Podcast Summary
Effortless Money Management and Travel Experiences: Wise simplifies international money transactions and Viator offers curated travel experiences with flexible booking options.
Wise and Viator offer solutions to make managing money during international travel and planning trips easier. Wise allows for sending and spending money in different currencies at the real-time mid market exchange rate without hidden fees, while Viator provides access to over 300,000 travel experiences with free cancellation and 24/7 customer support. Meanwhile, in a different context, Mr. Clanchoe discusses the importance of understanding climate change beyond just accepting the science, and considering the potential impact on societies and how we treat each other. He also ponders the role of politics in addressing climate change and the balance between competing priorities.
Considering the interconnectedness of science, stories, and culture in climate change: Embrace the complexities of climate change by recognizing multiple narratives and understanding their legitimacy, as encouraged by climate scientist Kate Marvel
Climate scientist Kate Marvel encourages us to consider the interconnectedness of science, stories, and culture when examining the complex issue of climate change. Marvel, who studies Earth after realizing it's the only good place we know of in the universe, emphasizes the importance of recognizing multiple narratives surrounding climate change and understanding their legitimacy. While delving into the vastness of the universe in her past work left her pondering the limits of human understanding, she encourages us to embrace the complexities of the world and seek knowledge despite the challenges. In future episodes of this series, we will explore various aspects of climate change, including oceans, geoengineering, and politics.
Understanding Climate through Quantum Mechanics: Climate models, based on quantum mechanics, help us explore various scenarios and gain insights into Earth's climate system, revealing its complexity and depth.
Quantum mechanics, which can seem strange with its metaphors of light behaving as both waves and particles, is just as weird as it appears. The professor in this conversation, who teaches climate science, encountered this firsthand when trying to explain the role of light in the climate system. He emphasized that Earth is unique in its ability to support life, and climate models, which simulate the Earth's climate system on computers, serve as world-building machines to help understand physical processes. During the conversation, the speaker mentioned running climate models multiple times a day, using them to explore various scenarios and gain insights into the real world. The simplicity of the first climate model, consisting of just two equations, illustrates the complexity and depth hidden within these seemingly abstract concepts.
Understanding Climate Change with Complex Models: Climate models, based on physical theories and equations, help us grasp Earth's climate system but have uncertainties, mainly about the timeline for reaching a new equilibrium after greenhouse gas emissions. The large ocean's role as a heat sink adds to the complexity.
While climate models are based on physical theories and equations, they are too complex to be solved by hand and can only be numerically solved on supercomputers. These models encapsulate our understanding of the world, but there are significant uncertainties, particularly regarding how long it will take for the Earth to reach a new climate equilibrium after significant greenhouse gas emissions. The Earth's large ocean covers 70% of its surface, making it a significant heat sink, and it takes a long time for the ocean to absorb the heat from human activities. Despite the complexities and uncertainties, we continue to rely on these models to help us understand the Earth's climate system and make informed decisions about mitigating the impacts of climate change.
Oceans Absorb Most of Human-Caused Heat, but It's Not a Free Pass: The oceans absorb most of the heat from human activities, but this heat will eventually be released, causing further warming. Feedback processes like ice melt and cloud behavior add uncertainty to climate model predictions.
The oceans have absorbed about 93% of the heat humans have added to the climate system, but this isn't a "get out of jail free card." The heat isn't disappearing forever; it will eventually reenter the climate system and cause further warming. This process can happen through various means, such as melting ice, increasing surface temperatures, or driving increased evaporation. When we run climate models, the variables that determine how much warming we'll see from doubling carbon dioxide include feedback processes like ice melt and cloud behavior, which we don't fully understand yet. This uncertainty is a significant reason why climate models show a wide range of potential warming outcomes. Additionally, global warming and climate change are interconnected; warming the Earth leads to climate changes, which can then speed up or slow down the warming process. These feedback processes are essential for understanding the Earth's climate response to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Modeling Clouds in Global Climate Simulations: Despite challenges, scientists continue refining cloud parametrizations and algorithms in climate models to better understand Earth's climate.
