Podcast Summary
Living through a Crisis Era: The Fourth Turning: We're in a generation-long crisis era marked by big threats and cultural shifts, expected to last until around 2025. Prepare for the next phase, the awakening, and work towards a positive outcome.
According to Neil Howe, a historian, demographer, and economist, we are currently living through a crisis era, or fourth turning, in the 80 to 100 year cycle of history. This era, which is a generation-long period, sometimes seems to be getting better, sometimes seems to be getting worse, and moves through several phases before reaching a climax and resolution. The fourth turning isn't a historical event, but rather an era marked by a country facing a big threat and going through several phases, including a high, awakening, unraveling, and crisis. The current fourth turning started around the turn of the millennium and is expected to last until around 2025. The phases we've already experienced include the unraveling and crisis, and the next phase will be the awakening, followed by the high. The cultural changes that will occur during this fourth turning include shifts in gender roles, among other things. It's important to note that the resolution of a fourth turning doesn't always result in a positive outcome, and the most important thing to do to successfully navigate a fourth turning is to prepare for it and work towards a positive outcome.
The Fourth Turning: A Long-Lasting Crisis: Historical crises have distinct phases, including a precursor event, a period of unity, individualism and lassitude, and a catalyst event that triggers regeneracy.
A fourth turning is a long-lasting crisis. It's not just an event, but an era. These crises have distinct phases, and one of the earliest signs is a precursor event that mobilizes the public to rally around a great danger. After a brief period of unity, the country returns to individualism and lassitude. Eventually, the alignment shifts, and a catalyst event triggers the fourth turning. This can be seen in historical events like the American Revolution, the Great Depression, and more recently, the 2008 financial crisis. The fourth turning awakens the public to a new mood and leads to regeneracy, where a new sense of public direction emerges. For example, the election of FDR during the Great Depression and the election of Trump in 2016 marked the beginning of regeneracy in their respective fourth turnings.
Periods of social and political upheaval called fourth turnings: Recognizing historical patterns of increased political participation and conflict during fourth turnings can help us prepare for potential challenges and opportunities in the current climate.
Throughout history, during periods of social and political upheaval, known as fourth turnings, American society has experienced significant increases in political participation and the formation of distinct political tribes. These periods are often marked by crises, such as wars or economic downturns, which temporarily unite the nation but can also lead to organized conflict and creative destruction of the public sector. The current political climate, with its heightened partisanship and concerns about civil unrest, may be an indication that we are entering another such period. Previous fourth turnings have seen the election of transformative leaders and the implementation of major policy changes, but they have also been marked by intense conflict and even total war. It is important for us to recognize these patterns in history and to be prepared for the potential challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
A history of American regeneracy during times of divisiveness: Throughout history, the US has come together during periods of external threat, leading to renewal and transformation
Throughout American history, there have been periods of great divisiveness and internal conflict, such as the 1930s and the current political climate starting in 2016. However, despite these differences, the nation has been able to come together and galvanize around a common objective, often in response to external threats like fascism or the need for a strong foreign policy. The current political climate, marked by heightened public interest and demoralization, could lead to another regeneracy, or period of renewal and transformation. Previous regeneracies, like the one during the 1930s, saw a shift in constituencies and a refocusing of national priorities, ultimately leading to significant change and unity.
Consolidation and Climax in Social and Political Landscapes: During consolidation, societies unite to overcome threats, while climax marks a decisive turning point. Potential triggers include wars or internal crises, and current uncertainties may lead to a consolidation event.
The social and political landscape undergoes predictable cycles of regeneracy, consolidation, and climax, with each phase bringing unique challenges and potential crises. The consolidation phase, marked by public mobilization towards solidarity to overcome a perceived threat, could be triggered by various events, such as great power wars or internal threats like impeachments or states refusing to follow federal authority. The climax, which follows consolidation, is a decisive turning point often marked by significant victories or events, like the simultaneous invasions of Europe and the Marianna Islands during World War II. Today, we face economic and political uncertainties, and the potential for a consolidation event, such as a major war or a civil crisis, remains a possibility. Younger generations, particularly, express growing disillusionment with democracy, highlighting the need for effective leadership and solutions to address these challenges.
