Podcast Summary
Tech Companies and Ecommerce Thrive Amidst Economic Uncertainty: Tech companies and ecommerce continue to thrive despite economic challenges, driven by accelerated trends and new behaviors from the pandemic. Long-term prospects remain strong despite potential hurdles.
Tech companies and ecommerce have experienced remarkable growth and performance, even as the economy normalizes from the COVID-19 crisis. This growth can be attributed to both the acceleration of existing trends and the new economic behaviors forced by the pandemic. While there may be challenges ahead, such as supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory scrutiny, the long-term prospects for tech remain strong. Octohedron Capital, founded by Ram Paramishwaran, is an investment firm focused on being the best partner for Internet-scale businesses. They take a concentrated, big picture approach to investing.
Investing in underrepresented niches of the Internet market: The investor shares his belief in the vast potential of the Internet market and his strategy of focusing on a few underrepresented niches, working closely with select companies, and providing expertise to help them scale and succeed in the public markets.
The Internet market is vast and growing, with potential for significant value creation in niches that are currently underrepresented in global market cap. The speaker, an investor, shares his experience of discovering hidden revenue streams in seemingly small businesses, and his belief that the convergence of ubiquitous computing, connectivity, knowledge, and location will significantly increase the Internet's share of global value in the coming decades. The competitive landscape for investing in Internet scale companies is indeed crowded, but the speaker differentiates Octahedron by focusing on concentration, working closely with select companies, and providing expertise to help them scale and succeed in the public markets. Octahedron's approach is to invest in a few companies and do it well, rather than trying to build an index of everything going public.
Rise of digital advertising and new business formations shape private market landscape: The private market investment landscape is constantly evolving, with the rise of digital advertising and surge in new business formations creating new opportunities for investors.
The private market investment landscape is vast and full of opportunities for all players. The last year has been unprecedented, with the world changing in numerous ways, but there are nuances to these changes. One significant shift is the rise of digital advertising as the primary way for businesses to reach consumers, especially during times of quarantine and social distancing. Another notable development is the explosion of new business formations in the SMB sector, leading to an unprecedented demand for software solutions to help these companies compete on a larger scale. Overall, the private market investment scene is not a zero-sum game, but rather an infinitely large and complex space where all players can find opportunities to succeed.
Retail landscape shifting towards interactive, convenient, and niche experiences: The COVID-19 crisis has leveled the playing field for SMBs in digital advertising, allowing them to compete with larger companies. Niche marketplaces and on-demand services are gaining popularity and challenging Amazon's market dominance. Companies need to adapt to provide more interactive and convenient shopping experiences to stay competitive.
The COVID-19 crisis has created an equalizing effect for Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) in digital advertising, allowing them to reach consumers on a level playing field with larger companies. Walmart, Target, and other large retailers have thrived in e-commerce, making significant investments and innovations before the crisis. However, niche marketplaces like Wayfair and Etsy, as well as new shopping mechanisms such as video-based shopping and on-demand services, are also gaining popularity and challenging Amazon's market dominance. Companies like Curated and video-based shopping platforms are providing more interactive and convenient experiences for consumers. On-demand services like DoorDash, Uber, and Instacart have become indispensable for many people's lives and are a worldwide phenomenon. Amazon, which built its business on price selection and convenience, needs to adapt and bring down convenience factors from one day to a few hours to compete with these on-demand companies. Overall, the retail landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards more interactive, convenient, and niche shopping experiences.
Principal Asset Management's unique approach to concentrated betting: Principal Asset Management navigated market uncertainty with informed decisions and expert sector knowledge, despite launching a new fund during a crisis.
Principal Asset Management's unique approach to investing, which involves making concentrated bets on a smaller number of companies, allowed them to navigate the uncertainty of last year's market despite launching a new fund during a crisis. Their experienced team of analysts, each covering a select number of stocks, enables them to become experts in their respective areas and make informed decisions based on risk reward. Launching the fund in April 2020, when markets had already rallied significantly, presented challenges in deploying capital, but Principal Asset Management took their time to carefully invest over several weeks. The team's focus on staying informed about their sectors and maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation has helped them manage growth and keep up with the ever-changing market conditions.
Despite challenges, high-growth companies are not as expensive as they seem: Despite high valuations, high-growth companies like Uber and Amazon are relatively cheap compared to historical valuations in software and internet sectors. The speaker is selectively investing in these areas while being cautious about valuations in software and payments.
Despite the challenges faced in the first year of managing a fund, including raising capital, making strategic decisions, and navigating market corrections, the market for high-growth companies like Uber and Amazon is not as expensive as it may seem. According to the speaker, these companies are actually quite cheap when compared to historical valuations in software and internet sectors. While software and payments are currently expensive, the speaker is cautious and only has select investments in these areas. However, when it comes to internet companies, the speaker argues that while valuations may appear high, they are not as extreme as they seem when considering long-term EBITDA. The speaker's index shows that the current valuation of 31 times long-term EBITDA is higher than the 5-year median of 23, but the skew is due to companies like Airbnb. Overall, the speaker is taking a long-term view and is carefully selecting investments in high-growth sectors.
Large Internet Companies Offered at 'Ridiculously Cheap' Prices: Focus on long-term investment in secular growth businesses like large Internet companies, despite regulatory concerns and market fluctuations.