Clouds play a significant role in regulating Earth's climate, but accurately modeling their behavior in global climate simulations is extremely challenging due to the complex processes involved at very small scales. Researchers use "coarsening approximations" to simplify the modeling, but this process can sometimes lead to inaccurate results. Newer climate models using more advanced techniques to estimate clouds are predicting higher climate sensitivities, but it's unclear if these refinements accurately represent real-world cloud behavior. The climate science community needs to carefully consider the usefulness of these new models and continue refining cloud parametrizations and algorithms. Ultimately, all models have limitations, but they can still provide valuable insights into climate systems.
The Difference Between a 2-Degree and a 5-Degree Warmer Earth: A 3-degree Celsius warmer Earth could lead to more intense rainfall but increased drought risk, with potential tipping points and unknown unknowns that could make cooling impossible.
The difference between a 2-degree and a 5-degree Celsius warmer Earth has significant implications for our planet. While a 7% increase in water vapor for every degree of warming can lead to more intense rainfall events, making some heavy downpours more likely, the complexities of the climate system make it harder to predict the exact impact on droughts. However, as the atmosphere continues to warm, the evaporative demand increases, leading to increased drought risk almost everywhere. It's important to note that while some climate change impacts scale with temperature, there are also unknown unknowns and potential tipping points that could lead to abrupt changes that could make cooling the planet impossible. The last ice age was about 4.5 degrees Celsius cooler than today, and the difference in temperature has profound implications for our planet. The discussion around climate change often confuses feedbacks and tipping points. Feedbacks, like melting ice, are already happening and making the warming worse, while tipping points are abrupt changes that could lead to irreversible damage. The difference between a 2-degree and a 5-degree Celsius warmer Earth is significant, and it's crucial to understand the potential consequences to prepare and mitigate the impact on our planet.
Risks of unimaginable tipping points in climate change: Climate change brings known negatives and potential catastrophic tipping points, increasing as temperature rises. Act now to mitigate both.
Climate change poses not only the continuation of known negative impacts, but also the risk of triggering unimaginable and potentially irreversible tipping points. These tipping points, such as the release of methane from the Arctic permafrost, could significantly worsen the Earth's temperature and potentially render the planet uninhabitable. While it's impossible to predict these tipping points with certainty, the risk increases as the temperature rises. On the other hand, there are solutions, like Mint Mobile's online-only wireless service and Wise's currency exchange app, that can help individuals save money and contribute to a more sustainable economy. In the climate conversation, it's essential to acknowledge both the known negative impacts and the potential for catastrophic tipping points, and to take action to mitigate both. As a political reporter, it can be challenging to distinguish between the two, but the stakes are high, and the future of human civilization may depend on our ability to understand and address the unique challenges posed by climate change.
Climate change as a social issue: Climate change impacts societies and requires a holistic approach, addressing economic justice, racial justice, and health care along with environmental concerns.
Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but a social issue that could lead to the breakdown of human societies. It disproportionately affects the poorest communities and creates disruptions that societies have historically struggled to handle. While climate change is a critical issue, it's essential not to ignore other pressing social issues like economic justice, racial justice, and health care, as they are all interconnected. Climate change affects everything, and addressing it requires a holistic approach. We cannot ignore everything else and focus solely on climate change, but we must understand that every issue we care about is intertwined with the health of our planet. As individuals, we must grapple with the moral implications of our actions and recognize that we only have one planet and one chance to get it right.
Balancing Climate Action and Democracy: The climate crisis demands urgent action, but the speaker raises concerns about the potential consequences of extreme measures on civil liberties and democracy. Finding a balance between necessary climate action and democratic values is crucial.
