Podcast Summary
Insights from early vote numbers and the importance of volunteering: Early vote data shows who's turning out and it's crucial for listeners to volunteer for Democratic campaigns to ensure every voter turns out, despite Trump's disregard for public health and safety.
During the latest episode of Pod Save America, the hosts discussed various topics related to the 2020 election, including insights from early vote numbers, the impact of the Supreme Court takeover on the election, and the importance of volunteering in the final days of the campaign. Tom Bonier shared interesting insights from his political data firm about who is voting in the early numbers. The hosts also addressed the controversy surrounding President Trump's rallies and his disregard for public health, as evidenced by his leaving supporters stranded in freezing weather after a rally. The takeaway is that while the election is entering its final days, it's crucial for listeners to get involved and volunteer for Democratic campaigns to ensure every voter turns out. Trump's actions, such as his disregard for public health and safety, demonstrate a lack of concern for his supporters.
Politics over Public Health: The Trump administration and GOP's actions during the pandemic and Supreme Court confirmation process show disregard for public health and the rule of law, prioritizing political power over the nation's well-being.
The actions of the Trump administration and the Republican party, as exemplified by the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett and the handling of COVID-19, demonstrate a blatant disregard for public health and the rule of law. The vice president's decision to hold large crowd events despite the spike in COVID cases in Wisconsin, and the president's own contraction of the virus, highlight a dangerous disregard for the health and safety of the American people. Additionally, the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court at a super spreader event and her subsequent participation in a campaign photo op, despite the potential implications for cases that could impact the president's reelection, raises serious concerns about her impartiality and commitment to the law. These actions underscore the prioritization of political power over the well-being of the nation.
Impact of Justice Amy Coney Barrett on 2020 Presidential Election: Justice Barrett's confirmation raises concerns about potential rulings affecting mail-in ballots in key states. Voters must ensure they deliver their ballots in person to avoid missing deadlines.
The confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has raised concerns about potential rulings that could impact the 2020 presidential election. John Roberts, a previous Chief Justice, has been criticized for decisions that have benefited the Republican party, such as Citizens United and the gutting of the Voting Rights Act. Roberts and other conservative justices are seen as having ideologies that are harmful to certain groups, but are consistent within their conservative worldview. Justice Barrett, a recent addition to the court, has been asked to recuse herself from a case regarding mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania due to potential conflicts of interest, but there are no rules requiring her to do so. The immediate concern is that voters may not be aware of changing rules regarding mail-in ballots and may miss the deadline. It is important for voters to personally deliver their ballots to drop boxes or county elections offices in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to ensure they are counted.
Kavanaugh's views on election laws and Supreme Court power: Kavanaugh's stance on election laws and the Supreme Court's role could grant it veto power, risking minority rule. His past actions and comments add to concerns.
Brett Kavanaugh's views on election laws and the role of the Supreme Court could potentially give the court veto power over state interpretations, raising concerns about the court becoming a tool for minority rule. Kavanaugh's past actions and statements, such as his involvement in Bush v Gore and his comments on late-arriving ballots, add to this concern. The Supreme Court, as currently insulated from political change, is a valuable asset for parties looking to maintain power despite representing fewer voters. Kavanaugh's opinion, filled with factual inaccuracies, further highlights the need for careful consideration of the potential long-term implications of his views.
Supreme Court's Role in Election is a Call to Action: The Supreme Court can't decide the election outcome, but our votes can. Stay informed and determined to make a difference.
While there are concerns about the Supreme Court's role in the election, ultimately, the power to decide the outcome lies with the American people. Donald Trump cannot "seal" the election, and the Supreme Court can only intervene if we allow it. Instead of being intimidated, we should use this as motivation to turn out and vote. The Supreme Court's actions should be a call to action, not a reason to give up. We can't control what the Supreme Court does, but we can control whether we vote. By staying informed and determined, we can ensure that our voices are heard and that our votes count. It's important to remember that hope is about believing we can make a difference, and if we turn out in large numbers, we can determine the outcome of the election.
Democrats in a Strong Position According to Polling Data: The latest polling data shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump significantly, with many voters already having cast their ballots, indicating a positive trend for Democrats and the need to focus on reaching out to voters and analyzing effective messaging.
