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    Swamp Notes: How money is shaping the 2024 US election

    enFebruary 03, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Wealthy donors hedging bets in 2024 presidential raceSome wealthy donors, including Jamie Dimon and Ken Griffin, are returning to support Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination, strategically hedging their bets due to his potential to win and history of rewarding friends and punishing enemies.

      Despite distancing themselves from Trump after the January 6th insurrection and his failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election results, some wealthy donors are now returning to support him due to his potential to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election. This move shows that these donors are strategically hedging their bets as Trump has a history of rewarding friends and punishing enemies. He has previously attempted to impose higher rates on Amazon deliveries to punish Jeff Bezos and blocked mergers involving companies that were critical of him. Donors, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Ken Griffin, are signaling to Trump that they are not his enemies and are attempting to insure themselves against any potential anger from him. This week, Griffin announced a $5,000,000 donation to Nikki Haley's Super PAC, further highlighting this trend of hedging bets in the political landscape.

    • The 2024 Republican primary: A dance of political alliances, shifting loyalties, and financial backingThe 2024 Republican primary race is marked by inconsistent PR strategies, shifting allegiances, and significant financial backing, with pro-Trump groups spending over $52 million on legal fees last year.

      The 2024 Republican primary race continues to be marked by shifting allegiances and strategic donations. Trump's recent endorsement of Nikki Haley, followed by his comments downplaying her chances, left some donors, like Ken Griffin, in a bind. Griffin, who had previously supported DeSantis, now appears to be aligning with Trump. This inconsistency raises questions about the effectiveness of such PR strategies at the highest level. Meanwhile, the financial aspect of the race remains a significant factor, with pro-Trump groups having spent over $52 million on legal fees last year. The money game is supreme, and many are willing to overlook inconsistencies to back the winning horse. In the end, the race continues to be a complex dance of political alliances, shifting loyalties, and financial backing.

    • The financial landscape of the 2024 presidential raceJoe Biden and Donald Trump have similar large war chests, but Trump's legal battles are draining his resources. Nikki Haley raised $69M but spent most, continuing in SC with donor support.

      The financial landscape of the 2024 presidential race is shaped significantly by the fundraising and spending of key contenders, including Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as Nikki Haley. While Trump and Biden have similar war chests of $52 million each, Trump's legal battles are draining his resources. Nikki Haley, the only other serious challenger to Trump, raised an impressive $69 million last year but spent most of it. She is expected to continue her campaign in South Carolina, where she was once governor, with the help of donors who previously supported other candidates. Campaign finance in the US is a massive and complex issue, with individuals able to spend unlimited amounts on a campaign, either directly or through Super PACs, which can raise and spend vast sums of money independently of the candidate.

    • Campaign finance doesn't guarantee election successDespite record-breaking fundraising, campaign finance doesn't ensure victory in U.S. elections. Voter sentiment and political complexities play significant roles.

      While Joe Biden raised a historic amount of money during the 2020 elections, there is no guarantee that candidates with large campaign war chests will ultimately win. The ease and affordability of campaign finance in the U.S. can be shocking, with the overall cost of the 2020 elections coming in under $10 billion. This makes it relatively simple for major donors to contribute large sums to campaigns. However, if a candidate like Nikki Haley were to drop out, it remains uncertain where her donors would go next. Some may view her as a last resort to challenge Donald Trump, but it's unclear if they would ultimately support him. Ultimately, the 2020 elections demonstrated that while campaign finance plays a significant role, it doesn't guarantee success. The complexities of politics and voter sentiment can't be bought with money alone.

    • Taylor Swift's Super Bowl appearance and relationship with Travis KelceSwift's clean-cut image and relationship with Kelce make her appealing to conservative-leaning families, and baseless theories about her influencing the election through the Super Bowl are unlikely.