The climate crisis we're facing requires unprecedented action beyond the normal boundaries of politics. The speaker acknowledges the severity of the situation but expresses unease with the potential consequences of extreme measures, such as the suspension of civil liberties and centralization of power. They question whether democracy can handle such a crisis and express discomfort with the use of warlike rhetoric. However, they also acknowledge that the alternative - inaction or failure to meet the 1.5-degree target - is unimaginable and could lead to catastrophic consequences. Ultimately, the speaker is grappling with the question of how to balance the need for radical action with the values of democracy and individual freedoms.
The future is in our hands: Prevent catastrophic consequences of climate change: We have the power to prevent catastrophic consequences of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but the consequences of crossing a threshold could be severe, as demonstrated by nuclear proliferation.
While natural disasters have caused fewer human deaths over the last century, the potential for increased strife, war, and suffering due to climate change is a concern. However, we currently have the knowledge and ability to prevent the situation from becoming catastrophic by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The threat of nuclear proliferation serves as an analog, demonstrating the severe consequences that can result when a threshold is crossed. The choice is ours to make the future merely bad instead of apocalyptic. The exact boundary for irreversible damage is uncertain, but we have not yet crossed it. It's crucial to recognize the gravity of the situation while also acknowledging the possibility for positive change.
The moral complexities of deliberate geoengineering: Deliberate geoengineering raises significant ethical questions and potential unintended consequences, serving as a reminder of the moral and physical complexities of the issue.
The moral implications of geoengineering, particularly solar radiation management, are complex and far-reaching. Currently, we are unintentionally geoengineering the planet through human activities, but deliberate geoengineering raises significant ethical questions. While some may see it as a simple solution to climate change, it is a massive undertaking with potential consequences that are not fully understood or controllable. The use of nuclear weapons serves as a metaphor for the potential for unintended and unattributable consequences. Additionally, the current global policy allows for uncontrolled geoengineering that makes the climate warmer. It's important to remember that there is no "just" about geoengineering and that it is a morally and physically complex issue that requires careful consideration and evaluation.
Geoengineering: Cooling Down the Planet with Uncertainties: While geoengineering could potentially cool down the planet, it comes with significant uncertainties and potential negative consequences, making it a risky solution. Focus on reducing emissions and adapting to climate change instead.
While it's theoretically possible to cool down the planet by blocking the Sun with sulfate aerosols, geoengineering comes with significant uncertainties and potential negative consequences. This includes disruptions to regional precipitation patterns, failure to address ocean acidification, and unpredictable effects on plants and other organisms. Moreover, the inability to precisely control the Sun's brightness in real life adds to the uncertainty and risk. The ongoing debate around geoengineering reflects two contrasting narratives: one of natural retribution and the need for discipline, and another of endless human progress driven by technology. Ultimately, extreme caution is warranted, and efforts should focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
Embracing Complexity and Progress: We have the power to invent solutions and make progress despite challenges like climate change, by engaging with complex narratives and understanding the physical laws and biological systems that shape our world.
While we may face challenges such as climate change, we have the power to invent solutions and make progress, rather than viewing these issues as inevitable doom or divine retribution. The stories we tell ourselves about the uncertainty of the future shape our perception, and engaging with more complex narratives can lead to progress. It's important to remember that nature is not punishing us, but rather a collection of physical laws and biological systems. The adoption and invention of new technology relies on our actions, and we can make better use of the technologies we have and invest in innovation to address climate change. The energy sources we use are fundamentally solar energy in different forms, and there is no geophysical limitation on us getting energy directly or indirectly. Ultimately, understanding the complex systems and societies that shape our world and how they change can help us tackle the challenges we face.
Stories about climate change have value, but they have an end. Climate change is just one of many stories shaping our lives.: Recognize that climate change is one of many stories shaping our lives, and avoid oversimplifying its impact as only a disaster movie. Broadening our perspective helps us understand the intricacies of living through climate change.
