provimi

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

In typical years, the January-February period is like trudging through the forest looking for something to take hold of. This year, however, has been more like ascending to a summit peak. The current market is definitely a market on the move! Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Let’s talk commodity cycles. Are we setting up for entry into a new commodity super cycle? Bauer gives us some thoughts to ponder. Lots to think, he says, as so many waves of change continue to converge.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

Does the Earth feel like it just may be tipping a bit? Well it just may be says Bauer because of a large migration happening on the opposite side of the world. Starting today and through the 17th of the month, the Chinese people are celebrating the year of the ox and it is historically when 1.4 billion people travel home and spend time with family. That also means news out of China will be at a stand still until everyone returns to work in a couple of weeks. For global markets that means essentially a standstill until the Chinese return to back to work. What might this mean for the hog industry? What too is going on with rogue virus strains of African swine fever in the Chinese market? Bauer shares his insight.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

As that iconic song goes: you have to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run. Bauer explains there is a group of producers in China right now running away from the hand they have been dealt. Last week 17% of market hogs in China weighed in at about 198 lb. Normal weights have been 286 lb., which means they are leaving 88 lb. of opportunity on that train bound for nowhere. That’s a lost opportunity of $200 per pig.

An indication that the disease pressure in China is severe right now? Or perhaps pressure from the media’s disclosure of illegal vaccine use? Bauer provides his thoughts.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we enter the new year.

What could China’s new testing protocols on imported cold-chain items mean for pork coming into that country? Bauer says among other things it  certainly could slow down shipping and clearance times. Even though the World Health Organization does not support China’s claims of COVID on cold-processed items, China continues to test. 

 What about China’s sow herd? Bauer says it’s headed upward according to reports. Where is China at in it's rebuild? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for a new year.

There still a large book of 2020 purchases to be shipped to China but those will likely be rolled into the new year rather than canceled, say Bauer. There was a speed bump on the slaughter side of things this past week as the Columbus Junction pork plant ran into some mechanical issues and diverted hogs to other plants. What has that done to slaughter numbers and what’s been the market impact? What will the upcoming holidays mean for weekly totals? Take a listen.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers some hog market perspective and market highlights for the week as well as provides things to think about as we prepare for next week. 

Hog slaughter over the past five weeks has averaged 2.645 million head, down approximately 1.5% over the past couple of weeks, likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Since the Sept. 1st survey of the hogs and pigs estimates, slaughter has run below the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate, down about 0.05% from last year’s slaughter pace. Now over the next eight weeks and represented by the 50 to 119 lb. estimate from the report, slaughter will likely average 3.5% below last year, or an average of 2.5 million head per week. Taking out the Christmas and New Year holiday weeks, that average moves up to about 2.625 million head. Either way, Bauer said, we are also watching weights increase quickly over the past couple of weeks and we'll have plenty of hogs. The concern will now be can we continue to processing and clear that pork. New pork sales were up 66% last week to 31,300 metric tons, which is up 6% versus the four-week average. Mexico led with 13,000 metric tons of that, or 41%, with China following with 24%, or 7,400 metric tons. 2021 sales of 4,200 metric tons were led by China with 1,400 metric tons or 33% of that total. What’s ahead for future shipments? Bauer explains. 

What too is ahead for profitability? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

In this special episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, we explore the benefits and risks associated with the use of corn distillers dried grains (DDGS) in pig diets.

Feedstuffs editor Sarah Muirhead talks with  Erin Holmes, technical swine nutritionist with Provimi, and Don Giesting, micro nutrition innovation lead for Provimi, about the economics of feeding corn DDGS and what can be done to minimize the risk of mycotoxin contamination and its negative influence on performance and the bottom line. Take a listen.

Use this link to sign up for Provimi’s Mycotoxin Minutes: http://cloud.info.cargill.com/SignUp_For_Mycotoxin_Minutes

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork each week on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com
 

This week’s hog market brought an accumulated slaughter after the first four days that was the strongest opening for any week since the big kills back in March, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi.

If this average is added to this Saturday's estimate of 272,000 head, this week's killed could land at 2.73 million head, 1.5% over last week and 1% over last year. In recent months, this week would be second only to the 2.73 million head over four weeks ago.