      The controversy surrounding Taylor Swift's relationship with American football star Travis Kelce and the Super Bowl, as well as baseless conspiracy theories about her influencing the election through the NFL, is a misreading of how most American voters feel about her. Swift's clean-cut image and relationship with a well-respected football star actually make her an appealing figure to conservative-leaning families. The idea that her endorsement of Biden could sway the election based on the Super Bowl outcome is unlikely, and even if the Chiefs win, most Americans will be celebrating a celebrity couple rather than attributing the win to Swift's influence. Overall, it's a wasted effort for conservatives to target Swift with such conspiracy theories.

    • Taylor Swift's influence on US election is limitedFocusing on Taylor Swift for election impact is not a wise strategy due to her immense popularity and limited potential votes in certain states. Instead, focus on other areas to make a difference.

      Taylor Swift, with her massive popularity and influence, is not a viable target for those looking to impact the US election, with the potential impact being only around 40,000 votes in certain states. The discussion on Swamp Notes, the US politics show from the Financial Times, highlighted this point, emphasizing Swift's immense popularity and stadium-filling capacity. Alex Rogers, the US business and politics correspondent, and Ed Luce, the Feet's US political columnist, both agreed that it would not be a wise strategy to go after Swift or the show. Instead, it's more productive to focus on other areas that could potentially make a difference in the election. Moreover, the show also featured promotions for two sponsors. The first was 1800 Flowers, which was encouraged as a go-to destination for gift giving, emphasizing their dedication to delivering smiles through their high-quality offerings. The second was Quince, a platform that offers high-end goods at significantly discounted prices while ensuring ethical and responsible manufacturing practices. By providing these promotions, the show not only offered valuable insights into US politics but also introduced listeners to great deals and causes that align with their values.

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    Denver Public Schools superintendent Susana Cordova at DPS headquarters on April 3, 2020. (Andy Cross, The Denver Post via The Associated Press)

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    “Her prior work boosting academic progress and improving access to high-quality education for learners of all backgrounds as superintendent of Denver Public Schools is sure to benefit students across the state as she brings this passion and experience to this new role,” said Polis, a Democrat. “I look forward to working with Susana as a member of my cabinet as we continue to carry forward our bold education priorities.”  

     

    COLORADO SUN:

    Colorado GOP paid no staff in April while fundraising lags under new Chairman Dave Williams

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    Dave Williams speaks during a Republican state central meeting on March 11, 2023, in Loveland where elections for a chairman, vice chairman and secretary of the Colorado GOP were conducted. (Olivia Sun, The Colorado Sun via Report for America)

    If the Colorado Republican Party had employees in April, they didn’t get paid.  

    It’s the first time in at least 20 years the party didn’t pay any employees.

    And the party’s bank accounts have less money than the $120,540 a recent filing said the party had on hand, the GOP acknowledged in an addendum filed Saturday with the Federal Election Commission.  

    The Colorado GOP raised only about $58,000 in the first four months of the year, including less than $15,000 in April. The party spent more than $15,000 last month, with $9,100 going to health and dental benefits. It’s unclear if anyone is working for the party; no staff is listed on its website.

    The lack of a payroll for a state party in Colorado is unusual.

    “There have been other cycles where the party pays only one or two salaries in the off year,” said Kristi Burton Brown, who chaired the party during the last election cycle. “If they want to run it all-volunteer, they certainly can.”

    The party raised only a little more than $18,000 in the first two months of the year, before Williams was elected chairman.  

    From January through April, Colorado’s GOP spent more than $263,000. That compares with $539,000 spent in the first four months of 2021, another nonelection year when five people were paid for their work in April. Of this year’s spending, $73,000 went to Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck for legal services.  

    “Anybody who gets elected state chair should probably prioritize raising money,” said Dick Wadhams, who ran the state party from 2007 to 2011 and has been critical of Williams. “You can’t run an operation without money.”

    The state Democratic Party raised nearly $92,000 in April, and spent nearly $211,000, including about $26,000 on payroll for a half-dozen employees. That left the party with nearly $196,000 in cash at the end of April.