Stories about climate change, whether they depict losing or triumphing, hold value in highlighting the dignity of the struggle to make things better, even if the outcome is uncertain. However, stories have limitations as they have an end, and our lives do not. The complexity of living through climate change is multifaceted, with various stories playing out simultaneously, some better and some worse. It's essential to recognize that climate change is just one of many stories shaping our lives, and it's crucial to avoid oversimplifying its impact as only a disaster movie. Instead, it's important to acknowledge the various ways it intertwines with other aspects of our lives, such as politics, families, and jobs. By broadening our perspective, we can better understand the intricacies of living through climate change and the importance of doing the right thing, even when the outcome is uncertain.
Impacts of climate change on human society: Climate change brings complex, interconnected challenges including food shortages, civil unrest, and normalization of unacceptable behaviors. Adaptation and preparation are crucial.
Climate change will have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, from reduced crop yields and food shortages leading to civil unrest and potential conflict, to the normalization of once unacceptable behaviors and the reevaluation of past events. While there may be tipping points and thresholds, the situation is not binary, and human life may continue to change in unpredictable ways. The speaker expresses a sense of being overwhelmed by the complexity and uncertainty of these social implications, which are interconnected and constantly evolving. It's important to acknowledge the reality of these challenges while also recognizing the limitations of our knowledge and understanding. Climate change is a context in which human life will continue to play out, and we must be prepared for the difficulties and adapt as best we can.
Understanding the complex relationship between individual choices and societal shifts in addressing climate change: Recognize the systemic nature of the climate crisis, strive for social change, and consider individual actions as part of a larger societal effort. Explore literature on living morally in a polluted world and the complexities of individual and societal change.
While we know the climate is changing and that human actions contribute to it, we cannot predict with certainty the exact timeline or consequences of these changes. Individuals may feel morally conflicted about living in a high-carbon society, but recognizing the systemic nature of the issue and striving for social change can help. The study of past climate changes offers valuable insights into the future and the complex relationship between individual choices and larger societal shifts. It's essential to move beyond the false dichotomy of individual action versus social change and consider how we can contribute to a more sustainable future. Additionally, the speaker emphasized the importance of understanding the role of privilege and systemic issues in contributing to the climate crisis. They encouraged exploring literature on living morally in a polluted world and the complexities of individual and societal change. Lastly, the speaker acknowledged that they are not an expert in all areas of climate science and encouraged further exploration of past climate records and their implications for the future.
Natural and human-induced climate changes throughout history: Climate change has caused significant shifts in Earth's temperature and ecosystems throughout history, from the last ice age to the present day, and serves as a reminder of the powerful impact it can have on life and society.
The Earth's climate has undergone significant changes throughout history, with some periods experiencing rapid warming or cooling due to various natural and human-induced factors. During the last ice age, a decrease in sunlight due to the growth of ice sheets led to a decrease in carbon dioxide levels and a cooling effect. Conversely, around 55 million years ago, a massive release of carbon dioxide from tectonic activity contributed to a warming trend that led to a mass extinction event. These past climate events teach us that climate change is a powerful force in shaping life on Earth and serve as cautionary tales for the future. Octavia Butler's science fiction novels, such as "Parable of the Sower" and "Parable of the Talents," offer unsettlingly accurate portrayals of the social unrest and environmental degradation that can result from climate change. Additionally, scientific research and discovery involve a storytelling element, as scientists must distill complex findings into clear and concise narratives.
Spreading awareness about climate change: Dr. Kate Marvel discussed the current state of the climate crisis and potential future consequences, encouraging listeners to spread awareness and take action.
The importance of spreading awareness about climate change and its impacts. Dr. Kate Marvel shared valuable insights into the current state of the climate crisis and the potential future consequences. The episode was made possible by the hard work of Raje Karma in research and Jeffrey Geld in production. We encourage listeners to rate the show on Apple Podcasts or share it with others to help spread the word. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email us at esroclanshow@box.com. The Ezra Klein Show is a Vox Media podcast production. Together, we can make a difference in raising awareness and taking action against climate change.
