Podcast Summary
Democratic super PAC targets specific voter demographics with ad spending: During the 2020 presidential election, Democratic super PAC Priorities USA is spending over $200 million on ads, highlighting the importance of specific voter demographics in deciding the election outcome.
During the 2020 presidential election, campaigns and super PACs are expected to spend a billion dollars on ads, with sophisticated models attempting to turn those dollars into election wins. Despite our attempts to obtain the campaigns' strategy spreadsheets, we couldn't get a definitive answer on who the most expensive voters are. However, Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, which is spending over $200 million on the presidential election, shared that they target specific demographics with their advertising efforts. While the exact identities of the most expensive voters remain a secret, the significant advertising spending underscores the importance of certain voter groups in deciding the outcome of the election.
Campaigns' TV ad spending patterns reveal strategic priorities: Understanding where campaigns allocate TV ad spending provides insights into their competitive priorities and the significance of certain states in the election landscape
Political campaigns' ad spending patterns can provide insights into their strategic priorities for winning elections. Focusing on TV ads, which account for approximately 60% of campaign spending, the United States can be viewed as a giant game board with campaigns allocating funds to various regions. For instance, Florida, with $133 million in TV ads, is a battleground state where both parties heavily invest due to its electoral significance. This arms race mentality drives up ad costs and overall spending. Understanding these spending trends can offer valuable insights into the competitive dynamics of the election landscape.
Determining Advertising Impact in Competitive Markets: Advertising impact increases in competitive markets, but the exact percentage to avoid being drowned out isn't definitive. Advertising analytics can help determine spending, but targeting strategies and effectiveness are complex issues.
In an advertising market where competitors clear out, your advertising messages have a greater impact. However, there isn't a definitive percentage required to avoid being drowned out. Advertising analytics can help determine how much money is being spent in specific television markets, but it's challenging to pinpoint exactly how campaigns arrive at those figures. Michael Beach, CEO of Crossray Media, uses proprietary software to help advertisers target specific voter demographics, but it's important to note that the effectiveness of these strategies can depend on geographic location. Swing voters, who might be influenced by political ads, are a difficult group to define precisely. While it's clear that significant resources are being invested in advertising, the specific targeting strategies and their effectiveness remain complex issues.
Identifying Top Campaign Ad Spending Markets using Michael Software: Michael Software identifies Erie, PA as a top market for campaign ad spending due to high concentration of swing voters reachable through sports programming, particularly Fox football shows or wrap-ups.
Michael Software's analysis identifies Erie, Pennsylvania, as a top market for campaign ad spending due to a high concentration of swing voters. These voters are six years younger than the average adult in Erie and can be effectively reached through sports programming, particularly Fox football shows or wrap-ups of the day's games. The software uses a generic party model to identify likely swing voters, filtering out consistent party supporters and focusing on those with a history of switching affiliations or first-time voters. By comparing the demographics and media consumption habits of the entire Erie population to that of likely swing voters, Michael's software provides valuable insights for campaign strategists looking to optimize their ad spending.
Scoring voters for political campaigns: Political campaigns use sophisticated methods to understand and target voters, scoring them based on their likelihood to support a candidate and turn out to vote, allowing for tailored messaging and resource allocation.
Political campaigns use sophisticated methods to understand and target voters beyond just swing voters. Professor Riot Ghani, a former chief data scientist for the Obama campaign, explained that every voter is scored based on their likelihood to support a candidate and their likelihood to turn out and vote. These scores help campaigns tailor their messaging and allocate resources effectively. While some ads aim to persuade voters to change their stance, others focus on mobilizing the base to turn out and vote. Additionally, there exists a third type of ad that may be more cynical in nature. Understanding these complexities provides valuable insight into the strategies employed by political campaigns during elections.
Targeting voters to demobilize them: Campaigns spend heavily to discourage voting in certain communities, creating a toxic political climate.
The political ads we've been seeing during this election cycle are not just aimed at swaying undecided voters or mobilizing supporters in battleground states. Instead, campaigns are targeting all voters, including those in seemingly unlikely places, with the goal of demobilizing them and discouraging them from voting. This strategy is particularly effective and costly in communities like Wausau, Wisconsin, where campaigns are spending nearly $40 per likely voter on television, radio, and social media ads. The intensity of the political climate in these areas has led to heightened acrimony and neighbor-against-neighbor conflict, creating a toxic environment that goes beyond simple annoyance. The ads themselves are often apocalyptic in nature, painting a dire picture of the consequences of not supporting a particular candidate. This strategy is a significant shift from past elections and underscores the importance of every vote in the current political landscape.
The Price of Political Ads: A Billion Dollars and a More Divided Nation: A billion dollars spent on political ads can change votes and outcomes, but also deepens political divisions among individuals and the country
Being one of the most expensive voters in the country means being bombarded by political ads, leading to deeper political divisions among individuals and the country as a whole. Despite the significant investment of a billion dollars in ad money, the outcome may include changed minds and votes, but also a more divided nation. If you're considering spending a billion dollars to influence the country's direction, reach out to us at planetmoney@npr.org. Our team, including Alexi Horwitz-Gazee, James Snead, Gilly Moon, Alex Goldmark, Bryant Ernstatt, Irina Huang, Erica Franklin Fowler, and Ben Tabor, produced this episode. The data on presidential ad spending was heroically dug up by our intern, Irina Huang. Listen to us on all social media platforms as Planet Money. I'm Kenny Malone, and I'm Keith Romer. This is NPR. Thanks for tuning in.
