with various AZ tech initiatives, including bringing tech founder and CEOs together, investing in startups and helping push the #YesPHX community forward.

    Axosoft – software tools for software development

    PureChat – live chat software for websites

    Hamid is a 20 year + software veteran who’s built four different multi-million dollar SaaS products in the last twenty years. He recently sold two software companies, Axosoft and Pure Chat, and has been advising and investing in Arizona-based startups for nearly a decade. He recently announced he’ll be investing $10 million in promising Arizona tech startups. Hamid is also host of the AZ Tech Podcast, where he interviews Arizona’s most successful founders, investors and doers.

    AZ Disruptors is founded by Hamid Shojaee (@hamids) and Lawdan Shojaee (@lawdan) as a vehicle to invest in for-profit companies that want to make the world a better place, with a geographical focus on Arizona’s tech ecosystem. Working with startups and investing (20 companies). The criteria listed on the website for a Startup to be considered for investment.

    AZ CoWork was founded by Hamid and Lawdan Shojaee as a way to support and foster the next generation of fast-growing tech companies in Arizona. They designed the 12,000 square-foot space, which conveniently sits directly below Axosoft and PureChat, to cater specifically towards tech startups through hosting various local startup groups and events, providing mentorship opportunities, and cultivating a community of like-minded founders. 

    AZ Tech Beat is Arizona’s online news source for everything related to technology and science. We aim to highlight the efforts of the talented Arizonans trying to make a positive impact in the world. We also produce AZ Tech Podcast (https://aztechbeat.com/category/podcast/), a weekly show featuring conversations with some of Arizona’s most interesting founders, investors, scientists and other doers. Covers the AZ Startup community, the struggles and people involved. Find the podcast library here, watch the interviews on YouTube or listen on your favorite podcast app.

    AZ Tech Beat is founded by Hamid Shojaee and financially supported by the Shojaee Foundation. Stories are written and reported by Adrienne St. Clair (@agestclair) and Abby Sharpe (@byabbysharpe).

     

     

    https://savvytrader.com/

    What is Savvy Trader?

    Create

    Create a virtual portfolio of your stocks and crypto. Buy or sell your investments at any time to keep your portfolio up to date.

    Share

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    Notify

    Notify your subscribers when you make a trade. Savvy Trader will send a text or email to everyone subscribed to your portfolio.

     

    Savvy Trader is on a mission to make investment information more accessible.

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    Notes:

     

    Seg 1

    Hamid has a long history in tech, 20+ years and software. Sold his company in 2020.

    Software is a great and unique business model. You can build the software utility one time and then sell it many times. Build 1x, sell it many x

    The cost is with the software development team, and heavy costs upfront. There is very little traditional capEx long term, as you do not need to build multiple physical products.

    It does not matter if you have one customer, 10,000 customers, or 1,000,000+ customers, all costs the same.

    It is a high margin business with lower expenses, and now you can manage it and host it in the cloud.

    The classic Marc Andreessen quote software will eat in the world

    There is a high bar on user experience which is why you need the best software engineers and they cost a lot of money. With those engineers you can build a great product and scale to millions of users. You will always have the cost of the team on going with maintenance & upgrades needed to the software.

    Software is a never done story, you’re always in development. With some small start ups the founder may be the developer and now you’re just talking the cost of their time and the opportunity cost.

    Venture capitalist want to see traction in a start up, they want the graph to go up into the right. VC are looking for the ability to scale and have a product that can play in a big market.

    VC is looking for the type of market to 10x their invested money, get an ROI to make it worth their time. VC makes many bets because most of them fail, and they need their few successes to be large.

    VC looking for that start up that can become a unicorn, as guy Kawasaki said it is unique and valuable.

    Question does the market or the product come first?

    Hamid built Savvy Trader to solve a problem. He had looked for a solution and could not find it.

     

    Seg 2

    Savvy Trader - what is your performance? Track your portfolio online

    Internet of investing w s Wild West, No idea what peoples track record is

    Get ideas or virtual portfolio to learn, can use portfolio to teach people with case study

    Skin in the game - where people put $

    Follow investors online, know if full of crap or not, not cherry picking winners, and post with survivor bias. Hamid portfolio is down in 2022 and you can see it

    Long time investor in the Buffett mode

    Investment style - buy cos you know and understand

    Good valuation, market cap not ridiculous

    What is the revenue? Any profit? Strong financials vs market cap

    Investing is 10% identifying cos to buy and 90% wait, as can’t impact outcome

    Could be years before know if investing choice was right

    Pandemic valuations during 2020 were way too high.

    Case study of looking at investment potential.

    Apple is a $2 trillion company so there is diminished potential to have a 10x return as it would then need to become a $20 trillion company. When a company is so large it is hard to move the needle.

    The entire stock market valuation is $46 trillion. Netflix is $128 billion company so 10 X is Plausible through user growth, ad revenue, and raising rates.

