Rafah, Egypt & the "Day After" - with Amos Harel

Complexity and challenges involved in the geopolitical situation between Israel, Palestine, and the international community. The speaker raises questions about the IDF's ability to move large populations in Gaza, Egypt's role, and the focus on Israel's lack of a day-after plan. Amos Harel, a leading military and defense analyst, provides insights into these issues. A recent development adding to the tension is the release of a video showing the abduction of five Israeli female soldiers by Hamas terrorists in October 2021. The video, obtained from GoPro cameras used by the terrorists, was only made public after one of them was killed in fighting with the IDF. The release of this video has caused shock and outrage in Israel and is the leading news story of the evening.

The events of October 7, 2000, at the Rafah refugee camp revealed the brutal use of sexual violence against women as a weapon of war by Hamas terrorists. This was not just reported through speeches and images but was caught on camera and broadcasted. Initially, Hamas was proud of their actions, but later it became a PR problem for them. There were widespread reports of sexual atrocities towards women during Hamas captivity, causing alarm in Israeli society. The release of graphic videos showing the terrorists' faces and bodies, covered in blood, adds to the shock and reality of the situation. Rafa, the symbol of the ongoing conflict, has become a flashpoint with significant political, military, diplomatic, and potentially legal dimensions. The international community, including the Biden administration, has expressed concern about the civilian population in Rafa, numbering around 1,300,000, and Israel's plans for military operations there. The challenge remains to find a solution that minimizes harm to civilians while addressing the underlying issues.

Despite initial concerns and predictions of chaos, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) successfully evacuated over 800,000 people from the densely populated Rafah area in Gaza in a seemingly orderly and quick manner. This is not the first time such an operation has been carried out, with similar evacuations happening in other areas of Gaza. The IDF's ability to deliver messages and convince people to leave has surprised many, including the Biden administration, which initially thought the process would take much longer. However, there are still 350,000 civilians in the area, and the danger remains due to the presence of bunkers, tunnels, and civilians living in close proximity to Hamas terrorists. Additionally, there is a risk of accidental casualties if Israel takes military action against areas where hostages are believed to be held. Despite this, the Rafah operation is no longer the top priority for the Americans, and Netanyahu is delivering on a promise to his political base. However, the outcome of the situation is still uncertain.

The debate over Israel's timeline for advancing on Rafa during the 2008-2009 Gaza War was complex and multifaceted, involving not only strategic considerations but also logistical challenges and diplomatic pressures from the US. Despite warnings of potential high casualties and quagmire situations, Israel ultimately proved the US wrong by making significant progress within a relatively short timeframe. However, the war as a whole was marked by a stop-start process, with Israel still searching for a clear strategic path. The enemy's use of civilian populations and extensive tunnel systems, as well as the long-term preparation for the conflict, added to the complexity of the situation.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has resulted in significant casualties and destruction, raising concerns about international diplomatic repercussions and the long-term nature of the conflict. Despite the Israeli Defense Forces' success in gradually defeating Hamas, achieving a decisive victory is unlikely in the near future. Israeli experts caution against unrealistic expectations of an immediate victory and warn of the potential costs and complexities of a full occupation of the Gaza Strip. The sensitivity of Israeli society to military casualties, combined with the unprecedented challenges of urban warfare, make this conflict harder than previous ones. While the IDF has proven that the warnings of disaster were not entirely unfounded, the international criticism and potential legal consequences of the massive destruction must be carefully considered.

There is a growing rift between Israel's security apparatus and its government, particularly regarding the handling of the conflict in Gaza. This was highlighted by the resignation of a National Security Council official, Yoam Haimovich, who criticized the current approach and recommended a change. The significance of this event lies in the fact that Haimovich's views align with those of many security experts, including former military leaders Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. The main issue is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is avoiding strategic discussions and instead focusing on prolonging the conflict, which could potentially lead to the resignation of Gantz and Eisenkot from the war cabinet. The situation is symbolic of a larger power struggle and could have significant implications for Israel's future approach to the Gaza conflict.

The situation surrounding the ongoing conflict in Israel and the blame game being played out in public is complex. Netanyahu's government is under fire for its handling of the war, with some within the security establishment accusing him of lacking a clear political objective. At the same time, there is growing evidence of the Israeli military's failure on October 7th, which led to the devastating results and the capture of two Israeli soldiers. Netanyahu has shifted the blame to others, but this does not absolve those in the military and intelligence services of their responsibility. The enormity of what happened on October 7th is hard to overstate, with the terrorists showing a shocking level of confidence and control over the situation. Despite the finger-pointing, it's essential to remember that the blame game does not excuse the devastating failure that occurred and the shame that many in the military feel.

The aftermath of the botched raid on a Palestinian militant compound in Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of 13 Israeli soldiers and 5 Palestinian militants in 2006, continues to haunt Israel. Despite feelings of shame and responsibility among military leaders, none have resigned or left office. The public is demanding accountability, but the political class, including former military leaders, have yet to accept it. Meanwhile, criticism of military spending cuts and lack of strategic planning over the years adds to the frustration. The Israeli people are growing increasingly disillusioned with their leaders and questioning the military's ability to handle a multi-front war. The focus should be on addressing these issues, but instead, there's a blame game between the security apparatus and the political class.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and various militant groups, such as Hamas in Gaza and potential threats from other fronts like Lebanon, Egypt, Iran, and Yemen, requires a more robust and long-term military strategy from Israel. The IDF was not adequately prepared for a prolonged multi-front war, as evidenced by the current situation approaching the 9th month of the conflict. The complex political landscape of the Middle East, with competing narratives and shifting alliances, makes it difficult to trust the intentions of neighboring countries like Egypt and Qatar. Egypt's reported sabotage of hostage deal negotiations and past complicity in weapons smuggling are just a few examples of the challenges Israel faces. To defend the country effectively, it's crucial for Israel to focus on adapting to this changing environment and strengthening its military capabilities.

The situation in Gaza, including the smuggling of weapons and supplies, was not solely Israel's problem but involved Egypt's complicity for years. Egypt not only allowed it but also profited from it. The construction of 350 miles of underground tunnels required significant resources, which came from Egypt. Egypt's role in Gaza's affairs has been complex, with periods of cooperation and conflict with Hamas. Despite this, Egypt's peace treaty with Israel remains crucial for Israel's strategic interests. However, the current situation on the Egyptian border is dangerous, with the potential for mistakes and tragedies. The international community, including the Biden administration, could have put more pressure on Egypt to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza, but Egypt's concerns about the potential spillover of violence from Gaza into Sinai made it a sensitive issue. Ultimately, Israel must acknowledge Egypt's role in the situation and maintain a nuanced approach to its relationship with Egypt while remaining self-reliant in the region.

Egypt and Qatar bear some responsibility for the growth of terrorism in their region, and they should now help in mitigating the resulting problems. The speaker expresses disappointment in their past actions and emphasizes the need for them to contribute to finding solutions or at least easing the current difficulties. Amos Harrell, the guest on the podcast, provided valuable analysis on the complex situation in the Middle East, and the host, Dan Senor, emphasized the importance of understanding these intricate stories. The episode was produced and edited by Ilan Benatar, Rebecca Strom, and Martin Huergo. Stay tuned for more insightful discussions on Call Me Back.