market prices

Restricted beef production levels are having the desired effect. Pretty much every category is moving higher. Hopefully, after Labor Day, this market will settle down. Buy what you need now, next week will be more money. Chicken pricing is up on wings, breasts, and tenders. Chicken is still a good protein value, but buy what you need now. This market will continue to go up. For some good news, there are no new Avian Flu cases to report. Grains are moving down this week and things are looking okay there. Pork bellies continue to drop with better pricing on the way. Butts and ribs are still a great value.

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Beef production continued with another light week which keeps product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. We could see a change in this after Labor Day. It's a buy-what-you-need situation, but you may find a deal out there. For chicken, it's another week of pricing moving higher on wings, breasts, and tenders. Even with increased prices, chicken is still a great protein value. No new Avian Flu cases were reported this week. It was a good week for grain markets, as all are moving lower. Pork bellies closed lower this week and it looks like we have a good bit more movement lower. Wait to buy bacon if you can.

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Poultry prices continue to rise on all cuts and categories in the chicken world. Demand for fresh chicken is increasing as well. There is still value here but look for continued increases in chicken. For the third week in a row, one new Avian Flu report from the same county in NY affects 800 birds. Beef production continues lower keeping any price reductions from happening during this season of weak demand. Better weather forecasts and rain have helped corn to close lower this week. Soy has stabilized and wheat is moving down. Pretty much the whole pork complex is moving lower and will probably continue that way for the next few weeks. Buy what you need, but waiting should save you money. Dairy has finally stopped the hard and fast increases from the last few weeks.

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Hot, summer weather is slowing down production on beef and chicken, making prices inch higher in most circumstances. There are not many bargains to be had in beef, but waiting to buy will cost you money. Chicken is still a good value in protein, but we are seeing a steady move higher. Another Avian Flu report was made in the same county in New York with 490 more birds infected. Still the only new cases since May, but something to keep an eye on. Corn is down from last week, and soy is finally seeing an end to the several weeks' climb. Wheat is holding steady. Pork bellies closed just a dollar up from last week at $215. Butts continue to decline, and loins and ribs continue to offer real value. Dairy markets are up again this week, but are hopefully losing a bit of steam.

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Tight supplies and inflated prices in beef will be an ongoing issue. For next week, a few lower middle meats, again not big moves but moving lower. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding up. One more week of buy what you need, but next week should see better pricing. Chicken remains the value in proteins., with strong production numbers and prices just inching up. Sadly, on Tuesday we had the first reported Avian Flu case since May 18th. 660 birds in New York. There is a lot of action in grains with tension in Russia and Ukraine, drought concerns, and prices on everything moving higher. Bellies closed at $214, butts continue lower, and ribs and loins are a great deal. Dairy markets are moving up like a rocket.

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The beef market continues to slowly move lower on middle meats, thin meats, chucks, and rounds. Ground beef holds steady. Buy product if you need it, but waiting a week may save you money. Chicken production continues strong and prices are moving higher in wings and breasts. Tenders are moving a little lower. We have gone over two months with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Grains are seeing a ton of action with prices going up on everything. Pork bellies are up $35 from last week. Butts are moving lower and loins are just a little higher but still a great value. The dairy market continues to rise with more upside to come.

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Beef harvest declined to 625K head last week, compared to the prior week’s 642K head.  Year-to-date production is running about 5% below last year making a pretty tight market for available product. It's a good time to buy what you need but I would not be extending beyond that.  Production continues pretty strong keeping chicken well supplied. We should see this pattern continue. As for Avian Flu – I have nothing to say other than great news of another week with no new cases reported. Corn closed at $6.44 up from last week’s $6.37. Soy Oil is moving up just a bit, we had our lowest market in over three years last week, so moving up just a bit.  Wheat markets continue in turmoil, up down, and all around. Pork bellies closed at $77, up from last week's $72. Bacon continues to be a great buy. Butts are continuing higher with a strong export demand push. And finally, barrel has no change, block is down 12 – seeing our lowest block price since May of 2020 – and butter is up 2.

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Reduced harvest numbers continue for beef, about 5% lower than last year. Beef pricing is elevated and will most likely stay that way. Wings will be the item for Memorial Day as they continue lower. Tenders remain the premium item in chicken. Only one new case reported this week for Avian Flu. Pork bellies are down $10 from last week and production is up. Smoked or grilled pork is also a great option for Memorial Day. 

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Beef production is creeping up as we approach Spring. Middle meats are holding steady, but the next move will most likely be higher. Chucks and rounds should move lower, while thin cuts will steadily increase. Beef is not the bargain buy right now, but it should hold steady for a week or so. Chicken wings are on the decline again. Strong production numbers continue. Breasts and tenders continue to slowly rise. Nine new cases of Avian flu were reported last week affecting 19,000 birds, which brings the total to 58.6 million. Corn is up from last week, soy oil inched lower, and flour is steady to lower. Pork is up from last week just a bit, but pricing is still really favorable.

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Beef production is dropping with intentions to tighten the supply. The winter storm moving through the Midwest has prices moving up daily. Don't overreact, but buy what you need now. Chicken prices seem to have stalled for a moment and production numbers are still very strong making chicken a great value. Not much is happening in corn, soy oil is moving up a bit, and there isn't much going on with wheat. Pork pricing is moving higher slightly, but pork remains a great value. Feature pork! Dairy is looking good, but spring could bring a new push in pricing. 

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Beef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior.  Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision.  Even with heavy production this market is moving higher.  Chuck Rolls are oversold and demanding strong premiums.  The rest of the chuck complex is moving higher as well.  Rounds seem to be pretty well balanced and with ground beef are holding steady and at reasonable price levels.  Tenderloins and ribeyes are already getting into holiday pricing levels though I’m hearing we won’t see too much more upside to these cuts but no bargains to be had either.  Strips are still the value in middle meats but they are moving a bit higher as well.  This is the time of year where buying sooner is better than waiting, you will pay more money later.  We should have this market on a steady increase right into early December. 

Episode Sources
http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.agfax.com/2022/10/24/mississippi-river-barge-traffic-continued-to-struggle-as-active-and-intensive-discussions-occur-on-black-sea-export-deal/

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The Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse.  Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week.  The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market.  Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week.  Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers.  Now the weekly bird flu numbers.  18 new reports since last week.  Total birds removed from the food chain 168K, mostly turkeys.   total so far for the year, 47.7 million head.  Turkey shortages will be with us well into 2023.
 
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.barchart.com/

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

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Beef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the total number of birds removed from the food supply to 47.1 million. Most new cases are turkeys, making this holiday season pretty tight with supply. For grains, corn is down from last week, soy oil is down, and wheat is holding steady. Pork continues to be a good value, with pricing very similar to last week. Also a great menu feature. For dairy, barrel is up three, block is up two, and butter is up seven, a new record high.

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Happy Episode 100!

This year’s avian flu continues to spread.  Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds,  most of them  turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus.  We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall.   I’ve nothing encouraging to say about turkey other than if you have, value it, and if you can buy it, do.  Looking at chicken and it is the same message the last couple weeks.  Wings are steady, and still a good value, boneless breasts and tenders continue to move lower.  Production continues to creep higher every week and with weekly hatch rates now consistently over 80% more product continues into the market.  Expect chicken to continue to be a good value moving into fall. 

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This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up.  With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again.  This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million.

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Episode Sources
https://www.science.org/content/article/we-re-nervous-deadly-bird-flu-may-be-north-america-stay

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

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A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%.  That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%.  These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle.
 
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations

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Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend.  BUT – it is a trend.  This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys.  Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year.  Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year.  Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher.  So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply.  Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing.   
Episode Sources:
https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/113248-bacon-report-2022-all-sizzle-no-fizzle?oly_enc_id=9442E4975623E5T

https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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Grains  Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35.  Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping.  There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand.  Something I will be watching.  Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming.  The soy harvest could be similarly affected  by weather as corn.  Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind.  International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady. 

Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

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First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother! 

On Tuesday bellies dropped $48 and with yesterday’s close at $144 has dropped $56 since last week’s close of $200.  Elevated cold storage numbers, hows that for a turn around from last year…  plus expected increasing production as the weather cools and packers are dealing with the classic issue, sell or smell it.  This is definitely a buying time.  I don’t know how long we will see this market but I’m betting we’ve got a few weeks to secure good value product.  The rest of the pork complex is following the lead of bellies but not to the same dramatic drops.  Pork will be a good value for the next few weeks, at least. 

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. 

Episode Sources:

https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/hog-production/pork-bellies-plummet-drag-cutout-lower?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGGc6JmbpYmadAuAkEf3rK-9Vq1C43IjB0b0ldyqyDt1ER-o9RzCmVhdWz6J8POq7hzWzzXhd9e9i8krghUHbURqs-LBNDT7eFx9vCcpT-0HJvYrHc

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Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242.  Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209.  This is expensive territory for bacon.  If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.

Episode Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.barchart.com/

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