    Micro cap stocks are smaller companies with higher risk but the potential to 10x. You want to look for stocks with the potential of growth, that not have not achieve success yet.

     

    Seg 3

    Hamid owns Tesla, Netflix, FB, Uber

    How to think about diversification, Hamid makes 2 to 3 bigger bats in the past when is risk tolerance was higher, now it is lower so he makes 4 to 5 bets. If you have too much diversification, your returns will be subdued.

    Facebook stock as a case study, over the short term the market over reacts and is very emotional. the.com boom and bust of 2000 or the 2008 housing market crash, or current 2022 and people are sour on tech stocks.

    Netflix stock was $600 in late 2021 and drop two as low as 170 in the summer of 2022. Financially Netflix lost 1 million users or a half a percent of their 200 million user base. Contrast that the stock lost 70% of its value. It has rebounded back up to 310.

    Market over reacts on the highs and lows stocks are over bought of times and then oversold.

    Facebook was at 380 in late 2021, and now is at 100 in the fall of 2022. Seems like Facebook is at a discount? Did the market overreact or did Mark Zuckerberg become an idiot overnight? Same people bought Facebook at $300 plus and then sold it at 150.

    Stock analyst give buy ratings to stocks when they’re at their high and sell ratings when they’re at that low. Analyst seem to follow momentum.

    Some selling in the market creates more selling. This has to do with momentum and fund managers who have to dump losers, boat with high speed traders selling.

     

    Seg 4

    Tesla stock has seen a bomb in the last few years. Turns out the retail investor was right for a stock analyst who would recommend Tesla to be sold.

    Tesla has 70% of the EV market. SpaceX is building reusable rockets, a feet that even NASA could not do. Obviously Musk knows something.

    Facebook has 2 billion users daily and is still making billions and add revenue. When you’re investing in the start up world anymore diversification versus public markets has 80% of startups fail. You need the one or two that succeed to vastly make up for the money invested in all start ups.

    Hamid advises founders on a limited basis. Common piece of advice is that they’re going to need a long runway, and it will be difficult to raise money in the current environment. He believes there will be less start ups being created with huge money behind them in 2023.

    More start ups will fail in 2023. Cost of money / debt is higher. On the positive side there may be less competition for start ups. hamid personally saw some unreal valuations over the last year.

    One example is he was offered to invest in a company that claim their own valuation was at $1 billion when they only had $17 million in sales. Early stage start ups are not expected to have a valuation, sales or profitability. Later on though your valuation goes hand-in-hand with revenue. Expected valuations are 3x to 7x of revenues.

    FTX downfall was through exuberance. At one point they were rumored to be buying more Robin Hood as well as other crypto companies. Their exchange always seemed a little shady, like a black box with no info on financials, no one knew what was behind the veil.

    It’s a common red flag if a company is churning through cash too quickly.

    Uber was the company at one point that had serious churn in the beginning, but now seems to be a better investment. They are profitable and seem to be sustainable. Uber customers will stay just like Netflix they’re likely not to cancel. The cost of the customer acquisition plus the lifetime value of the customer is very solid.

    Uber valuation is 62 billion with limited profitability right now. Oddly enough it’s a lower market cap than it was five years ago when I wasn’t profitable at all.

    value investors get frustrated with tech valuations being so wide-eyed.

    Uber will continue to grow, as now it has three revenue sources. It makes money from the rides, the eats, and the freight division. The eats plus freight division is a little over half their income and actually more income for us the rides.

    Per Elon Mosk Robo taxis will be available in the next five years which will make rideshare is bigger. This may not happen in five years but likely in the future.

    Uber CEO Dara K ran Expedia prior to Uber so obviously you know something about running a big company. Uber followed the same story as Google did 20 years ago when they needed to hire an adult in the room, professional manager. This mirrors when Google hired Eric Schmidt.

     

     

     

     

    Tech Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Tech-Startup-VC-Cybersecurity-Energy-Science

     

    ‘Best Of’ Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+of+BRT

     

    Thanks for Listening.

    Please Subscribe to the BRT Podcast. 

     

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    The show where EntrepreneursHigh Level Executives, Business Owners, and Investors come to share insight and ideas about the future of businessBRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, and how classic industries are evolving

    Common Topics Discussed: Business, Entrepreneurship, Investing, Stocks, Cannabis, Tech, Blockchain / Crypto, Real Estate, Legal, Sales, Charity, and more… 

    BRT Podcast Home Page: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/

    ‘Best Of’ BRT Podcast: Click Here

    BRT Podcast on Google: Click Here

    BRT Podcast on Spotify: Click Here                   

    More Info: https://www.economicknight.com/podcast-brt-home/

    KFNX Info: https://1100kfnx.com/weekend-featured-shows/

     

    Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.