Despite some regulatory concerns and market fluctuations, large and mega-cap Internet companies, such as Facebook, Google, Amazon, Alibaba, and ByteDance, are considered "ridiculously cheap" due to their strong growth potential, particularly in advertising as the world continues to go online. Companies like Google, with its multiple revenue streams in search, ads, maps, and YouTube, as well as its improving cloud business, are seen as particularly attractive. While some single name Internet companies may be expensive, there are also pockets of value in cheaper companies like Peloton. The focus should be on investing in secular growth businesses with a long-term perspective, rather than being swayed by short-term macro conditions or market fluctuations.
Balancing market needs and risk in investing: Maintain long-term perspective, buy discounted assets, differentiate tech-focused vs tech-enhanced companies, prepare for challenging growth stock market
Successful investing involves a balance between serving the market reasonably well and managing risk, particularly during periods of market euphoria and pain. The speakers emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective while also taking advantage of opportunities to buy good assets at discounted prices. They also highlighted the need to differentiate between companies that are purely tech-focused and those that effectively use technology to enhance their businesses. As a leading real estate manager, Principal Asset Management aims to provide clients with an exclusive advantage by uncovering compelling opportunities through a 360-degree perspective. This year, the market is expected to be challenging for growth stocks, and the team is prepared for this tension. Listen to the Money Stuff podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts for more in-depth finance discussions.
Blurring lines between ecommerce and brick-and-mortar businesses: Traditional brands and channels matter, but adapting to an omnichannel approach is crucial for businesses to thrive in the evolving marketplace, as competition and regulatory pressures continue to shift.
While technology is a major focus, traditional brands and distribution channels still matter, and companies that adapt to an omnichannel approach will thrive. The line between ecommerce and brick-and-mortar businesses is blurring, and even traditional companies can leverage digital tools to compete with tech giants. However, no company, big or small, should rest on its laurels as competition and regulatory pressures continue to evolve. Google and Facebook may currently hold dominant positions, but their moats could erode over time as new technologies and competitors emerge. Amazon, while still a formidable force, will face challenges as other companies chip away at its market share. Ultimately, the market is not a zero-sum game, and the overall pie is constantly growing, leading to new opportunities for businesses to compete and innovate.
Facebook's Impact on Small Businesses and Regulatory Landscape: Facebook's shifting focus on groups and services poses competition to tech giants, while regulatory pressures impact their stock multiples. Analyzing revenue, free cash flow, and EBITDA growth, and applying sober multiples can yield attractive returns despite complex regulatory landscape.
Facebook's impact on small businesses and its ongoing competition with tech giants like Apple, as well as the realities of regulatory scrutiny, make it a challenging but significant player in the tech industry. Facebook's morphing platform, with its focus on groups and services, positions it to compete with Apple's services business and other tech giants. Regulatory pressures are a constant concern for these companies, particularly in Europe and China, but the threat is already reflected in their stock multiples. As business analysts, our focus is on revenue, free cash flow, and EBITDA growth, and applying sober multiples to these stocks can still yield attractive returns. The regulatory landscape is complex, but taking a sober view and focusing on business fundamentals can help navigate the challenges and opportunities in the tech sector.
Chinese regulators cracking down on tech giants: Regulatory scrutiny can cause short-term volatility but may ultimately create opportunities for long-term value creation as undermonetized businesses of tech giants offer significant value to investors
Chinese regulators have been cracking down on tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Financial due to concerns over monopolistic practices and systemic risks to the financial system. This regulatory strategy, despite causing short-term pain, is seen as necessary to prevent excessive competition and potential negative second-order effects. In the US, there are similar concerns over the power and size of tech companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook, and the potential for regulation. However, some argue that breaking up these companies could actually create new opportunities for growth and equity value, as the value of their various businesses and services may be underappreciated in the market. For example, Alibaba's core businesses of Taobao and Tmall, despite being undermonetized, are still growing and could offer significant value to investors. Similarly, Amazon's embedded businesses in cloud computing and international retail could be worth much more than their current market value if separated from the core retail business. Overall, while regulatory scrutiny can cause short-term volatility, it may ultimately create opportunities for long-term value creation.
New learnings from a surprising year for Peloton: Peloton's subscription business holds significant hidden value, and tech stocks continue to attract new investment, driving growth
Peloton's value goes beyond its headline earnings and EBITDA, as the company's subscription business, which includes the Peloton app and monthly fees, holds significant hidden value. Ramco Clemmons, a guest on the podcast, shared that last year was a surprising and humbling one, full of new learnings. Despite the ongoing shift towards normalcy in various sectors, the speakers agreed that this doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in digital business, such as advertising on social media platforms. Furthermore, they discussed the idea that tech stocks, including Peloton, have been underestimated for years and continue to attract new investment, creating a self-fulfilling cycle of growth.
Impressive earnings reports from tech companies: Tech companies consistently exceed earnings estimates, boosting investor confidence and driving up stock prices.
Learning from this episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast is the consistent earnings beat by certain tech companies. Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal discussed how these companies consistently exceed earnings estimates, which helps to boost investor confidence and drive up stock prices. Ram Parameshwaran, their guest, also added to the conversation, acknowledging this trend. Furthermore, the hosts introduced a new podcast called Money Stuff, where Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld will discuss finance and Wall Street news every Friday. The podcast is based on Matt's popular newsletter and will be available on various podcast platforms. The episode concluded with the hosts encouraging listeners to follow them and the podcast on social media and other platforms. They also invited listeners to check out all of Bloomberg's podcasts. In summary, the episode highlighted the impressive earnings reports of certain tech companies and the upcoming Money Stuff podcast.