Bauer noted that if this kill holds up for the week, chain speed would now be just 1.5% below the stated weekly capacity of 2.767 million head. This is a great milestone for the packer and the efforts of management and the labor force should be applauded. 

Net new pork sales this week were up 46% over last week and up 18% versus the four-week average. Mexico, once again led with 35% of the total followed by China at 24.5%. New 2021 sales of 800 metric tons suggest that maybe last week 7,000 metric ton sale may have been a blip on the map, but hopefully we can see bigger 2021 sales start to be commonplace, said Bauer.

What’s ahead for producer profit margins? What influence might the grain market have? Is $9.50 corn ahead? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The weather this year has been out of the ordinary, to put it mildly. That means the potential for molds and mycotoxins this fall in places like Iowa and Nebraska is quite real. As a feed manufacturer or livestock producer, what do you need to know and be on the lookout for? Likewise, what can you do to manage the overall mycotoxin risk to your operation and your herd.

In this special episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Feedstuffs editor Sarah Muirhead talks with Don Geisting and Matt Wolfe about these important topics. Geisting is micronutrition innovation lead and Wolfe is strategic account manager – swine. Both are with Provimi, a Cargill company. Take a listen.

Use this link to sign up for Provimi’s Mycotoxin Minutes: http://cloud.info.cargill.com/SignUp_For_Mycotoxin_Minutes

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork each week on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

 

This has been a week of strong kills, logging another day on Tuesday at 492,000 head. Packers continue to have high hopes each day, aiming for those 2.7 million head weekly kills. Still, there are some feelings that COVID fears may be creating concerns to labor again, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi. This latest resurgence of COVID cases in rural America, even though more in the non-processing community, doesn't keep plant workers from being concerned about being around crowds. 

Over the past three Fridays, kills have averaged 487,000 head and approximately 260,000 head over the past three Saturdays. With those kinds of numbers this week, we would have a chance at 2.7 million head killed. That is, of course, if Thursdays 492,000 head estimate stands and isn't adjusted lower. Weekly runs of 2.7 million head seem to be getting harder to achieve, says Bauer.

Producer weights have plateaued over the past couple of weeks, around 214 lb. and packer weights have backed off a pound or so. There has been an abrupt correction to prices. Depending on how the cutout finishes, the week will dictate packer appetite for market hogs come Monday. Pork exports on Thursday, put net 2020 sales at 29,000 metric tons with 2021 new sales of 7,000 metric tons, for a combined 35,000 metric tons of new forward sales. Bauer says it been a great week, for sure, and all in the absence of China only taking 2,500 metric tons of pork. What can we expect from China in the near term? What’s ahead in terms of profitability for producers? Bauer gives his thoughts in this latest episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Pork packers this week passed another milestone by reaching a daily kill of 492,000 head on both Wednesday and Thursday. But it takes a big Saturday kill to make a run at a weekly number over 2.7 million head, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi, in this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork.

Although a couple of weeks ago, a 289,000 head kill on Saturday produced that 2.73 million head weekly run, Bauer notes that is difficult to sustain. As Steve Meyer said on this week’s Global Hog Industry Virtual Conference, if the packer runs his labor force too hard on Saturday, they aren't going to show up on Monday. So, the 96% capacity that the packers are pounding out each week might be close to the new normal.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also released the September cold storage report this week, and instead of the three-year average of 2.5% growth in the August to September frozen pork supplies this year, we just saw a 0.25% increase. It would have been a 2% reduction, but USDA went back and revised downward the August inventory by 2.25% in the process. Speaking of revisions, USDA also revised August hams lower, but it wasn't due to fewer bone-in hams being processed. Bone-in hams were actually revised slightly higher, but the boneless hams were revised lower by 2.75%, suggesting potentially better rather than a lack of inventory.

Talk from Chinese officials that fourth quarter pork production will be up 30% over last year, just in time for their upcoming lunar new year holiday, may be something to keep an eye on.

What’s all this mean for profitability? Bauer explains. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, offers his perspective on this week's hog market and recaps the week’s highlights. He also lists some of the things to think about as you prepare for the week ahead. 

For the second week in a row, barring any unforeseen issues on Friday or Saturday, it will put together another solid six days of slaughter this week reaching near the 2.7 million head level. Once again, the first four days of the week of average an impressive 489,000 head, but to finish out the week, Friday's estimate sits at 482,000 head. Saturday's estimated run, however, started earlier in the week at 236,000 head and plans as a Friday morning have now ramped up to 261,000 landing, right at the 2.7 million head for the week, just 1.1% below last week's 2.73 million head. This is a respectable run and depending how you look at it can be 98% or 96% of normal.

This week's 2.7 million head kill will be 98% of the stated pre-COVID environment capacity of 2.767 million head, or roughly 96% of the postcode environment average intentions of 2.65 million head. So the 2.7 million estimate for this week reflects the packer pushing pretty hard and understandably so as there stated packer margins, if using the simple cutout minus CMI index projection, estimated $41 per head margin. This compares to the three-year average for this period of $26 per head. What’s ahead for producers in terms of margin and profitability? Bauer let’s us know.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi, is back with us to offer some market perspective and recap some pork industry and market highlights. He also lists some of the things to think about as we prepare for next week. 

Germany continues to find new cases of African swine fever in wild boar in its Eastern state of Brandenburg. In China, people are crowding into buses, trains and even using air travel to visit family for the fall festival season. Port authorities there continue to search for any signs of COVID on imported packaging and work to keep track of COVID cases and plants that export fresh and prepared food items to them. 

Slaughter plants in the U.S., even though they have been able to put together a few daily runs in the 485,000 head range, still have days where they fall 5,000 to 15,000 head short of a day's expectations. Recent data has bumped the daily kill capacity from 507,000 to 512,000 head but putting a full week together in this new post COVID environment is still full of challenges. Weekly kills of 2.6 million head seem to be the norm and run about 96% of pre COVID pace.

And then there's the quarterly grain stocks report that shocked everyone with its drop and available grain stocks for both corn and beans, providing another report that has everyone's scratching their heads. 

So what do these things mean for hog producers? What does the margin profile look like? Bauer fills us in. Take a listen. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report has been a mainstay for the hog industry for decades. Right now, though, it has never seemed more confusing, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi. 

Per the inventory results this quarter, the number of hogs that are supposed to be showing up at slaughterhouses, 9.8% over last year, don't seem to be matching up with what's actually showing up. And yes, producers have performed what one analyst has called magic and erased as many as 1 million pigs from our memories. This is where the revisions that USDA typically applies to past quarterly reports could help to perform the magic of now syncing up the numbers with the reality of what's actually coming to slaughter. But to quickly summarize the report didn't reflect the kind of shrinking inventory that Bauer feels needs to be seen. He also doesn’t believe we can export our way out of this supply dilemma even though recent price rallies are betting we can.

What going on with African swine fever in Germany.

What's the word on forward profitability? 

Take a listen as Bauer walks us through all that. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

The autumn season is knocking on the door and officially gets started Sept. 22, just before the third quarter hogs and pigs report next Thursday.

In this segment of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Provimi senior market analyst David Bauer tells us what to expect in that report, including a reduced breeding herd. As he points out, USDA’s weekly sow harvest continues to run strong and this has been the catalyst to discussions what this will mean for the sow herd come Sept. 24. 

Bauer notes that the June report alerted us that fall farrowing intention decisions made through spring and summer when values were in the low, mid and upper $40 range, were to farrow 5% less this fall. Over the past several weeks conversations put estimates either side of 200,000 fewer sows than last year at this time. If that 200,000 drop were to happen, it would be down about a 100,000 sows, or 1.5% from last quarter. Many of these decisions were made during times of dismal futures and dismal financial the conditions, and although the conditions haven't changed, what will the recent rally and hog future values do to the sentiment as we come into the report? Take a listen. Bauer explains.

A quick note on African swine fever in Germany. It was reported that four wild boar carcasses were found and one live pig shot that all tested positive. The first case found was of a female wild boar, which is significant. Female typically run in groups consist of three to four females and all their piglets. The significance here is that the dead female likely had contact with several pigs, and that is of concern when realizing that ASF is spread through contact with other pigs. Males typically lead more isolated lives and present less of the spread risk.

On pork exports this week, net weekly sales were a very large 50,600 metric tons, 68% over last week and 41% over the four-week average. Per the chart, Bauer is calling it the third largest weekly sale this year. What’s the word on profitability? Bauer fills us in. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

Hitting the side of the bin with a mallet to see how full it is? There just may be a better way.

In this special episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Feedstuffs editor Sarah Muirhead talks with Joel Dekkers of Cargill Animal Nutrition’s digital business and George Slater of Belstra Milling Company in DeMotte, Ind., about bin monitoring technology. For pork producers and feed manufacturers, it is technology that can mean a savings in labor, increased animal performance and an improved bottom line. Take a listen and to find out how best to evaluate if bin monitoring technology is right for you operation and how to go about evaluating the various options.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com.

 

The news just can't get any more provocative, says Provimi senior economist David Bauer in this week’s episode. As he points out, it is a time of flocks of black swans - a human virus that has changed the global economy and how we live our daily lives, fires running through at least a dozen western states and we learned that derecho is just another name for a hurricane. But all of this pales to the historic significance of this fateful day in history from just 19 years ago when planes were hijacked and flown into the twin towers of the World Trade Center. We should never forget. 

Pork exports saw 30,200 metric tons on a weekly basis this week, that was down 44% versus last week, but just 3% below the four-week average. Shipments were 33,600 metric tons, up 3% versus last week and the four-week average. Bauer circles back too to comment on the monthly exports from last week’s podcast for a bit more discussion there. What else is making the news this week? Bauer fills us in and takes a look at what’s ahead. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

David Bauer, senior market analyst with Provimi says don't look now, but since the $47.87 low on July 31, October hog futures have rallied more than $11, or 25% in the past 24 sessions. Thursday's high of $59.40 is the highest high since May 5. Per his quote system, the 33,000 contracts traded on Thursday were a life-of-contract high volume trade. 

In this episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Bauer also talks trade and China. How do we correct a shortfall and purchases that made in a trade agreement? Well, we put on our buying shoes and get to work, he says. 

Unfortunately, this week's U.S. monthly pork export report put July's pork sales to China at the lowest total for any month of 2020 thus far. But year to date, U.S. pork muscle cut exports to China of 261 metric tons over last year and 27% over that of 2018 year to date. The price of pork in China in the last week of August climbed to the highest price so far in 2020, yet was still 5% below the record in the last week of October in the fall of 2019. What’s ahead for China and trade overall? Bauer shares his thoughts. 

As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com

These days there is an election being held every day on the trading floor, says senior market analyst David Bauer of Provimi. In this week’s episode of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Bauer uses the recent post office situation as the perfect example of what he means by this. Many have been sowing the seeds that the U.S. postal service slowdowns were actual actions taken that have created dire problems. Others have said it was constructed election year propaganda aimed at selling a message in hopes of gaining emotional support for an agenda. 

It is the same thing going on each day in our ag futures markets, says Bauer. In the grains industry, depending on whether you're a livestock feeder or a grain farmer and depending on the radio station or TV show that you listen to, the messages being sent by media outlets can easily play on the emotions of the audience. Knowing this, media looks to create the message that plays on that emotion. This is nothing new. But in times like these, Bauer cautions that such messages can easily get in the way of reality. The point to be made, he says is to is understand where information is coming from in these times of making risk management decisions. Realize that an election can be considered risk management. 

When making production sales decisions and input purchase decisions, make sure you step back from the emotion, look at the entire picture and not get caught up in the contrived emotion of weather scares and crop conditions. Take the emotion out of it. It is late August and crops biologically die at this time of year. Has weather impacted crop condition, crop progress and yields? Absolutely. Are massive sales to China good? Absolutely. But remember it is China and we've been through these emotional runs before and they don't always end well, notes Bauer. 

Situations like COVID, the hurricanes and others disaster in the past couple of weeks are doubling down the political pressures of bailouts and finger pointing. Bauer says he has heard it said that geopolitical risks can be more damaging than wars and embargoes. So, when making risk management decisions always step back and understand why you're making the decision in the first place and always ask yourself if your decision is based on emotion or is it in the best interest of your business? Are you being reactive or are you working to be proactive? Or put another way, are you being margin focused or market focused? 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.

Follow Feedstuffs Precision Pork on your favorite podcast platform or find it on www.Feedstuffs.com and www.NationalHogFarmer.com