A significant societal transformation, called a fourth turning, began around 2008: During periods of societal upheaval, enduring and impactful long-term institutions are often created
We are currently experiencing the climax of a significant societal transformation, known as a fourth turning, which began around 2008. This transformation is marked by a shift towards community, greater equality, and a renewed focus on long-term decision making and institutions. The end of this cycle, including the resolution of conflicts and the establishment of new political structures, is estimated to occur around the end of the decade. Despite the current crisis, it is during these periods of upheaval that some of the most enduring and impactful long-term institutions are created. Examples include the American Constitution during the late 1700s and the New Deal legislation during the Great Depression.
Changes and institutions formed during crises: During crises, significant changes and institutions are established, and gender roles may become more distinct and separate, but young people now focus on making roles effective for everyone
Significant changes and institutions are often established during times of crisis, rather than during periods of prosperity. This was evident during the Great Depression when FDR implemented long-term regulatory reforms. The speaker also discusses the transformation of culture during times of crisis, with people looking for simplicity and clarification of basic fundamentals. Regarding gender roles, the speaker suggests that while there is current gender fluidity, there is also a sense of exhaustion and a desire for simplification in defining roles. In the past, during times of crisis, gender roles have become more distinct and separate. However, the speaker sees a shift towards young people focusing on how to make roles work effectively for everyone, rather than personal expression. The speaker also mentions a trend in the past where women wanted traditional male roles, which is now changing with women wanting men to be more engaged and present in their lives.
Changing gender roles and socioeconomic landscape impacting marriage and fertility among millennials: Women are prioritizing security and stability in partners, leading to increased education and career focus. A crisis could disrupt this trend by providing opportunities for young men to serve and assume responsibilities, potentially leading to renewed focus on traditional roles and relationships.
The shifting socioeconomic landscape and changing gender roles have contributed to the decline in marriage rates and fertility among millennials. Women are seeking partners who can provide security and stability, but are struggling to find men who meet these expectations. This trend has led to an increase in educational attainment and career focus among women as they seek alternative means for stability. The current crisis could potentially disrupt this trend by providing opportunities for young men to serve their country and assume responsibilities, which could lead to increased marriage and family formation. Additionally, surveys suggest that young people are reevaluating their definitions of citizenship and seeking ways to contribute to their communities, potentially leading to a renewed focus on traditional roles and relationships.
Younger generations hold less positive views towards feminism: Despite societal progress, younger generations have more negative views towards feminism than older generations. This trend holds true for both Democrats and Republicans, men and women. Understanding societal cycles and historical parallels can help us navigate the challenges ahead.
Younger generations, particularly those under 40, hold more negative views towards feminism compared to older generations. This trend is true among both Democrats and Republicans, men and women. This shift in perspective is a sign of the current societal climate and could be a precursor to larger societal changes. People are increasingly aware of the concept of a "fourth turning," a cycle of societal change, and this awareness could influence how the crisis unfolds. However, the outcomes of these crises can vary greatly, from great progress to disastrous results. For example, the resolution of the American Civil War led to poverty and economic struggle in the South for decades. Understanding these parallels and the natural progression of societal crises can help us navigate the challenges ahead.
Focus on personal relationships during societal crises: Strengthen family and community networks during societal crises as public resources may be allocated elsewhere
During a fourth turning, a societal crisis, the outcome can be positive or negative. If positive, it can lead to a new period of prosperity and advancement. However, if negative, it can result in devastation and permanent damage. Regardless of the outcome, there is a subsequent first turning where society rebuilds and invests in the future. It's crucial during these times to focus on strengthening personal relationships, especially family and community networks, as public institutions may allocate resources toward national survival, leaving fewer safety nets. Studying accounts of people who lived through past crises can provide valuable insights into the importance of close relationships during these challenging times.
Understanding the recurring cultural shifts in American history: During times of societal upheaval, family bonds strengthen, while during periods of stability, family may not be as central. This pattern, called the 'Fourth Turning', is a recurring theme in American history.
During times of societal upheaval, such as the 1930s and 40s, family bonds became stronger. Conversely, during periods of stability, like the 1990s, family may not be as central. According to Howe, this cultural shift is a recurring pattern in American history, which he calls the "Fourth Turning." If you're interested in learning more about this concept, check out Howe's book "The Fourth Turning" available on Amazon.com and in bookstores. For additional resources and further discussion on this topic, visit aom.is/fourth-turning. Remember, the Art of Manliness podcast isn't just about listening; it's about taking action. So, apply what you've learned and share this knowledge with others. Thank you for tuning in, and until next time, it's Brett McKay.
