Podcast Summary
China's Defense Budget Continues to Grow: China's defense budget is projected to reach $224 billion in 2021, making it the second largest in the world. Despite economic challenges, China is expected to maintain a high rate of growth in military spending, narrowing the gap with the US.
Despite discussions about China's economic and demographic challenges, Chinese military power is far from peaking based on current defense spending trends. China's defense budget has been increasing by an average of over 9% annually since the late 1990s, and this year it is projected to be around $224 billion, second only to America's. Although maintaining this rate of growth will be challenging as the economy slows, China is projected to narrow the gap with America's military spending substantially by the end of the decade. However, it's important to note that defense spending is not the only factor determining military capability. Other factors, such as technology, manpower, and strategic positioning, also play significant roles.
China's Navy Expansion Falls Short of Invading Taiwan: By 2030, China will have around 440 battle force vessels, but still lags behind US navy's operational capacity. Experience and effective use of new naval equipment are major weaknesses. Potential triggers for conflict include Taiwan's independence or significant enhancements, Xi Jinping's impulsive decisions, or political challenges.
While China's navy has significantly expanded over the last two decades, it still falls short of Xi Jinping's needs for a successful invasion of Taiwan. By 2030, China is expected to have around 440 battle force vessels, including about a dozen large amphibious ships. However, when compared to the US navy, which has a battle force of 296 ships and is expected to drop below 290 by 2030, China's navy still lags behind in operational capacity. China's lack of experience in warfare and the need to learn how to effectively use its new naval equipment are major weaknesses. Despite these challenges, Taiwan and its allies should not feel completely safe, as Xi Jinping may still decide to go to war before his forces are ready. Triggers for potential conflict include Taiwan declaring independence or significant enhancements to the island's status or defenses. Additionally, Xi Jinping's age, potential ill health, or political challenges could lead him to make impulsive decisions.
Military tension between China and Taiwan and potential war outcome: Chinese strategists aim for military modernization by 2035 to improve odds of winning a war and facilitate a peaceful solution, while the military balance shifts in China's favor, but experts argue that time is on Xi Jinping's side for a peaceful resolution, with complex geopolitical implications and enormous risks and costs.
The military tension between China and Taiwan, potentially leading to a war, is a significant concern for the coming decade. However, the outcome of such a conflict is uncertain, with potential devastating human and economic costs for all parties involved. Chinese strategists aim for complete PLA modernization by 2035, hoping to improve their odds of winning a war and facilitating a peaceful solution. The military balance is currently shifting in China's favor, with their nuclear arsenal predicted to almost quadruple by 2035. Despite these concerns, some experts argue that time is still on Xi Jinping's side, as military advantages may facilitate a peaceful solution. The Chinese people's perception of their military capabilities is also a factor, as seen in the popular film "Born to Fly" and its comparison to America's "Top Gun" franchise. The geopolitical landscape is complex, and the risks and potential consequences of military action are enormous.
Excess deaths in Europe due to energy crisis: The energy crisis in Europe caused by Russia cutting gas exports resulted in approximately 150,000 excess deaths between November 2021 and February 2022, a 7.8% increase compared to historical trends, with most not directly related to COVID-19.
The energy crisis in Europe caused by Russia cutting gas exports led to a significant increase in energy prices, resulting in a devastating impact on people's lives. According to data from The Economist, there were approximately 150,000 excess deaths across 28 European countries between November 2021 and February 2022, which is a 7.8% increase compared to the expected number of deaths based on historical trends. Although some of these deaths were officially recorded as COVID-19, the majority were not directly related to the virus. The cold weather during the winter months did contribute to the increase in mortality, but the winter was actually milder than average. Therefore, the cold weather alone cannot fully explain the surge in deaths. The charts on The Economist's website illustrate the relationship between excess deaths and temperature change during the winter months. This crisis highlights the deadly consequences of soaring energy prices and the importance of ensuring affordable and reliable energy sources for all.
Excess deaths during winter 2022, particularly in colder regions, may be linked to high energy prices.: During winter 2022, countries with highest energy prices experienced the most excess deaths, suggesting a correlation between energy prices and mortality.
The data suggests there were more excess deaths than expected during the winter months of 2022, particularly in colder regions like December. While COVID-19 and extreme cold were ruled out as primary causes, the relationship between high energy prices and excess deaths is less clear-cut. An analysis of energy prices and excess deaths from different countries revealed a correlation between higher energy prices and more excess deaths. For instance, countries with the highest energy prices, such as Germany and Britain, experienced the most excess deaths, while countries with lower energy prices, like Hungary and Poland, saw no excess deaths. Although it's challenging to definitively prove energy prices were the cause, statistical modeling suggests a significant link between energy prices and excess deaths. Specifically, a 10¢ per kilowatt hour increase in energy prices was estimated to lead to a 2.2% increase in a country's weekly mortality.
European government interventions saved lives during energy crisis but caused harm elsewhere: European government interventions during energy crisis saved thousands of lives but may have caused harm in other parts of the world, highlighting the importance of authentic representation in film and accurate portrayal of countries and cultures in media.
Government interventions in Europe during the energy crisis last winter saved an estimated 26,000 lives, but may have caused harm elsewhere in the world due to increased demand for power. The discussion also highlighted the importance of representing authentic perspectives in film, as demonstrated by Pema Tseden's work in Tibetan cinema. If our listeners are interested in the graphs mentioned in the podcast, they can find them on The Economist website, and new listeners can enjoy a free 30-day digital subscription. The podcast also touched upon the deadly impact of Putin's energy weapon during the winter, and the importance of accurately representing countries and cultures in media.
Navigating Chinese censorship as a Tibetan filmmaker: Tibetan filmmaker Anne Ro Onpaymentsiadine started from scratch, emphasizing Tibetan culture and impermanence, avoiding Chinese policy criticism to create deeply reflective films.
Tibetan filmmaker Anne Ro Onpaymentsiadine faced numerous challenges in making films about the ordinary lives of Tibetan people under Chinese occupation. With no cinematic industry or professionals in Tibet, she had to start from scratch and carefully navigate Chinese censorship. Her Buddhist upbringing influenced her work, emphasizing impermanence and detachment. Despite dealing with sensitive subjects like registration papers and unexpected pregnancies, she avoided criticism of Chinese policies. Her films, deeply rooted in Tibetan culture, instill a sense of detachment and reflection on the transient nature of life.
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