    The Democratic Party raised more than $419,000 in the first four months of the year, while spending about $454,000. The party’s state-level account had nearly $32,000 at the end of March.

    And the Colorado GOP has trailed Democrats in political spending in the state in recent years.

    Campaign accounts or PACS for several of the state’s top elected Democrats have donated to the federal party account this year including U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper; U.S. Reps. Diana Degette, of Denver, Yadira Caraveo, of Thornton, Jason Crow, of Centennial, and Joe Neguse, of Lafayette; Gov. Jared Polis; Treasurer Dave Young; and others. Hickenlooper also sent two emails recently asking people to donate to the state party.

    The Colorado GOP received $12,500 from the terminated 8th Congressional District campaign of state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, of Brighton, in early March. It’s the only money the party has received from Republican officeholders or candidates this year.

    Tagged:Colorado Democratic Party, Colorado Republican Party, Dave Williams

    ABC NEWS:

    Arizona set for unpredictable Senate race

    ByTal Axelrod

    May 23, 2023, 3:06 AM

     

    Democrats and Republicans can at least agree on one thing: They have no idea what's going to happen in next year's Arizona Senate race.

    The election is shaping up to be an unpredictable three-way contest in one of the nation's premier battlegrounds featuring an incumbent who left her party (Sen. Kyrsten Sinema), a polarizing conservative who remains a rock star with her base (Kari Lake), and a Democratic nominee-in-waiting who would represent a shift to the left for the historically moderate-minded state (Rep. Ruben Gallego).

    Sen. Sinema first set the stage when she switched from being a Democrat to an independent late last year. While she called that choice a "reflection of who [she’s] always been," the switch also prevented a primary fight with Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego -- and paved the way for something more unusual.

    State data shows just under 35% of Arizona voters are registered Republicans and 30% are registered Democrats, while 35% aren't registered with either party.

    If Sinema retires, the race to succeed her could feature Gallego, a Marine Corps vet and former House colleague of Sinema's who has become vocally critical of her, and Republican Kari Lake, a former TV anchor, election denier and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial candidate.

    Both Gallego and Lake are more associated with their parties' ideological flanks than the centrists who have historically won statewide.

    state GOP strategist Lorna Romero said "It's gonna be like nothing we've ever seen before in Arizona. I think what's going to make it nasty is obviously Ruben and Kyrsten don't get along personally. And depending on who the Republican is, if you get a firebrand like a Kari Lake again, we've seen how she's operated before, that's going to take it to another level."

    Nineteen operatives from both parties who spoke with ABC News for this story mostly thought that Sinema would run again, pointing to her ongoing fundraising and continued involvement in high-profile legislative pushes like on immigration.

    Senator Kyrsten Sinema questions witnesses during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in the wake of recent of bank failures, on Capitol Hill, May 18, 2023. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

    Sinema, who previously served in the House for three terms, quickly thrust herself into the heart of several of the chamber's most significant and successful legislative efforts, including on infrastructure, same-sex marriage, guns and more.

    Her style of legislating has generated mixed reviews, with supporters pointing to her scorecard and liberal detractors saying she has been overly eager to water down Democratic priorities, including raising the minimum wage, supporting prescription drug pricing reform and scrapping the Senate filibuster as a way to codify abortion rights.

    Cesar Chavez, a former Democratic state lawmaker said "Overall, I think the state of Arizona is content with the work that Sen. Sinema done. The issues that Sen. Sinema has advocated for will definitely result in a positive tick in her numbers."

    Steve Slugocki, a senior adviser to Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a former chair of the Maricopa County Democratic Party had the opposite view. He said, "I cannot stress enough how deeply unpopular she is. I traveled the state everywhere last year. The first question was always, 'What are we going to do about Sinema? How can we replace her?'"

    Sen. Kyrsten Sinema arrives at the Capitol, May 9, 2023. Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairman Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego speaks at a CHC event. Getty Images

    All of this will play out in the larger context of the battle for the Senate, with the Democratic caucus holding a slim 51-49 majority, but defending 23 seats in 2024, making operatives eager to avoid a spoiler candidate, but without any agreement on who that would be.

