dave bauer

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

What’s been driving this year’s demand-driven rally? Weather, economics and politics? Or as Bauer explains, it is more likely fundamental market impact. Take a listen. Bauer walks us through what he sees taking place out there.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. 

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Let’s talk about the 11 seasons of the year, and as we do, let’s also look at pork exports and what’s going on there. What's happening in global shipments and demand? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. 

Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

In typical years, the January-February period is like trudging through the forest looking for something to take hold of. This year, however, has been more like ascending to a summit peak. The current market is definitely a market on the move! Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Let’s talk commodity cycles. Are we setting up for entry into a new commodity super cycle? Bauer gives us some thoughts to ponder. Lots to think, he says, as so many waves of change continue to converge.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Does the Earth feel like it just may be tipping a bit? Well it just may be says Bauer because of a large migration happening on the opposite side of the world. Starting today and through the 17th of the month, the Chinese people are celebrating the year of the ox and it is historically when 1.4 billion people travel home and spend time with family. That also means news out of China will be at a stand still until everyone returns to work in a couple of weeks. For global markets that means essentially a standstill until the Chinese return to back to work. What might this mean for the hog industry? What too is going on with rogue virus strains of African swine fever in the Chinese market? Bauer shares his insight.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

As that iconic song goes: you have to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run. Bauer explains there is a group of producers in China right now running away from the hand they have been dealt. Last week 17% of market hogs in China weighed in at about 198 lb. Normal weights have been 286 lb., which means they are leaving 88 lb. of opportunity on that train bound for nowhere. That’s a lost opportunity of $200 per pig.

An indication that the disease pressure in China is severe right now? Or perhaps pressure from the media’s disclosure of illegal vaccine use? Bauer provides his thoughts.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Erin Holmes, Ph.D., swine nutritionist with Provimi, fills in for host Dave Bauer. She offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides some tips on how to efficiently manage nutrition in the face of high feed costs.

The recent rally in ingredient prices continues to hold. Have we reached a point where prices have demanded acres for this spring? Holmes believes perhaps we have. 

In South America, rains are hindering harvest and replanting of the next crop. At the same time, export demand for U.S. soy to Europe is on the rise. 

In China, reports are that there were large purchases of ethanol and corn this week. This has fueled the market. This is the largest purchase of ethanol seen by China. What’s ahead? Holmes explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

What could China’s new testing protocols on imported cold-chain items mean for pork coming into that country? Bauer says among other things it  certainly could slow down shipping and clearance times. Even though the World Health Organization does not support China’s claims of COVID on cold-processed items, China continues to test. 

 What about China’s sow herd? Bauer says it’s headed upward according to reports. Where is China at in it's rebuild? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Bauer starts with a word of caution. Specifically forecasts throughout this new year that compare to last year will be risky, he said, reminding all of the unusual events of 2020. 

What does the world market for pork hold? Where is China in regard to a resurgence of ASF? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

As we are coming out of the holiday disruption period and Columbus Junction comes back on board, the kill this week is estimated to reach 2.58 million head, which would be a new record if achieved. With plants now providing the COVID-19 vaccine to workers there is a renewed level of confidence shaping up. Kill levels will likely reflect that going forward. 

How did we end 2020 in terms of kill and where are we at in terms of exports? Take a listen. Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for a new year.

There still a large book of 2020 purchases to be shipped to China but those will likely be rolled into the new year rather than canceled, say Bauer. There was a speed bump on the slaughter side of things this past week as the Columbus Junction pork plant ran into some mechanical issues and diverted hogs to other plants. What has that done to slaughter numbers and what’s been the market impact? What will the upcoming holidays mean for weekly totals? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for next week.

What’s ahead for the last couple weeks of the year for grains and hogs? Export reports give us little insight. What about profitability?  What about China and its herd size?  There seems to be several different thoughts about what China is up to.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

It's the season for that time-honored tradition of getting out the turkey fryer. Although this year travel restrictions will likely reduce the group size at the table, Provimi senior market analyst David Bauer encourages you all to take time to prepare your own personal feast of celebration and maybe even to consider pork as an option. He’s just not sure how exactly that loin will cook up in the fryer. 

