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    TPP569: Market Update - February 2024

    enFebruary 08, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • UK Property Market: Varying Trends Across RegionsWhile house prices rose 0.7% nationally, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Yorkshire saw the most growth. London and the southeast experienced price softening. Interest rates remain unchanged but their future direction impacts mortgages and the market. Landlords must do thorough tenant screening to avoid illegal subletting.

      The property market is showing varying trends across different regions in the UK. While house prices have seen a 0.7% increase in January according to Nationwide, not all areas are experiencing this growth. Regions like Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Yorkshire are leading the way in price increases, while London and the southeast are seeing prices soften. Meanwhile, interest rates remain unchanged, but their future direction is being closely watched for its impact on mortgages and the housing market. Additionally, the podcast covers a case of illegal subletting faced by a landlord, which serves as a reminder of the importance of due diligence and tenant screening.

    • London property market lags behind the rest of the UKLondon houses have only risen by 13% since 2016 compared to 34% for the rest of the UK, while flats saw a mere 2% increase, making them a poor investment. However, there's optimism for a potential recovery due to underlying fundamentals and a 1.3% increase in asking prices in January 2023.

      The UK property market is experiencing significant regional differences, with prices in the north of the country either remaining stable or increasing, while those in the south, particularly in London, continue to decline. According to recent data from Zoopla, houses in London have only risen by 13% since 2016 compared to 34% for the rest of the UK. However, flats in London have seen a meager 2% increase during the same period, making them a poor investment. Despite this, there is optimism for a potential recovery in the London market due to its underlying fundamentals. Additionally, Rightmove reported a 1.3% increase in asking prices in January 2023, marking the strongest start to the year since 2020. Overall, the UK property market is showing signs of recovery in some areas, while others continue to struggle.

    • Property market shows signs of optimismThe property market is stabilizing with a positive sentiment among sellers, agents, and surveyors. Rents are rising but at a slower pace, and rental falls are not expected this year.

      The property market is experiencing a surge in optimism at the start of the year, as indicated by various data points and sentiment surveys. This optimism is reflected in the stabilizing housing market and the slowing growth of rents. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors' sentiment survey, which has a good correlation with house price movements, is now at its highest level in two years. While there's not a prediction of a housing market boom, there's a general feeling of positivity among sellers, agents, and surveyors. However, it's important to note that sentiment can shift quickly, and economic conditions can change rapidly, so it's essential not to get complacent. Rents are continuing to rise but at a slower pace than before, with London seeing a slight decrease in q4 of last year. The improving supply and demand situation may lead to rental prices softening, but it's still nowhere near normal levels. Inquiries for properties remain strong, and while rental falls are not expected this year, they certainly won't see the double-digit rises of previous years. Overall, the property market is showing signs of stabilization, but it's crucial to stay vigilant and adapt to any changes in the economic landscape.

    • Mortgage approvals on the rise amid rate cutsRate cuts have boosted mortgage approvals, but the market moves fast, so consult a broker for guidance. The IFS proposes removing stamp duty to encourage landlords and boost the property market, potentially benefiting the economy.

      The mortgage market is currently experiencing rate cuts despite the Bank of England base rate remaining unchanged. This has led to an increase in mortgage approvals for the third month in a row. However, the market is moving quickly, so those considering a new mortgage or refinancing should work with a good broker for guidance. In other news, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has suggested that the government should reconsider the impact of taxes on landlords, specifically stamp duty. The IFS argues that stamp duty, among other taxes, hinders the property market and discourages landlords from being active, ultimately affecting tenants. The removal of stamp duty could lead to a more active market with increased transactions, potentially benefiting the economy as a whole.

    • Encouraging more landlords to enter the marketThe IFS suggests removing stamp duty taxes to boost rental supply, but it's an unpopular solution. Political debates continue over proposed reforms, including preventing early notice, removing licensing schemes, and making all eviction grounds discretionary.

      The lack of rental supply in the market is leading to significant rent price increases, causing hardships for tenants. To address this issue, the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests removing additional stamp duty taxes to encourage more landlords to enter the market and increase the supply of rental properties. However, this is an unpopular solution. In politics, the Renter's Reform Bill is ongoing, with disagreements among MPs regarding proposed amendments. Some suggestions include preventing tenants from giving notice during the first four months of tenancy and removing local licensing schemes once the property portal comes into effect. Meanwhile, other proposals suggest making all grounds for eviction discretionary, which could potentially cause chaos and hardship for landlords. Ultimately, finding a balanced solution to the rental market issue is crucial to ensure fairness for both tenants and landlords.

    • New property bill and mortgage changes impact rental marketThe new property bill and potential 99% loan to value mortgage have significant implications for the rental market. Rob Benson's book, 'The Price of Money,' provides insights into economic topics and is a recommended resource for understanding future of money.

      The ongoing legislative process surrounding a new property bill is significant as it will shape the rental market for years to come. The potential introduction of a 99% loan to value mortgage is also a topic of interest, with strong opinions from listeners. Rob Benson's book, "The Price of Money," offers valuable insights into economic topics such as inflation and government debt, and its paperback version has just been released. For those interested in understanding the future of money, this book is a recommended resource. Overall, staying informed about these topics is crucial for those in the property market.

    • Asking for Listeners' Support to Grow the AudienceThe Robs request listeners to subscribe to their YouTube channel and share their podcast to help grow their audience, as they've been consistently producing content for over a decade and believe understanding economics can be life-changing.

      The speakers, Rob and Rob, are asking their listeners to support their podcast by subscribing to their YouTube channel and sharing the podcast with others. They have been consistently producing a podcast every week for over 10 years and have asked for their listeners' help in growing their audience. They believe that understanding economics, as discussed in their podcast, could be life-changing, and they encourage their listeners to spread the word. They appreciate the support they have already received and plan to provide even more content in return.

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