     

     

    Stock Hypers Episode 16 Is the bubble about to burst

    Stock Hypers Episode 16 Is the bubble about to burst

    Stock Hypers Episode 16 Danny and Bryan dive into Stay at home stocks

    Hype or Hate segment : Danny -Tesla, JD, Walmart. Bryan -Ford, Zoom, Uber

    Stock Hypers are amateur investors talking about stocks, wall street, business and the markets from a completely uninformed, unprofessional, sometimes nonsensical perspective. Danny and Bryan both are not recommending or pressuring you to buy any stock. If you take their advise you may loose money, your reputation and all your friends. This is meant for pure entertainment and listening pleasure. (Even if all our stocks go skyrocketing in value and we become zillionaires it's best that you, the listener, keep your money in your pocket. We may sound like geniuses but we are just regular Joes) You are forewarned.

    Feel free to contact the Stock Hypers at stockhypers@gmail.com

     

    Financial Reflections and Projections, Elon's Ousting, and the Keys to Riches© with Guest Co-host Jim Woods

    Financial Reflections and Projections, Elon's Ousting, and the Keys to Riches© with Guest Co-host Jim Woods

    Jim Woods, Renaissance Man, Market Analyst, and regular show contributor joins Heather Wagenhals again to kickoff Season Two of Unlock Your Wealth Today.

    Watch Jim and Heather verbally engage with stock market talk, FreedomFest reminiscing, economic outlook, and why the first key in the Keys to Riches© Financial Philosophy is so critical to achieving financial freedom, it's a must see.

    Unlock Your Wealth Today and Heather Wagenhals gives you the tools and resources to increase your Wealth, Health, Wisdom, and Pleasurable pursuits.

    Who's On:

    Market Analyst Jim Woods

    Jim Woods is a 20-plus-year veteran of the markets with varied experience as a broker, hedge fund trader, financial writer, author, newsletter editor and contributor to numerous financial outlets. He’s also a decorated special forces veteran, experienced horseman, motorcycle enthusiast and poet. Jim’s unique blend of experiences gives him a world view unlike any other, one which led him to become the #5 stock picker in the world (out of 6,278 experts), according to Tipranks.com. 

    Jim is the editor of Intelligence Report, Successful Investing, Fast Money Alert and The Deep Woods newsletter advisory publications.

    His books include co-authoring, “Billion Dollar Green: Profit from the Eco Revolution,” and “The Wealth Shield: How to Invest and Protect Your Money from Another Stock Market Crash, Financial Crisis or Global Economic Collapse.” He’s also ghostwritten many books and articles, as well as edited content for some of the investment industry’s biggest luminaries.

    His articles have appeared on many leading financial websites, including StockInvestor.com, InvestorPlace.com, Main Street Investor, MarketWatch, Street Authority, Human Events, Townhall.com and many others.

    What's Shared:

    • Reflections on Jim's predictions and Q3 performance
    • Q4 projections
    • SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh credit concerns and unforseen scandals
    • Tesla debate and recent controversy with Elon Musk and the SEC
    • Facebook data breach and shareholder concerns
    • ...and so much more!

    Learn More with Resource Links:

    WayOfTheRenaissanceMan.com

    MoneyCreditAndYou.com

    UnlockYourWealth.com

    SevenSellingSecrets.com

    Jim Woods Investing

    This Week's Key:

    Key 01-Acceptance and Affirmation with Jim Woods' take on this week's Key

    Join us Mondays at 9AM Pacific for our Unlock Your Wealth LIVE show at our Facebook fan page http://fb.com/UnlockYourWealthTodayTV
    You can hop on the show and directly ask questions!

    Special Offers:

    Get your FREE book from our sponsor Audible at AudibleTrial.com/UnlockYourWealth and click on the link to choose from over 150,000 titles for your iPhone, Android, Kindle or MP3 Player!

    Join us on Instagram ( http://Instagram.com/UnlockYourWealth ) Wednesdays at 7:30 PM Eastern where Heather shares her mid-week update! also follow @unlockyourwealth so you always know every time Heather does the new broadcast. For free tools and resources, give Heather an inbox message after each show for the complimentary resource she offers. FREE is GOOD! Do it now!

    Tags:

    Personal finance, ID theft, wealth, health, wisdom, luxury lifestyle, pleasurable pursuits, millionaires, keys to riches, money, credit, investing, heather wagenhals, jim woods, renaissance man, renaissance woman, Elon Musk, Tesla, Facebook, Investors, stock market, market analyst, jim woods investing, investing

    What is sustainable investing and why should you care?

    What is sustainable investing and why should you care?
    Can you make money while also making the world a better place? In this episode, we explore sustainable investing – what it is, why it's important, how companies are rated, and whether the returns stack up to other investments. You'll also learn how fund managers influence boards on sustainability, and why energy consumption isn't the only factor in determining the sustainability of crypto investments. Listen now and upgrade your knowledge.