The accumulated slaughter over the past five weeks has averaged 2.688 million head, according to Bauer. Over that period, the average weekday kill has been 485,760 head. The first four days this week averaged 491,500 head, but the three-week average for Friday has been just over 483,000 head. So, let's say we're able to reach 480,000 head Friday and right now Saturday is estimated at 279,000 head that would produce a 2.75 million head kill for the week. Unless USDA comes back with adjustments on Monday due to plant or labor issues, Bauer believes that should stick. Weights were up 1.5 lb. last week, as year-to-date slaughter remains 1% over last year with pork production 1.8% over last year. Bauer believes non-holiday weeks into yearend could remain either side of 2.7 million head per week, unless there are issues around plant or plant labor due to COVID concerns. New pork sales fell 22% from last week.

China has slowed down on new purchases and Bauer thinks we need to get used to that. Although year to date accumulated shipments and outstanding sales are currently 118% of last year, he said we won't see those kinds of numbers in 2021 as herd growth in China and a gradual increase in pork production is anticipated.

What’s ahead for profitability? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

This week’s hog market brought an accumulated slaughter after the first four days that was the strongest opening for any week since the big kills back in March, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi.

If this average is added to this Saturday's estimate of 272,000 head, this week's killed could land at 2.73 million head, 1.5% over last week and 1% over last year. In recent months, this week would be second only to the 2.73 million head over four weeks ago.

Bauer noted that if this kill holds up for the week, chain speed would now be just 1.5% below the stated weekly capacity of 2.767 million head. This is a great milestone for the packer and the efforts of management and the labor force should be applauded. 

Net new pork sales this week were up 46% over last week and up 18% versus the four-week average. Mexico, once again led with 35% of the total followed by China at 24.5%. New 2021 sales of 800 metric tons suggest that maybe last week 7,000 metric ton sale may have been a blip on the map, but hopefully we can see bigger 2021 sales start to be commonplace, said Bauer.

What’s ahead for producer profit margins? What influence might the grain market have? Is $9.50 corn ahead? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

This has been a week of strong kills, logging another day on Tuesday at 492,000 head. Packers continue to have high hopes each day, aiming for those 2.7 million head weekly kills. Still, there are some feelings that COVID fears may be creating concerns to labor again, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi. This latest resurgence of COVID cases in rural America, even though more in the non-processing community, doesn't keep plant workers from being concerned about being around crowds. 

Over the past three Fridays, kills have averaged 487,000 head and approximately 260,000 head over the past three Saturdays. With those kinds of numbers this week, we would have a chance at 2.7 million head killed. That is, of course, if Thursdays 492,000 head estimate stands and isn't adjusted lower. Weekly runs of 2.7 million head seem to be getting harder to achieve, says Bauer.

Producer weights have plateaued over the past couple of weeks, around 214 lb. and packer weights have backed off a pound or so. There has been an abrupt correction to prices. Depending on how the cutout finishes, the week will dictate packer appetite for market hogs come Monday. Pork exports on Thursday, put net 2020 sales at 29,000 metric tons with 2021 new sales of 7,000 metric tons, for a combined 35,000 metric tons of new forward sales. Bauer says it been a great week, for sure, and all in the absence of China only taking 2,500 metric tons of pork. What can we expect from China in the near term? What’s ahead in terms of profitability for producers? Bauer gives his thoughts in this latest episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Pork packers this week passed another milestone by reaching a daily kill of 492,000 head on both Wednesday and Thursday. But it takes a big Saturday kill to make a run at a weekly number over 2.7 million head, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi, in this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork.

Although a couple of weeks ago, a 289,000 head kill on Saturday produced that 2.73 million head weekly run, Bauer notes that is difficult to sustain. As Steve Meyer said on this week’s Global Hog Industry Virtual Conference, if the packer runs his labor force too hard on Saturday, they aren't going to show up on Monday. So, the 96% capacity that the packers are pounding out each week might be close to the new normal.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also released the September cold storage report this week, and instead of the three-year average of 2.5% growth in the August to September frozen pork supplies this year, we just saw a 0.25% increase. It would have been a 2% reduction, but USDA went back and revised downward the August inventory by 2.25% in the process. Speaking of revisions, USDA also revised August hams lower, but it wasn't due to fewer bone-in hams being processed. Bone-in hams were actually revised slightly higher, but the boneless hams were revised lower by 2.75%, suggesting potentially better rather than a lack of inventory.

Talk from Chinese officials that fourth quarter pork production will be up 30% over last year, just in time for their upcoming lunar new year holiday, may be something to keep an eye on.