    A former aide to Sen. Sinema said "She has shown she knows what it takes to win in Arizona. I look at these other candidates, and I do not see proven winners. "So yeah, as a Democrat, I'm nervous because I want to keep Kari Lake out of the Senate."

    "If she's in the race as an independent, Ruben's already at a disadvantage as a Democrat just because of the lower registration numbers that we have," said one former state lawmaker who is supporting Gallego. "So, it comes down to how many votes is Sen. Sinema going to take? Even if it is a very small percentage, any small percentage at all could tip this."

    To be sure, Democrats aren't the only ones wringing their hands.

    Republican strategists told ABC News that a three-way race with a Democrat and an independent with a Democratic background would normally be a boon to the GOP candidate. But failed 2022 candidate Kari Lake is looming in the wings and is coming off a narrow loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs, which many observers attributed to her embrace of baseless claims of 2020 election fraud.

    A source familiar with Lake's thinking told ABC News they're confident she'll run for the Senate, likely launching a campaign in the fall. This person also confirmed that Lake recently met with several senators, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines of Montana, and that with her broad name recognition and support from conservative voters, she would enter the race as the overwhelming primary favorite.

    GOP strategist Lorna Romero said "[T]he Sinema breakup from the Democratic Party looks good for Republicans on paper, theoretically. But I think that the big heartburn is what's going to happen out of a Republican primary, and are we just going to do the same ridiculous mistakes over and over again, and Democrats are just going to continue to win in the state,"

    Still, virtually every person who spoke to ABC News added the caveat that their analyses could end up being off given the unpredictable nature of a potential race with the incumbent running as the third-party candidate.

    "We've never seen anything like that in Arizona," one Democratic strategist said. "I just think trying to predict anything right now, you might as well shake a Magic 8 Ball and see what it tells you."

     

    CONCERT PICK OF THE WEEK: Sir Richard Starkey MBE, otherwise known as Ringo Starr!! Ringo Starr and his All Starr Band are on a Western U.S. tour with shows this week in San Diego, Eugene and Bend OR, and next week playing Denver’s Bellco Theatre and the Pikes Peak Center in Colorado Springs. Tickets and information at ringostarr.com

    Welp, that’s it for me! From Denver I’m Sean Diller. Original reporting for the stories in today’s show comes from Colorado Newsline, Colorado Sun, ABC News, Arizona Mirror, and Denver’s Westword.

    Thank you for listening! See you next time.

     

     

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    Elizabeth Warren on what Barack Obama got wrong

    Elizabeth Warren on what Barack Obama got wrong
    Elizabeth Warren is the founder of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the senior senator from Massachusetts, and the author of the new book, “This Fight Is Our Fight: The Battle to Save America's Middle Class.”You might have heard of her.Warren is also one of the Democrats most capable of defining the Democratic Party’s soul and message in a post-Trump era. In her book, she says she had at least one big disagreement with President Obama — a disagreement that speaks to the direction she wants to lead the party. Obama told Americans, “the system isn’t as rigged as you think.”"No, President Obama,” Warren replies, "the system is as rigged as we think. In fact, it’s worse than most Americans realize.”In this interview, we go deep into Warren’s view on how, where, and why the system is rigged — as well as what can be done about it. We also talk about whether fighting Trump requires matching his tone and tactics, how complex policies and processes create space for special interests to take over, and why Trump’s abandonment of economic populism hasn’t affected his support among his voters.Warren is an able, thoughtful advocate for one of the Democratic Party’s possible futures: becoming a party that represents the economic populism Trump claimed to champion, but quickly abandoned. But as she’s the first to admit, that won’t be easy.Books:“Evicted," by Matthew Desmond"Two Dollars a Day," by Kathryn Edin “The Little Engine that Could," by Watty Piper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices