dave bauer

The news just can't get any more provocative, says Provimi senior economist David Bauer in this week’s episode. As he points out, it is a time of flocks of black swans - a human virus that has changed the global economy and how we live our daily lives, fires running through at least a dozen western states and we learned that derecho is just another name for a hurricane. But all of this pales to the historic significance of this fateful day in history from just 19 years ago when planes were hijacked and flown into the twin towers of the World Trade Center. We should never forget. 

Pork exports saw 30,200 metric tons on a weekly basis this week, that was down 44% versus last week, but just 3% below the four-week average. Shipments were 33,600 metric tons, up 3% versus last week and the four-week average. Bauer circles back too to comment on the monthly exports from last week’s podcast for a bit more discussion there. What else is making the news this week? Bauer fills us in and takes a look at what’s ahead. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

David Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi says don't look now, but since the $47.87 low on July 31, October hog futures have rallied more than $11, or 25% in the past 24 sessions. Thursday's high of $59.40 is the highest high since May 5. Per his quote system, the 33,000 contracts traded on Thursday were a life-of-contract high volume trade. 

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Bauer also talks trade and China. How do we correct a shortfall and purchases that made in a trade agreement? Well, we put on our buying shoes and get to work, he says. 

Unfortunately, this week's U.S. monthly pork export report put July's pork sales to China at the lowest total for any month of 2020 thus far. But year to date, U.S. pork muscle cut exports to China of 261 metric tons over last year and 27% over that of 2018 year to date. The price of pork in China in the last week of August climbed to the highest price so far in 2020, yet was still 5% below the record in the last week of October in the fall of 2019. What’s ahead for China and trade overall? Bauer shares his thoughts. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Today’s markets are dealing with many varied and unforeseen influences, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi.

For example, Bauer points out that back in the spring, when COVID was first unfolding, the fear of the unknown put the weekly average cutout price in a three-week tailspin, down 32%. Then as hoarding became a thing, there came a 115% rally in just five weeks. Over the next seven weeks when people stopped hoarding toilet paper and meat long enough to realize how unwarranted their actions had been, the cutout fell to a secondary low. Current trends, as we know them, definitely for 2020, provide no predictive value when it comes to predicting what’s ahead. In fact, Bauer says as you're comparing to prior years, don't use 2020 as part of an average. This is similar to when we would leave 2014 out of an average because it was such an outlier. 

Speaking of trends, weekly pork exports this past week are starting to reflect a trend, but it's not a favorable trend, says Bauer. Net pork sales on Thursday, were only 10,500 metric tons, down 66% from last week and down 70% versus the four-week average. Mexico took 84% of that total. The biggest concern of this trend that's building, he notes, is the lack of China purchases over the past couple of weeks. In this episode, Bauer explains what’s behind all of that.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com
 

The U.S. slaughter industry is centuries old and has taken decades to get where it is today. Still, claims against the industry over the past year have some questioning whether it should be dismantled.

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, provides his perspective on the slaughter sector and why he believe during the time of crisis, like the industry has been in, is not when such ideas should be put in motion. 

So maybe it's not time to destroy the house they built just yet, but rather figure out how it can be more efficient and effective, says Bauer. 

As an industry he noted, we've come to rely just as heavily, perhaps even more so on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly pork exports. Bauer raise the discussion point of who has controlled that in the past year. Yep, China. 

That said, China's rate of importing commodities is slowing as the global COVID resurgence has led China to impose greater limitations on import testing. So what’s the market look like and what’s ahead, Bauer walks us through his thinking. In doing so, he notes that the U.S. cannot rely on exports alone to get it out of the current supply issue. Disrupting plants won't work either. Nobody wants to hear it, but the solution would be to reduce production, says Bauer.

And what's the word on forward profitability? Well, strong pork export trends through July translated into strength in cash hogs, pork products and futures contracts, providing measurable improvement in margin. But again, to be clear, Bauer points out that those price improvements merely helped to reduce losses, not put producers in the black, 

The most positive note, he said, is that weights have now fallen to 208 to 210 lb. per carcass. What does that all mean? Take a listen. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The COVID quarter, one of the worst quarters in global history, ends today and initial ideas are that second quarter GDP is estimated to have fallen by 32.9%, according to Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer. The U.S. also had the largest one-day sale of corn ever this past week to China at 1.9 metric tons, or approximately 76 million bushel. Pork exports sales this week were just under 40,000 metric tons, up 24% over last week and up 12% versus the four-week average. Of course, China led those purchases with 45% of the total, followed by Mexico, taking 40%. For the first time in a few weeks, actual shipments did slow down 12% versus last week and 3% below the prior four-week average, but still a strong number of 31,500 metric tons.

On the topic of slaughter plants, it was a tough start to the week. Mechanical and labor issues reduce the estimated kill by 22,000 head on Monday. But the rest of this week found its stride and the estimate for a 2.5 plus million head kill is again expected. Kill floors are maintaining a weekly run of roughly 93% of capacity, but now processing floors need to get out of the mid to upper 80% range and up to match the kill floor run rates. The challenge to get employees back to work are real and plants are doing all they can to create safe work environments. 

And what's the word on forward profitability? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this week’s episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights for the week and lists some of the things to think about as we prepare for next week.

This has been a good week with hog market trends again finding some solid traction, and that traction has provided a bit of a tailwind, says Bauer. He believes the market has some momentum to look forward to in the next week. 

In the markets this week, USDA’s weekly new pork sales were reported at 31,800 metric tons, down 17% versus last week and down 4% versus the four-week average. These sales fell short of expectations. As based on the strength seen in hams over the past several days, Bauer says expectations were not for this 17% drop. 

Still, Bauer says not to worry. Think of it this way. This just means that even though we didn't see the big ham sales for export, we've obviously had some strong domestic demand to drive hams higher. 

This could be one of the best weeks we've seen for price strength in a long time, and what does this all translates into on the topic of forward profitability? Bauer says when he plugs the $2.25/cwt. CME index gains into the big flash model, this has improved nearby profitability by $4.50 cents/head. Yes, this still generates losses of $20 to $40 per head, depending on the market are producers connected to, but in these challenging times, reducing loss, this is a welcome site, he says.

Bauer notes that this improvement is a direct result of the pickup in demand and is reflected in the bull spreads. As long as this nearby demand driven strength continues, he believes we can continue to improve the forward outlook. Still this isn't without some very large challenges ahead. Even with those challenges, Bauer remains optimistic about what’s ahead. Take a listen. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Hog plants have put together a second week in a row of kills over 2.5 million head, hanging around that 92% of capacity level, while processing utilization follows in the mid 80% range. Cash hog and pork product trends have stabilized and hog futures have made a respectable stand and at the very least have created a short-term technical bottom through a 13-session, 13% rally off recent lows, according to Dave Bauer, market analyst with Provimi.

In this episode, he notes that USDA pork exports sales of 38,500 metric tons were up 22% versus last week, and up 16% versus the four-week average. Mexico led the purchase party with 10,100 metric tons, or 26%, followed by China with 8,000 metric tons, or 21% of the total. China led weekly shipments category taking 42%, or 12,300 metric tons of the total 29,300 metric tons shipped.

Just as the county fair goes hand in hand with hot summer days, weather watching and pollination season are coming fast. So even with daily export sales of corn to China reaching record levels, a moderating weather pattern and timely rains have dampened the recent 12% rally in corn and 8% rally in beans. But don't worry, the weather can change quickly, says Bauer.

On the topic of forward profitability, anytime we see values improve, as we have this past week, it helps to improve the forward outlook. However, in these challenging times, maybe the best producers can hope for in the short term is to talk about focusing on reducing losses rather than receiving profits. When we see the bull spreads take hold like they have this week where the lead contract August hogs is now premium to the second contract October by a $1.50 to a $1.80, this is a good sign. Still, Bauer believe the journey to profitability will be long, and we have a backlog of market ready hogs to get through before we can think about positive returns.

“The one encouraging thing that I've heard this week is that there are some small signs of slowing down production that I'm starting to see along the way. Don't misunderstand we will still have strong numbers and need to see slaughter and processing run at full capacity, whatever that is. But if we have started reducing placements, even just slightly over time, this will offer some needed relief on fall inventories. These are simply some early signs and not to be construed as bullish this time,” says Bauer.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

We start this week with a message of unity and urging to stay strong, America. We will get through these challenging times, says Feedstuffs Precision Pork host and Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer.

In the news this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly export report. Bauer walks us through that and what it all means. 

Also addressed are daily slaughter rates, which have reached as much as 92% of capacity, resulting in a couple of weeks of 2.59 million and 2.62 5 million head kills. Bauer explains that packer run rates are no longer the headline story. Yes, they are still key, but the focus now turns to processing and food service capacity. “It's now their turn to drive supply chain recovery, and the resulting demand will drive price recovery,” says Bauer.