Despite the unpredictability of the 2020 election and the antics of President Trump on social media, there is reason for confidence and hope among Democrats. According to the latest polling data, Joe Biden is currently leading Donald Trump by a significant margin, and this trend is consistent with past elections and achievements. The poll also revealed that a large number of voters have already cast their ballots, reducing the number of undecided voters. The main objective of the poll was to identify which news stories are breaking through to different types of voters and their impact on the race. The poll results suggest that Democrats should focus on the instructive information and continue their efforts to reach out to voters, particularly those who did not vote in 2016. The poll also highlighted the importance of analyzing what gets through to voters, rather than just focusing on the horse race. Overall, the data indicates that Democrats are in a strong position heading into the final days of the election, but they cannot take anything for granted and must continue working hard to ensure victory.
The final stretch of a campaign is crucial and Biden is currently winning the message war: Voters are closely following the news, particularly issues like the Supreme Court confirmation, debates, record early turnout, and COVID cases, which are making them feel more negative about Trump than Biden. Trump supporters, especially those who get their news from Fox, are more engaged but less informed about news related to Trump himself.
The final stretch of a campaign is crucial in determining the momentum of a candidate, and the latest poll indicates that Biden is currently winning the message war. Voters are paying close attention to the news, and the issues they are most engaged with, such as the Supreme Court confirmation, the debate, record early turnout, and the new spike in COVID cases, are making them feel more negative about Trump than Biden. Additionally, Trump voters, particularly those who get most of their news from Fox, are living in their own information universe and are more engaged in the news than non-Fox watching Republicans. However, they are less informed about news related to Trump himself. These findings highlight the importance of media consumption and its impact on voter sentiment.
Fox News Audience Less Informed, More Exposed to Disinformation: Fox News' right-wing audience was less informed about real news stories during the 2020 election but more exposed to disinformation. This media bubble could give the Republican Party an advantage in future political battles.
The Fox News audience, primarily made up of Trump voters, were less informed about real news stories shaping the 2020 election compared to non-Fox viewers. Meanwhile, they were more exposed to disinformation about Hunter Biden and other issues prioritized by the right-wing media. This highlights Fox News' role as a propaganda network, deliberately hiding negative information about Trump from its audience. Conversely, non-Fox viewers were more informed about Trump's Chinese bank account, his chant about Governor Whitmer, and his criticism of Dr. Fauci. The poll also revealed that Trump voters saw issues like Hunter Biden's laptop and alleged Democratic radicalization as the biggest problems facing America, overshadowing COVID-19. This media bubble created by Fox News could give the Republican Party an advantage in future political battles. However, in the 2020 election, COVID-19's all-consuming nature made it difficult for Fox News to change the subject effectively. Despite this, it is crucial for progressives to address the issue of right-wing media dominance in shaping the political narrative for the long term.
Facebook's Impact on News Landscape and Disinformation: Progressives need to invest in countervailing forces on social media and engage voters with real information, while recognizing the potential decrease in effectiveness of texting and phone banking as the election approaches.
The role of social media, particularly Facebook, in shaping the news landscape and spreading disinformation is a significant issue that progressives need to address. Despite efforts from mainstream media to combat Republican disinformation, Facebook's overwhelming push of right-wing content poses a major challenge. With an increasing number of voters getting their news from Facebook, it can override the efforts of traditional media and potentially influence elections. Progressives need to invest in building a countervailing force to complement, not replace, traditional media, and engage audiences with real information rather than fear, anger, and misinformation. As for texting and phone banking, their effectiveness may decrease as we get closer to the election and the pool of undecided voters shrinks, leading to more hostile interactions. However, it's crucial to keep engaging voters, even if the conversations become more challenging.
Volunteering in the final days of a campaign can make a big impact: Volunteering in the final days of a campaign, even if met with opt-outs or hostile responses, can help reach undecided or infrequent voters and potentially impact the outcome.
Every contact made with potential voters, whether it's through phone banking or texting, can make a significant impact on a campaign, especially in the final days. Volunteers should not be discouraged by high opt-out rates or hostile responses, as these voters are often from the undecided or infrequent voter pool. On Election Day, instead of doom scrolling on Twitter, volunteers are encouraged to stay productive by volunteering to help get out the vote. Florida is a crucial state to watch, as it is expected to provide early results and could potentially determine the outcome of the election. If Biden wins Florida, it is likely that he will secure the presidency, but there are still paths for him to win without it. Jacksonville, specifically Duval County, is a significant area for Democratic votes in Florida.
