Podcast Summary
Republican confidence: The 2020 Republican National Convention exudes a celebratory mood, with Republicans expressing confidence in Trump's invincibility and ability to make changes, fueled by his survival of an assassination attempt and the framing of the election as strength vs weakness.
The 2020 Republican National Convention feels like an early victory party due to the confidence and cockiness of the Republicans, fueled by their belief in Donald Trump's invincibility and his ability to make significant changes to the party. The mood is celebratory, and there's a sense that Trump is ordained for a second term. The assassination attempt on Trump has added an aura of invincibility, and speakers have emphasized Trump's strength as a contrast to what they perceive as Biden's weakness. The Republican Party's framing of the election is about strength versus weakness, and they have been focusing on this theme since the beginning of the campaign. This confidence and belief in Trump's strength may be overconfident, given the unpredictability of politics, but it's a notable shift in the Republican Party's mindset.
Trump campaign strategy against Biden: The Trump campaign focused on defeating Biden, tailored operations to target specific demographic groups, and created viral content to undermine him, believing their best chance at winning was against him.
The Trump campaign's strategy was built around defeating Joe Biden, and the debate and the assassination attempt served to highlight the perceived weakness of Biden, reinforcing the campaign's narrative of strength. The Trump campaign, led by Susie Wiles and Chris LaSavita, had spent months tailoring their operations to target specific demographic groups and create viral content to undermine Biden. The potential replacement of Biden with another Democratic nominee was a major concern for the campaign, as they believed their best chance at winning was against Biden. Susie Wiles, in particular, had made a significant impact on Florida politics by increasing the Republican Party's vote share among non-white, traditionally left-leaning demographic groups through sustained engagement and outreach.
Political Campaign Strategies: Effective political campaigns target specific groups with tailored messages, as demonstrated by Susie Wiles and Chris Christie's successful partnership in Florida, but controversial decisions can divert resources from traditional ground operations.
Effective political campaigns target specific groups with tailored messages, as demonstrated by Susie Wiles and her team in Florida. This strategy, while not new, had not been executed well by Republicans before. Meanwhile, Chris Chrisite, a hard-charging Republican operative, is known for turning opponents' strengths into vulnerabilities. When Chrisite teamed up with Wiles, their differences seemed insurmountable, but they managed to professionalize the Republican operation and channel Trump's energy. However, their partnership has also led to controversial decisions, such as shifting resources from get-out-the-vote efforts to an "election integrity" unit focused on monitoring voting processes. While this move may help Trump maintain his belief in election fraud and contest results, it has diverted resources from traditional ground operations.
Election risks and opportunities: The Trump campaign's focus on election integrity and vote by mail presents risks for down-ballot Republicans and opportunities for Trump and Democrats to reach new voters.
The Trump campaign's focus on election integrity and vote by mail has created significant risks and opportunities for both the Trump campaign and the Democrats in the upcoming election. The campaign's insistence on prioritizing election integrity over traditional ground game efforts has left many down-ballot Republicans feeling abandoned and uncertain about their prospects. On the other hand, Trump's late embrace of vote by mail and the subsequent development of a sophisticated voter engagement program could potentially help him win over previously unreached voters and secure a narrow victory. Meanwhile, the Democrats are relying on their ability to turn out reliable voters and are skeptical of Trump's claims about a hidden base of low-propensity supporters. Ultimately, the outcome of the election may depend on which campaign is more effective in mobilizing their respective bases and engaging new voters.
2024 U.S. presidential election demographics shift: The Republican Party is focusing on micro-targeted messaging to reach low engagement, low propensity voters, potentially leading to a first-of-its-kind election with these groups overwhelmingly favoring the GOP, resulting in a more inclusive and edgy party.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could see a significant shift in voter demographics, particularly among low engagement, low propensity voters. The Republican Party is focusing on micro-targeted messaging to reach these groups, rather than traditional ground game efforts. This strategy, which has been successful in reaching non-traditional constituencies, could lead to a first-of-its-kind election where these voters overwhelmingly favor the Republican Party. The Republican National Convention this year reflects this change, with Trump positioning the party as a populist, working-class, multi-racial coalition, and overhauling party structures at the local and state levels. This realignment could result in a party that is more inclusive and edgy, but less reliant on traditional Republican voter bases.
Trump's vice presidential pick: Trump's shift from a safe, vanilla pick to an heir apparent to the MAGA empire in JD Vance reflects his confidence in winning and vision for remaking the country and leading the party
Donald Trump's choice of JD Vance as his vice presidential nominee represents a shift in thinking within Trump's inner circle. While the safe and vanilla pick, such as Doug Burgum, was the preferred choice for many months due to Trump's dislike of competition and desire for reassurance, the idea of selecting an heir apparent to the MAGA empire gained traction. Vance, an unlikely choice due to past criticisms of Trump, impressed Trump with his ability to articulate and translate Trump's populist impulses into a governing vision. Despite some inconsistencies in Trump's choices, Vance's populist aesthetic and ability to create a governing philosophy make him a compelling pick for the vice presidency. Trump and his team believe they are winning and view Vance as a key player in remaking the country and leading the party going forward.
Trump's second term support system: Trump's second term could be more effective due to a stronger support system from right-wing counter-elite, unlike his reliance on establishment figures in his first term
The upcoming second term of a potential Trump administration could be more effective than his first, as he now has a stronger support system from the right-wing counter-elite. This time around, Trump is not reliant on traditional Republican figures like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, but rather on true believers who share his vision and can effectively execute policies. The absence of these establishment figures may not necessarily lead to chaos, but rather a cohesive and effective administration. Two books that provide insight into this topic are "Tired of Winning" by Jonathan Karl, which offers a psychological window into Trump during his time in exile, and "Kingdom of Rage" by Elizabeth Newman, which explores the threat of domestic terrorism and the impact of religious extremism on American politics.
Republican Party transformation: McKay Coppins' biography of Mitt Romney, 'Romney: A Reckoning,' offers valuable insights into the transformation of the Republican Party and Trump's impact on it. A must-read for anyone seeking to understand the evolution of the GOP.
Key takeaway from this episode of "The Ezra Klein Show" is the importance of understanding the transformation of the Republican Party over the past few years, particularly in relation to Donald Trump's remaking of the GOP. McKay Coppins' biography of Mitt Romney, "Romney: A Reckoning," offers valuable insights into this topic. Coppins spent extensive time with Romney, gaining access to his journals and family, and provides a unique perspective on Romney's role as the nominee and Trump's opposition. This book is a must-read for anyone seeking to grasp the evolution of the Republican Party and Trump's impact on it. Tim Alberta, a colleague of McKay's at The Atlantic, joined the show to discuss the significance of this book and the larger context of the current political climate. The episode was produced by Roland Hu, fact-checked by Michelle Harris, and engineered by Jeff Gell, among others.