Slaughter may be back at 92% of daily capacity but it has been at a cost to product values. The supply chain is like a multidimensional puzzle and run rates are but one dimension of that puzzle, says Bauer.

On the topic of profitability, the forward curve is holding value and on Thursday even made some technical moves higher. It still is dependent on when we can reduce the backlog of market animals created by disrupted supply chain per USDA, says Bauer.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Thursday kicked off with net pork sales of 24,100 metric tons down 38% versus last week and up 3% versus the four-week average. Mexico, again led with 8,100 metric tons, or 33% of the total, followed by China with 4,500 metric tons, or 19%. Dave Bauer, market analyst with Provimi, leads off this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork with a look at the week’s sales activity. As he does, each week, Bauer recaps some pork industry and market highlights and lists some of the things to think about for next week. 

Thursday also brought the U.S. Department of Agriculture quarterly hogs and pigs report. Leading up to the report comments were suggesting this was one of the most anticipated reports in years, but after seeing the report, Bauer says he was a little disappointed in the results. He explains why. 

Finally, China has some new COVID-19 restrictions on imports that are getting some attention and causing some concern. Take a listen to find out more.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com
 

In addition to what’s ahead for the hog industry, Dave Bauer, market analyst for Provimi, takes a look back over the past couple of years. It has been a time when the world's largest producer and consumer of pork lost over half of its swine herd to a novel animal disease and when global trade flows were disrupted as two of the world's largest economies battled for high ground in a high stakes trade war. On top of it all came a global pandemic, challenging normalcy in all aspects of our lives.

The fallout from just one of these events would be enough to disrupt the global economy for months or even years, but we've taken the impact from all of it full on. Bauer talks about why and how we will come out on the other side stronger than we went in.

As Bauer points out, although it's not easy to look past all the negatives, there are positives happening. Like through all this, China has increased its 2020 year-to-date combined imports of U.S. pork muscle cuts and pork variety meats by 327% over last year. The top 10 destinations for pork and pork variety meat exports have increased by 44% over last year and total pork exports to all destinations have increased by 38% in the first six months of the year. This type of demand is testament that North American pork remains the safest and highest quality in the world.

Still, even with these great trade numbers, the industry has been thrown into a tailspin and profitability. Bauer talks about why that is and what can be expected in the days ahead.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com
 

In this week's episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, market analyst Dave Bauer of Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights and lists some of the things to think about in preparation for next week. 

Memorial Day Weekend. It is when summer officially kicks off. Thank you to all of those fallen soldiers ahead of us. To all current veterans, active service men and women and healthcare workers and first responders, all the best. To everyone else, be safe and eat gobs of pork this weekend. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly cold storage report May 21. Over the past three years, there has typically been an average 4.5% built in the April over March inventory. Inventory supply chain disruption at the plant production level has simply restricted inventory from building at a time when both domestic and export drivers are competing for those limited supplies. This is adding an interesting twist to the market, according to Bauer.

Weekly pork exports took an alternative tone this past week as net pork sales were actually negative, reflecting a drop of 5,800 metric tons. This is what happens when the U.S. wholesale pork market adds 112% in value over four weeks. The run from $53 to $115/cwt. really changed the dynamic of trade and in this week's report, all the major players had cancellations listed in their net sales and shipments. Bauer explains what to expect in the coming week in terms of buying.

Daily harvest is growing and now running at about 80% of pre-code levels, but, as Bauer explains, the range in profitability is still $50 to $75 a head. What should you be thinking about for next week? Take a listen and get the scoop here.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com . Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success. 

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

In this week's episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, market analyst Dave Bauer of Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights and lists some of the things to think about in preparation for next week.

As Bauer explains, these days are filled with headlines and statistics that boggle the mind. We've gone from record employment to record unemployment in three months. In fact, the eating and drinking industry has lost more than three decades of jobs in the last two months. 

Speaking of the value put on employees that feed the needs of this consumer-driven society, Bauer says we all have come to realize just how important those employees are that keep chain lines running in the nation's packing plants. Although many of the pictures out there are likely used more for shock and awe, a day doesn't pass without seeing pictures of empty meat shelves. 

Pork packing plants are making great strides and what appear to be the right moves to ensure worker safety and confidence in the plant environment. With early estimates for a 239,000 head Saturday, kill weekly harvest is projected over 2 million head for the first time in five weeks. This would be a 17% increase over last week. But even with these gains in slaughter, the backlog of hogs is still growing based on the simple calculation of the difference in actual harvest versus that which was estimated in the March hogs and pigs report. 

Take a listen to find out what Bauer thinks lies ahead. What should you be thinking about for next week? We’ll explore that as well. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

These are difficult times for plant operators as they try their best to guess what numbers they might hit for a day. They are often finding themselves starting their day not knowing what kill numbers will look like and, for that matter, if enough workers will even show up to run their line, says Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer.

The run rates for this past week, and through this past Monday, started off down 9% from the previous Monday. Tuesday was up 7%, Wednesday up slightly over a 17% and Thursday was up 12.5%. With some other capacity estimated to come online Friday and Saturday, Bauer estimates this week’s kill would be a 15% increase over last week and a large step in the right direction for pork exports.

In this episode, we also take a look at this week’s double whammy for pork weekly exports. Weekly net exports of 47,500 metric tons fell 6% below that of last week and 1% below the four-week average. China's 40,200 metric tons was 85% of that total. What about the cutout? Bauer explains that as well. 

Estimated returns for today's market hogs based on returns to the CMI index sit around a $10 to $15 per head loss if producers can get them killed. Average profitability over the next 12 months has now risen to a loss of $10 per head, which is a great improvement from the monthly per head losses of $35 per head seen just a few weeks ago. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

We are watching and living yet another week of history being created as there's not just one industry being impacted by this growing economy, but we're seeing and living through changes in all aspects of business and all production industries. Also, changing is how we live as families, the way our kids go to school and more. These are all things that Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer explains in this week’s episode will likely be forever changed, including the ways we shop for prepare and consumer meals.

“The old cliche that one day we'll tell our grandchildren about this time has never been more true, and I also believe on the backside of this adversity, our grandkids will have a great new world to thrive in,” says Bauer.

On the hog side of things, the headlines have been changing by the hour regarding slaughter plant closings and re-openings. Bauer explains the best way to gauge the current situation is not through these closing but rather to look at actual slaughter numbers. He digs into that for us.

Likewise, pork exports continued their historic pace, which has helped the domestic market considerably. Bauer says hog industry leaders and allied professionals are doing a great job of working collectively through these difficult times and he explains why he believes a corner may have been turned this week. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at Dave_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.
 

In today’s episode, Provimi market analyst Dave Bauer explores this month’s cold storage report and weekly pork exports. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture brought us two reports this week that futures have now interpreted as positive price, all prices didn't reflect strong gains as producer prices were only up in a range of 1% to 5%. 

Strength in the pork cutout, Bauer says, is due to reduce chain speeds of roughly 25% to 30%. The resulting tightness in the pork output has increased competition for available pork supplies. Because these delays at the plant level have come just recently, the drawdown in March frozen supplies is simply strong exports and not likely supplies being pulled out of storage for current production decreases. At least, not just yet. What’s ahead for future and nearby profitability, Bauer explain. As, he notes, it takes a long time to turn an aircraft carrier.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well prepared. Provimi strives to provide the information you need to run a more precise pork system. If you have questions on this week's recap or want to discuss something I didn't cover, reach out and ASK DAVE at Dave_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

 

In this week’s episode, Dave Bauer, market analyst for Provimi, recaps some pork industry and market highlights as well as shares some things to think about going into the new week. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its weekly pork exports report showing a marketing year high totaling 55,900 metric tons. China again was the biggest buyer purchasing 71% of the total and its highest weekly bookings for the year. The real sauce to the weekly report was that weekly shipments were again strong at 39,200 metric tons, down 2.5% from year ago. China was again responsible for over 40% of those shipments. Bauer discusses what this means. 

He also looks at cash trends that supported futures a week ago but have fallen hard this week, putting a lid on the rally in June hog futures at 44% of the $30/cwt. drop of the past three weeks. As Bauer explains this is largely due to the backlog of pork that has occurred with the closing in the foodservice sector. Take a listen to find out where prices and the demand situation are headed. 

What should we be thinking about for next week? Bauer says it may well be a slowing of the production chain that could translate into a slowing of late phase performance in on-farm finishing units. 

Stay tune. These are unusual times and it will pay dividends to be well prepared, which is what Feedstuffs Precision Pork is all about, giving you the information you need to run a more precise pork system. 

For questions on this week's recap or to discuss other market questions, just ASK DAVE. 

As always: Plan today for tomorrow's success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.