Understanding Provisional Ballots and Analyzing Early Vote Data: Provisional ballots have specific rules in each state. Bringing your mail-in ballot to vote in person can prevent a provisional vote. Wear Vote Save America merchandise but avoid electioneering. TargetSmart analyzes early vote data beyond raw totals, focusing on infrequent, first-time, and sporadic voters using a national voter file.
The rules for counting provisional ballots vary by state, and it's crucial to understand the specific regulations in your area. For instance, if you request a mail-in ballot but decide to vote in person, you may need to bring your mail ballot with you to avoid casting a provisional vote. These ballots are counted later in the process. Additionally, wearing Vote Save America merchandise to the polls is allowed, but avoid electioneering by not urging others to vote for a particular candidate close to the polling place. Regarding early vote data analysis, TargetSmart, a democratic political strategist and analytics firm, goes beyond just raw vote totals by party registration. They focus on infrequent voters, first-time voters, and sporadic voters, as these groups played a significant role in past elections. TargetSmart builds a national voter file with extensive information on registered voters, including their past voting behavior, which is a critical factor in their analysis.
New voters are turning out in large numbers for the 2020 US elections: Younger voters and traditionally underrepresented groups are engaging at higher levels, potentially changing the electorate significantly, with Democrats showing greater intensity and engagement than Republicans.
The early voting data for the 2020 US elections is revealing some significant trends that could impact the outcome of the election. The data shows that a large number of new voters, who didn't vote in 2016, have already cast their ballots. This could potentially change the electorate significantly, as younger voters are engaging at higher levels and groups like African American seniors are turning out in larger numbers. While turnout is up across the board, Democrats are showing greater intensity and engagement than Republicans. It's important to note that the data also indicates that African American seniors, a group that stayed home in 2016, are now surpassing their entire 2016 turnout in some key states. These trends, along with others, suggest that the electorate could look very different in 2020 compared to 2016.
Democrats have early voting advantage in battleground states: Young voters, non-college educated whites key indicators to watch in upcoming days for potential election day deficit for Republicans
Democrats currently hold a significant early voting advantage over Republicans in battleground states, with new voters and sporadic voters contributing to this lead. This could result in a potential deficit for Republicans that they would need to make up on election day. Young voters are also turning out in larger numbers and a larger share of the electorate compared to 2016. Encouraging signs have emerged for younger black and Latino voters, who historically have had lower turnout rates. The next few days will provide a clearer picture of the depth of the hole President Trump will need to dig himself out of on election day. Key indicators to watch include the turnout of non-college educated white voters, who form a crucial part of Trump's base.
College-educated white voters gap for Biden: Biden underperforms 2016 with college-educated whites but offsets it with gains among independents, seniors, and some Republican voters. Older non-voters in 2016 are a significant factor in 2020.
The number of college-educated white voters who have voted for Biden is about 15 million less than in 2016, which is a significant gap. However, Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton among independents and even some Republican voters, which could offset this deficit. Another important factor is the large number of older voters, specifically those over 65, who did not vote in 2016 but have already voted in this election. The outcome of the election will depend on the turnout in key areas, particularly rural and wider areas in decisive states. Another question is the impact of new Republican registrants and their voting behavior. While Republicans have been registering more voters during the pandemic, it remains to be seen how many of these new registrants will actually vote and at what rate. Overall, the analysis suggests that Biden is performing better than in the past with various groups, including independents, white college-educated voters, and even some white non-college educated voters and seniors. The steepness of the hill that Republicans will have to climb on election day remains to be seen.
Democrats are seeing high voter participation: Despite election uncertainty, Democrats are confident due to high voter turnout and engagement
While the outcome of the 2022 elections is uncertain, there is good news to report: people are voting, and Democrats are turning out in large numbers. During a discussion on Pod Save America, political analyst Tom Bondi shared insights on the potential voter turnout numbers needed for Democrats to secure wins in key races. Although the exact number of new voters and registrants required to tip the scales is unknown, Bondi expressed confidence in the high voter participation. The most reliable fact is the enthusiasm and engagement among Democrats. Pod Save America team expressed their excitement for the upcoming Friday episode, which will be their last pre-election episode before the results are in. The podcast is a production of Crooked Media, and is executive produced by Michael Martinez, with production support from Tanya Somenator, Katie Long, Roman Papa Dimitriou, Quinn Lewis, Brian Semmel, Caroline Reston, Alisa Gutierrez, Elijah Cohn, Narm El Konian, Yael Fried, and Milo Kim.