What’s all this mean for profitability? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers his perspective on this week's hog market and recaps the week’s highlights. He also lists some of the things to think about as you prepare for the week ahead. 

For the second week in a row, barring any unforeseen issues on Friday or Saturday, it will put together another solid six days of slaughter this week reaching near the 2.7 million head level. Once again, the first four days of the week of average an impressive 489,000 head, but to finish out the week, Friday's estimate sits at 482,000 head. Saturday's estimated run, however, started earlier in the week at 236,000 head and plans as a Friday morning have now ramped up to 261,000 landing, right at the 2.7 million head for the week, just 1.1% below last week's 2.73 million head. This is a respectable run and depending how you look at it can be 98% or 96% of normal.

This week's 2.7 million head kill will be 98% of the stated pre-COVID environment capacity of 2.767 million head, or roughly 96% of the postcode environment average intentions of 2.65 million head. So the 2.7 million estimate for this week reflects the packer pushing pretty hard and understandably so as there stated packer margins, if using the simple cutout minus CMI index projection, estimated $41 per head margin. This compares to the three-year average for this period of $26 per head. What’s ahead for producers in terms of margin and profitability? Bauer let’s us know.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers his perspective on this week's hog market and recaps the week’s highlights. He also lists some of the things to think about as you prepare for the week ahead. 

After the rally in prices over the past few months, it's not the time to relax. An opportunity has been provided for everyone from grain farmers to livestock feeders.

Hopefully as a hog producer, you've already got a great base of feed needs on the books. Now is the time to look at taking advantage of the pricing opportunities ahead that may in many respects have been gifted to producers after the past six months to a year of losses. Even if you think there are better days ahead, these are the times when prudent marketers take advantage of great opportunities. Bauer suggests being diligent in your marketing work and to make sure you're looking well out into 2021.

Weekly pork export sales are doing their part to maintain prices as total net sales set a new high watermark at 60,200 metric tons, a 52% week over week with China and Mexico leading the way with 48 and 27% of the total followed by the usual Canada, Japan and South Korea. What’s ahead? Bauer gives his thoughts on this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report has been a mainstay for the hog industry for decades. Right now, though, it has never seemed more confusing, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi. 

Per the inventory results this quarter, the number of hogs that are supposed to be showing up at slaughterhouses, 9.8% over last year, don't seem to be matching up with what's actually showing up. And yes, producers have performed what one analyst has called magic and erased as many as 1 million pigs from our memories. This is where the revisions that USDA typically applies to past quarterly reports could help to perform the magic of now syncing up the numbers with the reality of what's actually coming to slaughter. But to quickly summarize the report didn't reflect the kind of shrinking inventory that Bauer feels needs to be seen. He also doesn’t believe we can export our way out of this supply dilemma even though recent price rallies are betting we can.

What going on with African swine fever in Germany.

What's the word on forward profitability? 

Take a listen as Bauer walks us through all that. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The autumn season is knocking on the door and officially gets started Sept. 22, just before the third quarter hogs and pigs report next Thursday.

In this segment of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Provimi senior market analyst David Bauer tells us what to expect in that report, including a reduced breeding herd. As he points out, USDA’s weekly sow harvest continues to run strong and this has been the catalyst to discussions what this will mean for the sow herd come Sept. 24. 

Bauer notes that the June report alerted us that fall farrowing intention decisions made through spring and summer when values were in the low, mid and upper $40 range, were to farrow 5% less this fall. Over the past several weeks conversations put estimates either side of 200,000 fewer sows than last year at this time. If that 200,000 drop were to happen, it would be down about a 100,000 sows, or 1.5% from last quarter. Many of these decisions were made during times of dismal futures and dismal financial the conditions, and although the conditions haven't changed, what will the recent rally and hog future values do to the sentiment as we come into the report? Take a listen. Bauer explains.

A quick note on African swine fever in Germany. It was reported that four wild boar carcasses were found and one live pig shot that all tested positive. The first case found was of a female wild boar, which is significant. Female typically run in groups consist of three to four females and all their piglets. The significance here is that the dead female likely had contact with several pigs, and that is of concern when realizing that ASF is spread through contact with other pigs. Males typically lead more isolated lives and present less of the spread risk.

On pork exports this week, net weekly sales were a very large 50,600 metric tons, 68% over last week and 41% over the four-week average. Per the chart, Bauer is calling it the third largest weekly sale this year. What’s the word on profitability? Bauer fills us in. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com